Quick Analysis: With Pita Gone, What Happens Next?

[Flory]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

Don’t think MFP was preparing to win. I am sure that were surprised with the election outcome. Lots of lesson learnt which will served them well in the next election. 

More than that, they were able to promise the moon and more because they knew there was no chance they would be allowed to govern under the present constitution and power structure.

[bradiston]

7 hours ago, shortstop2 said:

The Senate could just block the original coalition with a PT PM again.  Perhaps Bhumjaithai and Move Forward should both be in the coalition even if that is a bit awkward as then no Senate votes are needed.  Give Anutin some important ministries.   Then implement some structural reforms, add pro-democracy Senators.   

Anutin has refused to work with MFP. Som nam na.

[swm59nj]

What will happen?  Things will continue like they always have been unfortunately 

[Billybaroo]

15 hours ago, champers said:

Pita is 42 and can afford to play the long game. Pheu Thai in charge for 4 years with a cobbled together and unsavoury coalition will not harm Pita's future prospects; same if Prawit or Anutin become PM.

MFP will likely have to form a new party and be in opposition but they have done it before and the payback could be a landslide win in 2027.

 

   I am sure this has or will be commented on, but I doubt Pita will be around in 4 years. It is a virtual certainty that the CC will kick him out of politics for the next 10 years. 

[bannork]

1 hour ago, Billybaroo said:

   I am sure this has or will be commented on, but I doubt Pita will be around in 4 years. It is a virtual certainty that the CC will kick him out of politics for the next 10 years. 

When Future Forward were dissolved, and indeed Thaksin's parties before then, many of the banned politicians didn't disappear for the five or even ten year ban they were serving. Relatives or friends often replaced them as MPs and they themselves remained as advisors.

Look at Thanathorn, Piyabutr and Chor from Future Forward, all three banned from political office for 10 years, yet still prominent in the media and closely associated with MF. 

Pita, as the man who should have been PM, could cast an even brighter glow. Like the fascination with stars who die young and in their prime, there could be an ' If only he had been allowed to be PM' fascination with him, constantly invited on to media programmes.

His own demeanor, relaxed, calm, magnanimous even in the moment of dismissal, will help him.

The authorities may dissolve MF but it will do no good, they should learn from the dissolution of Thaksin's parties.

The harsher the powers that be suppress the rise of the young, educated and enlightened citizens, the quicker their downfall will ensure.

 

 

[Stargeezr]

I am sentimental and still like the sound of The Kingdom of Thailand.  I am getting too old to think that

Thailand will be much different anytime soon.  Asian politics is way beyond me.

Cheers.