Opinion: Harm to Science of Promoting the Covid Lab Leak Hypothesis

[Social Media]

 

The origins of the Covid-19 pandemic, which began in Wuhan, China in late 2019, are well established. However, how it began remains a heated topic of debate. Two competing hypotheses—one of which is hindering scientific progress and potentially obstructing the development of vaccines and other antiviral agents in the U.S.—are at the forefront of this controversy.

 

The zoonosis hypothesis suggests that SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for Covid-19, was naturally transmitted from an animal to one or more humans at a wet market in Wuhan, which sells fresh produce, meat, fish, and live animals. On the other hand, the lab leak hypothesis proposes that the virus was either modified (possibly through gain-of-function experiments) or even created at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) and somehow escaped the laboratory. While many politicians, pundits, and members of the general public favor the lab leak theory, most scientists, particularly virologists, do not. This schism threatens their legitimate and socially important work, as outlined in a peer-reviewed publication from August 1 in the Journal of Virology, written by 41 virologists, myself included.

 

The zoonosis hypothesis is supported by solid evidence. Viruses often spill over from animals to humans, usually as dead-end events without sustained human-to-human transmission that could spark a pandemic. Wildlife coronaviruses have long been capable of infecting humans. An estimated 66,000 people are infected with SARS coronaviruses each year through human-bat contact, almost all resulting in asymptomatic infections with little or no further transmission. That said, zoonotic transfer of three different coronaviruses (MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV-1, and SARS-CoV-2) from other animals to humans has led to epidemics or pandemics in the past 25 years. The 2002-2003 SARS-CoV-1 outbreak started in a Chinese wet market, and the 1918 influenza pandemic, which originated from an animal-human crossover, most likely from a pig in the U.S. heartland, killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide.

 

The illegal wildlife trade and wet markets constitute a $20 billion global industry with clear zoonosis risks. The closer humans and “exotic” animals mingle, the greater the risk of viral transmission. There is potential for a devastating pandemic if the H5N1 avian influenza virus enters birds, cattle, and sporadically, humans in the U.S.

 

In contrast, the lab leak hypothesis is essentially evidence-free, relying on a chain of unproven and highly speculative events. A recent New York Times guest essay by Alina Chan, a molecular biologist at the Broad Institute of M.I.T. and Harvard, reiterates arguments first made between 2020 and 2022 but presents no new evidence.

 

Both online and scientific literature support the zoonotic transfer hypothesis while countering the notion of a lab leak. Five out of seven reports from the U.S. intelligence community favor the zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV-2, based on declassified scientific evidence and investigations. These five reports found no evidence that the Wuhan Institute of Virology possessed SARS-CoV-2 or a closely related virus before the end of December 2019 and concluded that it is unlikely that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered.

 

Yet, the lab leak hypothesis is now dominating public discourse. It is being promoted by right-wing politicians and media celebrities and even embraced by high-profile newspapers like The New York Times. The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, has accepted the lab leak as an established fact, dismissing the zoonosis hypothesis on dubious grounds. This is significant as their report outlines future government policies on relations with China.

 

Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), testified in June 2024 before the House of Representatives subcommittee investigating the Covid-19 pandemic. He stated that people should keep an open mind on the competing hypotheses, pending definitive proof for one or the other. Despite his balanced stance, Fauci faced vicious abuse, with some even suggesting that he should be “prosecuted” and imprisoned for “crimes against humanity” because NIAID had sent grant funds for coronavirus research to the Wuhan Institute of Virology via an EcoHealth Alliance subcontract.

 

My concern, shared by many other virologists, is that the evidence-light lab leak hypothesis is damaging the virology research community at a time when its role is crucial in the face of pandemic threats. The attacks on Fauci are not unique. Coronavirus virologists have been falsely accused of engineering SARS-CoV-2, allowing it to escape from a lab due to inadequate safety protocols, participating in an international cover-up, and taking grants as bribes from NIAID for favoring the zoonosis hypothesis. There is mounting harassment, intimidation, threats, and violence towards scientists, particularly vile in the online space.

 

In a survey conducted by Science magazine, 38% of 510 researchers publishing coronavirus research reported receiving insults, threats of violence, doxing (publicly revealing personal information), and even face-to-face threats. Another survey of 1,281 scientists found that 51% had experienced at least one form of harassment, sometimes repeatedly for years.

