Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

[Morch]

39 minutes ago, placnx said:

Putin is welcome in North Korea, China, Syria. Where else?

Here?

[placnx]

9 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

6000 rockets landing in Israel

True, probably more, but the IDF were dropping 6000 bombs intentionally on residences. Hamas rockets land whereever, by God's will. In the past, most landed without causing injury to people, but set off a lot of alarms.

 

The 6000 bombs were dropped without the warning that they do, but maybe those warnings are only for rocket attacks.

[Morch]

41 minutes ago, placnx said:

This has been used frequently in previous attacks on Gaza as an excuse to commit war crimes.

The use of civilians as 'human shields' is a war crime. The one making excuses is yourself.

[Morch]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

The question is whether Palestinian accession to the Rome Statute covers Gaza. That's separate from crimes covered by the Geneva conventions.

Technically and legally yes, in effect no.

[placnx]

7 minutes ago, Morch said:

Assuming it was an IDF bombing is a choice. Assuming it was deliberate is nonsense. Not with Biden already on his way over. Not with the way this war (and past instances) is conducted. You're pushing a false narrative.

 

As for the '5 figure' comment, I don't think countries and armies bent on genocide tend to much about or take their time. But again, that's part of the false narrative you adopted, so doubt common sense would make a dent in your bias.

Predictably, this bombing led to the cancelation of the meeting in Amman. I believe that the meeting agenda was humanitarian aid and even discussion of a cease fire - not anything that would suit Bibi's agenda. It may take 50-60 year, if ever, to see in archives what was discussed, decided, ordered by the Israeli leadership.

Edited October 18, 2023 by placnx

[Morch]

2 minutes ago, placnx said:

True, probably more, but the IDF were dropping 6000 bombs intentionally on residences. Hamas rockets land whereever, by God's will. In the past, most landed without causing injury to people, but set off a lot of alarms.

 

The 6000 bombs were dropped without the warning that they do, but maybe those warnings are only for rocket attacks.

That's your take, but it does not conform with how international law works.

Firing indiscriminately on civilians is a war crime. Hamas rockets are not guided, hence....

The IDF mostly uses guided (to various degree and level of precision) armaments.  That can be acceptable as long as other parameters are kept. I would guess only some of the sorties and bombing missions flown could actually be successfully shown to be war crimes.

 

People minimizing Hamas rockets ought to give being under fire a try.

 

The insistence on coupling the 'no-warning' and all 6000 bombs dropped by Israel is false.

 

 

[Morch]

4 minutes ago, placnx said:

Predictably, this bombing led to the cancelation of the meeting in Amman. I believe that the meeting agenda was humanitarian aid and even discussion of a cease fire - not anything that would suit Bibi's agenda. It may take 50-60 year, if ever, to see in archives what was discussed, decided, ordered by the Israeli leadership.

Again with them insinuations. You have no proof. You have nothing but bias. And yet your build mountains of assumptions, often stated as fact, as to Israel Bad.

 

The official meeting was cancelled. If you imagine things will not be discussed - either on lower level pay grade, or remotely - then again, your choice.

[Bkk Brian]

8 minutes ago, placnx said:

True, probably more, but the IDF were dropping 6000 bombs intentionally on residences. Hamas rockets land whereever, by God's will. In the past, most landed without causing injury to people, but set off a lot of alarms.

 

The 6000 bombs were dropped without the warning that they do, but maybe those warnings are only for rocket attacks.

IDF were giving warning first for evacuations and were dropping them on known Hamas targets, unfortunately the Hamas terrorists, their tunnels and infrastructure are hid well within the residential communities acting as human shields

[Morch]

10 minutes ago, placnx said:

True, probably more, but the IDF were dropping 6000 bombs intentionally on residences. Hamas rockets land whereever, by God's will. In the past, most landed without causing injury to people, but set off a lot of alarms.

 

The 6000 bombs were dropped without the warning that they do, but maybe those warnings are only for rocket attacks.

False narrative, again. Bending facts as suits.

[Bkk Brian]

12 minutes ago, placnx said:

True, probably more, but the IDF were dropping 6000 bombs intentionally on residences. Hamas rockets land whereever, by God's will. In the past, most landed without causing injury to people, but set off a lot of alarms.

