Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[zmisha]

26 minutes ago, Seppius said:

That is going to go down well for Putin, aunty Vlad is going to feel the heat very soon

This will make many people want changes. After that Putin will say - I want the powers to deal with the enemy! And people will answer - yes, our leader! yes, our savior! This is our bright Z future! I hope so.

[kwonitoy]

 

[kwonitoy]

 

[kwonitoy]

Excellent interview with General Hodges

[beautifulthailand99]

11 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Welcome back. I've been missing your sensible contributions.

 

Indeed, one has to wonder about Zelensky's plan, if he actually has one.

I was beginning to wonder if the stories about the shortage of men was just a trick to fool the Russians, and they have a large force hidden away to exploit the incursion.

Thanks I've been very busy on other things and haven't had time to study the many sources I use. This sober reflective article in the NS caught my eye. Kursk is high on hopium and PR but would probably prove irrelevant in determining the ultimate outcome of the war. There is a grim grind of now a seemingly endless war which suits western interests on the whole but is destroying Ukraine as a viable state in the long term - and Europe's biggest donor Germany is indicating that the bank is closing as they are out of money and politcal will to continue business as usual.

 

https://www.newstatesman.com/international-content/2024/08/the-ukrainian-endgame

 

https://archive.is/1TviU

 

The diplomacy to end the war will take longer, but it, too, will take place quietly and secretly. And it will come as a shock to Ukraine’s supporters in the West, some of whom may still believe that Ukraine can achieve total victory, including the liberation of Crimea – maybe even regime change in Russia itself. The problem for Ukraine has always been that its Western supporters do not have a commonly agreed war goal. But, in recent months, this has been overtaken by a collective sense that support for a long war is flagging.

 

From a military perspective, both sides’ stated goals appear unrealistic. My baseline scenario is that they will agree somewhere in the middle, maybe next year. There is still a lot to play for, but nobody will get everything they want. It will be a deal that will have no winners, yet one that allows both sides to claim victory. It will be a dirty deal, full of compromises, unveiled to the world as a fait accompli – much like a shadowy and unexpected prisoner exchange.

Edited August 21 by beautifulthailand99

[zmisha]

44 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Kursk is high on hopium and PR but would probably prove irrelevant in determining the ultimate outcome of the war. 

So called ukrainians are moving towards Moscow. Who knows where we will find them 1 or 2 year later. Maybe very close to Moscow.

[thaibeachlovers]

3 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

There is a grim grind of now a seemingly endless war which suits western interests on the whole but is destroying Ukraine as a viable state in the long term - and Europe's biggest donor Germany is indicating that the bank is closing as they are out of money and politcal will to continue business as usual.

That is the significant factor. The war continues only with western support, but western countries are broke- even the US has an unsustainable debt. When citizens see their lives deteriorate, and billions of $ spent on weapons for Ukraine, how long can their governments put off the inevitable rebellion? Take Britain; illegal immigration disruptions must be costing the government millions in unexpected costs ( just imprisoning them all is requiring extra costs ), so how can they justify millions/ billions for missiles etc, especially when the UK military needs a massive investment. Where is all the money coming from- seems a lot of Harry Pottering is going on in government offices.

[thaibeachlovers]

4 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

From a military perspective, both sides’ stated goals appear unrealistic. My baseline scenario is that they will agree somewhere in the middle, maybe next year. There is still a lot to play for, but nobody will get everything they want. It will be a deal that will have no winners, yet one that allows both sides to claim victory. It will be a dirty deal, full of compromises, unveiled to the world as a fait accompli – much like a shadowy and unexpected prisoner exchange.

Some have suggested a Korean style separation, which seems realistic to me.

Whatever happens, it's going to be sooooooo interesting seeing government wonks trying to justify how they spent so much on a war that ended in stalemate.

The next elections will be very interesting.

[thaibeachlovers]

3 hours ago, zmisha said:

So called ukrainians are moving towards Moscow. Who knows where we will find them 1 or 2 year later. Maybe very close to Moscow.

