My Pirola (BA.2.86)

[SiSePuede419]

Ooh, my little pretty one, pretty one When you gonna give me some time, My Pirola?

 

My first rainy season in Thailand.

 

Sneezing almost every day.

 

Different than the allergies I experienced in America in the desert from pollen from Juniper and other wicked trees & plants.

 

Just sneezing.

 

So didn't think much about it when my 3 year old came home from nursery school with a slight cough and sneezing the other day.

 

Then I began feeling the symptoms of what appears to be a typical cold virus.

 

For some reason, my wife decided to take a COVID ATK test yesterday.

 

She tested positive.

 

And she just got a booster one week ago.

 

I tested positive, too.  My last booster was 5 months ago.

 

Guess what?  The little germ wagon tested negative.  If he was indeed the infection vector, his body already cleared out the virus.

 

Apparently there's a new COVID strain ("Pirola ") that has 48 mutations on the spike protein.

 

It's believed those mutations help the virus evade the vaccine antibodies.

 

The annual booster is not expected to be effective against this new strain and they're considering whether to update the booster to include this new strain.

 

Thankfully, this strain appears to be even MILDER than the Omnicron variant that hit me almost 2 years ago.  That thing made me feel like a truck hit me.  And it gave me "brain fog".  Couldn't remember my street address when I was ordering something.

 

This one only tired for a couple of days, slight headache, runny nose.

 

FYI: My wife and son both wear masks when going to Central, Big C or Makro.

 

My son's school still requires them to wear masks.

 

Me on the other hand, haven't worn a mask in months. 

 

Overconfident that COVID is over and can't effect me anymore.

 

So, nothing is 100% protection, including vaccines, masks nor "overconfidence". ????

Edited August 26, 2023 by SiSePuede419

[Tom H]

Probality!

Not zero

Not 100

 

Try to reach a good probabilty!

So easy. 

[SiSePuede419]

1 hour ago, Tom H said:

good probabilty

What's that?

 

Probability is using algebraic math to calculate the odds of winning games of chance. 

 

It was invented by mathematicians employed by rich European patrons who loved to gamble and wanted to increase their odds of winning.

 

Since you don't know if where you are going has COVID or not floating around in the air, there's no way to calculate your probability of encountering the virus or not 

 

Then there's variable immune responses.  There's no way of knowing how effective your immune system is at identifying and killing COVID strains.

 

And there's no way to calculate how effective your immune response would be against new mutations it's never seen before.

 

So, while possible to calculate the overall probability of getting sick and dying from COVID there's no way to calculate the individual probability of getting sick and dying based on your decision to go to Big C in Chiang Mai on a Tuesday at 6pm on an even numbered day and to know if it's a "good" or "bad" day to get sick and die from COVID. ????

 

Edited August 26, 2023 by SiSePuede419

[VinnieK]

ATK tests are garbage.

Do another one or two..

The results may surprise you.

[SiSePuede419]

1 hour ago, VinnieK said:

ATK tests are garbage.

Do another one or two..

2 years ago after I got sick with COVID symptoms, I took a DNA PCR test, the most accurate.

 

Tested negative.

 

The results DID surprise me. ????

 

However upon further research, it turns out EVERY diagnostic test has limitations.

 

Including the PCR COVID test.

 

The PCR COVID test looks for a sequence of DNA found in the target.

 

If there's a mutation in that sequence, the PCR test won't match and will give a FALSE NEGATIVE.

 

Yes, I know every medical diagnostic test has limitations and can produce FALSE POSITIVES and FALSE NEGATIVES. ????

[BKKBike09]

16 hours ago, SiSePuede419 said:

my 3 year old came home from nursery school

16 hours ago, SiSePuede419 said:

My son's school still requires them to wear masks.

That is truly messed up. And you're okay with this?

[SiSePuede419]

46 minutes ago, BKKBike09 said:

That is truly messed up. And you're okay with this?

