Dow hits all-time high, closing above 37,000 for first time

[candide]

Another good news for the U.S.!

The United States is producing more oil than any country in history

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/19/business/us-production-oil-reserves-crude/index.html

 

"The United States is set to produce a global record of 13.3 million barrels per day of crude and condensate during the fourth quarter of this year, according to a report published Tuesday by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Last month, weekly US oil production hit 13.2 million barrels per day, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That’s just above the Donald Trump-era record of 13.1 million set in early 2020 just before the Covid-19 crisis sent output and prices crashing."

[illisdean]

On 12/17/2023 at 12:29 AM, Danderman123 said:

The Stock Market is voting for Biden.

Stock market should be be voting for Trump (should come as no surprise to anyone paying attention). Everything is better with Trump, check the job approvals and polls on who has more confidence in the economy, immigration, quality of life ("hurt vs helped" and so much more. Trump is leading Biden and  also should come as no surprise to anyone paying attention.

 

 

 Reference: Marketwatch In 1 Chart

[illisdean]

On 12/17/2023 at 12:29 AM, Danderman123 said:

The Stock Market is voting for Biden.

Stock market should be be voting for Trump (should come as no surprise to anyone paying attention). Everything is better with Trump, check the job approvals and polls on who has more confidence in the economy, immigration, quality of life ("hurt vs helped" and so much more. Trump is leading Biden and  also should come as no surprise to anyone paying attention.

 

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-stock-markets-performance-under-biden-is-worse-than-under-obama-and-trump-in-one-chart-65f73fb3

[Danderman123]

7 minutes ago, illisdean said:

Stock market should be be voting for Trump (should come as no surprise to anyone paying attention). Everything is better with Trump, check the job approvals and polls on who has more confidence in the economy, immigration, quality of life ("hurt vs helped" and so much more. Trump is leading Biden and  also should come as no surprise to anyone paying attention.

 

 

 Reference: Marketwatch In 1 Chart

The stock market is at an all time high, but that's not good enough for you.

[illisdean]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The stock market is at an all time high, but that's not good enough for you.

I cannot help you with your reading comprehension so have a look at the included pictures, the graphs, maybe you can get the details and facts straight and accept some reports as factually based. Maybe not though. You only see what you want to see, as long as it's negative Trump, so if you can post some photos of Biden doing something useful, coherent, intelligent and when he's not sitting on the beach, eating ice cream. sleeping all day only to wake up for lunch, it might be good therapy for you. Don't have to thank me for being helpful.

[Danderman123]

38 minutes ago, illisdean said:

I cannot help you with your reading comprehension so have a look at the included pictures, the graphs, maybe you can get the details and facts straight and accept some reports as factually based. Maybe not though. You only see what you want to see, as long as it's negative Trump, so if you can post some photos of Biden doing something useful, coherent, intelligent and when he's not sitting on the beach, eating ice cream. sleeping all day only to wake up for lunch, it might be good therapy for you. Don't have to thank me for being helpful.

Not photos, but facts:

 

https://stephensoncountydemocraticparty.com/blog/f/here-are-23-of-joe-biden’s-greatest-accomplishments-as-president

 

1. Passed the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package to increase investment in the national network of bridges and roads, airports, public transport and national broadband internet, as well as waterways and energy systems. 

2. Helped get more than 500 million life-saving COVID-19 vaccinations in the arms of Americans through the American Rescue Plan. 

3. Stopped a 30-year streak of federal inaction on gun violence by signing the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act that created enhanced background checks, closed the “boyfriend” loophole, and provided funds for youth mental health. 

4. Made a $369 billion investment in climate change, the largest in American history, through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. 

5. Ended the longest war in American history by pulling the troops out of Afghanistan.

6. Provided $10,000 to $20,000 in college debt relief to Americans with loans who make under $125,000 a year. This was struck down but the Supreme Court, however, the administration has announced a new plan to forgive billions in loans that were qualified under special programs but not done due to DOE mismanagement in previous years. Read the article above) 

7. Cut child poverty in half through the American Rescue Plan. 

8. Capped prescription drug prices at $2,000 per year for seniors on Medicare through the Inflation Reduction Act. 

9. Passed the COVID-19 relief deal that provided payments of up to $1,400 to many struggling U.S. citizens while supporting renters and increasing unemployment benefits. 

10. Achieved historically low unemployment rates after the pandemic caused them to skyrocket. 

11. Imposed a 15% minimum corporate tax on some of the largest corporations in the country, ensuring that they pay their fair share, as part of the historic Inflation Reduction Act.

12. Recommitted America to the global fight against climate change by rejoining the Paris Agreement. 

13. Strengthened the NATO alliance in support of Ukraine after the Russian invasion by endorsing the inclusion of world military powers Sweden and Finland. 

