ThaiWanderer68 Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 (edited) Given the appreciation of the THB and the rise in the SET stock market index: What's the chance of seeing middle class Thais retiring to a 3rd World US in the future? Would that drive up prices of cars etc, so Americans could only afford to drive Tuk Tuks? Sexpats in Thailand will find it increasingly more expensive in Thailand, and may be driven back? Example calc: One Thai mutual fund price 31 Dec 2000. THB 7.5/unit. Last night 46.0/unit. USD/THB Dec 2000: 43.4. Now around say: 31.5 (to avoid the confusion of the onshore/offshore = somewhere in the middle) THB 1mio on 31Dec 2000 grows to THB 6.1mio. (1mio x 46/7.5) THB 1mio on 31 Dec was worth USD 24k (1mio / 43.4) THB 6.1mio today is worth approx USD 194k (6.1mio / 31.5) So a Thai with THB 1mio 6-7 years ago now has a handsome USD 194k. How much more do you think they need to retire in US? Edited July 18, 2007 by ThaiWanderer68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eek Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Imo one of the most amusing OP titles that i have read TV for some time! And brilliant post Have nothing constructive to add except for adulation on a clever and funny post, for i suck badly at numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ludosiam Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 I can't imagine a Thai pensioner happily singing in a karaoke shop up with a "hamburger - shaped" american mia noi but if it happens it's time to invest in somtam shops in california and florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donnyboy Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Given the appreciation of the THB and the rise in the SET stock market index: What's the chance of seeing middle class Thais retiring to a 3rd World US in the future? Would that drive up prices of cars etc, so Americans could only afford to drive Tuk Tuks? Sexpats in Thailand will find it increasingly more expensive in Thailand, and may be driven back? Example calc: One Thai mutual fund price 31 Dec 2000. THB 7.5/unit. Last night 46.0/unit. USD/THB Dec 2000: 43.4. Now around say: 31.5 (to avoid the confusion of the onshore/offshore = somewhere in the middle) THB 1mio on 31Dec 2000 grows to THB 6.1mio. (1mio x 46/7.5) THB 1mio on 31 Dec was worth USD 24k (1mio / 43.4) THB 6.1mio today is worth approx USD 194k (6.1mio / 31.5) So a Thai with THB 1mio 6-7 years ago now has a handsome USD 194k. How much more do you think they need to retire in US? Im picking the way its going, tuk tuks will be a luxury vehical for the yanks, most will be in samlors as the price of gas will be sky high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donnyboy Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 I can't imagine a Thai pensioner happily singing in a karaoke shop up with a "hamburger - shaped" american mia noi but if it happens it's time to invest in somtam shops in california and florida you could be on to something ludosiam- maybe call it McSomtams! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jingthing Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 (edited) Hmmm, we might hire a Mexican to drive that buggy for us. Dollar still strong against the Peso. Seriously, some Yankees will be squeezed out and some will now never come. They will just go back to the USA or to greener pastures where the Yankee dollar still rules. Such places still exist. But, for how long? Edited July 18, 2007 by Jingthing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donnyboy Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Hmmm, we might hire a Mexican to drive that buggy for us. Dollar still strong against the Peso. and seashells!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jingthing Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Hmmm, we might hire a Mexican to drive that buggy for us. Dollar still strong against the Peso. and seashells!! I feel better already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donnyboy Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Hmmm, we might hire a Mexican to drive that buggy for us. Dollar still strong against the Peso.Seriously, some Yankees will be squeezed out and some will now never come. They will just go back to the USA or to greener pastures where the Yankee dollar still rules. Such places still exist. But, for how long? indeed, if I was at retirement age and looking to live overseas I would not be pleased, and would be looking to stay put for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumnien Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Seriously, I don't think the ratio of Americans/other farangs has changed since the days of 25 baht/$. These Americans have enormous stock gains to spend on account of their cheap dollar! It's when the dollar strengthens and the US stock market and economy feel the effects that you will see pressure on Americans living in Thailand. Even then, you have to remember the number one rule of Thailand. Over any substantial period of time the numbers of farang will increase dramatically. This isn't going to be changing for many, many decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PETERTHEEATER Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Given