Yes, because I am a normal human being not a loser who thinks they have some kind of "secret knowledge" that nobody else knows about which makes them "smart" because they read some BAT<deleted> crazy conspiracy theory on the internet and they lack the critical thinking skills to know the difference between the opinions of crazy people and scientific facts. ????

Edited August 27, 2023 by SiSePuede419

[BKKBike09]

2 hours ago, SiSePuede419 said:

Yes, because I am a normal human being not a loser who thinks they have some kind of "secret knowledge" that nobody else knows about which makes them "smart" because they read some BAT<deleted> crazy conspiracy theory on the internet and they lack the critical thinking skills to know the difference between the opinions of crazy people and scientific facts. ????

I don't have any "secret knowledge". I do have a sister who's a 20-year teacher in an Inner London state primary, who has seen (and sees) first-hand the negative impact of various covid policies - including masking - on very young children. 

 

It's not exactly a "crazy conspiracy theory".

 

"the long-term harm to kids from masking is potentially enormous.  Masking is a psychological stressor for children and disrupts learning.  Covering the lower half of the face of both teacher and pupil reduces the ability to communicate.  In particular, children lose the experience of mimicking expressions, an essential tool of nonverbal communication.  Positive emotions such as laughing and smiling become less recognizable, and negative emotions get amplified. Bonding between teachers and students takes a hit. Overall, it is likely that masking exacerbates the chances that a child will experience anxiety and depression, which are already at pandemic levels themselves"

https://healthpolicy.usc.edu/article/mandatory-masking-of-school-children-is-a-bad-idea/

 

"The results drawn in this study suggest the possibility that children’s language-learning experiences may have been affected by mask-wearing in many different aspects. If these findings were beyond just educators’ perception, wearing a mask not only leads to reduction of visual–auditory sensory input but also modifications of language quantity, language quality, and non-verbal cues children receive"

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.874264/full

 

I note you have been perfectly happy not to wear a mask for months. Presumably because you felt that was a reasonable decision, given overall risk. You're an adult, so your choice to make.

 

But at the same time you seem to be able to rationalise that it's a good thing for a 3-year old to wear a mask?

 

Truly bizarre.

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

20 hours ago, SiSePuede419 said:

The annual booster is not expected to be effective against this new strain and they're considering whether to update the booster to include this new strain.

 

You're a bit off on that above... There is a new emerging strain as you mention. And there are new versions of the COVID booster vaccine already scheduled to be rolled out in places like the U.S. and UK later this fall into early next year.  No idea as yet how that will play out in Thailand.

 

The upcoming new version of COVID vaccine boosters will be based on a prior Omicron version of COVID, not the newest, latest one you cite in your OP. However, the effectiveness of the upcoming vaccine, which is already being manufactured now awaiting approval, against the BA.2.86 variant as of right now isn't fully known.

 

The current scientific thinking is that the newer vaccine will have SOME protective effect against BA.2.86, but how much and/or how much less than against the prior versions of Omicron isn't yet well understood, because there are so many mutations in the 2.86 variant.

 

"BA.2.86 may be more capable of causing infection in people who previously had COVID-19 or who received COVID-19 vaccines, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Aug. 23 in a risk assessment of BA.2.86."

 

AND

 

"The reactivity of the booster to this variant would be predicted to be low," says Pekosz, meaning that the variant is probably not a good match to the updated boosters.

 

"This is something that could trigger a brand new booster based on its sequence, if this variant truly did become a significant cause of cases. But we don't know that now," says Pekosz.

 

https://www.today.com/health/coronavirus/ba286-pirola-covid-variant-symptoms-rcna100944

 

Also,  AFAIK, there have been no officially reported cases of BA.2.86 in Thailand thus far. And it's not even among the various most prominent variants circulating in the world thus far.

 

"As of Aug. 24, BA.2.86 has been linked to three cases in Denmark, two in South Africa, two in the United States, one in Israel and one in the United Kingdom, according to GISAID."

