Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[thaibeachlovers]

9 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I don't think ot matters much who wins now if you are out of men , the ammo and kit had dried up as donor nations have run out of stuff in storage or want what's left for themselves.Whilst western private arms industry can't reestablish long mothballed production lines (certainly in the case of artillery) or scale up in any meaningful time scale then we are entering the end game. If Biden's smart he will nudge Zelenkiy to the finishing line before elections in the US so he can claim that victory for the Dems rather than let Trump have it soon after if he wins.

If Biden's smart he will nudge Zelenkiy to the finishing line before elections in the US so he can claim that victory for the Dems rather than let Trump have it soon after if he wins.

 

In a better world, but our world is run by the likes of Biden and Zelensky. Not for the first time in history, a better option may be lost to human hubris.

[thaibeachlovers]

9 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

Difference between Russia and the west, IMO, is that Russia is in survival mode and is more on a war footing than the west, which is pretending that the war isn't affecting them. I assume that is why no western politician has declared that weapons manufacturing must be ramped up, which I can't see succeeding without convincing the voters that they are in a survival situation.

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

There's a triple lock apparently UK,France and the US. Starmer would neber go rogue against the US under any circumstances. But no harm in Zelenskiy asking , which he obvioulsy has but it's a US red line, with good reasons. Putin has threatened to supply the Houthis with advanced air to ship missiles and set the Red Sea on fire. Gas prices to the moon isn't a Democratcic election strategy but it is Trump's.

 

https://archive.ph/3O4N1

 

LOL. To read some posts on here Russia can barely cobble together missiles with washing machine components, so the idea that Russia has "advanced air to ship missiles" must be shock!

[beautifulthailand99]

1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Difference between Russia and the west, IMO, is that Russia is in survival mode and is more on a war footing than the west, which is pretending that the war isn't affecting them. I assume that is why no western politician has declared that weapons manufacturing must be ramped up, which I can't see succeeding without convincing the voters that they are in a survival situation.

Over on the army forum when the head of the British Army said we need to be ready for war within 3 years they are openly mocking that saying we can't even stop dinghies in the Channel so not much chance of stopping Russia.

 

https://archive.ph/RuG5P

 

In his first major statement since assuming the role last month, the former SAS officer said Britain must be able to “deter or fight a war in three years”.

He warned that in the second half of this decade, Russia, China and Iran could unite to put the West under pressure and achieve their individual goals.

Sir Roly pointed to a scenario whereby a “very, very dangerous” Russia emerges from Ukraine, either defeated or as victor, China invades Taiwan and Iran becomes more aggressive.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Over on the army forum when the head of the British Army said we need to be ready for war within 3 years they are openly mocking that saying we can't even stop dinghies in the Channel so not much chance of stopping Russia.

 

https://archive.ph/RuG5P

 

In his first major statement since assuming the role last month, the former SAS officer said Britain must be able to “deter or fight a war in three years”.

He warned that in the second half of this decade, Russia, China and Iran could unite to put the West under pressure and achieve their individual goals.

Sir Roly pointed to a scenario whereby a “very, very dangerous” Russia emerges from Ukraine, either defeated or as victor, China invades Taiwan and Iran becomes more aggressive.

While I agree with the mockers that Britain will never be able to resurrect an equivalent of BAOR ( no money left to do so, and fat boys don't want to join the military ), but IMO he has it 100% correct to be concerned that Russia will emerge stronger, better armed, and more invigorated than the west, which hides behind the myth that NATO will protect us. All NATO has, IMO, is MAD.

[RayC]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That could change if Zelensky thinks Harris might win. I doubt she will have a different policy to Biden.

If that happens it will be bad luck for the Ukrainians that will die in the war.

 

Why do you always frame your comments so it appears that only Ukraine is suffering casualties? 

 

It's a rhetorical question.

[RayC]

38 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

While I agree with the mockers that Britain will never be able to resurrect an equivalent of BAOR ( no money left to do so, and fat boys don't want to join the military ), but IMO he has it 100% correct to be concerned that Russia will emerge stronger, better armed, and more invigorated than the west, which hides behind the myth that NATO will protect us. All NATO has, IMO, is MAD.

 

But why should the West worry?

 

After all, there are many posters on this forum who continually tell us that this war is all the fault of the EU/ NATO/ the US (add to/ delete as necessary), that Russia is merely protecting her own interests and is not the slightest bit in expansionism.

[stevenl]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Difference between Russia and the west, IMO, is that Russia is in survival mode and is more on a war footing than the west, which is pretending that the war isn't affecting them. I assume that is why no western politician has declared that weapons manufacturing must be ramped up, which I can't see succeeding without convincing the voters that they are in a survival situation.