the appreciation of the THB and the rise in the SET stock market index: What's the chance of seeing middle class Thais retiring to a 3rd World US in the future? Would that drive up prices of cars etc, so Americans could only afford to drive Tuk Tuks? Sexpats in Thailand will find it increasingly more expensive in Thailand, and may be driven back? Example calc: One Thai mutual fund price 31 Dec 2000. THB 7.5/unit. Last night 46.0/unit. USD/THB Dec 2000: 43.4. Now around say: 31.5 (to avoid the confusion of the onshore/offshore = somewhere in the middle) THB 1mio on 31Dec 2000 grows to THB 6.1mio. (1mio x 46/7.5) THB 1mio on 31 Dec was worth USD 24k (1mio / 43.4) THB 6.1mio today is worth approx USD 194k (6.1mio / 31.5) So a Thai with THB 1mio 6-7 years ago now has a handsome USD 194k. How much more do you think they need to retire in US? No. Americans will not be driving tuk tuks because they have manual transmissions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jingthing Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Touche, Peter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanGuy1066 Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 (edited) Given the appreciation of the THB and the rise in the SET stock market index: What's the chance of seeing middle class Thais retiring to a 3rd World US in the future? Would that drive up prices of cars etc, so Americans could only afford to drive Tuk Tuks? Sexpats in Thailand will find it increasingly more expensive in Thailand, and may be driven back? Example calc: One Thai mutual fund price 31 Dec 2000. THB 7.5/unit. Last night 46.0/unit. USD/THB Dec 2000: 43.4. Now around say: 31.5 (to avoid the confusion of the onshore/offshore = somewhere in the middle) THB 1mio on 31Dec 2000 grows to THB 6.1mio. (1mio x 46/7.5) THB 1mio on 31 Dec was worth USD 24k (1mio / 43.4) THB 6.1mio today is worth approx USD 194k (6.1mio / 31.5) So a Thai with THB 1mio 6-7 years ago now has a handsome USD 194k. How much more do you think they need to retire in US? No. Americans will not be driving tuk tuks because they have manual transmissions! Too difficult??? Edited July 18, 2007 by AmericanGuy1066 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canadiangirl Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Hey you, where you go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Quite sure only ones ever driving tuk tuks will be thai(s)!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaiPenLai Posted July 19, 2007 Share Posted July 19, 2007 Quite sure only ones ever driving tuk tuks will be thai(s)!! I dunno......... We Americans certainly have a love for anything with wheels. I can just see the tuk tuk " elevated " to the following categories: MONSTER tuk tuk Crushing hummers and SUV's with abandon! Dragster tuk tuk Just extend the frame and add alcohol! F-1 series tuk tuk A tuk tuk bristling with millions of dollars of sophisticated electronics and computers engineered beyond comprehension! The applications are endless. Of course we would have to address some serious safety issues with the original design...... BUT on the bright side we already have the perfect crash test dummy. GWB Ride'em cowboy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edonista Posted July 20, 2007 Share Posted July 20, 2007 Given the appreciation of the THB and the rise in the SET stock market index: What's the chance of seeing middle class Thais retiring to a 3rd World US in the future? Would that drive up prices of cars etc, so Americans could only afford to drive Tuk Tuks? Sexpats in Thailand will find it increasingly more expensive in Thailand, and may be driven back? Example calc: One Thai mutual fund price 31 Dec 2000. THB 7.5/unit. Last night 46.0/unit. USD/THB Dec 2000: 43.4. Now around say: 31.5 (to avoid the confusion of the onshore/offshore = somewhere in the middle) THB 1mio on 31Dec 2000 grows to THB 6.1mio. (1mio x 46/7.5) THB 1mio on 31 Dec was worth USD 24k (1mio / 43.4) THB 6.1mio today is worth approx USD 194k (6.1mio / 31.5) So a Thai with THB 1mio 6-7 years ago now has a handsome USD 194k. How much more do you think they need to retire in US? What a load of crap. Instead of picking up a 2000 investment (quite easy to do that afterwards) why don't you pick the 1994 stock market index and baht exchange rate ? SET was 1800 (it is 850 now) and 25 baht bought 1$. In 13 years 1 million baht (= $40,000)would have turned into less then 500,000 baht and $15,000. Great return indeed. Btw why should ever a Thai retire to the US where everything is way more expensive (expecially comfort ladies) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edonista Posted July 20, 2007 Share Posted July 20, 2007 Imo one of the most amusing OP titles that i have read TV for some time! And brilliant post Have nothing constructive to add except for adulation on a clever and funny post, for i suck badly at numbers. You sure do, and so does the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiWanderer68 Posted July 20, 2007 Author Share Posted July 20, 2007 (edited) Given the appreciation of the THB and the rise in the SET stock market index: What's the chance of seeing middle class Thais retiring to a 3rd World US in the