 

So in brief, the makeup of the upcoming fall COVID boosters has already been decided and won't be changed for this coming fall, regardless of how BA.2.86 plays out in the months ahead.

 

There's a months long lead time for new COVID vaccines involving research, testing, trials, regulatory approvals and ultimately manufacturing that doesn't allow the process to just turn on a dime.

 

Edited August 27, 2023 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[SiSePuede419]

There's also a variant called EG.51 that's been detected in Bangkok since April.

 

Spreads quickly and mild symptoms.

 

That's the thing with viruses.

 

If they're extremely fatal, they can't spread quickly, see also: Ebola.

 

BTW, they're only recommending isolation for 5 days now.  This is day #4.

 

I'm flying out of Bangkok on Friday to another country, 555.

 

[SiSePuede419]

17 hours ago, BKKBike09 said:

I don't have any "secret knowledge". I do have a sister who's a 20-year teacher in an Inner London state primary, who has seen (and sees) first-hand the negative impact of various covid policies - including masking - on very young children. 

 

It's not exactly a "crazy conspiracy theory".

 

"the long-term harm to kids from masking is potentially enormous.  Masking is a psychological stressor for children and disrupts learning.  Covering the lower half of the face of both teacher and pupil reduces the ability to communicate.  In particular, children lose the experience of mimicking expressions, an essential tool of nonverbal communication.  Positive emotions such as laughing and smiling become less recognizable, and negative emotions get amplified. Bonding between teachers and students takes a hit. Overall, it is likely that masking exacerbates the chances that a child will experience anxiety and depression, which are already at pandemic levels themselves"

https://healthpolicy.usc.edu/article/mandatory-masking-of-school-children-is-a-bad-idea/

 

"The results drawn in this study suggest the possibility that children’s language-learning experiences may have been affected by mask-wearing in many different aspects. If these findings were beyond just educators’ perception, wearing a mask not only leads to reduction of visual–auditory sensory input but also modifications of language quantity, language quality, and non-verbal cues children receive"

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.874264/full

 

I note you have been perfectly happy not to wear a mask for months. Presumably because you felt that was a reasonable decision, given overall risk. You're an adult, so your choice to make.

 

But at the same time you seem to be able to rationalise that it's a good thing for a 3-year old to wear a mask?

 

Truly bizarre.

 

 

 

Like I said, I am educated with critical thinking skills.

 

The 20 year old teacher's opinion is not Science. ????

 

Also, the USC article is the opinion of two doctors on school age kids in America.  Most 3 year olds aren't in school.

 

Lastly, if you actually read the link about the Japanese and French educators of nursery school kids, it's about their "perceptions" of communication.

THEY HAVE NO ACTUAL MEASUREMENTS

 

Perceptions isn't science, either.

 

You have no clue what my son's verbal skills actually are.

 

Last year when I came here, my son was grunting and pointing at everything he wanted.

 

Now he's verbalizing and talking A LOT.

 

In Thai and English.

 

Just yesterday, after washing his hands he pulls down the hand towel and DRYS his hands and then throws it at me.

 

I asked him why he can't put it back himself.

 

He said "Because I not tall".

 

Sounds like pretty effective communication skills to me.

 

You don't know what you're talking about.

 

Just because you ride a motorcycle in Bangkok doesn't make you a scientist or SME child development expert. 

 

????

Edited August 27, 2023 by SiSePuede419

[Tom H]

On 8/26/2023 at 7:37 PM, SiSePuede419 said:

What's that?

 

Probability is using algebraic math to calculate the odds of winning games of chance. 

 

It was invented by mathematicians employed by rich European patrons who loved to gamble and wanted to increase their odds of winning.

 

Since you don't know if where you are going has COVID or not floating around in the air, there's no way to calculate your probability of encountering the virus or not 

 

Then there's variable immune responses.  There's no way of knowing how effective your immune system is at identifying and killing COVID strains.

 

And there's no way to calculate how effective your immune response would be against new mutations it's never seen before.