Where do you get that they are moving towards Moscow? Must be looking at different sites than myself.

[beautifulthailand99]

That the Russians are ruthless is beyond doubt FAB's and artillery are raining down on their own villages under Ukrainian occupation. Julian Ropcke remains very doubtful as to the efficacy or point to the Kursk occupation. Maximilising the positions post negotations seems the most obvious one.  The Russians burnt down Moscow when Napoleopn approached and did scorched earth uner the Nazis. That's why you never want to fight them less you become barbarians yoursleves.

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

 All in all, I just don’t know what Ukraine’s leadership was thinking here. It very much feels like a last ditch Hail Mary attempt. I think they know they’re losing in the east, with no real hope of changing that trend, and so they gathered whatever they could muster and basically said “<deleted> it, go in there and see how far you can get” in hopes that they might push deep enough into Kursk to warrant a major shift in Russia’s force posture. That didn’t happen of course, and now Ukraine has a lot of men and equipment bogged down in what I’m afraid is a suicide mission.

 

I feel like the Kursk invasion presages the beginning of the end for Ukraine. Things are not going well in the east, Russia is not relenting with its aerial attacks, and I’m just not sure how much longer Ukraine can sustain like this. If (more like when) Pokrovsk and Sloviansk fall, I think we’ll be looking at the serious possibility of a Ukrainian surrender. If they keep fighting they just risk losing more territory.

 

https://archive.is/FkVPm

 

Still, the battle in Russia’s border regions remains in its initial stages, and the present pace of the Kursk incursion is giving Mr. Putin time to calibrate his response. Instead of weakening the Kremlin’s grip on power, the invasion may eventually cause more Russian citizens to rally around the flag, analysts said.
The Kursk invasion “is certainly a blow to the Kremlin’s reputation,” Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian political scientist, wrote on social media on Tuesday. But “it is unlikely to spark a significant rise in social or political discontent among the population, nor will it lead to an elite rebellion.”

[Bkk Brian]

20 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Ukraine firepower in Kursk

 

"Marder IFV is destroying russian firing points and positions during the assault in the Mala Loknia, Kursk Region."

 

 

 

Wouldn't want to be a Russian under the Ukraine fire power in the Kursk region. Especially if your trying to replace blown up bridges and get your supply lines back. 

 

 

 

[zmisha]

11 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Where do you get that they are moving towards Moscow? Must be looking at different sites than myself.

Where do you get that there could be a Russian enemy not wanting to reach Moscow as the main target? Belgorod and Kursk are the best roads to Moscow nowadays. So it was predictable that the enemy will move towards these cities.
And it is predictable that the enemy will try to say that he is not interested to move towards Moscow. War is the art of deception - to deceive the enemy is to win (Sun Tzu).
That is why Putin loves Biden - "he is predictable".

Edited August 22 by zmisha

[GroveHillWanderer]

8 minutes ago, zmisha said:

Where do you get that there could be a Russian enemy not wanting to reach Moscow as the main target? Belgorod and Kursk are the best roads to Moscow nowadays. So it was predictable that the enemy will move towards these cities.
And it is predictable that the enemy will try to say that he is not interested to move towards Moscow. War is the art of deception - to deceive the enemy is to win (Sun Tzu).
That is why Putin loves Biden - "he is predictable".

It seems unlikely that the Ukrainians intend to try and reach Moscow. If they did, why blow up the bridges (and why keep blowing up the pontoons) they would need to use for their forces to advance in that direction?

Edited August 22 by GroveHillWanderer

[zmisha]

25 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

It seems unlikely that the Ukrainians intend to try and reach Moscow.

Which Ukrainians are you talking about? Those who live in Ukraine for years or those who just have received Ukrainian passport and cannot say a single Ukrainian word ?

