Thailand’s EV 3.0 policy faces major oversupply challenges

[snoop1130]

 

The Thai Electric Vehicle Association (EVAT) issued a cautionary note to electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers in Thailand, alerting them to the potential for a significant oversupply of EVs in the coming years. This warning arises from the production requirements stipulated under the EV 3.0 policy.

 

This policy, which has been previously lauded for encouraging domestic EV production, offers import tax exemptions and other subsidies to EV manufacturers. However, it also mandates a production ratio of 1:1 for imported to locally produced EVs in 2024, and a 1:1.5 ratio in 2025.

 

EVAT President Krisda Utamote highlighted the implications of this policy today.

 

“It is estimated that by 2025 EV makers will need to produce 180,000 units to offset the imports… with the low purchasing power in the Thai market, automakers will need to seek out secondary markets to distribute their products or risk suffering losses from oversupply.”

 

Krisda estimated that the total demand for EVs in the Thai market is around 600,000 units, while the combined production capacity of the seven EV manufacturers in Thailand is approximately 490,000 units. If these factories operate at full capacity, production will surpass 60% of the total demand, potentially leading to an oversupply.

 

 

To mitigate this risk, Krisda advised the National Electric Vehicle Board to consider measures such as urging financial institutions to relax loan requirements, thereby enabling more consumers to purchase EVs.

 

The Excise Department projects that about 185,029 EVs will be imported under the EV 3.0 policy. This includes 84,195 EVs previously imported in 2022 to 2023, and 66,448 in 2024. An estimated 34,386 units are set to be imported in 2025.

 

The top five companies expected to import the most EVs between 2022 and 2025 are Rever Automotive (77,247 units), Neta Auto (40,837), MG Sales (27,186), Great Wall Motor Manufacturing (24,225), and EV Primus (8,493).

 

To date, the department has disbursed subsidies for the importation of around 40,000 EVs from a total of 75,000 units. It is now preparing to request a budget of 7 billion baht from the Cabinet to subsidise the remaining imports.

 

Manufacturers who fail to meet the required domestic production ratios to offset their imports will face penalties, including the return of subsidies and fines amounting to twice the value of the exempted import taxes, reported The Nation.

 

By Ryan Turner

Image: Xinhua/South China Morning Post

 

Source: The Thaiger 2024-07-11

 

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[dinsdale]

CCP dumping EV's world wide. The EV bubble has gone pop.

2 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

To date, the department has disbursed subsidies for the importation of around 40,000 EVs from a total of 75,000 units. It is now preparing to request a budget of 7 billion baht from the Cabinet to subsidise the remaining imports.

Thai people subsidising the CCP which already heavily subsidises it domestic manufacturers.

[herfiehandbag]

3 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

CCP dumping EV's world wide. The EV bubble has gone pop.

Thai people subsidising the CCP which already heavily subsidises it domestic manufacturers.

Yes, I compared the EV drive with the "condo boom and bust" in China. One of the leading EVangelicals was quick to tell me that I didn't know what I was talking about!

We shall see!

[ikke1959]

Too many old and outdated cars on the roads, which contribute to the airpollution, and Thailand is doing nothing about it... They should start with all taxis in Bangkok and Chiang Mai change in modern EV vehicles, provide enough charging places and get rid of the very old trucks, and cars.. It will improve work facilities, and the economy.. Better give some subsidy to a project like this than a 10k handout

[motdaeng]

54 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

Yes, I compared the EV drive with the "condo boom and bust" in China.

 

ev's are produced and sold worldwide, it's not just china. what specific inside knowledge do you have

eg. about Tesla and other car companies from germany and eu countries producing and selling ev's?

 

it seems like you might not have a comprehensive understanding of ev mobility,

and perhaps you haven't owned or even driven an ev car yourself ... are you an expert?

 

 

Edited July 11 by motdaeng
spelling

[connda]

The CPC are better free market capitalists than Western capitalist who claim to be free market - then they lobby their governments to impose tariffs on Chinese products.

Who benefits from low-priced Chinese products?  I do!  All consumers do.  You people are so damn propagandized by your Western governments and corporations that you demand that they make Chinese imports more expensive so you pay more.  You people are idiots - think about it ffs.

I welcome the low-priced Chinese products.  If I ever buy an EV I expect it will be Chinese.  Funny - all the Western car manufacturers are leaving Thailand.  Thailand raises the minimum wages for Thai workers and Western factories close down and move.  In their place?  Chinese factories which can pay the workers a higher salary and still manufacture products cheaper than Western corporation.  The Chinese are beating the West at their own game and the West and Westerners are sore losers.

