World Bank Lowers Forecast for Thailand's GDP

[snoop1130]

 

The World Bank has reduced its prediction for Thailand's economic growth in 2024 to 2.4%, down from the earlier estimate of 2.8%. The bank did not consider the possible effects of a new digital wallet scheme in this revision.

 

According to the World Bank, the country should focus on implementing long-term economic strategies to promote growth. Despite the downgrade, Thailand's Deputy Finance Minister, Paopoom Rojanasakul, believes the economy will grow by 3% due to multiple government stimulus actions.

 

The main factors expected to impact Thailand's economic growth in 2024 are consumer spending and tourism. The World Bank predicts that 36.1 million tourists will visit Thailand in 2024 and tourism will return to its levels before the pandemic by mid-2025.

 

For 2025, the World Bank estimates that Thailand's GDP will grow by 2.8% due to increased domestic and global demand, and more government spending. The Bank believes 41.1 million international tourists will visit Thailand that year.

 

 

Senior World Bank economist, Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, remarked that Thailand's economic recovery was slow, given the hindrances of a global economic lull, increasing costs, and inherent problems in the economy. Kiatipong noted, despite some signs of recovery, such as larger export orders in early 2024, the Thai economy's growth has been slow, especially in the tourism and export sectors, which haven't reached their pre-pandemic levels.

 

There are concerns about rising costs, with the balance of payments now positive but still at risk due to sluggish recovery in exports and tourism. The Bank of Thailand is grappling with the challenge of managing growing costs and the economy, complicated further by uncertainties over the digital wallet proposal.

 

Yet, Deputy Finance Minister, Paopoom Rojanasakul, remains hopeful, forecasting a 3% growth for Thailand's economy in 2024. The government plans to introduce more economic stimulus measures, including tax incentives and low-interest loans worth 100 billion baht from the Government Savings Bank. The government is also hastening budget distribution and supporting small businesses with credit guarantee schemes.

 

The minister reassured that the country's public debt, currently at 63% of GDP including debts of government enterprises not guaranteed by the government, is manageable, with the actual public debt levels at a low 57% of GDP.

 

File photo for reference only

 

-- 2024-07-03

 

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[bob smith]

oh dear..

 

missing them tourists now eh!

 

bob.

[hotchilli]

The spin doctors will be out in force tomorrow.

[Purdey]

This is going to upset the government. Cheeky foreigners, doing their maths better that locals.

[DonniePeverley]

You know what this means - beggin more tourists to come.

 

Next stop Afghanistan, Iran and Syrian tourists all welcome

[RichardColeman]

The thai export economy and local one, must be in absolutely dire straits or even negative if this is true. I mean, we are only two years from the end of covid, the Thai economy should be growing 10%+ per annum with the return of tourism from basically zero. 

[Will B Good]

23 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The bank did not consider the possible effects of a new digital wallet scheme in this revision.

So down to 2% with the wallet?

[Celsius]

12 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

The thai export economy and local one, must be in absolutely dire straits or even negative if this is true. I mean, we are only two years from the end of covid, the Thai economy should be growing 10%+ per annum with the return of tourism from basically zero. 

 

It is terrible. The Jap company that supplies auto parts and electronics my wife works for is in the red for the first time ever. 

 

They started as representative company with only 1 Thai staff being employed (wife) and switched to full office when the times were good 

 

Probably going back to representative again....as the Japanese staff in Thailand has proven time and time again that they prefer to enjoy the country instead of working despite the massive influx of competitive Chinese product. 

 

One particular company from Taiwan has destroyed them...what a  hell...I'll mention it - Hiwin.

 

Thais don't realize that once offices and factories are gone this is when the quality of life will go drastically down....along with GDP.

 

 

[Srikcir]

On 7/3/2024 at 4:49 PM, snoop1130 said:

The World Bank has reduced its prediction for Thailand's economic growth in 2024 to 2.4%,

Pretty much in line with BoT projections throughout the year. 

[0ffshore360]

7 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Pretty much in line with BoT projections throughout the year. 

And not so far behind global averages. A factor ignored in real GDP sustainability let alone increases is Trade Balances.

Thailand is being impacted by increasing adoption of global AI production and corresponding  reduction in cost effective labour. That and the resulting reduction in disposable incomes traditionally depended on to drive the ever increasing consumer demands.

In effect it is a variation of the same cause in the elevation of the Chinese economy at the cost  to and inevitable socio-economic damage to the  West/US as multinational Corporates  chased down maximum profitability.

A climb back from that is only of interest to statisticians financial and conflict oriented ! Same old same old.

While it may be of debatable interest to the expat fraternity or those who mysteriously feel compelled to offer comment despite exiting or never even have  been in Thailand the disproportionate imbalance of income that in the event of an economic  collapse by whatever cause the resilient average Thai will make do.

The Thai buffalo maintains a high value why?

 

 

 

 

[Pouatchee]

i guess the bank didnt factor in the tax on foreign remittance

[DonniePeverley]

10 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

The thai export economy and local one, must be in absolutely dire straits or even negative if this is true. I mean, we are only two years from the end of covid, the Thai economy should be growing 10%+ per annum with the return of tourism from basically zero. 

 

 

Susssh because bad news is not good news for tourism ( c ) Thailand

[DonniePeverley]

On 7/3/2024 at 11:03 AM, bob smith said:

oh dear..

 

missing them tourists now eh!

 

bob.

 

 

Bizarre comment, as tourism is through the roof in Thailand at the moment. It may well actually be number 1 this year. Problem is they are attracting very cheap tourists from China and India, which in turn is putting of high spending tourists from 'better' regions.