 

The 6000 bombs were dropped without the warning that they do, but maybe those warnings are only for rocket attacks.

It should also be noted that 450 of the rockets that Hamas has launched from Gaza fell down within Gaza short of their targets and causing damage and no doubt deaths among Palestinians. The is radar evidence of this from IDF as shown just now in their press briefing.

[Nick Carter icp]

20 minutes ago, placnx said:

True, probably more, but the IDF were dropping 6000 bombs intentionally on residences. Hamas rockets land whereever, by God's will.

That is something to consider .

God stopped a rocket from going to kill Jewish people in Israel and then sent that rocket to kill Muslims in a Gaza Hospital .

   Wouldn't that be proof that the Islamic Religion is a false Religion ?

[novacova]

2 hours ago, placnx said:

The question is whether Palestinian accession to the Rome Statute covers Gaza.

Yes it does cover Gaza.

[placnx]

1 hour ago, Nick Carter icp said:

That is something to consider .

God stopped a rocket from going to kill Jewish people in Israel and then sent that rocket to kill Muslims in a Gaza Hospital .

   Wouldn't that be proof that the Islamic Religion is a false Religion ?

I am not a theologian. People who ascribe God's Will to events have a certain fatalistic mentality. That's dangerous.

[novacova]

2 hours ago, placnx said:

Under the Rome Statute, signatory states have engaged to arrest people accused by the ICC prosecutor. Sometimes they ignore their obligations, though. The tribunal has put some of the indicted on trial. https://www.icc-cpi.int/cases 

The ICC does not have the funding to follow through with its mandate with every hot spot, I doubt they’ll pursue anything that Hamas is responsible for. Though depending on which way the wind blows, they may try to go after Israel just to appease their counterparts, but highly doubt anything will become of it

[placnx]

Just now, novacova said:

The ICC does not have the funding to follow through with its mandate with every hot spot, I doubt they’ll pursue anything that Hamas is responsible for. Though depending on which way the wind blows, they may try to go after Israel just to appease their counterparts, but highly doubt anything will become of it

From the link which I cited, they have been going after abuses in Africa quite a bit.

https://www.icc-cpi.int/cases

The previous prosecutor was banned from the US, even though US actors have not been charged, nor has any case affecting US interests been advanced AFAIK. 

[Morch]

5 minutes ago, placnx said:

From the link which I cited, they have been going after abuses in Africa quite a bit.

https://www.icc-cpi.int/cases

The previous prosecutor was banned from the US, even though US actors have not been charged, nor has any case affecting US interests been advanced AFAIK. 

The ICC does not have an army, and could enforce anything as far Hamas goes. Previous UN investigation were all the same in this regard, with Hamas de-facto deciding what representatives see and whom they talk to.

 

As for the other thing, not quite standing US policy, but Trump's doing.

[novacova]

15 minutes ago, placnx said:

From the link which I cited, they have been going after abuses in Africa quite a bit.

https://www.icc-cpi.int/cases

The previous prosecutor was banned from the US, even though US actors have not been charged, nor has any case affecting US interests been advanced AFAIK. 

We live in a highly politically polarized world, don’t we? It’s difficult even for the individuals who are most objective conceptually, to weed out the nonsense especially during the fog of current events. It’s a matter of history.

Edited October 18, 2023 by novacova

[Chelseafan]

2 hours ago, Nick Carter icp said:

That is something to consider .

God stopped a rocket from going to kill Jewish people in Israel and then sent that rocket to kill Muslims in a Gaza Hospital .

   Wouldn't that be proof that the Islamic Religion is a false Religion ?

 

"You’re basically killing each other to see who’s got the better imaginary friend" - Blaise Pascal

[Yellowtail]

If rockets/missiles are being fired from a hospital, the hospital is a legitimate military target, and the people firing the rockets/missiles from the hospital are war criminals. 

 

 

[placnx]

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

IDF were giving warning first for evacuations and were dropping them on known Hamas targets, unfortunately the Hamas terrorists, their tunnels and infrastructure are hid well within the residential communities acting as human shields

The photos of before & after in the New York Times of several areas bombed don't seem to show any deeper craters indicating that underground structures were penetrated, only that surface structures were erased. It would be helpful if some reporting would address the question of whether any tunnels, etc, were hit with those 6000 bombs.

