Thai tourism faces strain from sluggish Chinese, Japanese economies

[Elkski]

This thread prompted me to check airfare and cimpare to last year.  

Last year we go RT fare of 780$ lax-bkk dec 6- jan 20th which was actually a bery low price compared to 2016-2019.  These dates, for years,   have seemed to be just in front and back of high sesson rates.  Currently on same korean air these flights are 1370$    a hefty chunk of change for 2.  Luckily we dont have plans for Thailand this high season.  Im rhink a clean beach relaxed area in Mexico to show my Thai wife how <deleted>ty Thailand is  

[geisha]

Let’s be honest, most tourists came to Thailand because  it was  so cheap. Nowadays, unless you buy an all inclusive package , it’s not cheap any more ! Just calculate a long haul flight, 14 nights hotels, meals, entertainment, attractions etc , thats double what you’d pay for staying in EU ! Imagine what a family would pay in airfares  ! Add to that you’re only a 90 min/2 hr flight away , some great clean beaches and delicious food as well.  No fuss of flights, insurance, language barrier, and the whole inconvenience.  France Spain , Italy , Greece , for example have had a very good year, with tourists staying close to home.  
Thailand has also made the mistake of opening its doors to Chinese and Indian group package tours, that brings peanuts to Thai businesses.  You reap what you sow. Infrastructure is catastrophic , imagine the money that the government / authorities have earned over the years from tourism and not reinvested to upgrade .  many people don’t like the in your face prostitution . Yes, loads of you will say that it’s exotic and colorful and don’t come if you don’t like it. That’s not a view that will bring in more quality tourists. 

[Phil1964]

7 hours ago, Trip Hop said:

Used it once myself and would never again.  Terrible service/attitude considering the way they try to portray themselves and received far better service elsewhere.  Would welcome it to return though, if only to relieve the demand on the competition?

I never used the old BA option when I learned the 747 on that route was the oldest 747 in BA's fleet and prone to issues. Someone I knew spent 48hrs in Athens circa 2018/19 when BA's LHR>BKK flight had to make an unscheduled stop there for repairs!

Used BA 3 times in total, once they lost my luggage, once they tipped a whole glass of wine over my ex-wife and the final time we were stuck on a runway at Phoenix waiting over 2 hours with no cooling ventilation or liquid refreshments and could'nt be arsed to check if elderly passengers and children were okay.

 

[Gknrd]

I am from the US. The economy where I am is booming. Not enough people to do the Jobs. As the political climate is changing , no one I know is going to Thailand for their vacation. It's a dead end destination for us here. 

Where before I could go to Thailand very reasonable as an expat, and get a year extension. Now everyone is avoiding that part of the world. I am in Colombia. Could not ask for a better place to spend a few months a year. 

I could care less about politics, I only go where the country welcome me and my dollar goes far. Politics have shifted in Thailand towards the Chinese. Now that their economy is in serious trouble they are crying. They made extreme poor decisions and are paying the price. End of story. 

Same rip offs here as in Thailand , but as I am writing this I am in a private home with a private  river front and a botanical garden I am sitting in with humming birds flying around me. Same price as Thailand but unspoiled beauty that is breathtaking. 

 

Edited August 30, 2023 by Gknrd

[Jumbo1968]

10 minutes ago, Phil1964 said:

I never used the old BA option when I learned the 747 on that route was the oldest 747 in BA's fleet and prone to issues. Someone I knew spent 48hrs in Athens circa 2018/19 when BA's LHR>BKK flight had to make an unscheduled stop there for repairs!

Used BA 3 times in total, once they lost my luggage, once they tipped a whole glass of wine over my ex-wife and the final time we were stuck on a runway at Phoenix waiting over 2 hours with no cooling ventilation or liquid refreshments and could'nt be arsed to check if elderly passengers and children were okay.

 

When I used B.A. a couple of times it was a 777 albeit it the seats were well worn.

[BarraMarra]

So not many plusseys for Thailand then. Whats the 1st they do when they know troubles brewing ? up the prices to offset lack of numbers. They don't comprehend or dont want to comprehend  the negativity it has on future tourists numbers. Failing that they lie and and spread false hope to the tourist industry. Slash domestic flights and hotel prices for beginers and try to Encourage more visitors not turn them away.

Edited August 30, 2023 by BarraMarra

[kinyara]

1 hour ago, Gknrd said:

I am from the US. The economy where I am is booming. Not enough people to do the Jobs. As the political climate is changing , no one I know is going to Thailand for their vacation. It's a dead end destination for us here. 

