Delayed gratification

[georgegeorgia]

There's a guy at my 76yo has a  filipino  wife ,he is working overtime and weekends ,said he will retire to Philippines at 80! 😳

[BritManToo]

3 minutes ago, georgegeorgia said:

Your live in GF still working though so it's easier for you I guess 

I've never had a woman anywhere that supported herself.

It's always been 100% paid for with my money.

[georgegeorgia]

20 hours ago, newnative said:

     I retired at age 53 after 30 years at a rather low-paying USA state job.  Got a reduced state pension, which I supplemented by working another 5 years part-time before moving to Thailand with my Thai partner.  Took Social Security as soon as I could, age 62.  Absolutely no regrets with any of the decisions.  In your shoes, I would work another 10 years and retire at 50, with a bigger retirement income--better to have more than enough than not enough.   As others have mentioned, I think you need to do some thinking about how you plan to spend the next 40 years.  Good luck.

So you retired at 58

 

Yes I agree with you about planning ,we set the goal at 80yo

I went to see a financial planner recently who had it at 83

 

[Photoguy21]

5 hours ago, georgegeorgia said:

You don't wish to retire fully to Asia? 

Definitely I will retire in Thailand. That will be the day they take my body to the temple.

[Gecko123]

Don't forget about currency risk.  No matter what you do, you won't be able to completely eliminate this. Even if you immediately moved all your liquid assets into Thai baht, you'd still face currency risk were you to ever repatriate funds back to your home country. At age 40, you can't say with a high degree of certainty that you will never want to or have to repatriate.

 

Don't believe those who claim that there's scarcely been any inflation in Thailand. When I moved here in 2003 pork was 80/kilo and the exchange rate was 40THB/USD. In 2023, pork has been going for as much as 230-240 baht/kilo and the exchange rate is 34 THB/USD. That means that in 2003 pork cost $2/kilo and in 2023 it costs around $6.76/kilo, which works out to be a 238% and 187% increase in terms of in terms of USD and THB, respectively, over the past 20 years.

 

In my opinion 100K baht as a starting point at age 40 is woefully low. Of course it is more than adequate right now, but there are so many moving pieces of the puzzle (inflation, currency devaluation, visa renewal availability, medical emergencies, disenchantment or other life circumstances, long-term elder care costs, dependability of entitlement programs, climate change, etc.) that you need a far bigger financial cushion than 100K. I would agree 100K/mo sounds like a reasonable amount of money right now, but 20 years from now you probably won't be living very large on that amount in Thailand, and were you to ever have to repatriate, it'll probably be beans and rice for the duration.

Edited December 13, 2023 by Gecko123

[rickudon]

I was made redundant at 55 in the UK, worked part-time too pay the bills, but got work related injuries so fully retired at age 57, moved to Thailand a year later. i had about 40,000 baht a month (depended on exchange rate).  Income mainly pension. First few years were great, but health issues started at 64. If i had waited until i was 65 to retire i would have missed those first few good years. No regrets about retiring, never really bored.  Money was tight, so couldn't do everything i wanted, but if i had waited, would have missed the experience. Still hoping to make 80....

[georgegeorgia]

8 hours ago, rickudon said:

I was made redundant at 55 in the UK, worked part-time too pay the bills, but got work related injuries so fully retired at age 57, moved to Thailand a year later. i had about 40,000 baht a month (depended on exchange rate).  Income mainly pension. First few years were great, but health issues started at 64. If i had waited until i was 65 to retire i would have missed those first few good years. No regrets about retiring, never really bored.  Money was tight, so couldn't do everything i wanted, but if i had waited, would have missed the experience. Still hoping to make 80....

You ok on 40k a month?

I guess you don't go out drinking at all hours etc , great post 

[BritManToo]

On 12/13/2023 at 5:35 PM, Gecko123 said:

Don't believe those who claim that there's scarcely been any inflation in Thailand. When I moved here in 2003 pork was 80/kilo and the exchange rate was 40THB/USD. In 2023, pork has been going for as much as 230-240 baht/kilo and the exchange rate is 34 THB/USD. That means that in 2003 pork cost $2/kilo and in 2023 it costs around $6.76/kilo, which works out to be a 238% and 187% increase in terms of in terms of USD and THB, respectively, over the past 20 years.

This is a prime example of faulty logic! First, what percentage of your income is spent on pork ...... Almost nothing! Second, pension income is not fixed, in the past 2 years I've had nearly a 20% rise.

[PingRoundTheWorld]

32 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

This is a prime example of faulty logic! First, what percentage of your income is spent on pork ...... Almost nothing! Second, pension income is not fixed, in the past 2 years I've had nearly a 20% rise.