 

As a result, scientists have withdrawn from social media platforms, rejected public speaking opportunities, and taken steps to protect themselves and their families. Some have even diverted their work to less controversial topics. There are now long-term risks that fewer experts will help combat future pandemics and that scientists will be less willing to communicate the findings of sophisticated, fast-moving research on global health topics. Pandemic preparation research has already been deferred, diverted, or abandoned. Most worrisome is that the next generation of scientists has well-founded fears about becoming researchers on emerging viruses and pandemic science.

 

All virologists embrace the need for laboratory safety. None ignore the implications of the lab leak hypothesis—that a dangerous virus could escape from a research laboratory in the future. However, lab leak anxiety underpins proposals for policies that would unnecessarily restrict research on vaccines and antiviral agents in the U.S. The overarching concern is that the lab leak narrative fuels mistrust in science and public health infrastructures. The increasingly virulent and widespread anti-science agenda damages individual scientists and their institutions and hinders planning to counter future epidemics and pandemics.

 

Science is humanity’s best insurance policy against threats from nature, but it is a fragile enterprise that must be nourished and protected. Scientific organizations need to develop programs to counter anti-science and protect the research enterprise in the face of mounting hostility.

 

The rhetoric being thrown at virologists must be toned down. Viruses are the real threats to humanity, not virologists. John P. Moore, Ph.D., is a professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York City. This essay is adapted from a longer article written with 40 colleagues that was published in the Journal of Virology.

 

Credit: Stat News  2024-08-05

 

 

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[MicroB]

I'm a microbiologist of over 35 years standing (yikes, has it been that long). During that time, I worked developing ways to detect the worst pathogens known to man, and unknown to man. I was also a biological safety officer for a major Plc (in addition to being a senior researcher). These days I preach microbiology from an office.

 

We started talking about this virus in early January 2020, and, as you do, speculate about its origins.

 

98% of the microbial world is completely unknown, The potential for new diseases is infinite. The world only starts picking up on them well into the infection's development. Many burn out, without making a single headline.

 

Take MERS; this was another coronavirus, related to SARS, and related to Sars-Cov-2. It made the headlines around the world when some elderly Saudi was evacuated to London with a respiratory illness, and an Anglo-Dutch team identified the virus. MERS has an incredibly high  mortality rate. But at least 6 months before this virus was identified, I was writing articles on the Amman cluster, where some doctors and ER nurse died following a short respiratory illness. It seemed significant to me at the time, and later on was confirmed to be MERS.

 

MERs had the potential to cause a frightening pandemic, and for a few years, we were anxiously keeping an eye on the annual haj, and the potential for new cases. But they never happened. Its not gone away, there are still cases. His high mortality rate probably limits forward transmission,

 

But MERS appeared following a change in human behaviour. All emerging infectious diseases follow the same  path. Flu, an avian virus, impacted humans farming pigs 2000+ years ago. It was about the time when someone invented the pig sty, rather than taking the pigs out to forage. MERS emerged because of the wealth of the Gulf. It became commonly associated with elderly Arab men who kept a few camels. Saudi Arabia imports camels, due to rising demand for camel meat, camels for racing and for old men wishing to keep a few camels around after retiring from a prosperous job. The camels mostly come from the Canaries, Australia (the feral Afghan camels) and Sudan. The MERS virus was only found in Sudanese camels. The change in human behaviour was Saudi Arabia now being full of wealthy old men pining for something resembling the Bedu lifestyle in old age (ie the good old days). and all buying camels.

 

The story of COVID-19, and its origins, will occupy entire lifetimes. We still do not know exactly where Spanish Flu came from, thought there is strong circumstantial evidence that it emerged in China in 1917 (newly discovered old Chinese medical records), about the time the British and French were recruiting coolies to serve on the Western Front, and these coolie battalions were then shipped via Canada and Kansas. What really caused this virus to take off, besides the unusual act of mostly young Chinese men being shipped off to France, was the end of WW1. There was a priority to evacuate men in the hospitals home. Other soldiers remained at their posts, allowing a virus to circulate among relatively fit men living in close proximity, leading to recombination events, and selection of a strain with heightened virulance. After 120+ years, we are getting closer.