future? Would that drive up prices of cars etc, so Americans could only afford to drive Tuk Tuks? Sexpats in Thailand will find it increasingly more expensive in Thailand, and may be driven back? Example calc: One Thai mutual fund price 31 Dec 2000. THB 7.5/unit. Last night 46.0/unit. USD/THB Dec 2000: 43.4. Now around say: 31.5 (to avoid the confusion of the onshore/offshore = somewhere in the middle) THB 1mio on 31Dec 2000 grows to THB 6.1mio. (1mio x 46/7.5) THB 1mio on 31 Dec was worth USD 24k (1mio / 43.4) THB 6.1mio today is worth approx USD 194k (6.1mio / 31.5) So a Thai with THB 1mio 6-7 years ago now has a handsome USD 194k. How much more do you think they need to retire in US? What a load of crap. Instead of picking up a 2000 investment (quite easy to do that afterwards) why don't you pick the 1994 stock market index and baht exchange rate ? SET was 1800 (it is 850 now) and 25 baht bought 1$. In 13 years 1 million baht (= $40,000)would have turned into less then 500,000 baht and $15,000. Great return indeed. Btw why should ever a Thai retire to the US where everything is way more expensive (expecially comfort ladies) ? Wasn't invested in the Thai market in 1994, so don't have any data on it I'm afraid. Plus this particular fund wasn't launched until 1997. Investing afterwards? -that's *crap* as you put it - who mentioned anything about that? It's definitely not "quite easy" to invest afterwards. Try phoning them and ask if you can invest at 2000 prices. BTW As you don't seem to like talking about past numbers, let's talk about the future: If we extrapolate the performance further it becomes a real "Revelation": USD losing 27% every 6 years, and this fund growing 6 times in just over 6 years. Something Biblical there methinks? USD/THB would fall 43.4> 31.5> 22.9> 16.6> 12.0> = 6.3 after 6 x 6 years and if Somchai the motocycle taxi driver, puts just THB 1,000 in at the start today, maybe he'll sell you his second hand motorbike when he retires in 6x6 years: THB 1,000 > 6,000 > 36,000 > 216,000 > 1,296,000 > 7,776,000 > THB 46,656,000 @ THB 6.3 = 1USD Somchai would have USD 7.3mio in 6 x 6 years @ 6 baht/dollar 666 again? perhaps the appreciation of the baht and SET means that it's worse than we thought. Maybe Americans won't just be driving tuk tuks, maybe they'll be heading the same way as Sodom and Gomorrah. Far too much Gomorrahy going on anyway in the US if you ask me. Won't comment on the other though - each to their own. BTW2 I chose 2000, as most of us are living in the 21st century now. You can join us if you want Edited July 20, 2007 by ThaiWanderer68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edonista Posted July 21, 2007 Share Posted July 21, 2007 Given the appreciation of the THB and the rise in the SET stock market index: What's the chance of seeing middle class Thais retiring to a 3rd World US in the future? Would that drive up prices of cars etc, so Americans could only afford to drive Tuk Tuks? Sexpats in Thailand will find it increasingly more expensive in Thailand, and may be driven back? Example calc: One Thai mutual fund price 31 Dec 2000. THB 7.5/unit. Last night 46.0/unit. USD/THB Dec 2000: 43.4. Now around say: 31.5 (to avoid the confusion of the onshore/offshore = somewhere in the middle) THB 1mio on 31Dec 2000 grows to THB 6.1mio. (1mio x 46/7.5) THB 1mio on 31 Dec was worth USD 24k (1mio / 43.4) THB 6.1mio today is worth approx USD 194k (6.1mio / 31.5) So a Thai with THB 1mio 6-7 years ago now has a handsome USD 194k. How much more do you think they need to retire in US? What a load of crap. Instead of picking up a 2000 investment (quite easy to do that afterwards) why don't you pick the 1994 stock market index and baht exchange rate ? SET was 1800 (it is 850 now) and 25 baht bought 1$. In 13 years 1 million baht (= $40,000)would have turned into less then 500,000 baht and $15,000. Great return indeed. Btw why should ever a Thai retire to the US where everything is way more expensive (expecially comfort ladies) ? Wasn't invested in the Thai market in 1994, so don't have any data on it I'm afraid. Plus this particular fund wasn't launched until 1997. Investing afterwards? -that's *crap* as you put it - who mentioned anything about that? It's definitely not "quite easy" to invest afterwards. Try phoning them and ask if you can invest at 2000 prices. BTW As you don't seem to like talking about past numbers, let's talk about the future: If we extrapolate the performance further it becomes a real "Revelation": USD losing 27% every 6 years, and this fund growing 6 times in just over 6 years. Something Biblical there methinks? USD/THB would fall 43.4> 31.5> 22.9> 16.6> 12.0> = 6.3 after 6 x 6 years and if Somchai the motocycle taxi driver, puts just THB 1,000 in at the start today, maybe he'll sell you his second hand motorbike when he retires in 6x6 years: THB 1,000 > 6,000 > 36,000 > 216,000 > 1,296,000 > 7,776,000 > THB 46,656,000 @ THB 6.3 = 1USD Somchai would have USD 7.3mio in 6 x 6 years @ 6 baht/dollar 666 again? perhaps the appreciation of the baht and SET means that it's worse than we thought. Maybe Americans won't just be driving tuk tuks, maybe they'll be heading the same way as Sodom and Gomorrah. Far too much Gomorrahy going on anyway in the US if