Where before I could go to Thailand very reasonable as an expat, and get a year extension. Now everyone is avoiding that part of the world. I am in Colombia. Could not ask for a better place to spend a few months a year. 

I could care less about politics, I only go where the country welcome me and my dollar goes far. Politics have shifted in Thailand towards the Chinese. Now that their economy is in serious trouble they are crying. They made extreme poor decisions and are paying the price. End of story. 

Same rip offs here as in Thailand , but as I am writing this I am in a private home with a private  river front and a botanical garden I am sitting in with humming birds flying around me. Same price as Thailand but unspoiled beauty that is breathtaking. 

 

Although no one you know is going to Thailand, the fact is over half a million Americans, ( 534k ),  do find Thailand an attractive destination and have chosen to visit Thailand already this year. 

[GoodieAfterDark]

13 hours ago, Adumbration said:

Chinese econom is not suffering.  It is collapsing.

 

[GoodieAfterDark]

9 minutes ago, kinyara said:

Although no one you know is going to Thailand, the fact is over half a million Americans, ( 534k ),  do find Thailand an attractive destination and have chosen to visit Thailand already this year. 

Yes. Probably half of that foreigners living in America. And the rest Asians or losers looking for a screw.

[Gknrd]

7 hours ago, kinyara said:

Although no one you know is going to Thailand, the fact is over half a million Americans, ( 534k ),  do find Thailand an attractive destination and have chosen to visit Thailand already this year. 

Numbers are dwindling fast..  

[Gknrd]

7 hours ago, GoodieAfterDark said:

Yes. Probably half of that foreigners living in America. And the rest Asians or losers looking for a screw.

Agree, Have some Thai neighbors here. they go back to visit relatives. But cannot wait to get out of there. 

Edited August 30, 2023 by Gknrd

[morrobay]

16 hours ago, jaideedave said:

Agreed, but not too much because that,s why it's so much fun.

That only works for a subset of the tourism population. The rest of them are not coming back for all above reasons 

[Walker88]

I think for many in the West, particularly the USA, Thailand is a "been there, done that" sort of thing. Many people who travel are looking for new experiences. There's much greater interest in South America, Europe remains popular, former Eastern Bloc countries are popular, and the adventurous are heading to Africa.

 

China, as has been noted, is in deep trouble. Evergrande is bust, Country Garden is bust, millions of pre-paid condos are not going to be built, and the money paid---life savings, borrowings from Mom and Dad---is not coming back. UE in the 18-25 year group is 20%. Also, Covid prompted many Western companies to change supply lines and look for stuff closer to home, so China loses out there, too. A country built on cheap labor and RE as the base asset has outlived its usefulness. The BRI is looking to be an expensive boondoggle with little ROI, too, so there goes the much vaunted FX reserves.

 

Japan has a demographic problem, a weak economy, and a falling yen. Visitor numbers look to be way down. Even Golden Week did not seem to bring the usual number of visitors; at least they were not as visible as in past years. Golden week used to bring in thousands of salarymen who spent daytimes on the golf course and nights in agogos, and also thousands of OLs wandering around "like they're in an Enya video" (line from The Big Short).

 

For the last two decades or so, Thai officials have just assumed Thailand is infinitely and eternally attractive to non-Thais. As another poster noted, they suffer from CotU syndrome. Thailand is not the center of the Universe, and authorities have to realize it is up to them to find new ways to make the country attractive. Ask non-Thais back in their home countries what "Thailand" is, and the most common answers will be "bargirls" and "spicy food". I'm not sure one of those is an answer they want to hear. There will always be the sex tourists and old foreigners coming to 'live the dream', but even those demographics can be priced out of the market and lost to Cambodia or Vietnam.

 

I don't work for TAT, and luckily so, because I don't have a good answer. Maybe they should go after the demographic that seems most common today, assuming it has room for more growth. That would be the Indian market and Middle East medical tourism. Absent that, 40 million is going to be the good old days.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Walker88

[Adumbration]

My personal litmus test is how many messages I get from freelancers on ThaiFriendly.  At present it is between 15 and 25 messages every single day.  My old profile also states very clearly "do not contact me if you are a prostitute or freelancer".

 

Business is definitely not booming in the sex sector.

[Trip Hop]

2 hours ago, Walker88 said:

 

 

For the last two decades or so, Thai officials have just assumed Thailand is infinitely and eternally attractive to non-Thais. As another poster noted, they suffer from CotU syndrome. Thailand is not the center of the Universe, and authorities have to realize it is up to them to find new ways to make the country attractive.

