Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[Danderman123]

3 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I'm sorry I don't cheerlead for this war to continue and see it as binary good vs evil that started on 24th February 2022. But there we are, I make my own mind up , I am beholden to no-one or no source and read widely and comprehensively. Indeed I watch RT on average once a year since the invasion to see how ludicrous it is as a source of propaganda. If that makes me a Putin shill in the minds of some here so be it. I avoid baiting and name calling as well I should and if there is one lesson I have learned in my life ,so far if you must waste time on internet forums , don't get angry or annoyed - it's just random people you don't know hammering away on keyboards most probably because they have nothing better to do.

 

War is the greatest evil: Russia was baited into this crime — but that's no excuse

 

https://www.salon.com/2022/03/01/is-the-greatest-evil-was-baited-into-this--but-thats-no-excuse/

 

This provocation, which includes establishing a NATO missile base 100 miles from Russia's border, was foolish and highly irresponsible. It never made geopolitical sense. This does not, however, excuse the invasion of Ukraine. Yes, the Russians were baited. But they reacted by pulling the trigger. This is a crime. Their crime. Let us pray for a ceasefire. Let us work for a return to diplomacy and sanity, a moratorium on arms shipments to Ukraine and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the country. Let us hope for an end to war before we stumble into a nuclear holocaust that devours us all.

And there were those who claimed that Hitler was baited into attacking Poland in 1939.

 

All aggressors employ propagandists to cover for them. What's odd is that you do it for free.

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, kwonitoy said:

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/usa-names-the-u-s-states-that-benefit-most-from-military-aid-to-ukraine/

 

 

 

Profiting from making things to kill humans is not a "benefit" for humanity. If the same amount of money used to build the factories and pay the people that work in them was used for actual "benefit" of humanity, we'd all be better off.

Humans are a weird species, rewarding the makers of death and destruction far more than those that want to make society better.

[thaibeachlovers]

18 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Profiting from making things to kill humans is not a "benefit" for humanity. If the same amount of money used to build the factories and pay the people that work in them was used for actual "benefit" of humanity, we'd all be better off.

Humans are a weird species, rewarding the makers of death and destruction far more than those that want to make society better.

If the poster that is confused about my post ( you know who you are ) says what it is about my post that is confusing, I shall do my best to explain the reasons that war is not a good thing for humanity.

[Bkk Brian]

32 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Profiting from making things to kill humans is not a "benefit" for humanity. If the same amount of money used to build the factories and pay the people that work in them was used for actual "benefit" of humanity, we'd all be better off.

Humans are a weird species, rewarding the makers of death and destruction far more than those that want to make society better.

Did you also tell that to Putin? Or did you think the Russian Military complex was a non profit?

[Patong2021]

On 9/6/2024 at 3:39 AM, beautifulthailand99 said:

My point about Nguyễn Văn Thiệu which will rapidly be deleted is many foreign leaders have had years long friendships with the US and big puff pieces in the NYT and the like doubt as to how they are transforming their countries and advancing the cause of freedom in the world and how the US will support them to the end. And then they don't and the circus moves on leaving your country in ruins and yes he took 16 tonnes of gold with him when he took the ride.

“It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.”
― Henry Kissinger

“America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests”
― Henry Kissinger

How wrong you are. 

Wrong because you do not differentiate between a functional and a dysfunctional government.

Wrong because you do not differentiate between a  government with legitimacy and one that is illegitimate.

Wrong because you do not understand that there are significant differences between the two nations and their circumstances.

[Patong2021]

On 9/6/2024 at 7:35 AM, Bkk Brian said:

What's that got to do with stray Russian drones going off target and into Belarus airspace, of course they will shoot them down..jeez

 

You didn't even bother to read the link

 

Yes, this is  a likely explanation. Another is that they may have been misidentified,. Belarus and Russia  air intervention system operators are  scared. They obviously want to protect their nations, but are also worried about being blamed if  a  drone or missile  gets through their screens. Morale cannot be  great.

[Patong2021]

On 9/6/2024 at 3:53 AM, johng said:

China tries to influence with money/investment  "Uncle Sam" tries with sanctions, bullets and bombs.

 

A deluded claim and one that is misleading. China is far more implicated in international conflict than western nations including the USA.   China conceals its weapons sales, while western nations are transparent and are subject to review and conduct/use conditions.

