Thai economy navigating a maze of challenges

[snoop1130]

 

The government recently sent a letter to the Council of State, its legal advisor, seeking its opinion on the proposed 500-billion-baht borrowing plan to fund the digital wallet scheme.

 

The current economic debate boils down to one question: Is the economy facing a crisis that needs a heavy-handed intervention from the government? Current indicators point to ups and downs for the economy.

 

The local stock market is sluggish and at new lows, suggesting low confidence in the financial markets about the path to economic recovery. Many market participants have lost confidence in the stock market despite the Finance Ministry launching the TESG fund, which is aimed at promoting long-term investment in securities and bonds issued by listed firms rated in the sustainability index of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, aligning with environmental, social and governance criteria. The government projects that 10 billion baht will flow into the stock market due to the establishment of the TESG fund.

 

Caption: Keeping economic activities open while whittling down the number of COVID-19 cases will be a major task before the authorities in 2022. (Photo by Dan Freeman)

 

Full story: Thai PBS 2023-12-13

 

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[StayinThailand2much]

Not to worry, as the TAT is predicting an economic boom thanks to mass-tourism (with the bets currently on 'domestic travellers')...

Edited December 13, 2023 by StayinThailand2much

[hotchilli]

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The current economic debate boils down to one question: Is the economy facing a crisis that needs a heavy-handed intervention from the government? Current indicators point to ups and downs for the economy.

More down at the moment.

[Mike Lister]

The SET is in the doldrums because foreign buyers have switched to US markets where the S&P is now at a record high following the Fed's announcement to cut rates three times in 2024. 

 

Tourism is on track for 28 million, that's not bad news by any measure.

 

Exports appear to have averaged around USD 24 bill a month since May, that's pretty good.

 

Foreign Currency Reserves are back up to USD 219 bill, that's over 9 months of trading when only 3 are required.

 

Government borrowings remain at 55% of GDP, the same level it was at 25 years ago.

 

Please tell me why and how the Thai economy is down. 

[itsari]

20 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

The SET is in the doldrums because foreign buyers have switched to US markets where the S&P is now at a record high following the Fed's announcement to cut rates three times in 2024. 

 

Tourism is on track for 28 million, that's not bad news by any measure.

 

Exports appear to have averaged around USD 24 bill a month since May, that's pretty good.

 

Foreign Currency Reserves are back up to USD 219 bill, that's over 9 months of trading when only 3 are required.

 

Government borrowings remain at 55% of GDP, the same level it was at 25 years ago.

 

Please tell me why and how the Thai economy is down. 

Best you ask the Thai workers on three to five hundred baht a day how the Thai economy is performing .

[Mike Lister]

1 minute ago, itsari said:

Best you ask the Thai workers on three to five hundred baht a day how the Thai economy is performing .

My question was not about the pay scales of workers in Thailand, my question was about the Thai economy. 

[smedly]

RED FLag

[itsari]

3 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

My question was not about the pay scales of workers in Thailand, my question was about the Thai economy. 

A good way to know how well a countries economy is performing is to look at how well the aged are cared for .

Thailand has amongst the worst pension schemes in Asia if not the world . 

Payments are from 600 to 1000 baht a month .

[Mike Lister]

1 minute ago, itsari said:

A good way to know how well a countries economy is performing is to look at how well the aged are cared for .

Thailand has amongst the worst pension schemes in Asia if not the world . 

Payments are from 600 to 1000 baht a month .

I'm sorry itsari but that's still not relevant to what's being discussed. The Thai pension or Social security system has been like that for a long time, similarly, wages for workers have been similar for ages. Those two things are not a sign of a good economy, they are a sign of a good government. If the economy was in the pits or if it was doing wonderful things and booming, those items would be exactly the same.

[mommysboy]

It's as bad as I've ever known it and I've been here 20 years.  Millions of ordinary people are just not making enough money to pay the bills, so domestic spending will be a real drag on the economy.  Add to that low tourist numbers and poor exports....

[BritScot]

7 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

The SET is in the doldrums because foreign buyers have switched to US markets where the S&P is now at a record high following the Fed's announcement to cut rates three times in 2024. 

 

Tourism is on track for 28 million, that's not bad news by any measure.

 

Exports appear to have averaged around USD 24 bill a month since May, that's pretty good.

 

Foreign Currency Reserves are back up to USD 219 bill, that's over 9 months of trading when only 3 are required.

 

Government borrowings remain at 55% of GDP, the same level it was at 25 years ago.

 

Please tell me why and how the Thai economy is down. 

And Peter Pan and Never Never Land are real holiday locations. Sorry but if you believe what comes from the Thai authorities you should invest every penny in Thai stocks.  I don't see any great announcement for the 75% of foreign investment that left Thailand after the last coup. Also the foreign currency reserves aren't being crowed about anymore. Then there is the gold mine compensation???

[Mike Lister]

27 minutes ago, BritScot said:

And Peter Pan and Never Never Land are real holiday locations. Sorry but if you believe what comes from the Thai authorities you should invest every penny in Thai stocks.  I don't see any great announcement for the 75% of foreign investment that left Thailand after the last coup. Also the foreign currency reserves aren't being crowed about anymore. Then there is the gold mine compensation???

Rubbish, do your homework.

 

https://app.bot.or.th/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=853&language=eng

[Mike Lister]

1 hour ago, BritScot said:

And Peter Pan and Never Never Land are real holiday locations. Sorry but if you believe what comes from the Thai authorities you should invest every penny in Thai stocks.  I don't see any great announcement for the 75% of foreign investment that left Thailand after the last coup. Also the foreign currency reserves aren't being crowed about anymore. Then there is the gold mine compensation???

And, compensation in the gold mining case is way under USD 1 bill., GDP of Thailand is USD 520 bill!, it's nothing.

 

https://hardstories.org/news/thailands-largest-gold-mine-reopens-as-thousands-seek-justice-in-class-action

[ourmanflint]

23 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

Rubbish, do your homework.

 

https://app.bot.or.th/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=853&language=eng

Thailand is not doing well, those tourism figures are not tourists, they are just border crossings for any reason not just tourism. Thai exports are down as %GDP

[Mike Lister]

6 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

Thailand is not doing well, those tourism figures are not tourists, they are just border crossings for any reason not just tourism. Thai exports are down as %GDP

The number of inbound tourists has been counted the same way for ever, if they are wrong currently, they were always wrong by a proportionate amount!

 

Exports are not expressed as a percentage of GDP, they are expressed as an actual amount or a year on year increase. Currently exports are up on the year, the fourth highest they have EVER been!

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Mike Lister

[ourmanflint]

6 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

The number of inbound tourists has been counted the same way for ever, if they are wrong currently, they were always wrong by a proportionate amount!

 

Exports are not expressed as a percentage of GDP, they are expressed as an actual amount or a year on year increase. Currently exports are up on the year, the fourth highest they have EVER been!

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

 

any increase is probably down to rice price increasing globally

[Mike Lister]

1 minute ago, ourmanflint said:

any increase is probably down to rice price increasing globally

Please post a source for your graphs, a link please.

 

The reason that exports are not expressed primarily as a percentage of GDP is because GDP can fluctuate which gives a misleading figure, as in the case of Consumer Loans as a percentage of GDP. They can of course be expressed that way but it is not a good representation, a USD figure is more representative..