The Investing Year Ahead

[Mike Lister]

23 hours ago, Startmeup said:

Whats the current annual yield on this, Must check it out.
What is the yield in the money markets?  I am >30% cash right now and I get 4.83% on that through IB in USD cash account. I often take short term bets when I see an opportunity so being liquid is a factor for me but would be willing to tie some up if I got >6-8%. Latam is super cheap, Brazil and Columbia gave me most of my returns the last 12-18 months. 
There is some double digit yielding companies (dividends + buybacks) trading on <4 PE ratios with modest earnings assumptions that are very solid companies. 

Money market yields depend on the currency, they are all different.

 

Long term bond Index funds like the VG Agg are good in a falling interest rate environment but you have to get in and out at the right time.

 

My tip is to either, buy a global tracker such as HSBC FTSE All World, buy and forget, or, find a decent Fund Manager whose got a good track record and buy his global equities fund, sit back and let him do the work. Either way, throwing darts at a list of 10,000 companies and hoping you'll hit a winner is far worse than Vegas odds. My 10 cents.

[Startmeup]

38 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

Money market yields depend on the currency, they are all different.

 

Long term bond Index funds like the VG Agg are good in a falling interest rate environment but you have to get in and out at the right time.

 

My tip is to either, buy a global tracker such as HSBC FTSE All World, buy and forget, or, find a decent Fund Manager whose got a good track record and buy his global equities fund, sit back and let him do the work. Either way, throwing darts at a list of 10,000 companies and hoping you'll hit a winner is far worse than Vegas odds. My 10 cents.

I prefer to pick my own stocks and manage my portfolio myself right now.

Will likely transition to a fund if the fund I want to invest in opens to new capital again in the future.

 

[Mike Lister]

The S&P is set for a correction I think, how deep is uncertain. But what is certain is that all good things come to an end.

 

US earnings are up 4.4%, not bad at all. 

 

China is still looking messy but there's lots of good buying opportunities to be had.

 

I see India has now surpassed the HK exchange as the fourth largest, it's the way of the future I imagine.

 

 

[Yellowtail]

6 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

The S&P is set for a correction I think, how deep is uncertain. But what is certain is that all good things come to an end.

 

US earnings are up 4.4%, not bad at all. 

 

China is still looking messy but there's lots of good buying opportunities to be had.

 

I see India has now surpassed the HK exchange as the fourth largest, it's the way of the future I imagine.

 

 

I think you're right about India. 

[swissie]

On 2/1/2024 at 4:24 PM, swissie said:

I am starting to roll on the floor with convultions. Starting to resemble the Dutch "Tulip Mania" with a P/E of 116. "Tops" what services they provide today. But nothing what a hungry competition can not also achieve over time.

Talking about NVIDIA: According to a recent Bank of America study, the value of NVIDIA is now equivalent of ALL THE STOCKS TRADED ON THE HONG KONG STOCK EXCHANGE !!!

Welcome to the "Tulip Mania" of 2024.

[Yellowtail]

10 hours ago, swissie said:

Talking about NVIDIA: According to a recent Bank of America study, the value of NVIDIA is now equivalent of ALL THE STOCKS TRADED ON THE HONG KONG STOCK EXCHANGE !!!

Welcome to the "Tulip Mania" of 2024.

A lot of people got rich on Tulips

[watgate]

More then 80% of the trading in the stock market is being done by huge sophisticated companies using technology which can execute 90,000 stock trades a second. They literally can buy and sell and work on  spreads in pennies per trade.

[Yellowtail]

8 minutes ago, watgate said:

More then 80% of the trading in the stock market is being done by huge sophisticated companies using technology which can execute 90,000 stock trades a second. They literally can buy and sell and work on  spreads in pennies per trade.

And? 

[Yellowtail]

At 90,000 a second, all of an average day's trades on the NYSE would be done in under half a minute. 

[paddypower]

23 hours ago, watgate said:

More then 80% of the trading in the stock market is being done by huge sophisticated companies using technology which can execute 90,000 stock trades a second. They literally can buy and sell and work on  spreads in pennies per trade.