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, placnx said:

The photos of before & after in the New York Times of several areas bombed don't seem to show any deeper craters indicating that underground structures were penetrated, only that surface structures were erased. It would be helpful if some reporting would address the question of whether any tunnels, etc, were hit with those 6000 bombs.

Maybe the underground structures are underground. 

[placnx]

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

If rockets/missiles are being fired from a hospital, the hospital is a legitimate military target, and the people firing the rockets/missiles from the hospital are war criminals. 

 

 

I've not heard Israel making a claim that missiles were fired from hospitals. There was an instance of missiles stored in an UNWRA school.

https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/press-releases/unrwa-condemns-placement-rockets-second-time-one-its-schools

[Morch]

4 minutes ago, placnx said:

The photos of before & after in the New York Times of several areas bombed don't seem to show any deeper craters indicating that underground structures were penetrated, only that surface structures were erased. It would be helpful if some reporting would address the question of whether any tunnels, etc, were hit with those 6000 bombs.

I don't think that there was any reliable information on that. There were several Hamas higher ups killed, but can't recall if there was mention of bunkers etc. Links for a couple somewhere up topic if you wish to go back and check.

 

 

[Yellowtail]

5 minutes ago, placnx said:

I've not heard Israel making a claim that missiles were fired from hospitals. There was an instance of missiles stored in an UNWRA school.

https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/press-releases/unrwa-condemns-placement-rockets-second-time-one-its-schools

But you would agree that if rockets/missiles are being fired from a hospital, the hospital would be a legitimate military target, and that the people firing the rockets/missiles from the hospital would be war criminals, correct? 

[Bkk Brian]

13 minutes ago, placnx said:

The photos of before & after in the New York Times of several areas bombed don't seem to show any deeper craters indicating that underground structures were penetrated, only that surface structures were erased. It would be helpful if some reporting would address the question of whether any tunnels, etc, were hit with those 6000 bombs.

Well they seem to be knocking out a few of the top level terrorists, the local Hama run health authority that gives numbers on civilian deaths daily does not break it down to how many of those were actually Hamas fighters

 

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1713755908751151186

 

[placnx]

5 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

But you would agree that if rockets/missiles are being fired from a hospital, the hospital would be a legitimate military target, and that the people firing the rockets/missiles from the hospital would be war criminals, correct? 

Let's hope that weapons are not stored in any hospital, much less that a hospital is a base for firing missiles. Legitimate? It would have to be a severe immediate threat to justify attacking a functioning hospital, I think, besides the issue of proportionality.

[Yellowtail]

8 minutes ago, placnx said:

Let's hope that weapons are not stored in any hospital, much less that a hospital is a base for firing missiles. Legitimate? It would have to be a severe immediate threat to justify attacking a functioning hospital, I think, besides the issue of proportionality.

Yes, let's all hope. 

 

To my way of thinking, if rockets are being fired from a hospital, or school, or mosque or apartment building or private villa, it is an immediate threat. 

 

I'm not a big believer in proportionality, save that rhetoric for the leftists that support you. 

 

Again, do you, or do you not agree that if rockets/missiles are being fired from a hospital, that the hospital would be a legitimate military target, and that the people firing the rockets/missiles from the hospital would be war criminals? It's a simple question. 

[Yellowtail]

23 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Well they seem to be knocking out a few of the top level terrorists, the local Hama run health authority that gives numbers on civilian deaths daily does not break it down to how many of those were actually Hamas fighters

 

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1713755908751151186

 

Good news that.

[placnx]

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

Yes, let's all hope. 

 

To my way of thinking, if rockets are being fired from a hospital, or school, or mosque or apartment building or private villa, it is an immediate threat. 

 

I'm not a big believer in proportionality, save that rhetoric for the leftists that support you. 

 

Again, do you, or do you not agree that if rockets/missiles are being fired from a hospital, that the hospital would be a legitimate military target, and that the people firing the rockets/missiles from the hospital would be war criminals? It's a simple question. 

I answered the question already. As I said, it depends.

[Toolong]

'Israel's Options'....?

 

It's narrowed down to one now: Israel's 75 year immoral and horribly unjust occupation of the land on which the indigenous Palestinians rightfully call their homeland......is over. 

 

Not over now, of course. But it will be, even in my lifetime.....and I'm old! 🇰🇼