  "You're a Chinese Commie Lover."

Yep - you're right.  They make better products and sell them for affordable prices.  The West now has troubles competing so they b*tch and moan and tell their citizens to "Hate China!"  Sorry - I'm not on the "Hate China" bandwagon.  I'm pro-China and pro-BRI, and pro-affordable products.  In fact I'm pro- any country that can make affordable consumer products.  It the West can't compete.  Leave the market.

"Commie lover!  Grrrrr."

Get over it.  So feel free to order more expensive products from Western corporation.  Me personally.  I'm joining the other 7 billion people on the planet who want to buy products manufactured in China and who support Chinese and BRICS-based industry. 

[connda]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

Thai people subsidising the CCP which already heavily subsidises it domestic manufacturers.

Good for them!  Consumers then benefit. 

[dinsdale]

26 minutes ago, connda said:

Yep - you're right.  They make better products and sell them for affordable prices. 

BYD electric cars face serious safety concerns with Blade Battery fires, structural integrity issues like premature rusting, and airbag failures during accidents, alongside poor customer service handling complaints.

https://eightify.app/media/byd-electric-car-reliability-issues-and-customer-complaints#chinas-dominance-in-the-ev-battery-market

[stoutfella]

"total demand for EVs in the Thai market is around 600,000 units,". That are that many idiots in Thailand?

[freedomnow]

7 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

Too many old and outdated cars on the roads, which contribute to the airpollution, and Thailand is doing nothing about it... They should start with all taxis in Bangkok and Chiang Mai change in modern EV vehicles, provide enough charging places and get rid of the very old trucks, and cars.. It will improve work facilities, and the economy.. Better give some subsidy to a project like this than a 10k handout

So instead of a 'tuktuk' they will have to be named 'whiiiiiiiine'.

[hotchilli]

21 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

To mitigate this risk, Krisda advised the National Electric Vehicle Board to consider measures such as urging financial institutions to relax loan requirements, thereby enabling more consumers to purchase EVs

And get into debt.... Yingluk tried a similar plan that backfired for those who borrowed beyond their means.

 

[hotchilli]

17 hours ago, connda said:

The CPC are better free market capitalists than Western capitalist who claim to be free market - then they lobby their governments to impose tariffs on Chinese products.

Who benefits from low-priced Chinese products?  I do!  All consumers do.  You people are so damn propagandized by your Western governments and corporations that you demand that they make Chinese imports more expensive so you pay more.  You people are idiots - think about it ffs.

I welcome the low-priced Chinese products.  If I ever buy an EV I expect it will be Chinese.  Funny - all the Western car manufacturers are leaving Thailand.  Thailand raises the minimum wages for Thai workers and Western factories close down and move.  In their place?  Chinese factories which can pay the workers a higher salary and still manufacture products cheaper than Western corporation.  The Chinese are beating the West at their own game and the West and Westerners are sore losers.

  "You're a Chinese Commie Lover."

Yep - you're right.  They make better products and sell them for affordable prices.  The West now has troubles competing so they b*tch and moan and tell their citizens to "Hate China!"  Sorry - I'm not on the "Hate China" bandwagon.  I'm pro-China and pro-BRI, and pro-affordable products.  In fact I'm pro- any country that can make affordable consumer products.  It the West can't compete.  Leave the market.

"Commie lover!  Grrrrr."

Get over it.  So feel free to order more expensive products from Western corporation.  Me personally.  I'm joining the other 7 billion people on the planet who want to buy products manufactured in China and who support Chinese and BRICS-based industry. 

Well said...

For those who don't like China or their cars import a Tesla.

[john donson]

why not invest money in free EV busses that bring people from their condo to shopping malls or BTS station

[retarius]

It's called comparative advantage and you don't hear about it much these days, but the Chinese have a number of advantages that allow them to produce vehicles cheaper and of higher quality than the <deleted>e you get from Europe or US. Better watch out because some Chinese companies are emulating the Japanese and not the grey haired white men on the board rooms of US/EU companies. 

[JBChiangRai]

You are all reading this wrong.

 

The warning is about too much demand being filled under the subsidy schemes and the Thai government is concerned about whether the manufacturers can make sufficient required vehicles locally required under the subsidy scheme.

 

It’s a very badly written article.

Edited July 12 by JBChiangRai
Spelled

[vinny41]

23 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

You are all reading this wrong.

 

The warning is about too much demand being filled under the subsidy schemes and the Thai government is concerned about whether the manufacturers can make sufficient required vehicles locally required under the subsidy scheme.