 

The official Chinese policy of non-interference, applied to potential arms buyers, means that China will sell weapons and security equipment to a state without regard to its internal political situation or the repressiveness of the regime.It is the preferred weapons supplier of pariah states. China supplies weapons to Myanmar where they are used by the  brutal despot military  regime against its own people.

China is the principal (sole) supplier of tactical ballistic missiles to Africa. These are  powerful weapons of war and  allow conflicts to be more aggressive and deadly. Western countries have intentionally avoided supplying these missiles. 

 

China prices its arms  to undercut international competitors. Prior to the Ukraine weapons requirements of Russia and Ukraine, China's principal competitor was both Russia and Ukraine, especially Russia. China intentionally sold at the lowest possible price to buy market share. This is the same  strategy China has used with other industrial sectors such as EV vehicles, solar power supplies, textiles, and consumer electronics.

 

China  does not co-operate with the UN arms monitoring efforts and  is late in reporting arms sales to sanctioned regions. Often the information is incomplete or not reliable. 

 

On 9/6/2024 at 7:30 AM, johng said:

Which country has bombed the most other countries for the last 70 years ?

 

A compelling case can be made to identify China as a leading contender.

Unlike western countries, Chinese expansionism has often  been the reason for war. Western militaries have typically acted under international authorization. For example, the Korean War initiated by China and its puppet North Korean secessionists featured heavy Chinese attacks and bombings of South Korea. Western militaries were acting under the authority of the United Nations and were not the US military or  UK or Thai military when they participated. Legally, it was a defensive action authorized by the world against the war waging Chinese. Similarly, when the US was involved in the liberation of  (ungrateful and unappreciative) Kuwait, it was done under the authority of the United Nations.

China has launched wars against Tibet, Myanmar, India and Vietnam.

 

On 9/6/2024 at 4:42 PM, beautifulthailand99 said:

This.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68273449.amp

 

Europe will need 10 years before it is fully ready to defend itself, the boss of Germany's biggest defence firm, Rheinmetall, told the BBC.

Armin Papperger said that ammunition stocks are currently "empty".

 

The comments  should be put in perspective. He is the CEO of an arms manufacturer. It is his role to encourage the support and expansion of his firm. If there was not an issue, the government would not have been supporting the expansion of his firm and the building of a new state of the art munitions plants.  In his comments  where you emphasize  the year timeline you ignore that he also states "We are fine in three, four years - but to be really prepared, we need 10 years,"   The fact is that since the comment   made in February, the EU has already reached an annual  production capacity of 1 million 155mm artillery shells, and  allocated  another €500 million to its ASAP program to expand capacity again.   Yes, Russia has  an estimated 3 million shell production capacity, but it comes at a significant cost to the Russian economy. Russia is mass producing in haste resulting in a high number of duds and defective munitions. Worse is the diversion of  funding away from critical infrastructure and social services. The Russian  capacity  is being paid for with the  future of Russia's youth.

 

Meanwhile, the USA is quickly closing in on an annual production of 1.2 million  155mm shells.  The USA will have increased its production of artillery shells by 500% within two years. The UK will also boost its 155mm shell production 8X once the new BAE  facility is complete in 2025. Sweden has increased its production capacity, and once the Canadian government stops dithering, its manufacturing capabilities will be added.

 

The most important takeaway is that the free world has ramped up in a responsible manner, protecting their economies  and environments and  ensuring sustainable production goals. The manufacturing is spread across multiple nations, while Russian production is still concentrated at a few mega toxic smoke polluting facilities that poison the local areas.  The Free world is planning for the long term while Putin and his cronies are just concerned about  surviving for another year.

[Gweiloman]

8 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

after Putin loses the war.

Is this a calculated assessment or chapter 3 of the hope strategy?

[Mavideol]

Ukraine’s ‘dragon drones’ rain molten metal on Russian positions in latest terrifying battlefield innovation

https://au.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-dragon-drones-rain-molten-040119035.html

 

[Mavideol]

US, British intel officials laud Ukraine for ‘audacious and bold’ Russian incursion

https://au.yahoo.com/news/us-british-intel-officials-laud-203748420.html

 

[Mavideol]

Zelenskyy says Ukrainians have 'no choice to fight' two years after Russian invasion

https://au.yahoo.com/news/zelenskyy-says-ukrainians-no-choice-235015577.html

 

[Mavideol]

friends for life and without limits 555 it appears they do have some limits and it starts to show

Russia’s strategy to rely more China’s yuan is backfiring

https://au.yahoo.com/finance/news/russia-strategy-rely-more-china-211248888.html

 

[Mavideol]

but some time ago Iran and Russia both kept denying it....