14. Authorized the assassination of the Al Qaeda terrorist Ayman al-Zawahiri, who became head of the organization after the death of Osama bin Laden. 

15. Gave Medicare the power to negotiate prescription drug prices through the Inflation Reduction Act while also reducing government health spending.

16. Held Vladimir Putin accountable for his invasion of Ukraine by imposing stiff economic sanctions. 

17. Boosted the budget of the Internal Revenue Service by nearly $80 billion to reduce tax evasion and increase revenue. 

18. Created more jobs in one year (6.6 million) than any other president in U.S. history. 

19. Reduced healthcare premiums under the Affordable Care Act by $800 a year as part of the American Rescue Plan. 

20. Signed the PACT Act to address service members’ exposure to burn pits and other toxins. 

21. Signed the CHIPS and Science Act to strengthen American manufacturing and innovation. 

22. Reauthorized the Violence Against Women Act through 2027. 

23. Halted all federal executions after the previous administration reinstated them after a 17-year freeze 

[illisdean]

9 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

5. Ended the longest war in American history by pulling the troops out of Afghanistan.

And was responsible for the deaths of 13 service members and never taking responsibility for NOTHING, Biden is a feckless coward. Throw in no less than 100K fentanyl deaths, child sex trafficking due to Biden's border insurrection. A humanitarian and national security crisis never seen before until your demented savior showed up. 

[illisdean]

15 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

16. Held Vladimir Putin accountable for his invasion of Ukraine by imposing stiff economic sanctions. 

Have you checked how much revenue Putin is making now, since Bidens wimpy sanctions have done nothing but embolden and empower the likes of Russia, Iran, hamas....the cartels ....when does it end with this corrupt vegetable. If you checked before making a fool of yourself again you might know Putin is seeing higher oil revenues than before the war with UA.

[illisdean]

11 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

7. Cut child poverty in half through the American Rescue Plan. 

Child poverty has more than doubled.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/12/joe-biden-anti-poverty-economics-00115217

 

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, illisdean said:

Child poverty has more than doubled.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/12/joe-biden-anti-poverty-economics-00115217

 

Maybe you should do more than read the headlines. Childhood poverty more than doubled from record lows because...

We cut child poverty to historic lows, then let it rebound faster than ever before
The expanded child tax credit was a well-tested solution to child poverty. Bring it back.

Child poverty hits record low in 2021, then more than doubles in 2022 after federal programs expire.

"Which is what makes this frustrating: policymakers saw this coming, watched it happen, and were able to do nothing about it. It wasn’t for lack of effort: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) was the swing vote that blocked the rest of the Democratic Party’s effort to make the program permanent, on the empirically refuted idea that unconditional cash to low-income families will get spent on drugs. The data shows that for the year the program was in effect, parents spent most of the money on food, clothes, utilities, rent, and education costs."

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/9/21/23882353/child-poverty-expanded-child-tax-credit-census-welfare-inflation-economy-data

[Danderman123]

51 minutes ago, illisdean said:

And was responsible for the deaths of 13 service members and never taking responsibility for NOTHING, Biden is a feckless coward. Throw in no less than 100K fentanyl deaths, child sex trafficking due to Biden's border insurrection. A humanitarian and national security crisis never seen before until your demented savior showed up. 

How many Fentanyl deaths under Trump?

 

Didn't Trump promise to get us out of Afghanistan?  Yeah, he failed. How US soldiers died in Afghanistan while Trump was president? Did he take responsibility for their deaths?

 

Your point about child sex trafficking at the border holds for Trump, too.

 

As for humanitarian crises, your panties are in bun because FOX News has you all excited. Look! Another caravan is coming!

 

You have basically posted a Trump class loony tunes rant, a Gish Gallop of unproven claims. I hope posting that made you frel better.

 

 

[candide]

1 hour ago, illisdean said:

Have you checked how much revenue Putin is making now, since Bidens wimpy sanctions have done nothing but embolden and empower the likes of Russia, Iran, hamas....the cartels ....when does it end with this corrupt vegetable. If you checked before making a fool of yourself again you might know Putin is seeing higher oil revenues than before the war with UA.

So now Biden is responsible for global wholesale oil prices! I didn't know he was that powerful. Is he also responsible for snow in winter?

[candide]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

How many Fentanyl deaths under Trump?

 

Didn't Trump promise to get us out of Afghanistan?  Yeah, he failed. How US soldiers died in Afghanistan while Trump was president? Did he take responsibility for their deaths?

 

Your point about child sex trafficking at the border holds for Trump, too.

 

As for humanitarian crises, your panties are in bun because FOX News has you all excited. Look! Another caravan is coming!