Not everybody has a great pension plan that adjusts for inflation. With my pension plan it's almost guaranteed it will be eroded by inflation. Not to mention I could only start pulling reduced benefits at 60, or 67 if I want full benefits. I do have other investments that I expect will far outweigh my pension, but for those too I will have to actively manage them to make sure they outpace inflation - it's not automagic - I'd think on the contrary, most pension and like-pension plans (savings) people have aren't protected against inflation.

[CartagenaWarlock]

On 12/11/2023 at 6:00 AM, Startmeup said:

You can work another 5-10 years after which time you have 200k per month.

It could be as high as another ten years but if you are lucky it might only be 5 years, This isn't predictable. 

Do you take the 100k per month now or put your head down and double your income in the coming years for a much more comfortable life?

Pros/Cons

It is the same thing for US social security. If delayed, you get more. My ss.gov website shows my FRA at current prices is $3,400, and at 70 it will be $4200. Should I delay it to 70 or take it out at FRA? Another tidbit similar to this concept. In the US, you can take out a reverse mortgage for up to 80% (imagine somebody has a house in California worth 800,000 USD. He is sitting on half a million dollars of cash from your house's current value, or you can sell future equity in your house, and the amount depends on the current interest rate and your age. What would you do? 

Edited December 14, 2023 by CartagenaWarlock

[Gecko123]

2 hours ago, BritManToo said:

This is a prime example of faulty logic! First, what percentage of your income is spent on pork ...... Almost nothing! Second, pension income is not fixed, in the past 2 years I've had nearly a 20% rise.

 

You're the one with faulty logic, BritManToo. In your post you wrote "When I arrived in 2009 I was spending 60kbht/month. Now in 2023 I'm spending under 50kbht/month. So in the past 14 years inflation hasn't been significant." There are a ton of reasons why a person's spending patterns might change over time, including belt tightening. To conclude that there's "no significant inflation" because your spending patterns change is not sound reasoning.

 

The only reason I used pork prices as an inflation barometer is because I have a vivid memory of what pork cost and what the exchange rate was when I first arrived. I keep very detailed expense records by category and there are few categories (including in all food categories aside from pork) where prices haven't gone up significantly in the past 20 years. Maybe you just missed it, but in 2008, when diesel price subsidies were removed, everything jumped significantly because of this "oil shock" effect. And of course Thailand has not been exempt from the worldwide food, energy and housing inflation of the past several years. Wage increases have filtered through to price increases across the board. Everything from appliance repair, car repair, dentist, medical, rent (I don't pay), electricity, postage, etc. has gone up. Also, if you have any need or appetite for anything imported be it clothes because you can't find your shoe size here or clothes that fit your physique comfortably, or enjoy any imported foods, all these have gone up. The only thing I can think of that hasn't gone up in the last 20 years is the annual visa fee.

 

The OP is 40 years old, and he didn't mention a pension. I assumed his estimates on what he could spend were based on savings. Even though there have been steep COL adjustments to many Western entitlement program pensions, most news reports I've read indicate that they've barely kept up with real inflation. Additionally, these programs seem to be under constant threat of either the retirement age being hiked or benefits being slashed, which is a contingency which someone in their 40's needs to plan for.

 

Another flaw I find in the advice you offered is the "you might die tomorrow" or "you're probably not going to live beyond age xxx" so you might as well throw caution to the wind line of thinking. Maybe some people have good reason to believe they won't make it past a certain age, but people do often end up living longer than they initially thought they would, and outliving your savings is not a very pleasant prospect for most.

 

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by Gecko123

[BritManToo]

27 minutes ago, Gecko123 said:

Another flaw I find in the advice you offered is the "you might die tomorrow" or "you're probably not going to live beyond age xxx" so you might as well throw caution to the wind line of thinking. Maybe some people have good reason to believe they won't make it past a certain age, but people do often end up living longer than they initially thought they would, and outliving your savings is not a very pleasant prospect for most.

Most of us have pensions, not only can't I outlive my pension but neither can my wife.

I use a lot of imported food, mostly cheaper now than in 2009.

Typhoo tea bags now 100bht/100, back in 2009 tea bags were 200bht/100 (and I couldn't buy the brand I wanted).

Cannabis very cheap now, I've replaced my daily alcohol (3x small beers = 100bht) with cannabis (0.5g = 15bht).

Electricity is much cheaper, I'm 80% solar, monthly bills down from 1500bht to 200bht.

Back in 2009 my entertainment was True (1,000bht+) and s/h books which were expensive, today I get all that and more for under 700bht (internet, books, movies, music, TV, HBO Go), probably 50% less than when I arrived.

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by BritManToo