Wrong, western politicians have declared weapons manufacturing must be ramped up.

[Bkk Brian]

Russia's double tap terror tactics at work again

 

Russia launches 'double-tap' attack on rescue workers in Sumy Oblast

Russian forces launched a "double-tap" attack on first responders as they were curbing the aftermath of the previous attack in Sumy Oblast on July 21, the State Emergency Service said.

Overnight, Russian forces launched a large-scale attack with 39 drones and five missiles across Ukraine. At least one missile successfully hit critical infrastructure in Sumy Oblast, and two drones were downed over the region, according to local authorities.

Russian troops also shelled Sumy Oblast 20 times overnight with mortars, and deployed mines and FPV (first-person view) drones, causing 44 explosions, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported. No casualties had been reported at the time of publication.

https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-double-tap-attack-on-rescue-workers-in-sumy-oblast/

[rabas]

The Russian economy has 3 parts, Putin's war, Putin's supporters, and the broader civil economy of the other 140M Russians, about which Putin's couldn't care less. According to many Russians, some I have presented here, the ongoing demise of Russia's civil economy will bring deep, long lasting damage to Russia and the lives of average Russians. 

 

How bad is it? 

 

Valentina Bondarenko, is the Leading Researcher of the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Economics and Director of the N. D. Kondratieff International Foundation, and well known for her publications. 

 

Guess we won't hear anymore bad news from her...

Edited July 24 by rabas

[Mavideol]

and more good news

Ukraine-Russia latest: Kyiv destroys Putin’s last Crimea railway ferry as new Russian base appears near front

https://au.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-live-joint-033914158.html

 

[beautifulthailand99]

2 hours ago, rabas said:

The Russian economy has 3 parts, Putin's war, Putin's supporters, and the broader civil economy of the other 140M Russians, about which Putin's couldn't care less. According to many Russians, some I have presented here, the ongoing demise of Russia's civil economy will bring deep, long lasting damage to Russia and the lives of average Russians. 

 

How bad is it? 

 

Valentina Bondarenko, is the Leading Researcher of the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Economics and Director of the N. D. Kondratieff International Foundation, and well known for her publications. 

 

Guess we won't hear anymore bad news from her...

 

I did a quick fact check she was 82 years old lives in a high rise apartment and apparently according to the only other source I could find had been ill for a long time. Nobody , just nobody has mentioned this event except for this X account. Just like Pattaya falls I suspect Russian high rises have low balconies and as we know old people suffer falls all the time. Of course this is a common way for Putin to get rid of enemies - but as no-one had heard of her and given the circumstances I've just outlined I'm calling disinformation. Since nobody has heard of her why would Russia want her killed in this way even if she was a dissident and there is no evidence for that.  It would be easier for the KGB to poison her medication. That hasn't stopped that post spreading over X repeating the same commentary.

 

Under that post are numerous jokes and bad taste posts with just a few saying sources. The source is TASS btw which I won't post as it will get zapped.

Edited July 24 by beautifulthailand99

[beautifulthailand99]

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Russia's double tap terror tactics at work again

 

Russia launches 'double-tap' attack on rescue workers in Sumy Oblast

Russian forces launched a "double-tap" attack on first responders as they were curbing the aftermath of the previous attack in Sumy Oblast on July 21, the State Emergency Service said.

Overnight, Russian forces launched a large-scale attack with 39 drones and five missiles across Ukraine. At least one missile successfully hit critical infrastructure in Sumy Oblast, and two drones were downed over the region, according to local authorities.

Russian troops also shelled Sumy Oblast 20 times overnight with mortars, and deployed mines and FPV (first-person view) drones, causing 44 explosions, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported. No casualties had been reported at the time of publication.

https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-double-tap-attack-on-rescue-workers-in-sumy-oblast/

 

They are indeed terror tactics and should be condemned unequivically but they are used extensively by the US as well. As for Israel I daren't look.

 

https://scholarship.shu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2116&context=student_scholarship

[Bkk Brian]

32 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

They are indeed terror tactics and should be condemned unequivically but they are used extensively by the US as well. As for Israel I daren't look.

 

https://scholarship.shu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2116&context=student_scholarship

Off topic Whataboutery.

 

I also choose my words carefully. The terror label was there for a reason:

 

Following the atrocities carried out by Vladimir Putin's regime against Ukrainian civilians, MEPs have recognised Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. On Wednesday, Parliament adopted a resolution on the latest developments in Russia's brutal war of aggression against Ukraine.