I agree. A good example is quantitative analysis, invented by Bob Mercer. His billions (which he used to finance Trump's win, right wing media & the Brexit disaster)  comes from secret computer science/speech translation programs, using pattern recognition). In short,  these practitioners of 'the dark arts' can discover obscure patters in the financial markets and make enormous fortunes (up to 80% per year) from nothing. What I call 'Smoke and Mirrors'

[paddypower]

On 2/12/2024 at 9:17 AM, Yellowtail said:

And? 

the odds are stacked against you - you might as well go to Las Vegas.

[Mike Lister]

3 minutes ago, paddypower said:

the odds are stacked against you - you might as well go to Las Vegas.

No, silly!

 

Just because others win big, doesn't mean that some can't win to a lesser degree. Most non-professional investors manage to turn a profit most years, as long as it's more than inflation it was worthwhile having, it was more than inflation and the bank rate, it was definitely a win. Like many others, I've seen return in excess of 20% in the past decade plus it's fun earning it also. In Vegas the odds are stacked against you, over time you will lose, not so on equities markets. 

[Yellowtail]

7 minutes ago, paddypower said:

the odds are stacked against you - you might as well go to Las Vegas.

I lived in Vegas back in the '70s, the market has been much better for me. 

[Yellowtail]

2 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

No, silly!

 

Just because others win big, doesn't mean that some can't win to a lesser degree. Most non-professional investors manage to turn a profit most years, as long as it's more than inflation it was worthwhile having, it was more than inflation and the bank rate, it was definitely a win. Like many others, I've seen return in excess of 20% in the past decade plus it's fun earning it also. In Vegas the odds are stacked against you, over time you will lose, not so on equities markets. 

 

And in Vegas, the odds are constant, and (almost) always negative. 

 

With investments, the odds are variable, and (almost) always positive, at least in the long term. 

 

I think dude just had no response when asked about his post, he just threw that out. 

[1FinickyOne]

On 1/2/2024 at 9:38 AM, Mike Lister said:

That's not the question I'm asking! I'm asking what are the pro's and con's that will effect the performance of the S&P this year, which covers only a variable portion of my investment portfolio.

profits, trends and interest rates...

 

mostly interest rates - and it is an election year... I went heavy [for me] back into the market the end of October... lucky timing helps. 

[Thailand J]

US tech sector is the mother lode. Make sure you have some exposure in  your portfolio. Probably I have overloaded but the risk is rewarded.

I cant resist NVIDIA, bought 440 sh at $598/sh 3 weeks ago, it's up 20% closed at $720.

 

 

[GarryP]

30 minutes ago, Thailand J said:

US tech sector is the mother lode. Make sure you have some exposure in  your portfolio. Probably I have overloaded but the risk is rewarded.

I cant resist NVIDIA, bought 440 sh at $598/sh 3 weeks ago, it's up 20% closed at $720.

 

 

Wish I had that amount of money to invest. I'll just ride the tech wave with my Innotech mutual fund. Up 112.89%, but that is over about 7 years.  Also up 15% on India over 4 months. But don't ask me about China, I'm down 51%.  

[noobexpat]

51 minutes ago, Thailand J said:

US tech sector is the mother lode. Make sure you have some exposure in  your portfolio. Probably I have overloaded but the risk is rewarded.

I cant resist NVIDIA, bought 440 sh at $598/sh 3 weeks ago, it's up 20% closed at $720.

 

 

 

I would be prematurely aging the moment i pressed the enter key!

Good luck.

 

I don't buy single stocks, i like being the tortoise investor. 

[Mike Lister]

1 minute ago, noobexpat said:

 

I would be prematurely aging the moment i pressed the enter key!

Good luck.

 

I don't buy single stocks, i like being the tortoise investor. 

You me both! Slowly slowly catchee monkey.

[Thailand J]

My best performing investment in in MSFT, up 400% in about 9 years.

 

[Mike Lister]

That's much more ambitious than anything I have done, I usually count on doubling my investment every five years which leaves me happy and in the lower risk zone. But much of that is an age factor, if I was in my twenties I might play with tech. 

[Thailand J]

Learn to invest with the patience of a tiger. identify the mother lode, buy a few index funds, hold for years. NOt like a curious cat, distracted by anything shinny all over the world.

That's was how I manage  accounts but NVIDIA is too "shinny".

 

[noobexpat]

4 minutes ago, Thailand J said:

My best performing investment in in MSFT, up 400% in about 9 years.

 

 

Impressive!! ...the stress would kill me 55

I don't have the personality for this approach.