US informs allies Iran transferred ballistic missiles to Russia to use in Ukraine war

https://au.yahoo.com/news/us-informs-allies-iran-transferred-034415613.html

 

[Mavideol]

Russia will never follow international law and will never respect agreements, they will do anything and everything to jeopardize international law

Exclusive: US sees increasing risk of Russian ‘sabotage’ of key undersea cables by secretive military unit

https://au.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-us-sees-increasing-risk-120019922.html

 

[Mavideol]

MI6 and CIA warn of 'reckless campaign of sabotage across Europe' being waged by Russia

https://au.yahoo.com/news/mi6-cia-warn-reckless-campaign-050900201.html

 

[Mavideol]

Ukraine-Russia war latest: US warns of ‘dramatic’ escalation by Iran as Moscow ‘receives ballistic missiles’

https://au.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-live-joint-033914158.html

 

[Mavideol]

Opinion - Does the media bear some responsibility for lives lost in Ukraine?

https://au.yahoo.com/news/opinion-does-media-bear-responsibility-160000896.html

 

[beautifulthailand99]

https://archive.is/Jq8cP

 

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has triggered doubts among Russian elite, spy chiefs say

 

Tucked away in this article is an interesting implied aside about prorities. The western view will be we need to get Ukraine "finished" not "as long as it takes".

 

Despite the threat posed by Russia and the risk of conflagration in the Middle East, both Burns and Moore stressed that their biggest challenge was China’s rise.

Burns said the funds that the CIA devoted to China had tripled over the past three years to 20 per cent of the agency’s budget, and that he had travelled twice to China over the past year for talks to “avoid unnecessary misunderstandings”.

Moore described regular contact with his Chinese counterparts as “essential”.

 

[Bkk Brian]

26 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

US, British intel officials laud Ukraine for ‘audacious and bold’ Russian incursion

https://au.yahoo.com/news/us-british-intel-officials-laud-203748420.html

 

Here's a snippet of the CIA Director. "Kursk Offensive is a significant tactical achievement"

 

"Putin's whole narrative is a very cocky and a very smug one."

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

5 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

 

A deluded claim and one that is misleading. China is far more implicated in international conflict than western nations including the USA.   China conceals its weapons sales, while western nations are transparent and are subject to review and conduct/use conditions.

 

The official Chinese policy of non-interference, applied to potential arms buyers, means that China will sell weapons and security equipment to a state without regard to its internal political situation or the repressiveness of the regime.It is the preferred weapons supplier of pariah states. China supplies weapons to Myanmar where they are used by the  brutal despot military  regime against its own people.

China is the principal (sole) supplier of tactical ballistic missiles to Africa. These are  powerful weapons of war and  allow conflicts to be more aggressive and deadly. Western countries have intentionally avoided supplying these missiles. 

 

China prices its arms  to undercut international competitors. Prior to the Ukraine weapons requirements of Russia and Ukraine, China's principal competitor was both Russia and Ukraine, especially Russia. China intentionally sold at the lowest possible price to buy market share. This is the same  strategy China has used with other industrial sectors such as EV vehicles, solar power supplies, textiles, and consumer electronics.

 

China  does not co-operate with the UN arms monitoring efforts and  is late in reporting arms sales to sanctioned regions. Often the information is incomplete or not reliable. 

 

 

A compelling case can be made to identify China as a leading contender.

Unlike western countries, Chinese expansionism has often  been the reason for war. Western militaries have typically acted under international authorization. For example, the Korean War initiated by China and its puppet North Korean secessionists featured heavy Chinese attacks and bombings of South Korea. Western militaries were acting under the authority of the United Nations and were not the US military or  UK or Thai military when they participated. Legally, it was a defensive action authorized by the world against the war waging Chinese. Similarly, when the US was involved in the liberation of  (ungrateful and unappreciative) Kuwait, it was done under the authority of the United Nations.