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20221118IPR55707/european-parliament-declares-russia-to-be-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism

[Seppius]

11 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I don't think ot matters much who wins now if you are out of men , the ammo and kit had dried up as donor nations have run out of stuff in storage or want what's left for themselves.Whilst western private arms industry can't reestablish long mothballed production lines (certainly in the case of artillery) or scale up in any meaningful time scale then we are entering the end game. If Biden's smart he will nudge Zelenkiy to the finishing line before elections in the US so he can claim that victory for the Dems rather than let Trump have it soon after if he wins.

 

"We can produce over one million rounds per day of NATO-qualified, small arms ammunition in 5.56mm and 7.62mm calibres including ball, tracer and blank rounds"

 

"Our dedicated Small Arms Ammunition manufacturing facility at Radway Green has recently undergone an £83m upgrade giving us some of the most advanced ammunition production capabilities in the world"

 

https://www.baesystems.com/en/productfamily/small-arms-ammunition

 

That's just one company, don't worry Ukraine will get all the ammo it needs

[rabas]

3 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Under that post are numerous jokes and bad taste posts with just a few saying sources. 

Let's first compare your research reliability. 

 

Igor Shusko, whom you belittle by saying "some X responses were jokes and bad taste" (your view) is a widely known, highly respected Ukraine/Russia expert fluent in Russian who even NEWSWEEK uses as a trusted source:  Leaked FSB Letters Reveal Civil War Among Putin's Allies

 

 "The emails were shared in full with Newsweek by Igor Sushko, the executive director of the Wind of Change Research Group, a Washington-based non-profit organization. Sushko has been translating the correspondence from Russian to English since they began on March 4."

 

Igor's post that I quoted received 436,000 views, 3,900 reposts, 9,424 likes and was bookmarked by 410 people. His part time X account has 323,000 followers in 1 day. He is widely quoted.  

 

So, I trust Igor's research more than yours.

[rabas]

4 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

I did a quick fact check she was 82 years old lives in a high rise apartment and apparently according to the only other source I could find had been ill for a long time. Nobody , just nobody has mentioned this event except for this X account. Just like Pattaya falls I suspect Russian high rises have low balconies and as we know old people suffer falls all the time. Of course this is a common way for Putin to get rid of enemies - but as no-one had heard of her and given the circumstances I've just outlined I'm calling disinformation. Since nobody has heard of her why would Russia want her killed in this way even if she was a dissident and there is no evidence for that.  It would be easier for the KGB to poison her medication. That hasn't stopped that post spreading over X repeating the same commentary.

 

Under that post are numerous jokes and bad taste posts with just a few saying sources. The source is TASS btw which I won't post as it will get zapped.

 

TASS said it was accident? like every Putin adversary tossed out of a window?  And you believe? On the article's page Pravda writes "Kim Dotcom: Biden may strike nuclear blow on Russia", and you still believe state propaganda? 

 

Do you know anything about the Russian Academy of Science? Its prestige? I have friends that work there, nearly as old. RAS does not require retirement of important people, these are Russia's top scientists. [reference]

Had you researched you would see she is still relatively active publishing frequent articles up to the start of Putin's war. [ResearchGate] [GoogleScholar]. She was still a director of the N. D. Kondratieff International Foundation when she died. [reference] (refs translatable if required)

 

"Since nobody has heard of her why would Russia want her killed..."

 

It was reported throughout Russia, as you now see she was highly placed and widely renowned. The institute she helped run is similar to the Nobel Institute awarding medals in economics. 

 

Why?  You research why Putin kills so many. Respected economists opining about the tragic state of the civil economy would be a good guess.  

 

Edited July 24 by rabas

[beautifulthailand99]

1 hour ago, Seppius said:

 

"We can produce over one million rounds per day of NATO-qualified, small arms ammunition in 5.56mm and 7.62mm calibres including ball, tracer and blank rounds"

 

"Our dedicated Small Arms Ammunition manufacturing facility at Radway Green has recently undergone an £83m upgrade giving us some of the most advanced ammunition production capabilities in the world"

 

https://www.baesystems.com/en/productfamily/small-arms-ammunition

 

That's just one company, don't worry Ukraine will get all the ammo it needs

Firsly that's NATO qualified arms and Ukraine has a vast menagerie of equipment a lot of it soviet era stock.Even the same bore gauge for artillery has been problematic at times with 155mm shells from one manufacturer not working the same as from another.   Additionally as you probably know western armies are rearming which means they are buidling up their own much depleted stockpiles. And you need to add investment,planning issues and health and safety into western efforts something that Russia need not worry about.