[Thailand J]

23 minutes ago, noobexpat said:

 

Impressive!! ...the stress would kill me 55

I don't have the personality for this approach.

You are right, it can be nerve wrecking  when the market is down.

The biggest danger is panic  selling , which has not happened to me yet 55.

 

[Mike Lister]

‘Peak Euphoria’ Warning Blares as Stress Vanishes on Wall Street

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/asia

 

I like that term, peak euphoria, it must be time to hit the "sell all" button.

[Mike Lister]

Interesting article (no pictures)

 

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

 

Year	Nominal GDP (trillions)	Real GDP (trillions)	GDP Growth Rate	Events Affecting GDP
1929	$0.105	$1.109	NA	Depression began
1930	$0.092	$1.015	-8.5%	Smoot-Hawley
1931	$0.077	$0.950	-6.4%	Dust Bowl
1932	$0.060	$0.828	-12.9%	Hoover tax hikes
1933	$0.057	$0.817	-1.2%	New Deal
1934	$0.067	$0.906	10.8%	U.S. debt rose
1935	$0.074	$0.986	8.9%	Social Security
1936	$0.085	$1.113	12.9%	FDR tax hikes
1937	$0.093	$1.170	5.1%	Depression returned
1938	$0.087	$1.132	-3.3%	Depression ended
1939	$0.093	$1.222	8.0%	WWII, Dust Bowl ended
1940	$0.103	$1.330	8.8%	Defense increased
1941	$0.129	$1.566	17.7%	Pearl Harbor
1942	$0.166	$1.862	18.9%
1943	$0.203	$2.178	17.0%	Defense spending tripled
1944	$0.224	$2.352	8.0%	Bretton Woods
1945	$0.228	$2.329	-1.0%	WWII ended, recession
1946	$0.228	$2.058	-11.6%	Truman budget cuts
1947	$0.250	$2.035	-1.1%	Cold War began
1948	$0.275	$2.119	4.1%	Recession
1949	$0.273	$2.107	-0.6%	NATO, Fair Deal
1950	$0.300	$2.290	8.7%	Korean War
1951	$0.347	$2.474	8.0%
1952	$0.367	$2.575	4.1%
1953	$0.389	$2.696	4.7%	War ended, recession
1954	$0.391	$2.680	-0.6%	Dow returned to 1929 high
1955	$0.426	$2.871	7.1%
1956	$0.449	$2.932	2.1%
1957	$0.474	$2.994	2.1%	Recession
1958	$0.481	$2.972	-0.7%	Recession ended
1959	$0.522	$3.178	6.9%	Fed raised rates
1960	$0.542	$3.260	2.6%	Recession
1961	$0.562	$3.344	2.6%	JFK ended recession
1962	$0.604	$3.548	6.1%
1963	$0.638	$3.703	4.4%
1964	$0.685	$3.916	5.8%	LBJ's Medicare, Medicaid
1965	$0.742	$4.171	6.5%
1966	$0.813	$4.446	6.6%	Vietnam War
1967	$0.860	$4.568	2.7%
1968	$0.941	$4.792	4.9%	Moon landing
1969	$1.018	$4.942	3.1%	Nixon took office
1970	$1.073	$4.951	0.2%	Recession
1971	$1.165	$5.114	3.3%	Wage-price controls
1972	$1.279	$5.383	5.3%	Stagflation
1973	$1.425	$5.687	5.6%	End of gold standard
1974	$1.545	$5.657	-0.5%	Watergate
1975	$1.685	$5.645	-0.2%	Recession ended
1976	$1.873	$5.949	5.4%	Fed lowered rates
1977	$2.082	$6.224	4.6%
1978	$2.352	$6.569	5.5%	Fed's 20% rate hike ended inflation
1979	$2.627	$6.777	3.2%	Recession
1980	$2.857	$6.759	-0.3%
1981	$3.207	$6.931	2.5%	Reagan tax cuts
1982	$3.344	$6.806	-1.8%	Recession ended
1983	$3.634	$7.118	4.6%	Tax hike and defense spending
1984	$4.038	$7.633	7.2%
1985	$4.339	$7.951	4.2%
1986	$4.580	$8.226	3.5%	Tax cut
1987	$4.855	$8.511	3.5%	Black Monday
1988	$5.236	$8.867	4.2%	Fed raised rates
1989	$5.642	$9.192	3.7%	S&L Crisis
1990	$5.963	$9.366	1.9%	Recession
1991	$6.158	$9.355	-0.1%
1992	$6.520	$9.685	3.5%	NAFTA drafted
1993	$6.859	$9.952	2.8%	Balanced Budget Act
1994	$7.287	$10.352	4.0%
1995	$7.640	$10.630	2.7%	Fed raised rates
1996	$8.073	$11.031	3.8%	Welfare reform
1997	$8.578	$11.522	4.4%
1998	$9.063	$12.038	4.5%	LTCM crisis
1999	$9.631	$12.611	4.8%	Repeal of Glass-Steagall
2000	$10.252	$13.131	4.1%	Tech bubble burst
2001	$10.582	$13.262	1.0%	9/11 attacks
2002	$10.936	$13.493	1.7%	War on Terror
2003	$11.458	$13.879	2.9%	Iraq War, JGTRRA
2004	$12.214	$14.406	3.8%
2005	$13.037	$14.913	3.5%	Katrina, Bankruptcy Act
2006	$13.815	$15.338	2.9%	Fed raised rates
2007	$14.452	$15.626	1.9%	Bank crisis
2008	$14.713	$15.605	-0.1%	Financial Crisis
2009	$14.449	$15.209	-2.5%	Stimulus Act
2010	$14.992	$15.599	2.6%	ACA, Dodd-Frank
2011	$15.543	$15.841	1.6%	Japan earthquake
2012	$16.197	$16.197	2.2%	Fiscal cliff
2013	$16.785	$16.495	1.8%	Sequestration
2014	$17.527	$16.912	2.5%	QE ends
2015	$18.238	$17.432	3.1%	TPP, Iran deal
2016	$18.745	$17.731	1.7%	Presidential race
2017	$19.543	$18.144	2.3%	Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA)
2018	$20.612	$18.688	3.0%	Deficit spending
2019	$21,433	$19,092	2.2%	Trade war
2020	$20,893	$18,384	-3.4%	Covid-19 pandemic
2021	$22,996	$19,427	5.7%	Covid-19 vaccine