 

You have basically posted a Trump class loony tunes rant, a Gish Gallop of unproven claims. I hope posting that made you frel better.

 

 

It could well be that Trump was aware his plan was <deleted> up, and that's why he put the withdrawal date after elections.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, illisdean said:

I cannot help you with your reading comprehension so have a look at the included pictures, the graphs, maybe you can get the details and facts straight and accept some reports as factually based. Maybe not though. You only see what you want to see, as long as it's negative Trump, so if you can post some photos of Biden doing something useful, coherent, intelligent and when he's not sitting on the beach, eating ice cream. sleeping all day only to wake up for lunch, it might be good therapy for you. Don't have to thank me for being helpful.

What's nutty about that chart is that the underlying assumption that the price of stocks should keep on increasing at a rate faster than earnings. Do you think that as the ration grows they won't be tethered at all to reality?. Are you familiar with the concept of the ratio of stock price to earnings? Do ya think that ratio should go increasing forever?

[Isaan sailor]

US stocks up—Thai Baht up.

US stocks down—Thai Baht down.

 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

US stocks up—Thai Baht up.

US stocks down—Thai Baht down.

 

Well, in this case that makes sense. If the Feds look like they're going to lower the interest rates, then stock should go up and so should the Baht because that makes the dollar a less attractive currency.

If US stocks go down and the Baht go down, that's because the Feds might not be lowering it as fast as some hoped.

Also, correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation. Just now, the Feds change in attitude is big news. Tomorrow it could be something else.

[Danderman123]

11 hours ago, illisdean said:

I cannot help you with your reading comprehension so have a look at the included pictures, the graphs, maybe you can get the details and facts straight

How high does the stock market have to go before you give Biden credit?

 

Please don't respond with spam about Hunter Biden or Biden's dog.

[impulse]

12 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The stock market is at an all time high, but that's not good enough for you.

 

How many shares of stock does it cost today to buy a house, or even a hamburger?

 

Simple answer:  More than it did in January, 2021.

 

[Mike Lister]

Just now, impulse said:

 

How many shares of stock does it cost today to buy a house, or even a hamburger?

 

Simple answer:  More than it did in January, 2021.

 

Er, which shares, not FANG stocks and others it doesn't!

[impulse]

17 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

Er, which shares, not FANG stocks and others it doesn't!

 

I find it hard to believe that any wide index of stock values has grown faster than the monthly cost of financing a house, given the price inflation and interest rate increases.  

[Mike Lister]

2 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

I find it hard to believe that any wide index of stock values has grown faster than the monthly cost of financing a house, given the price inflation and interest rate increases.  

The US S&P grew by 11.95% over the past twelve months whereas the average rate on a US 30-year fixed mortgage was at 6.67% as of December 21st,

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/30-year-mortgage-rate

https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500#:~:text=S%26P 500 is at a,11.95% from one year ago.

[Danderman123]

41 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

How many shares of stock does it cost today to buy a house, or even a hamburger?

 

Simple answer:  More than it did in January, 2021.

 

For you, the metric seems to be share prices increasing more than the inflation rate.

[Mike Lister]

22 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

I find it hard to believe that any wide index of stock values has grown faster than the monthly cost of financing a house, given the price inflation and interest rate increases.  

The stock markets are a forward looking view of how the economy will fare in the future. 

 

Mortgage borrowing rates are based on the current prime/base rate which is a view of current inflation, hence, the two items are not comparable views.

[Isaan sailor]

14 hours ago, placeholder said:

Well, in this case that makes sense. If the Feds look like they're going to lower the interest rates, then stock should go up and so should the Baht because that makes the dollar a less attractive currency.

If US stocks go down and the Baht go down, that's because the Feds might not be lowering it as fast as some hoped.

Also, correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation. Just now, the Feds change in attitude is big news. Tomorrow it could be something else.

Thanks for your detailed explanation of the US stocks up—Baht up on USD theory.  One has to wonder what would happen if and when the Fed reduces interest rates:  will USD nosedive another 7%, or even more (as it has done since Oct 4) or have currency traders already baked in their shorting for a rate reduction next year?  No can say with any certainty, but traders like to stay ahead of the curve.  We shall see…

[placeholder]

On 12/27/2023 at 6:28 AM, impulse said:

 

How many shares of stock does it cost today to buy a house, or even a hamburger?

 

Simple answer:  More than it did in January, 2021.

 

How much did it cost to buy a house or a hamburger on Dec 27, 2019. Simple answer: More than it did in January, 2017.

If prices start going down on a mass scale, that means you've got deflation, which is rarely, if ever, a good thing for an economy. Right now, China is experiencing that and the Chinese govt is not happy about it. 

