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Sir Ian McKellen Questions Prince Harry's Aptitude and Criticizes the Late Queen
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Trump Will Blink First to Stop Financial Markets and Treasuries From Hemorrhaging Further
There are so many opinions floating around right now about Trump's self inflicted trade war, mostly about Trump’s intentions, what he understands and what he doesn’t, what he’s trying to achieve, how much of it is ego, and so on. But at the end of the day, the only thing that really matters is: when and how does this end? I think the simple answer is that it ends very soon, probably next week, because both the US financial markets and the US government’s sovereign debt markets (Treasuries) are now hemorrhaging and are in free fall, and that’s just not sustainable for more than a minute. If it’s allowed to fester for too long, it could become genuinely dangerous. As for how it ends, I suspect Trump blinks first. The Chinese are in a stronger position financially and economically. They aren't facing the same financial markets carnage and can wait this out far longer than Trump or the US can, plus the Chinese are used to economic pain, whereas the US isn't. So what I think happens is Trump, pretending to be the great dealmaker, offers China an olive branch next week by announcing a 60 or 90-day pause on the tariffs, giving both sides time to negotiate a deal. Most likely, it’ll just be him kicking the can down the road with no real agreement ever to follow. But in the meantime, the markets will rally, treasury yields will settle, and he’ll be seen as being sensible, at least in the moment. As for the tariffs themselves, it buys him time to spin the narrative, confuse the American public to the point where no one really understands what’s going on anymore, eventually Americans move into the next big news cycle topic and the whole situation fades away, more or less back to where things were before he started this trade war that he can’t possibly win. Just political theatre and market pain for nothing, but no real progress is ever made on the large trade deficit between the US and China. And the biggest losers in all this? All the investors who panicked and sold out and liquidated their financial positions, thinking the American economy was about to collapse. One other possibility is: Trump has repeatedly expressed his strong desire for the Fed to cut interest rates now, ideally by at least another full percentage point. So far, the Fed has largely ignored those signals, and there’s not much Trump can do about it legally, unless he’s willing to cross more legal lines. But if the stock market continues to tank and the sell-off in treasuries intensifies as a result of Trump’s trade war, it could eventually corner the Fed into action. If things spiral far enough, the Fed might feel compelled to step in and cut rates, effectively reviving what’s known as "The Fed Put", like what happened during the COVID crash, when emergency rate cuts turned the markets around almost overnight. That could be part of Trump’s hidden play. If he drags this out long enough and triggers a rate cut, he could then swoop in, end the trade war, and claim victory, restoring confidence just as rates fall. It’s speculative, but not outside the realm of possibility. If he pushes things far enough, it just might work for his agenda on cutting interest rates and perhaps he's just using the trade war with China as a red herring to do it. -
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Consumer sentiment tanks
isn't musk set on having a few dozen spawns...great role model for population control. -
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Transgender Women's Altercation on Pattaya Beach Goes Viral Online - video
You would intervene??? Not a smart thing to do, if any farang tried to intervene in a fight between Thais, then the farang would get stomped senseless. Best thing is stand well back and watch and enjoy. -
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Poll -- Who will cave first in the momentous China-USA trade war?
Income tax is tax on income, not tax on wealth. Guy with billions and no income pay no income tax. Guy with gazillions and $1 billion profit can write off $1 billion losses for net zero income and pay no income tax. Trump's losses on his bankrupt casinos can be carried over to following years to write off future income, if he makes money selling gristly steaks or elon plushies. -
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Thailand Requires Digital Arrival Card Submission 3 Days Before Entry starting May 1
Your visa expires after 1 year, then its 1 year extensions of stay. I haven't had a visa since 2004. -
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When is the 60 day visa-free entry changing?
one of the great things about the 60 day was more than 60 day - it was the unlimited re-entries - which meant you could stay in thee region and visit multiple countries without worrying about multiple re-entry visas. Basically it gave/gives great freedom of movement. Whereas few people may stay for the whole continuous 60 days, it's nice to be able to stay 31 or 40 without worrying.
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