China has launched wars against Tibet, Myanmar, India and Vietnam.

 

 

The comments  should be put in perspective. He is the CEO of an arms manufacturer. It is his role to encourage the support and expansion of his firm. If there was not an issue, the government would not have been supporting the expansion of his firm and the building of a new state of the art munitions plants.  In his comments  where you emphasize  the year timeline you ignore that he also states "We are fine in three, four years - but to be really prepared, we need 10 years,"   The fact is that since the comment   made in February, the EU has already reached an annual  production capacity of 1 million 155mm artillery shells, and  allocated  another €500 million to its ASAP program to expand capacity again.   Yes, Russia has  an estimated 3 million shell production capacity, but it comes at a significant cost to the Russian economy. Russia is mass producing in haste resulting in a high number of duds and defective munitions. Worse is the diversion of  funding away from critical infrastructure and social services. The Russian  capacity  is being paid for with the  future of Russia's youth.

 

Meanwhile, the USA is quickly closing in on an annual production of 1.2 million  155mm shells.  The USA will have increased its production of artillery shells by 500% within two years. The UK will also boost its 155mm shell production 8X once the new BAE  facility is complete in 2025. Sweden has increased its production capacity, and once the Canadian government stops dithering, its manufacturing capabilities will be added.

 

The most important takeaway is that the free world has ramped up in a responsible manner, protecting their economies  and environments and  ensuring sustainable production goals. The manufacturing is spread across multiple nations, while Russian production is still concentrated at a few mega toxic smoke polluting facilities that poison the local areas.  The Free world is planning for the long term while Putin and his cronies are just concerned about  surviving for another year.

Quite a piece of work - tldr we must get ready to fight China as they are far to successfull at keeping their heads down and making stuff (like the cheap tech we are writing this on ) and because US must always have an existential threat  to keep the militray indistrial complex humming. Pax Americana - oops we just destroyed a country with the best intentions ! Besides which the China wars you mention are skirmishes and border disputes in their backyard whatever the rights and wrongs of them they are utterly dwarfed by US adventurism. I despair for humanity - the world is boiling yet bright minds want more weapons.

 

Oh and the Korean War is historic irelevant when arguing about modern China.

[beautifulthailand99]

46 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

Opinion - Does the media bear some responsibility for lives lost in Ukraine?

https://au.yahoo.com/news/opinion-does-media-bear-responsibility-160000896.html

 

Your link leads to one of those articles that I normally qoute sowing seeds of doubt in the mainstream narrative and he also likes Elon Musk. But thanks for the heads up and it shows I read everything and consider it.

[GroveHillWanderer]

According to Fortune magazine, the Russian economy is coming under serious strain.

 

An economic catastrophe is lurking beneath Russia’s GDP growth as Putin ‘throws everything into the fireplace’

[beautifulthailand99]

14 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

According to Fortune magazine, the Russian economy is coming under serious strain.

 

An economic catastrophe is lurking beneath Russia’s GDP growth as Putin ‘throws everything into the fireplace’

As long as he can keep the Silovik happy - estimated to be around 5 million then his security state will hold. Mynamar and DPRK are utter basket cases yet the leadership maintains their iron grip. The rest of Russia will muddle along with their dirt allotments and baked in mother Russia nationalism and misery.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silovik

[coolcarer]

Excellent work by Ukraine. Russia had no clue it was taking on such heroes and warriors. Let the doubters sit in their ivory towers doubting. Ukraine is here to stay

 

Ukraine Has Invented Its Own Precision Glide Bomb. It Could Become A Key Weapon For Strikes On Targets In Russia.

Every day, Russian warplanes lob as many as a hundred KAB glide bombs at Ukrainian troops and cities. The 25-mile-range bombs, some as heavy as three tons, are among the most devastating weapons in Russia’s 30-month wider war on Ukraine—and a crucial factor in Russia’s advances in eastern Ukraine this year. Now Ukraine is preparing to fight back—with its own glide bombs. A recent video shot by the crew of a Ukrainian air force Sukhoi Su-27 fighter depicts an air force Sukhoi Su-24 bomber carrying a prototype gliding munition under its wing.