 

It’s a very badly written article.

The Article is correct its about potential oversupply

EV brands in Thailand should be aware of the minimum 40% local content requirement for Exports through the ASEAN FTA if their not building with a minimum 40% local content the only place they can sell is Thailand

if they build at  full capacity in the years 2024/2025 this will lead to a bloodbath in pricing as there will be more EV built in Thailand with fewer customers available to buy due to stricter finance rules

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/automobile/40039578

[JBChiangRai]

52 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

The Article is correct its about potential oversupply

EV brands in Thailand should be aware of the minimum 40% local content requirement for Exports through the ASEAN FTA if their not building with a minimum 40% local content the only place they can sell is Thailand

if they build at  full capacity in the years 2024/2025 this will lead to a bloodbath in pricing as there will be more EV built in Thailand with fewer customers available to buy due to stricter finance rules

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/automobile/40039578

 

You're not reading it right.

 

The article is about too many imports that are going to be difficult to match up with the required number of locally manufactured vehicles under the terms of the EV3.0/EV3.5 subsidy.

 

The article is talking about oversupply now leading to breaking the terms of the subsidy later.

 

There is NOT oversupply for demand currently.

[JBChiangRai]

8 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

You're not reading it right.

 

The article is about too many imports that are going to be difficult to match up with the required number of locally manufactured vehicles under the terms of the EV3.0/EV3.5 subsidy.

 

The article is talking about oversupply now leading to breaking the terms of the subsidy later.

 

There is NOT oversupply for demand currently.

 

Or to put it another way.

 

Demand currently matches supply.

[vinny41]

2 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

You're not reading it right.

 

The article is about too many imports that are going to be difficult to match up with the required number of locally manufactured vehicles under the terms of the EV3.0/EV3.5 subsidy.

 

The article is talking about oversupply now leading to breaking the terms of the subsidy later.

 

There is NOT oversupply for demand currently.

Its you that is not reading it correctly the article is talking about 2025 not current demand

In 2025 EV makers in Thailand  will need to produce 180,000 units to offset the imports from EV 3.0 and EV 3.5

Based on current sales figures for 2024 to date EV brand's in Thailand could sell 60-70,000 to the Thai domestic market leaving a shortfall of between 100-110 thousand that need to be exported if they meet the conditions of export

If the EV plants produce their  full capacity at 490,000 then they will need to find export markets for 410-420,000 vehicles

The EU-Thailand FTA agreement is still in discussion phases and wouldn't be completed until 2025 and no-one knows the outcome 

Meanwhile BYD is hedging its bets with Turkiye to import vehicles into the EU

Chinese EV giant BYD, Türkiye agree on nearly $1B investment deal

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/automotive/chinese-ev-giant-byd-turkiye-agree-on-nearly-1b-investment-deal

[JBChiangRai]

Just now, vinny41 said:

Its you that is not reading it correctly the article is talking about 2025 not current demand

In 2025 EV makers in Thailand  will need to produce 180,000 units to offset the imports from EV 3.0 and EV 3.5

Based on current sales figures for 2024 to date EV brand's in Thailand could sell 60-70,000 to the Thai domestic market leaving a shortfall of between 100-110 thousand that need to be exported if they meet the conditions of export

If the EV plants produce their  full capacity at 490,000 then they will need to find export markets for 410-420,000 vehicles

The EU-Thailand FTA agreement is still in discussion phases and wouldn't be completed until 2025 and no-one knows the outcome 

Meanwhile BYD is hedging its bets with Turkiye to import vehicles into the EU

Chinese EV giant BYD, Türkiye agree on nearly $1B investment deal

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/automotive/chinese-ev-giant-byd-turkiye-agree-on-nearly-1b-investment-deal

 

Correct.

 

The other posters are reading it as lack of demand and oversupply currently, that is not the case.  There is not oversupply and weak demand.

[vinny41]

12 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Or to put it another way.

 

Demand currently matches supply.

Clearly that not the case 

If demand matches supply there would be no need to discount from original price by 32%

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=485876037294148&set=a.176402778241477

[JBChiangRai]

1 minute ago, vinny41 said:

Clearly that not the case 

If demand matches supply there would be no need to discount from original price by 32%

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=485876037294148&set=a.176402778241477

No, what you are talking about is a price war for market share.

 

It has nothing to do with oversupply.

[vinny41]

36 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

No, what you are talking about is a price war for market share.

