Democrats Fear Polls May Undercount Donald Trump's Support Ahead of 2024 Election

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Democrats are increasingly concerned that Donald Trump’s support may be undercounted by pollsters, suggesting his chances of victory in the upcoming presidential election could be higher than indicated by headline polling numbers. While most national polls show Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, maintaining a consistent but moderate lead, her supporters are growing anxious over the narrow margins in crucial battleground states, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

 

These northern states are considered essential to Harris's path to the White House. Although some polls show Harris with leads of four to six points in Pennsylvania, often seen as the most pivotal swing state, others show Trump trailing by smaller deficits. In Michigan and Wisconsin, the gaps are even narrower, with Harris’s lead hovering at just 1 or 2% in various polls. This is a worrying reminder for Democrats, given Trump's surprising overperformance in these states during the 2016 election, when he narrowly won them on his way to defeating Hillary Clinton. Even in 2020, when Joe Biden ultimately prevailed, Trump performed far better than many predicted.

 

The latest New York Times/Siena poll has compounded these fears, revealing Trump’s resurgence in key southern battlegrounds. The survey shows Trump leading by five points—50% to 45%—in Arizona, a state Biden won by a slim margin in 2020, and by four points—49% to 45%—in Georgia, another state Biden narrowly carried. In North Carolina, where Trump has had to contend with controversies surrounding GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, Trump still holds a slight advantage, leading 49% to 47%.

 

Projections suggest that if Trump outperforms the polls in 2024 by the same margins as he did in 2020, he could win all seven of the major battleground states, including Nevada. A separate analysis by Focaldata, using demographic models to assess voter turnout likelihood, suggests that Harris’s lead across swing states may be overestimated by as much as 2.4%. Focaldata’s Patrick Flynn warned that in a race potentially decided by 60,000 voters, this discrepancy could be decisive. "Pollsters who simply rely on self-reporting [in defining likely voters] may be subject to another polling miss in Trump’s favor," Flynn wrote.

 

Despite these challenges, Harris has some encouraging news: if the polls are as inaccurate as they were in the 2022 midterm elections, she could still win every swing state except Georgia. However, this has done little to calm the nerves of many Democrats, especially given that both Clinton and Biden were polling better against Trump in their respective campaigns than Harris is now. "That’s ominous. There’s no question that is concerning, but you’re working as hard as you can work, no matter what," an unnamed Democratic senator told *The Hill*.

 

Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania echoed these concerns, acknowledging that polling has been unreliable since 2016. “Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016… Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth,” Fetterman said. Even though recent polling has shown favorable results for Harris in the state, the tight margins and history of polling errors have left Democrats on edge.

 

Adding to these concerns, the New York Times/Siena poll indicated that Harris’s post-debate “bounce” following her recent debate against Trump was the smallest for any presidential candidate in the 21st century. According to the *New York Times* polling analyst Nate Cohn, Harris has improved by only one point across 34 polls conducted before and after the debate. Cohn noted that previous candidates, including George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and even Trump earlier this year, experienced at least a two-point bump after their debates.

 

With just weeks remaining before the election, the race appears as close as ever, and Democrats remain on high alert, worried that the polls may once again be underestimating Trump’s ability to galvanize his base and outperform expectations.

 

Based on a report from: The Guardian 2024-09-25

 

 

 

[mdr224]

The thing democrats and elites funding them fear most is that american media is losing influence among the people. Like a parasite thats lost its host

[HappyExpat57]

Swifties and similar young people are registering in all time record numbers. They are in all likelihood voting blue. They are notoriously difficult to poll cuz they don't have land lines and don't answer unknown callers. Those are the unreported numbers that have red think tank folks losing sleep over.

[gargamon]

28 minutes ago, HappyExpat57 said:

Swifties and similar young people are registering in all time record numbers. They are in all likelihood voting blue. They are notoriously difficult to poll cuz they don't have land lines and don't answer unknown callers. Those are the unreported numbers that have red think tank folks losing sleep over.

Ssshhhh. You're going to let the cat out of the bag