Edited August 22 by zmisha

[GroveHillWanderer]

2 minutes ago, zmisha said:

Which Ukrainians are you talking about? Those who live in Ukraine for years or those who just have received Ukrainian passport and cannot say a single Ukrainian word ?

I'm talking about the Ukrainian forces in Kursk.

 

Just for the avoidance of doubt, I am fully on Ukraine's side in this conflict, however the Ukrainians have made it pretty clear (IMHO) they are not planning to try to reach Moscow since they have cut off the very bridges they would need to use to get there.

[Mavideol]

How One Russian General’s Screw-Up May Have Led to Ukraine’s Border Invasion

https://au.yahoo.com/news/one-russian-general-screw-may-224709278.html

 

[Social Media]

Troll post and personal attack removed. Please keep to the topic @beautifulthailand99

 

A reported misinformation post also removed

[Mavideol]

Putin Ally Makes Bizarre Boast While Warning Risk Of Global War Is Rising Over Ukraine's Latest Move

https://au.yahoo.com/news/putin-ally-makes-bizarre-boast-111714938.html

 

all his cronies speak the same blablabla language

 

[Mavideol]

Russia-Ukraine war latest: Blow to Putin’s forces as Russian military airbase ablaze after Kyiv drone attack

https://au.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-live-joint-033914158.html

 

[Mavideol]

Invincible of what???? volunteers  as canon food feeders.... Stupidity runs through their veins

 

Vladimir Putin visits Chechnya for the first time in 13 years and praises 'invincible' volunteers for Ukraine war

https://au.yahoo.com/news/vladimir-putin-visits-chechnya-first-221800099.html

 

[Mavideol]

wouldn't turn my back to this double face guy.... fake as fake can be

India's Modi to 'share perspectives' on ending Ukraine war during Kyiv trip

https://au.yahoo.com/news/indias-modi-discuss-resolution-ukraine-035801262.html

[Cameroni]

A video of a beheaded Ukrainian soldier being displayed on a spike appears to show that Russian soldiers will show no mercy to Ukrainians on Russian territory.

 

"The appalling footage has been reported as a war crime to the United Nations by the Kyiv authorities, and was seemingly made at a Russian border point in the Belgorod region.

 

Ukrainian troops made a failed bid to break through the Kolotilovka checkpoint into Russia this week in an apparent effort to expand their invasion"

 

Putin's forces have been claiming the successful defence of Kolotilovka against Ukrainian marines as a victory and have attempted to use it as a warning as they continue to try to repel Ukrainian troops.

 

In a chilling video of the aftermath of the battle earlier this week, a Russian soldier brags on camera about their supposed triumph.

The soldier - thought to be from the 155th Brigade of the Pacific Fleet - says the 'dead men' of his unit 'salute you, Khokhols' - a derogatory word used by Russians for Ukrainians.

 

"'You have made an unforgivable mistake, stepping with your filthy pig hooves on our holy land,' he threatened. 'Today some of you have had your heads blown off by our pressure.'

 

He went on with his sinister threat: 'It will be the same every time we meet. The dead have no pity. The dead men know no fear. The dead are coming for you, Khokhol.'

 

Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine's human rights commissioner, said he had contacted the UN and the Red Cross over the abominable footage filmed at the Kolotilovka checkpoint."

 

Zelensky has personally responded to the video.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13752617/Russian-fighter-severed-head-Ukrainian-soldier-Zelensky-forces-blast-bridge-missiles-Putin.html

Edited August 22 by Cameroni

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

A video of a beheaded Ukrainian soldier being displayed on a spike appears to show that Russian soldiers will show no mercy to Ukrainians on Russian territory.

 

"The appalling footage has been reported as a war crime to the United Nations by the Kyiv authorities, and was seemingly made at a Russian border point in the Belgorod region.

 

Ukrainian troops made a failed bid to break through the Kolotilovka checkpoint into Russia this week in an apparent effort to expand their invasion"

 

Putin's forces have been claiming the successful defence of Kolotilovka against Ukrainian marines as a victory and have attempted to use it as a warning as they continue to try to repel Ukrainian troops.