 

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-artillery/

 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64294635

 

Sending tanks and artillery guns to Ukraine to bolster the country's war effort will leave the British Army weaker, its chief has said.

Gen Sir Patrick Sanders said that Ukraine would put British donations to "good use" in the fight with Russia, in an internal message sent to troops and seen by the BBC.

But he warned that it would also leave the British Army "temporarily weaker".

[beautifulthailand99]

40 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

TASS said it was accident? like every Putin adversary tossed out of a window?  And you believe? On the same page as the article Pravda writes "Kim Dotcom: Biden may strike nuclear blow on Russia", and you still believe state propaganda? 

 

Do you know anything about the Russian Academy of Science? Its prestige? I have friends that work there, nearly as old. RAS does not require retirement of important people, these are Russia's top scientists. [reference]

Had you researched you would see she is still relatively active publishing frequent articles up to the start of Putin's war. [ResearchGate] [GoogleScholar]. She was still a director of the N. D. Kondratieff International Foundation when she died. [reference] 

 

"Since nobody has heard of her why would Russia want her killed..."

 

What? It was reported throughout Russia, as you now see she was highly placed and widely renowned. The institute she helped run is similar to the Nobel Institute awarding medals in economics. 

 

Why?  You research why Putin kills so many. Respected economists opining about the tragic state of the civil economy would be a good guess.  

 

Look I get it and know Putin kills many of his adversaries even blowing Prizoghin out of the sky. That is beyond doubt. But there is no evidence that I can see that she had produced anything that would trouble Putin or his cronies in recent years. Only Newsweek in the MSM has picked that up so far and given your post I can see why. My substantive point is the case against Russia is strong enough already (surely) without embellishing speculative commentary on what might just be a tragic accident. At the moment I have it in the same file marked Zelenkiy is a coke-head. Good propaganda but most probably nor true. Why does this matter ? Because truth matters - all the shovels nonsense that was a meme a while back was actually toxic to the Ukraine cause becuse it led to complacenacy that Russia was useless and would soon be defeated and if so why give them any more, and secondly and more importantly they were building the Surovikin defence line that effectivley stymied the Ukrainian shhh counteroffensive.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/top-russian-economist-dies-after-falling-out-window-1929398

 

As for the ecomomy collapsing it simply isn't. It may not be that healthy but show me a western one that isn't in trouble as well.

 

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-economy-growth-defense-spending-ukraine-sanctions/32809703.html

Edited July 24 by beautifulthailand99

[0ffshore360]

On 7/21/2024 at 12:12 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

Having piqued my interest I looked up the last page on the Ukraine war in that forum, and it's not exactly bubbling with enthusiasm for a Ukrainian victory. Some of the guys could have been also posting on here for the anti Russian side.

I don't know how it's going to work out for "us", but I'm pretty sure that Putin won't be having a cuppa and a lie down when it's over, and will be creating a war machine that works the next time, while our lot will go back to working out what bit of the military they can axe.

 

Those that forget history are doomed to repeat it and our lot ( if they even took history at school ) obviously never learned anything about Russia. I suppose it's our fault for electing a bunch of numpties.

Sadly I feel the need to agree with much/most  of your above.

Unlike Western Governance that rightfully or not lauds the concept of evolving political Plutocracy in Russia which although also evolving has had Putin closely involved and eventually positioned for a very long time in political time frames.

As you suggest  Putin is unlikely to rest assured after any outcome "negotiated " as an end to the Ukraine conflict.

Nor if the Russian forces prevail in assaults to achieve the acquisition of territory of the "annexed" provinces.

IMHO the original arrogant assumption that the civil strife initiated by Western manipulations in direct defiance of Russian security expectations would prevail by virtue of equally arrogant assumptions of NATO superiority simply as a threat have been dismissed in equivalence by way of defiance in the face of reality.

Putin has answered the bluff of the NATO Article 5 with the Russian policy that a direct attack by any NATO member country constitutes an overall NATO attack which in retaliatory (sacrificial) defense could/would entail deployment of nuclear obliteration.

An almost instant answer to the claims of human over population but........!

 

[beautifulthailand99]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/24/i-know-we-will-win-and-how-ukraines-top-general-on-turning-the-tables-against-russia

 

Interestingly he rebuts any accusations that Russia is again out of tanks, missiles and ammunition and that Russia have used all the USSR stockpile and their losses are completely disastrous as some would have us beleive.