Not content to lob American-made JDAM-ER and French-made Hammer glide bombs, the Ukrainians clearly intend to arm their jets with locally made bombs, as well.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/09/07/ukraine-has-invented-its-own-precision-glide-bomb-it-could-become-a-key-weapon-for-strikes-on-targets-in-russia/

https://archive.ph/baPg8

[TedG]

4 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Is this a calculated assessment or chapter 3 of the hope strategy?

Putin can’t win the war in Ukraine.  

[TedG]

2 hours ago, Mavideol said:

Opinion - Does the media bear some responsibility for lives lost in Ukraine?

https://au.yahoo.com/news/opinion-does-media-bear-responsibility-160000896.html

 

 

This article is pushing a dumb narrative. Putin invaded Ukraine because he wanted to topple the government and make Ukraine his vassal state.  The people of Ukraine don’t want to live under the thumb of Putin, which is why they fight.  

[TedG]

2 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Your link leads to one of those articles that I normally qoute sowing seeds of doubt in the mainstream narrative and he also likes Elon Musk. But thanks for the heads up and it shows I read everything and consider it.

 

I consider that article pure BS. 

[beautifulthailand99]

1 hour ago, TedG said:

Putin can’t win the war in Ukraine.  

Nor can he in military terms lose when Ukraine runs out of manpower and weapons before Russia does. We are at a classic deadly stalemate but Russia probably having a narrow edge.

 

https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html

 

In short, both sides believe that their relative power, and thus ability to prevail, will improve over time. The centrality of Western assistance to Ukraine's war effort, and the uncertainty about the future of that assistance, has led Moscow and Kyiv to different conclusions about which of the two will gain the upper hand over time. The conflict is therefore not resolving the information problem in the way that the literature leads us to expect; both sides have grounds for optimism about the possibility of making gains by continuing to fight. Historically this kind of mutual optimism has made wars difficult to end.^[49]

[beautifulthailand99]

For data wonks that want a deep dive into the Russian MIC. Here's a newly released report

 

ESD is a Mittler Report Verlag (MRV) publication, with history dating back to 1789.

Since January 2015 ESD has evolved into a top-quality, global bimonthly print publication. Supplemented fortnightly by ESD Spotlight, the on-line Security and Defence newsletter, distribution tripled in 2015 and both ESD and ESD Spotlight continue to be the fastest-growing publications in the international Defence & Security field. 

 

https://euro-sd.com/2024/09/articles/40149/inside-russias-2024-military-industrial-complex/

 

It is worth noting is that the modern Russian MIC was built on the remnants of the Soviet military industry, which was designed to operate under pressure and produce huge volumes of equipment in a protracted conflict with NATO. While much of this was either unused, neglected or lost in the 1990s and early 2000s, the 2010s saw significant recapitalisation of this dormant potential. While output figures are in key sectors such as new-build tank production are still far below Soviet levels, nonetheless, this still leaves Russia with fairly high output for many key systems compared to many other countries. This relative advantage over Ukraine has most evidently been leveraged through Russia’s adoption of an attritional warfare strategy in Ukraine.

 

[Danderman123]

17 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

For data wonks that want a deep dive into the Russian MIC. Here's a newly released report

 

ESD is a Mittler Report Verlag (MRV) publication, with history dating back to 1789.

Since January 2015 ESD has evolved into a top-quality, global bimonthly print publication. Supplemented fortnightly by ESD Spotlight, the on-line Security and Defence newsletter, distribution tripled in 2015 and both ESD and ESD Spotlight continue to be the fastest-growing publications in the international Defence & Security field. 

 

https://euro-sd.com/2024/09/articles/40149/inside-russias-2024-military-industrial-complex/

 

It is worth noting is that the modern Russian MIC was built on the remnants of the Soviet military industry, which was designed to operate under pressure and produce huge volumes of equipment in a protracted conflict with NATO. While much of this was either unused, neglected or lost in the 1990s and early 2000s, the 2010s saw significant recapitalisation of this dormant potential. While output figures are in key sectors such as new-build tank production are still far below Soviet levels, nonetheless, this still leaves Russia with fairly high output for many key systems compared to many other countries. This relative advantage over Ukraine has most evidently been leveraged through Russia’s adoption of an attritional warfare strategy in Ukraine.

 

The recapitalisation of Russia's military manufacturing was based on integration of Western electronics.

 

Oops.