[Mike Lister]

A Bloomberg piece, syndicated:

 

"Record US stock rally in danger in a world of turmoil".

 

https://biz.crast.net/record-us-stock-rally-in-danger-in-a-world-of-turmoil/

[swissie]

Looking back, diversyfied Long Therm investors could not have lost. As opposed to "traders". The statistics of my broker tell me that 76% of traders lose money.

Exeption: Investors, having bougt the Nikkey 225 in 1989 had to wait over 30 years to break even.

Unfortunately, at a certain age, long term investing becomes questionable, as time is no more on ones side. Especially now, when everything looks "pricy", and especially if there are no worthy heirs around.

What should I do? Start trading and lose money and crying in my pretzels, or should I invest in the charms of the ladies at "Lulu's Bar and Grill"?

[ozimoron]

2 minutes ago, swissie said:

Looking back, diversyfied Long Therm investors could not have lost. As opposed to "traders". The statistics of my broker tell me that 76% of traders lose money.

Exeption: Investors, having bougt the Nikkey 225 in 1989 had to wait over 30 years to break even.

Unfortunately, at a certain age, long term investing becomes questionable, as time is no more on ones side. Especially now, when everything looks "pricy", and especially if there are no worthy heirs around.

What should I do? Start trading and lose money and crying in my pretzels, or should I invest in the charms of the ladies at "Lulu's Bar and Grill"?

 

I'd go with Lulu's. YOLO. Right now, what doesn't look pricey is oil. Pullbacks from it's current price of 0.77 look like a gift. I think the ME issue won't go away anytime soon.

[Yellowtail]

54 minutes ago, swissie said:

Looking back, diversyfied Long Therm investors could not have lost. As opposed to "traders". The statistics of my broker tell me that 76% of traders lose money.

Exeption: Investors, having bougt the Nikkey 225 in 1989 had to wait over 30 years to break even.

Unfortunately, at a certain age, long term investing becomes questionable, as time is no more on ones side. Especially now, when everything looks "pricy", and especially if there are no worthy heirs around.

What should I do? Start trading and lose money and crying in my pretzels, or should I invest in the charms of the ladies at "Lulu's Bar and Grill"?

 

At your age, I recommend investing in houses and lots. Whorehouses and lots of booze.