 

It has nothing to do with oversupply.

if you need a price war for market share that would indicate that there is a case of oversupply

more vehicles available than buyers with the funds to purchase

[MartinBangkok]

3 hours ago, retarius said:

It's called comparative advantage and you don't hear about it much these days, but the Chinese have a number of advantages that allow them to produce vehicles cheaper and of higher quality than the <deleted>e you get from Europe or US. Better watch out because some Chinese companies are emulating the Japanese and not the grey haired white men on the board rooms of US/EU companies. 

The "deleted" cars you get from Europe or USA?

 

Are you kidding? My 3 latest vehicles, BMW 320d M Sport, 520d M Sport and Ford Ranger Raptor 3.0, V6, are immaculate cars. Love them to death. Supreme quality, supreme tech, supreme transmissions, supreme engines and power, subpreme suspensions, supreme safety, supreme road handling and ride.

 

You wanna know the range of the BMW diesels? I'll tell you: In excess of 1400 kilometers. And if you want I can tell you how long it takes (in seconds, and in 20.000 places all over the country) to "charge" those BMWs for another 1400 km. Just ask me. :-0

 

EVs can burn in hell.

[MartinBangkok]

15 minutes ago, MartinBangkok said:

The "deleted" cars you get from Europe or USA?

 

Are you kidding? My 3 latest vehicles, BMW 320d M Sport, 520d M Sport and Ford Ranger Raptor 3.0, V6, are immaculate cars. Love them to death. Supreme quality, supreme tech, supreme transmissions, supreme engines and power, subpreme suspensions, supreme safety, supreme road handling and ride.

 

You wanna know the range of the BMW diesels? I'll tell you: In excess of 1400 kilometers no matter temperature outside, and everlasting, not deteriorating (if anything the milage improves!). And if you want I can tell you how long it takes (in seconds, and in 20.000 places all over the country) to "charge" those BMWs and Fords, for another 1400 km. Just ask me. :-0

 

EVs can burn in hell.

And don't even ask me about breaking distances, insurance costs, depreciation, cost of repairs, competence of repair staff (think Somchai, Thailand) and catastrophic fall in new car prices. 

Edited July 12 by MartinBangkok
grammar

[Bandersnatch]

8 minutes ago, MartinBangkok said:

And don't even ask me

 

OK we won't

 

[JBChiangRai]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

if you need a price war for market share that would indicate that there is a case of oversupply

more vehicles available than buyers with the funds to purchase

 

Erroneous conclusion

[JBChiangRai]

32 minutes ago, MartinBangkok said:

The "deleted" cars you get from Europe or USA?

 

Are you kidding? My 3 latest vehicles, BMW 320d M Sport, 520d M Sport and Ford Ranger Raptor 3.0, V6, are immaculate cars. Love them to death. Supreme quality, supreme tech, supreme transmissions, supreme engines and power, subpreme suspensions, supreme safety, supreme road handling and ride.

 

You wanna know the range of the BMW diesels? I'll tell you: In excess of 1400 kilometers. And if you want I can tell you how long it takes (in seconds, and in 20.000 places all over the country) to "charge" those BMWs for another 1400 km. Just ask me. :-0

 

EVs can burn in hell.

 

All a bit slow and noisy, even the Raptor, my BYD smokes it in silence.

 

27 minutes ago, MartinBangkok said:

And don't even ask me about breaking distances, insurance costs, depreciation, cost of repairs, competence of repair staff (think Somchai, Thailand) and catastrophic fall in new car prices. 

 

Go on then, I'll ask you, tell us about the breaking distances? is that like braking distances? tell us about depreciation?

[vinny41]

14 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Erroneous conclusion

Oversupply is a situation where there is more product on the market than consumers want to buy.

In commodities, an oversupply is a period when over production of a commodity pushes the price for that commodity down to a level where the producers are losing money.

Oversupply tends to be corrected through reduced production or discounting, but the time period over which this happens can be longer or shorter depending on the dynamics of the market.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oversupply.asp

[JBChiangRai]

Just now, vinny41 said:

Oversupply is a situation where there is more product on the market than consumers want to buy.

In commodities, an oversupply is a period when over production of a commodity pushes the price for that commodity down to a level where the producers are losing money.

Oversupply tends to be corrected through reduced production or discounting, but the time period over which this happens can be longer or shorter depending on the dynamics of the market.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oversupply.asp

Thanks for the lesson in oversupply.

 

Now try learning about market share and price wars, they have NOTHING to do with oversupply, except perhaps for the losers.

 

The EV price war here was a reaction to BYD entering the market, and then BYD joined in, as did Suzuki and Mercedes Benz.

 

EV’s are still sold here at vast profit compared to their home market.  The cost of importing them here is negligible.