you ask me. Won't comment on the other though - each to their own. BTW2 I chose 2000, as most of us are living in the 21st century now. You can join us if you want I find expecially interesting the first series about forecasted exchange rates, I wonder why the last "extrapolation" instead of 73% of the previous is about 52%....you hit the wrong keys on calculator perhaps ? Anyway if you think extrapolating a 6 year fund yeld for another 36 years gives you a reliable forecast, I suggest you to put all your savings on that fund and live happily ever after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiWanderer68 Posted July 21, 2007 Author Share Posted July 21, 2007 (edited) I find expecially interesting the first series about forecasted exchange rates, I wonder why the last "extrapolation" instead of 73% of the previous is about 52%....you hit the wrong keys on calculator perhaps ? Anyway if you think extrapolating a 6 year fund yeld for another 36 years gives you a reliable forecast, I suggest you to put all your savings on that fund and live happily ever after. Hi Edonsita, Good spot. You're definitely on the ball. I missed out one number in the series. If you count there was one number missing in the exchange rates compared to the investments. The exchange rates had only 6 numbers and the investments, 7. BTW The actual rate was closer to 27.4% than 27%. You'll notice that (1-0.274)^2 = 52.7%, as you indeed pointed out. The correct complete should series read as follows: USD/THB would fall 43.4> 31.5> 22.9> 16.6> 12.0> 8.7 >= 6.3 after 6 x 6 years THB 1,000 > 6,000 > 36,000 > 216,000 > 1,296,000 > 7,776,000 > THB 46,656,000 @ THB 6.3 = 1USD Somchai would have USD 7.3mio in 6 x 6 years @ 6 baht/dollar I wouldn't go as far as saying it is a reliable forecast of the future. It is an interesting thought though. BTW I'm already living happily ever after - we don't need spectacular investments returns and currency gains to be happy, as I'm sure you'll agree. Edited July 21, 2007 by ThaiWanderer68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mellow1 Posted July 29, 2007 Share Posted July 29, 2007 In America a Tuk Tuk might be something children would play with if they couldn't afford a decent Go-cart.Of course some modifications for safety would have to be made.Washing it and a decent coat of paint wouldn't hurt either. There are a lot of Thais in America,I don't know how many are retired.The ones I've met work.I would think that many Thais here in Issan,would never be able to afford retirement there.We moved to the LOS because it was expensive for us,and my retirement pays much, more than what most Thais make working.If a small Thai family were to retire there they could easily do it on about $40,000 a year,if they purchased a home for another $200,000(not available in a city).They wouldn't have to live in a ghetto,where they might encounter a similar racism, which they are used to dishing out.Of course they would have to pay taxes on their home.Throwing trash around, is or was a $500 fine that will certainly be an inconvenience.From my observation of Thai driving skills, another large chunk of the kitty will be spent on extremely expensive traffic fines,and after trying to slip the cop a few bucks, they will learn about lawyer fees,and court cost.The USA also doesn't have a state of the arts free health care system as found in the LOS.Getting sick would definitely upset any plans they would of had.Medicine could be another small problem, non-pirated goods are a little more expansive and there are no international aid packages available to people in America. As far as the weak dollar and the deficit,the US could just pass a Foreign Business Act similar to the one Thailand has,give everyone a month to comply,confiscate all assets afterwards, and defraud on any debts as others have done.What would then happen to your economies.Americans a very much aware of the sentiments towards them. I suggest you keep hating,if not Americans find something else.It will be good for your health and state of mind.It will also justify to yourself your faults and any negative actions you have committed in your life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThaiWanderer68 Posted March 20, 2008 Author Share Posted March 20, 2008 I wonder if I should ask, if I can change the title of this thread to: "Will Americans be LIVING in Tuk Tuks in the future" Just an observation given the state of the economy and housing market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaBlue05 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Wishful thinking there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ignis Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Would Americans fit in Tuk Tuks ?? Maybe get 1 American in the back, but would any fit in the drivers space? Super size Tuk Tuks anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbk Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Well, given the state of this thread, and the "wittiness" of the answers, I see no point in continuing it as I certainly can't be bothered deleting every single derogatory simplistic post. ///CLOSED/// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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