The COTU syndrome is oh so true!  The GF came over to the UK for a visit a couple of months back and one of the first observations she made was that how clean and tidy the general surroundings were when compared to Thailand.

 

They can spend millions importing sand to improve the beaches but if they don't upgrade such things as the infrastructure and sidewalks, with regular trash collections etc, it will never be the high class destination that they would like to claim and promote?  You would have thought with all the overseas jollies that Prayut et al have had over the years that they would have immediately noticed the same as the GF and tried to do something to improve it?  

[newnative]

2 hours ago, Walker88 said:

I think for many in the West, particularly the USA, Thailand is a "been there, done that" sort of thing. Many people who travel are looking for new experiences. There's much greater interest in South America, Europe remains popular, former Eastern Bloc countries are popular, and the adventurous are heading to Africa.

 

China, as has been noted, is in deep trouble. Evergrande is bust, Country Garden is bust, millions of pre-paid condos are not going to be built, and the money paid---life savings, borrowings from Mom and Dad---is not coming back. UE in the 18-25 year group is 20%. Also, Covid prompted many Western companies to change supply lines and look for stuff closer to home, so China loses out there, too. A country built on cheap labor and RE as the base asset has outlived its usefulness. The BRI is looking to be an expensive boondoggle with little ROI, too, so there goes the much vaunted FX reserves.

 

Japan has a demographic problem, a weak economy, and a falling yen. Visitor numbers look to be way down. Even Golden Week did not seem to bring the usual number of visitors; at least they were not as visible as in past years. Golden week used to bring in thousands of salarymen who spent daytimes on the golf course and nights in agogos, and also thousands of OLs wandering around "like they're in an Enya video" (line from The Big Short).

 

For the last two decades or so, Thai officials have just assumed Thailand is infinitely and eternally attractive to non-Thais. As another poster noted, they suffer from CotU syndrome. Thailand is not the center of the Universe, and authorities have to realize it is up to them to find new ways to make the country attractive. Ask non-Thais back in their home countries what "Thailand" is, and the most common answers will be "bargirls" and "spicy food". I'm not sure one of those is an answer they want to hear. There will always be the sex tourists and old foreigners coming to 'live the dream', but even those demographics can be priced out of the market and lost to Cambodia or Vietnam.

 

I don't work for TAT, and luckily so, because I don't have a good answer. Maybe they should go after the demographic that seems most common today, assuming it has room for more growth. That would be the Indian market and Middle East medical tourism. Absent that, 40 million is going to be the good old days.

     I think the 'been there, done that' could be applied to a number of countries, and by a number of your average tourists, including me.  I have a long list of places I want to visit for the first time and a not so long amount of remaining time; I suspect I am not alone in that.  Likely, I will only be going once to some of the places on my bucket list, and that would include Thailand, if I didn't live here--a 'one and done' country, for me.  

     Covid shot everything to hell but, pre-covid, only two of the countries tracked by Thailand's statistical department had slight declines in tourists to Thailand from 2015 to 2019, Australia and Singapore.   The numbers for western countries were at least slightly up or better.  UK, up about 5%.  Germany, about 13%.  France, around 9%.  USA, 34%, a bigger increase.  The perception for some posters was big declines in western tourists for years, even before covid, but that wasn't actually the case. 

     The big increases, of course, came from Asian countries, especially China and India, where more of the population could afford to travel and many picked Thailand as a nearby place to venture to for their first foreign country visit.  I think, even if covid hadn't happened, Thailand would have seen that trend continue, with western visitor numbers increasing modestly or remaining steady, and the bigger increases continuing to come from Asian countries.

     I get a chuckle when posters chastise Thailand for 'putting all its eggs in one basket' regarding trying to attract tourists from this or that country.  Thailand can certainly do outreach to selected countries but I doubt it makes very much of a difference in the tourist numbers for a country, despite what TAT would like you to believe.  People will travel where they want to travel.  People will travel when they want to travel, depending on their circumstances.  China gave me a 10-year travel visa; whether I choose to use it again is up to me, not a marketing campaign.

     In 2019, over 1 million Americans visited Thailand.  This year we are at 534,000, so far, with the high season yet to come.  Not great, maybe, but also not horrible, in my opinion, considering there are still some after effects of covid.  It will be interesting to see what the final figure is for the year but I think the US figures will, in future years, be in line with the European countries mentioned, holding steady or very modest gains.   All things considered, Thailand should be happy with that.