 

So, while possible to calculate the overall probability of getting sick and dying from COVID there's no way to calculate the individual probability of getting sick and dying based on your decision to go to Big C in Chiang Mai on a Tuesday at 6pm on an even numbered day and to know if it's a "good" or "bad" day to get sick and die from COVID. ????

 

Likelihood better with the updated vaccine for older people having described handicaps like artery desease etc.

 

Just check Lancet studies.

Fact.

[BKKBike09]

1 hour ago, SiSePuede419 said:

Like I said, I am educated with critical thinking skills.

 

The 20 year old teacher's opinion is not Science. ????

 

Also, the USC article is the opinion of two doctors on school age kids in America.  Most 3 year olds aren't in school.

 

Lastly, if you actually read the link about the Japanese and French educators of nursery school kids, it's about their "perceptions" of communication.

THEY HAVE NO ACTUAL MEASUREMENTS

 

Perceptions isn't science, either.

 

You have no clue what my son's verbal skills actually are.

 

Last year when I came here, my son was grunting and pointing at everything he wanted.

 

Now he's verbalizing and talking A LOT.

 

In Thai and English.

 

Just yesterday, after washing his hands he pulls down the hand towel and DRYS his hands and then throws it at me.

 

I asked him why he can't put it back himself.

 

He said "Because I not tall".

 

Sounds like pretty effective communication skills to me.

 

You don't know what you're talking about.

 

Just because you ride a motorcycle in Bangkok doesn't make you a scientist or SME child development expert. 

Not sure how my screenname enables you to deduce my career and credentials. That's your "critical thinking skills" in action?

 

You're also not very good at either reading or answering questions: qv: "I do have a sister who's a 20-year teacher in an Inner London state primary" does not mean she's 20-years old. Be difficult for a 20-year old to be a qualified teacher in the UK. She's got 20 (+) years of teaching experience (largely in kindergarten, as it happens).

 

The question that you have not answered is why you think it's acceptable for a 3-year old to be forced to wear a mask in pre-school (in fact, I would extend that to any situation) - particularly when you feel that it's fine for you not to wear one at all.

 

If you can't answer this, then don't bother to respond.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by BKKBike09

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

On 8/26/2023 at 4:49 PM, SiSePuede419 said:

My Pirola (BA.2.86)

Apparently there's a new COVID strain ("Pirola ") that has 48 mutations on the spike protein.

 

I haven't seen anything reported about this in the local Thai news thus far... But the following credible source news report suggests BA.2.86 has been found in Thailand's wastewater.

 

"Regarding the highly mutated BA.2.86 virus, which it recently deemed a variant of interest, the WHO said as of August 23, nine sequences have been reported from five countries. No epidemiological sequences were reported among the patients, and no deaths were reported. Also, two countries—Switzerland and Thailand—have reported the virus in wastewater."

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/covid-markers-continue-rise-us-and-globally

 

 

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Covid Variant BA.2.86 Detected In Thailand Wastewater: Scientist

By CodeBlue | 25 August 2023

 

KUALA LUMPUR, August 25 – The BA.2.86 variant has been detected in Thailand through wastewater sample analysis, adding to the list of countries that have reported the presence of the highly mutated Covid-19 strain.

 

Dr Leshan Wannigama, a physician scientist at the Department of Infectious Diseases and Infection Control at Yamagata Prefectural Hospital in Japan, posted on X last Wednesday about his findings.

 

“After sequencing the SARS-CoV-2 S gene and carefully analysing the data with existing BA.2.86 data I can confirm that our Thailand wastewater samples [are] positive for BA.2.86.”