 

Also he lets slip ;

 

Russia’s successes, meanwhile, came at a staggering human cost. The Kremlin’s casualties were “three times” higher than Ukraine’s, and “even more” in certain directions, Syrskyi said. “Their number of killed is much bigger,” he emphasised. In February Volodymyr Zelenskiy said 31,000 Ukrainian service personnel had died since 2022. Could Syrskyi update this figure? He declined, saying losses were “sensitive” and a topic Moscow could exploit.

 

Edited July 24 by beautifulthailand99

[beautifulthailand99]

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-top-diplomat-meets-chinas-wang-yi-talks-guangzhou-2024-07-24/

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

I've said it before but Ukraine should ask China for help in ending the war and helping with reconstruction - suck up some difficult asks and help to cement a lasting peace as Russia wouldn't dare attack a pseudo-China partner.  Call the west's bluff that they are truly a soverign nation and are free to do deals with whoever they want. Ukrainian dissident in exile  Oleksiy Arestovych - former spokeman for Zelenskiy half jokes the same.

 

https://unherd.com/2024/01/oleksiy-arestovych-zelenskyys-challenger/

[Bkk Brian]

Stands to reason. No need to shout about it.

 

 

Our peace efforts have to engage Russia, but not on Putin's terms, EU's top diplomat says

Future peace efforts have to involve Russia, but they cannot be based on terms laid out by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the EU's chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, said on July 22 in Brussels.

Responding to a question about Kyiv's plans for a second peace summit, Borrell said he is certain that President Volodymyr Zelensky's "will to continue advancing on peace talks and to have another conference with Russia's attendance is real."

Although Russia was not invited to the inaugural peace summit in Switzerland in mid-June, Ukrainian officials said they want to invite Moscow's representative for the follow-up conference.

https://kyivindependent.com/borrell-peace-summit/

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Stands to reason. No need to shout about it.

 

 

Our peace efforts have to engage Russia, but not on Putin's terms, EU's top diplomat says

Future peace efforts have to involve Russia, but they cannot be based on terms laid out by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the EU's chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, said on July 22 in Brussels.

Responding to a question about Kyiv's plans for a second peace summit, Borrell said he is certain that President Volodymyr Zelensky's "will to continue advancing on peace talks and to have another conference with Russia's attendance is real."

Although Russia was not invited to the inaugural peace summit in Switzerland in mid-June, Ukrainian officials said they want to invite Moscow's representative for the follow-up conference.

https://kyivindependent.com/borrell-peace-summit/

 

 

As Roger Waters sang "The Tide is Turning " !

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

As Roger Waters sang "The Tide is Turning " !

? nearly all wars end with negotiations, what are you talking about. The important part is not on Russia's terms. Nothing to do with tides. We already know what the terms are for Ukraine from the Swiss summit.

Edited July 24 by Bkk Brian

[Bkk Brian]

Russia still struggling to replace its killed soldiers.

 

Russia is offering Moscow residents a record $22,000 to fight in Ukraine

The financial sweetener comes as President Vladimir Putin struggles to recruit soldiers for his army as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine grinds on in its third year.

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin introduced the one-time signing bonus of 1.9 million rubles (about $22,000) for city residents who join the military, according to a statement on Tuesday.

Anyone taking up the offer would earn as much as 5.2 million rubles ($59,600) in their first year of service, the statement added.

While Russia’s casualty numbers remain shrouded in secrecy, estimates say the death toll among troops is high. More than 70,000 soldiers were likely killed or wounded in May and June alone, the UK defense ministry said in an update on July 12, as the Russian army faced high losses on a new front in the Kharkiv region.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/24/europe/russia-moscow-troops-signing-bonus-intl-hnk/index.html

[beautifulthailand99]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

? nearly all wars end with negotiations, what are you talking about. The important part is not on Russia's terms. Nothing to do with tides

If so what is there to discuss ? 

 

https://rm.coe.int/constitution-of-ukraine/168071f58b

 

Article 2

    The sovereignty of Ukraine extends throughout its entire territory.
    Ukraine is a unitary state.
    The territory of Ukraine within its present border is indivisible and inviolable.

 

[Bkk Brian]

8 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

If so what is there to discuss ? 

 

https://rm.coe.int/constitution-of-ukraine/168071f58b

 

Article 2

    The sovereignty of Ukraine extends throughout its entire territory.
    Ukraine is a unitary state.
    The territory of Ukraine within its present border is indivisible and inviolable.

 

You responded to me, I have nothing to discuss with you and the discussion for Ukraine is within the summit details.

 

Swiss summit backs Ukraine’s ‘territorial integrity’

[beautifulthailand99]

29 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

You responded to me, I have nothing to discuss with you

 

Swiss summit backs Ukraine’s ‘territorial integrity’

My door is always open ....