[adrin]

16 hours ago, geisha said:

Let’s be honest, most tourists came to Thailand because  it was  so cheap. Nowadays, unless you buy an all inclusive package , it’s not cheap any more ! Just calculate a long haul flight, 14 nights hotels, meals, entertainment, attractions etc , thats double what you’d pay for staying in EU ! Imagine what a family would pay in airfares  ! Add to that you’re only a 90 min/2 hr flight away , some great clean beaches and delicious food as well.  No fuss of flights, insurance, language barrier, and the whole inconvenience.  France Spain , Italy , Greece , for example have had a very good year, with tourists staying close to home.  
Thailand has also made the mistake of opening its doors to Chinese and Indian group package tours, that brings peanuts to Thai businesses.  You reap what you sow. Infrastructure is catastrophic , imagine the money that the government / authorities have earned over the years from tourism and not reinvested to upgrade .  many people don’t like the in your face prostitution . Yes, loads of you will say that it’s exotic and colorful and don’t come if you don’t like it. That’s not a view that will bring in more quality tourists. 

cannot speak about mistake, when thailand has much higher gdp per capita than adjacent countries and multiples of their tourists.

thailand grew it's economy without much effort by torism in contrast to china and others, who had to work. so they reap a lot and did well. just watch the lavish lifestyle of many thais, and how many porsche, bmw, mercedes and teslas are driving around. poor people are mainly from laos, cambodia, myanamr who work here. however most thais are well off, probably close or better than many european countries already.

 

few years ago, thailand was only known for prostitution. nowadays many mfamilies come and thailand is number one destination that ppl talk about in europe. they attract many "quality tourists" already

Edited August 31, 2023 by adrin

[adrin]

3 hours ago, Adumbration said:

My personal litmus test is how many messages I get from freelancers on ThaiFriendly.  At present it is between 15 and 25 messages every single day.  My old profile also states very clearly "do not contact me if you are a prostitute or freelancer".

 

Business is definitely not booming in the sex sector.

need to be really dumb when you do that still. all the girls with some brain do onlyfans, post 1 pic a day and make more than 10k usd a month.

and that the freelancer biz is little down on low season, not a surprise

[Poseidon]

On top of a global recession. We have had a government tell us how much it's hates us all. Then there is all the negative press like the uk girl who was raped on koh tao and the police blamed her. 

Add to that the deformation laws and how traveling in Thailand is now as expensive as going to a European country or Caribbean, if your not interested in the sex scene why bother?. Same for Japan my understanding is okinowa is a nice sunny Japanese island that uses yen if you want a short break for example. 

I am definitely thinking long and hard about my usual trip to Asia if I want to to go Thailand I just can't pretend the costs aren't through the roof anymore and somewhere else like Caribbean would end up cheaper in the long run 

[Adumbration]

3 hours ago, adrin said:

need to be really dumb when you do that still. all the girls with some brain do onlyfans, post 1 pic a day and make more than 10k usd a month.

and that the freelancer biz is little down on low season, not a surprise

Riduculous claim.  I will just assume you are another new fake member posting nonsense.

[paul1804]

On 8/30/2023 at 2:51 PM, adrin said:

 

 

where have you got these numbers from

your guess is as good as mine!

[paul1804]

4 hours ago, newnative said:

     I think the 'been there, done that' could be applied to a number of countries, and by a number of your average tourists, including me.  I have a long list of places I want to visit for the first time and a not so long amount of remaining time; I suspect I am not alone in that.  Likely, I will only be going once to some of the places on my bucket list, and that would include Thailand, if I didn't live here--a 'one and done' country, for me.  

     Covid shot everything to hell but, pre-covid, only two of the countries tracked by Thailand's statistical department had slight declines in tourists to Thailand from 2015 to 2019, Australia and Singapore.   The numbers for western countries were at least slightly up or better.  UK, up about 5%.  Germany, about 13%.  France, around 9%.  USA, 34%, a bigger increase.  The perception for some posters was big declines in western tourists for years, even before covid, but that wasn't actually the case. 

     The big increases, of course, came from Asian countries, especially China and India, where more of the population could afford to travel and many picked Thailand as a nearby place to venture to for their first foreign country visit.  I think, even if covid hadn't happened, Thailand would have seen that trend continue, with western visitor numbers increasing modestly or remaining steady, and the bigger increases continuing to come from Asian countries.

     I get a chuckle when posters chastise Thailand for 'putting all its eggs in one basket' regarding trying to attract tourists from this or that country.  Thailand can certainly do outreach to selected countries but I doubt it makes very much of a difference in the tourist numbers for a country, despite what TAT would like you to believe.  People will travel where they want to travel.  People will travel when they want to travel, depending on their circumstances.  China gave me a 10-year travel visa; whether I choose to use it again is up to me, not a marketing campaign.