 

In a chilling video of the aftermath of the battle earlier this week, a Russian soldier brags on camera about their supposed triumph.

The soldier - thought to be from the 155th Brigade of the Pacific Fleet - says the 'dead men' of his unit 'salute you, Khokhols' - a derogatory word used by Russians for Ukrainians.

 

"'You have made an unforgivable mistake, stepping with your filthy pig hooves on our holy land,' he threatened. 'Today some of you have had your heads blown off by our pressure.'

 

He went on with his sinister threat: 'It will be the same every time we meet. The dead have no pity. The dead men know no fear. The dead are coming for you, Khokhol.'

 

Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine's human rights commissioner, said he had contacted the UN and the Red Cross over the abominable footage filmed at the Kolotilovka checkpoint."

 

Zelensky has personally responded to the video.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13752617/Russian-fighter-severed-head-Ukrainian-soldier-Zelensky-forces-blast-bridge-missiles-Putin.html

5 days old article already covered here in posts 5 days ago including this one.

 

 

https://aseannow.com/topic/1327616-latest-developments-and-discussion-of-recent-events-in-the-ukraine-war/?do=findComment&comment=19159777

 

[Cameroni]

 

Russia advancing much easier on the main front, with Ukraine having experienced troops tied down in Kursk.

 

"Civilians with small children in their arms and lugging heavy suitcases fled Monday from Ukraine’s eastern city of Pokrovsk, where the Russian army was bearing down fast despite a lightning Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.

Local authorities said Russian forces were advancing so quickly that families were under orders to leave the city and other nearby towns and villages starting Tuesday. "

 

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-evacuation-order-pokrovsk-b8c4c6cc0dd81658fecdf1c83145908d

[zmisha]

13 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Russia advancing much easier on the main front, with Ukraine having experienced troops tied down in Kursk.

2 years ago Russia was near Kiev. Then it was near Kherson and now the frontline is near Kursk. 
You should know that it does not look like moving forward.
And you also might know that the silver medal in any war is not honorable.
NATO is about 6x bigger than Russia (population, economics, number of soldiers etc.) - this is the fact that you prefer to forget every time.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Roasting Rostov oil depot.

 

[Seppius]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

 

Russia advancing much easier on the main front, with Ukraine having experienced troops tied down in Kursk.

 

"Civilians with small children in their arms and lugging heavy suitcases fled Monday from Ukraine’s eastern city of Pokrovsk, where the Russian army was bearing down fast despite a lightning Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.

Local authorities said Russian forces were advancing so quickly that families were under orders to leave the city and other nearby towns and villages starting Tuesday. "

 

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-evacuation-order-pokrovsk-b8c4c6cc0dd81658fecdf1c83145908d

Ukrainians know what they are doing, probably another huge trap for the dumb Russian generals

[Cameroni]

32 minutes ago, Seppius said:

Ukrainians know what they are doing, probably another huge trap for the dumb Russian generals

 

I am starting to doubt it. Amost all the British and American military analysts I've seen concur that Ukraine pouring experienced troops into Kursk has made it easier for Russia to advance on the main front.

 

I realise Ukraine probably had nothing to lose by trying the Kursk gambit, but if you seriously think Ukraine is winning this war you probably believe Father Christmas lives in Greenland.

Edited August 22 by Cameroni

[zmisha]

29 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

I realise Ukraine probably had nothing to lose by trying the Kursk gambit, but if you seriously think Ukraine is winning this war you probably believe Father Christmas lives in Greenland.

What's a problem for Zelensky to give new Ukrainian passport for everyone from NATO wanting to fight for him? 
It is absolutely legal, so why won't he do this?
You simply want to believe it is impossible. It is very similar to believing that Father Christmas lives in Greenland.
Even more interesting - Russia is already doing something very similar - you can see a lot of yesterday's migrant workers who are solders now.

Edited August 22 by zmisha