 

(more)

 

https://codeblue.galencentre.org/2023/08/25/covid-variant-ba-2-86-detected-in-thailand-wastewater-scientist/

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The original source of this Aug. 23 report below re Thailand, following up on the original prior report below dated Aug. 20:

 

https://twitter.com/dr_leshan/status/1694368402624893045

 

Dr. Leshan Wannigama

@dr_leshan

Physician Scientist in infectious Disease | Passionate about Respiratory Infections | Pathogen Surveillance in LMIC | AMR | Tropical Medicine | #IDTwitter

 

Dhammika Leshan Wannigama

Infectious Diseases Fellow, Yamagata Prefectural Central Hospital, Japan

 

 

[SiSePuede419]

Well, well, well. ????

https://aseannow.com/topic/1305114-two-cases-of-new-covid-omicron-sub-variant-reported-in-thailand/

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

On 8/31/2023 at 10:55 AM, SiSePuede419 said:

Well, well, well. ????

https://aseannow.com/topic/1305114-two-cases-of-new-covid-omicron-sub-variant-reported-in-thailand/

That thread is about some Thai COVID cases that had a DIFFERENT variant, not the BA.2.86 one that is the subject of this thread.

 

[DavisH]

On 8/27/2023 at 9:47 AM, BKKBike09 said:

That is truly messed up. And you're okay with this?

My students dont need to wear them, but almost all of them do, so do all Thai teachers. I have worn one for almost a year. Had covid in June, almost no symptoms to speak of aside from a dry throat and fatigue. had the AZ vaccine 2 years ago, no boosters, and none planned. 

Edited September 2, 2023 by DavisH

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Katelyn Jetelina is a prominent, respected U.S. epidemiologist who blogs regularly on public health issues including COVID, translating science into layman's terms. She just now has issued some positive, reassuring news on the latest research suggesting that the BA.2.86 variant may not pose as much of a risk as previously feared.

 

Some highlights from her recap of the latest BA.2.86 research quoted below:

BA.2.86 update

Sep 5, 2023

 

--"We thought BA.2.86 would escape our antibodies ~10 times more than XBB (the most recent Omicron subvariant to sweep the U.S.), but it’s only escaping 2-3 fold." [meaning it seems less immune evasive than had been feared]

 

--"Infectivity. BA.2.86 has a more challenging time infecting our cells than XBB." [meaning it's not as infective]

 

--"Previous XBB infection helps protect against BA.2.86." [there had been prior concern it might not]

 

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/ba286-update

 

As she summarized all of the above: "Many of us took a big sigh of relief after seeing specific results over the weekend."

 

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Moderna: Updated vaccine shows strong response against BA.2.86

"In related developments, Moderna today announced that a clinical trial with its research assay suggests the updated vaccine, which is under Food and Drug Administration (FDA) review, generates an 8.7-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies in people against BA.2.86.

 

In a statement, the company's president, Stephen Hoge, MD, said that, taken together with recent findings suggesting a similar response to newer variants EG.5 and FL.1.5.1, the data confirm that the vaccine will continue to be an important tool for protection heading into the fall vaccination season."

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/who-airs-concerns-about-global-covid-trends

 

[NanLaew]

On 8/28/2023 at 8:47 AM, BKKBike09 said:

Not sure how my screenname enables you to deduce my career and credentials. That's your "critical thinking skills" in action?

 

You're also not very good at either reading or answering questions: qv: "I do have a sister who's a 20-year teacher in an Inner London state primary" does not mean she's 20-years old. Be difficult for a 20-year old to be a qualified teacher in the UK. She's got 20 (+) years of teaching experience (largely in kindergarten, as it happens).

 

The question that you have not answered is why you think it's acceptable for a 3-year old to be forced to wear a mask in pre-school (in fact, I would extend that to any situation) - particularly when you feel that it's fine for you not to wear one at all.

 

If you can't answer this, then don't bother to respond.

 

If you can't stay on topic, don't bother to post.

[BKKBike09]

2 hours ago, NanLaew said:

If you can't stay on topic, don't bother to post.

Er. Thanks for the insight.

[arithai12]

On 8/26/2023 at 4:49 PM, SiSePuede419 said:

Different than the allergies I experienced in America in the desert from pollen from Juniper and other wicked trees & plants.

There are no trees and plants in the Atacama. Unless when you say America you mean USA?