You forget to note that wages have also gone up. Wage gains have been outpacing inflation since February of 2023. Yes, housing prices have gone up. But that's largely because housing wasn't being built much during the covid pandemic. So there's a backlog of demand. And, of course, the Fed has raised interest rates. 

[Mike Lister]

On 12/26/2023 at 10:20 PM, placeholder said:

Well, in this case that makes sense. If the Feds look like they're going to lower the interest rates, then stock should go up and so should the Baht because that makes the dollar a less attractive currency.

If US stocks go down and the Baht go down, that's because the Feds might not be lowering it as fast as some hoped.

Also, correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation. Just now, the Feds change in attitude is big news. Tomorrow it could be something else.

 

On 12/26/2023 at 8:48 PM, Isaan sailor said:

US stocks up—Thai Baht up.

US stocks down—Thai Baht down.

 

 

Actually, no that doesn't make sense, at least not for the reasons stated!

 

The value of USD rises on the Dollar Index, as the US Fed rates increase. This is because investors are able to get a better risk free return on cash rather than a risk inherent return on equities....this causes equity markets to fall. The Fed rate increases also push up bond yields which also provide a lower risk investment return. The value of THB (to USD and/or USD connected currencies) falls as the value of USD increases and vica versa. The value of THB does NOT change as a direct consequence of the direction of US equity markets, as said above, correlation does not necessarily mean causation.

 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Mike Lister said:

 

 

Actually, no that doesn't make sense, at least not for the reasons stated!

 

The value of USD rises on the Dollar Index, as the US Fed rates increase. This is because investors are able to get a better risk free return on cash rather than a risk inherent return on equities....this causes equity markets to fall. The Fed rate increases also push up bond yields which also provide a lower risk investment return. The value of THB (to USD and/or USD connected currencies) falls as the value of USD increases and vica versa. The value of THB does NOT change as a direct consequence of the direction of US equity markets, as said above, correlation does not necessarily mean causation.

 

I didn't write that stocks make the baht go down. Rather that the rise and fall of the interest rates on bonds has the tendency to make stocks & bonds go react inversely.

[Mike Lister]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

I didn't write that stocks make the baht go down. Rather that the rise and fall of the interest rates on bonds has the tendency to make stocks & bonds go react inversely.

You didn't but the other poster did, I thought it sensible to include both of your posts in my reply.

 

Bonds don't have interest rates, bonds have yields which are determined by the Fed rate. As the Fed rates increase, new bonds are issued with rates that reflect the higher rate. The value of bonds are inversely corelated to their yields, it is not bond yields that drives equities markets, it is Fed interest rates. The key to both markets, bonds and equities, is the Fed rate.

[Mike Lister]

"Another important difference between stocks and bonds is that they tend to have an inverse relationship in terms of price — when stock prices rise, bonds prices fall, and vice versa.

Historically, when stock prices are rising and more people are buying to capitalize on that growth, bond prices have typically fallen on lower demand. Conversely, when stock prices are falling and investors want to turn to traditionally lower-risk, lower-return investments such as bonds, their demand increases, and in turn, their prices.

Bond performance is also closely tied to interest rates. For example, if you buy a bond with a 2% yield, it could become more valuable if interest rates drop, because newly issued bonds would have a lower yield than yours. On the other hand, higher interest rates could mean newly issued bonds have a higher yield than yours, lowering demand for your bond, and in turn, its value.

To stimulate spending, the Federal Reserve typically cuts interest rates during economic downturns — periods that are usually worse for many stocks. But the lower interest rates will send the value of existing bonds higher, reinforcing the inverse price dynamic".

 

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/stocks-vs-bonds

[Mike Lister]

On 12/27/2023 at 1:24 PM, Isaan sailor said:

Thanks for your detailed explanation of the US stocks up—Baht up on USD theory.  One has to wonder what would happen if and when the Fed reduces interest rates:  will USD nosedive another 7%, or even more (as it has done since Oct 4) or have currency traders already baked in their shorting for a rate reduction next year?  No can say with any certainty, but traders like to stay ahead of the curve.  We shall see…

When the Fed reduces interest rates (not if they do), the value of USD will fall on the US Dollar Index as investors move out of USD into better performing currencies that offer higher interest rates, and/or, into other markets in other currencies where the return is higher, eg, overseas exchanges or bonds etc.  USD is currently at 102%. Just as an example, it spent 10 years around 80%, ending in 2015. Thereafter it was under 100% for several years.

 

The value of USD moves on the DI as the basket of five core currencies move. Traders can take a view on what those movements might be in the future but trying to short USD under those circumstances, especially when the date and extent of any reduction is unknown, is highly unlikely to any meaningful degree hence no again, it is not baked in.