     In 2019, over 1 million Americans visited Thailand.  This year we are at 534,000, so far, with the high season yet to come.  Not great, maybe, but also not horrible, in my opinion, considering there are still some after effects of covid.  It will be interesting to see what the final figure is for the year but I think the US figures will, in future years, be in line with the European countries mentioned, holding steady or very modest gains.   All things considered, Thailand should be happy with that.

What do you mean, "the high season is yet to come" Its been & gone unless you are talking about the last 10 days of December??? 

[Jumbo1968]

2 hours ago, paul1804 said:

What do you mean, "the high season is yet to come" Its been & gone unless you are talking about the last 10 days of December??? 

For me the high season starts later now mid November and ends the first fortnight in January, the days of long term holidays for foreigners has disappeared never to return. 
Still hotels closed including the one on Soi Bukhao where the dining area is now a cannabis outlet.

[newnative]

2 hours ago, paul1804 said:

What do you mean, "the high season is yet to come" Its been & gone unless you are talking about the last 10 days of December??? 

Just what I meant.  The high season is yet to come.  This is still August, for heaven's sake.

[Phil1964]

On 8/30/2023 at 1:21 PM, Elkski said:

This thread prompted me to check airfare and cimpare to last year.  

Last year we go RT fare of 780$ lax-bkk dec 6- jan 20th which was actually a bery low price compared to 2016-2019.  These dates, for years,   have seemed to be just in front and back of high sesson rates.  Currently on same korean air these flights are 1370$    a hefty chunk of change for 2.  Luckily we dont have plans for Thailand this high season.  Im rhink a clean beach relaxed area in Mexico to show my Thai wife how <deleted>ty Thailand is  

Exactly, flights from UK to Thailand are silly money now, despite flight prices heading west out of the UK being nearly back to pre-covid levels. Think airfares to Thailand et al from UK are not showing the 'same value' as a lot of long haul carriers such as BA either totally exited, or reduced their route options from UK to SE Asia, leaving the remaining operators to fill their flights more effectively without dropping their prices to do so.

 

[Chelseafan]

On 8/30/2023 at 6:51 AM, Jumbo1968 said:

If airfares drop it might encourage more tourists but on my recent trip to the U.K. the flights were more or less full  both ways in economy therefore fares are not going be reduced by airlines.

I travelled Business Class from Dubai to BKK, A380 handful of passengers in Business Class, 2 in First Class no idea how Emirates make money on that flight. On a side note the food was disgusting, economy meal served on plates but it appeared to have been reheated several times over. I have sent a complaint to Emirates but no reply as yet.

As I see it, there's still not nearly enough metal in the sky versus pre-covid. Flights get filled up quickly therefore airlines are able to hike their prices to profit on it. The cost of my flight a few weeks ago was over 100% more expensive than in 2019.

 

[Chelseafan]

On 8/30/2023 at 7:18 AM, Phil1964 said:

I holidayed in Thailand this month from the UK. While flights out and back, (Eva Air - LHR / BKK), were full, Brits were a minority on both flights.

Here in the UK we have high inflation, GBP exchange rates are rubbish compared to last 20years averages, for many people stagnant / declining wages are a reality, (I was made redundant 2 weeks before flying out), and airfares to SE Asia are ridiculous compared to heading westwards. In my circle the only people I know going to Thailand or long haul are those who have family in Thailand, or who are well-off. People on £40k  / year simply can't afford long haul family holidays anymore...

Travelling westwards, is certainly more expensive particuarly on the business routes. I just booked a business class trip to Seattle for £8k. I flew to Thailand in FC for £5k with Thai who are generally the most expensive.

 

[adrin]

16 hours ago, Adumbration said:

Riduculous claim.  I will just assume you are another new fake member posting nonsense.

yeah, most make much more than that. seems you are clueless, thats why you calling others fake member. hhaha

[kinyara]

19 hours ago, paul1804 said:

your guess is as good as mine!

https://www.mots.go.th/more_news_new.php?cid=411

[paul1804]

21 hours ago, newnative said:

Just what I meant.  The high season is yet to come.  This is still August, for heaven's sake.

Maybe you are not familiar with historical tourist arrivals between now and mid December but this is LOW SEASON & soon to be WET SEASON. Currently many countries are experiencing economic downturns including China & Japan which will have a spill over effect on Thai visitor numbers! 

Edited September 1, 2023 by paul1804