 

As for COVID-19, my working theory why this EID becames a pandemic so quickly was, again, due to a change in human behaviour, this time "Globalisation". Wuhan, by 2020, had become part of a global supply chain for the textiles and car parts industries, leading to particular traffic between Wuhan and Italy. The city's residents had become much more properous, and were enjoying a lifestyle far better than during their parents in the 1960s, when there was genuine hunger. Part of this means indulging in exotic meats. This prosperity attracted the attention of Western banks, who has invested heavily into the surrounding farming sector, pushing traditional farmers out onto lands not farmed before, increasing the chances of first contact with novel disease causing organisms.

 

The increased farming activity has also driven up demand for fertiliser. The area is well known for bat guano deposits, that itinerant miners excavate. Let it be remembered that coronaviruses circulate among the bat community Bats has really slow immune systems, and these viruses don't really bother them.

 

There are a number of scenarios for transmission. Wuhan is a prosperous city, with more more coming from the rural area. One reason is to bring in livestock for the wet market. There is more prospect of human to human contact, and livestock to human contact. Then you have all the international visitors.

 

One cannot disregard the laboratory, but as a microbiologist with experience of the kinds of facilties involved, I find it incredibly unlikely. Some assume if it came from the lab, it must be some sort of engineered strain. well, maybe, probably not. The Wuhan Institute of Virology has a number of functions. One of which is to conduct research on novel pathogens. Around the world, in the major metropolises, you will find research institutes looking at some of the nastiest pathogens know. For instance, Colindale in London, is one of Health England's main reference labs, the other being the civvie lab at Porton Down. Where my lab was, was in one of the Home Counties close to London, and it was a private lab.

 

The other function of the Wuhan lab was as a reference lab, meaning they received clinical samples coming from hospital labs for further investigation. Every city will have at least one hospital, and typically, that hospital will have a pathology laboratory, which will include a virology section. In those labs, the scientists are deliberately propagating viruses to identify them. That means producing millions up millions of viruses. And mostly this will be in fairly open bench BSL2 and BSL3 labs; the scientists aren't usually wearing  breathing apparatus. Hazardous work can be conducted in open front laminar flow cabinets venting to atmosphere via a HEPA filter.

 

So a lab origin might be from a BSL 4 research lab, a lab that was newly built by a French firm, and which was apparently in good corder, with a combination of physical and non-physical (ie training) controls in place. Another origin would be from the reference lab, which would be at a lower standard, but there are still controls in place. If reference labs didn't have controls for BSL-2 labs, then why aren't they the source of STDs in your city?

 

But lab leaks do occur, when someone circumvents a control. The last smallpox death in the UK was in 1978, a forensic photographer in Birmingham. The photographer's office was below a lab looking at Smallpox. For many years it was thought poorly maintained ducting was to blame. But this has been ruled out.

 

As a result of death, the head of the Birmingham Medical School microbiology department took his own life. He had been harassed by the Press and others, who accused him of genetically manipulating the Smallpox virus, utter nonsense.

 

Where it emerged from; its still most likely a zoonitic infection. 60% of all human infections have crossed the species barrier

[Patong2021]

Thank you for that  well written item. It is a nice change from the usual nonsensical claims that come from the mentally ill collective who offer imagined convoluted plots.  I too believe that the origin of the illness is due to the consumption of wild animals. It's nothing new as we have seen this play out before with Ebola and the African consumption of  "Bush Meat".   

The Wuhan  animal market aka wet market has been documented as a gruesome horrific place.  Live animals are kept in small cages, terrified. They are often tormented and tortured as the Chinese believe that the resulting adrenaline will give the consumers of the animal flesh, vitality and vigor. The animals are not fed and are often dehydrated which makes them at greater risk of infection as their immune systems become impaired.  China has gone to great lengths to over up the horrors of these wet markets. The  animal vendors at Bangkpok's Chatuchak market offer a similar risk and Thai authorities have refused to stop the inhumane activities. the threat has been repeatedly documented, but the powers that be and the  community at large has ignored the warnings.

 

Today we are on the edge of another international health crisis with a resurgence of MPox  aka Monkey Pox. Initially centered in the Congo, because vaccines were not made available and quarantines not  effected, the disease has spread and risks exploding. European infections have been increasing in the past 2 weeks and it is only a matter of time before it spreads in  the Americas. Fortunately, vaccines exist to contain the spread, but the issue will be if people at risk will take the vaccine or fall prey to the ignorance of the anti science  group who are opposed to vaccines and preventative measures. Will governments act or will be they be afraid of a repeat of the  covid conspiracy nutters?