Year 2566

 

Time flies. Im nearly 600 years old.

what goes up must come down

5 minutes ago, save the frogs said:

what goes up must come down

Watch out in October

3 minutes ago, bignok said:

Watch out in October

how do you know that?

inside information?

you're the Amazing Kresgin?

1 minute ago, save the frogs said:

how do you know that?

inside information?

you're the Amazing Kresgin?

October 1987 crash

 

1987 high was September 3.

 

Sept 29, 2008 crash.

 

August,September is earnings season.

 

 

you've detected a pattern of crashes in autumn?

could be.

markets seem somewhat rigged to me. 

 

5 minutes ago, save the frogs said:

you've detected a pattern of crashes in autumn?

could be.

markets seem somewhat rigged to me. 

 

1929 crash october.

 

 

Markets are not rigged. People panic.

6 minutes ago, bignok said:

Markets are not rigged. People panic.

why do they panic?

media manipulation, right? 

so it's almost the same thing, sort of. indirectly. 

 

Just now, save the frogs said:

why do they panic?

media manipulation, right? 

so it's almost the same thing, sort of. indirectly. 

 

Humans are irrational

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/price-earnings.php

 

Market is overvalued

Up in nominal terms, down in real terms, currency debasement means its flat, gold is -4%, real estate -2.5% yearly back to 2013.

 

Only the NASDAQ +6% against debasement and Crypto (+%) are higher.

 

So yeah 'richer on paper' but can buy the same or less.

Didn't prices of everything recently rised by 50%? Stocks going up by 20% we're still -30%.

16 hours ago, save the frogs said:

why do they panic?

media manipulation, right? 

so it's almost the same thing, sort of. indirectly. 

 

They panic when stocks go down precipitously and they fear losing more principal than they already have... pretty normal stuff. 

16 hours ago, bignok said:

Humans are irrational

and then they post drivel on forums.... but who can be sane in an insane world... [don't answer that!] 

Recent rally fuelled by hopes that "a soft landing" will take place. Globally. Recent data show that this may not happen.
To "kock-out" a persistent inflation it takes at least "a mild" recession. The central banks know this. There is room on the downside, but not much. If the "downside" gets too heavy, the central banks will open the monetary floodgates once more.

S&P 500 historic return yearly average about 10%, is way above CPI inflation.

19 hours ago, Jenkins9039 said:

Up in nominal terms, down in real terms, currency debasement means its flat, gold is -4%, real estate -2.5% yearly back to 2013.

 

Only the NASDAQ +6% against debasement and Crypto (+%) are higher.

 

So yeah 'richer on paper' but can buy the same or less.

S&P against US Balance Sheet (since 2013).

 

S&P500 has performed basically neutral towards currency debasement (number go up, spending power remains consistent). 

 

Gold is -4% year on year

Real Estate -2.5% year on year.

11 hours ago, Thailand J said:

S&P 500 historic return yearly average about 10%, is way above CPI inflation.

 

1 minute ago, Jenkins9039 said:

S&P against US Balance Sheet (since 2013).

 

S&P500 has performed basically neutral towards currency debasement (number go up, spending power remains consistent). 

 

Gold is -4% year on year

Real Estate -2.5% year on year.

NDX average annualised 6% above debasement since 2013 (tech offsets demographics collapse). 

Just now, Jenkins9039 said:

 

NDX average annualised 6% above debasement since 2013 (tech offsets demographics collapse). 

NDX expectations by march 2025 (21,000-23,000).

 

Due to Re-fi cycle debasing currency further, and tech out-performing.

Gold & Real Estate since 2013 

 

Gold -4% annualised

Real Estate - 2.5% annualised

 

CPI is the relevant index to measure the change in dollar purchasing power.

It's not perfect but widely acceptable. Earth shattering fed monetary and fiscal policies were made based mostly on CPI.

Based on CPI reports, dollar lost 24% of it's purchasing power from 2013-23.

In the same period, S&P 500 returned 217%. Compared to other currencies,  the U S dollar index went from 82 to 102.

 Nasdaq NDX is higher risk higher reward compared to S&P 500. It's for those with higher risk tolerance and long time horizon. I have 10% asset in VGT instead of the more popular QQQ.

Edited August 6, 20232 yr by Thailand J

So basically, slowly recovering to where it was at the end of 2021/beginning of 2022.

 

Reality, still down ... barely, if at all, keeping up with the rate of inflation, whatever BS number they say that is ... well done ????

 

Edited August 6, 20232 yr by KhunLA

On 8/2/2023 at 1:08 PM, AndyAndyAndy said:

Didn't prices of everything recently rised by 50%?

Not where I am. A big Chang is still Bht 65.

23 minutes ago, KannikaP said:

Not where I am. A big Chang is still Bht 65.

S&P (USA) ... Chang (TH) ????

 

The price of Chang 5 or 10 yrs ago?

Stopped drink Chang shortly after arriving, was something like 300 baht a box, maybe 2003.

From elsewhere:

"May 11, 2009, 8:44 am

Hi.
Thai GF went to Udon in car yesterday, asked her to get 2 cases of Chang, used to cost me 386 a case, now costs 395"

 

Drank mostly Beer Lao, and that's doubled in price in 10 yrs, I think.

Edited August 6, 20232 yr by KhunLA

3 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

S&P (USA) ... Chang (TH) ????

 

The price of Chang 5 or 10 yrs ago?

Stopped drink Chang shortly after arriving, was something like 300 baht a box, maybe 2003.

From elsewhere:

"May 11, 2009, 8:44 am

Hi.
Thai GF went to Udon in car yesterday, asked her to get 2 cases of Chang, used to cost me 386 a case, now costs 395"

 

Drank mostly Beer Lao, and that's doubled in price in 10 yrs.

The OP is about the S&P going up 20% THIS YEAR.

OK, I posted a rather flippant answer, but your reply about the price of Chang in 2003 & 2009 is rather irrelevant. Cheers.

9 minutes ago, KannikaP said:

The OP is about the S&P going up 20% THIS YEAR.

OK, I posted a rather flippant answer, but your reply about the price of Chang in 2003 & 2009 is rather irrelevant. Cheers.

To your reply, no, to OP, yes.

 

But almost on topic, as OP is all happy about 20% increase YTD, which pales from the drop not to long ago.  so only one way to go, and that's UP.

 

Not back to 2021/22 levels, after that drop/low, and just a wee bit above Feb 2021, when new Biden administration took over.

 

Things look different without tunnel vision & blinders on.

Edited August 6, 20232 yr by KhunLA