Democrats Fear Polls May Undercount Donald Trump's Support Ahead of 2024 Election

[Social Media]

 

Democrats are increasingly concerned that Donald Trump’s support may be undercounted by pollsters, suggesting his chances of victory in the upcoming presidential election could be higher than indicated by headline polling numbers. While most national polls show Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, maintaining a consistent but moderate lead, her supporters are growing anxious over the narrow margins in crucial battleground states, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

 

These northern states are considered essential to Harris's path to the White House. Although some polls show Harris with leads of four to six points in Pennsylvania, often seen as the most pivotal swing state, others show Trump trailing by smaller deficits. In Michigan and Wisconsin, the gaps are even narrower, with Harris’s lead hovering at just 1 or 2% in various polls. This is a worrying reminder for Democrats, given Trump's surprising overperformance in these states during the 2016 election, when he narrowly won them on his way to defeating Hillary Clinton. Even in 2020, when Joe Biden ultimately prevailed, Trump performed far better than many predicted.

 

The latest New York Times/Siena poll has compounded these fears, revealing Trump’s resurgence in key southern battlegrounds. The survey shows Trump leading by five points—50% to 45%—in Arizona, a state Biden won by a slim margin in 2020, and by four points—49% to 45%—in Georgia, another state Biden narrowly carried. In North Carolina, where Trump has had to contend with controversies surrounding GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, Trump still holds a slight advantage, leading 49% to 47%.

 

Projections suggest that if Trump outperforms the polls in 2024 by the same margins as he did in 2020, he could win all seven of the major battleground states, including Nevada. A separate analysis by Focaldata, using demographic models to assess voter turnout likelihood, suggests that Harris’s lead across swing states may be overestimated by as much as 2.4%. Focaldata’s Patrick Flynn warned that in a race potentially decided by 60,000 voters, this discrepancy could be decisive. "Pollsters who simply rely on self-reporting [in defining likely voters] may be subject to another polling miss in Trump’s favor," Flynn wrote.

 

Despite these challenges, Harris has some encouraging news: if the polls are as inaccurate as they were in the 2022 midterm elections, she could still win every swing state except Georgia. However, this has done little to calm the nerves of many Democrats, especially given that both Clinton and Biden were polling better against Trump in their respective campaigns than Harris is now. "That’s ominous. There’s no question that is concerning, but you’re working as hard as you can work, no matter what," an unnamed Democratic senator told *The Hill*.

 

Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania echoed these concerns, acknowledging that polling has been unreliable since 2016. “Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016… Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth,” Fetterman said. Even though recent polling has shown favorable results for Harris in the state, the tight margins and history of polling errors have left Democrats on edge.

 

Adding to these concerns, the New York Times/Siena poll indicated that Harris’s post-debate “bounce” following her recent debate against Trump was the smallest for any presidential candidate in the 21st century. According to the *New York Times* polling analyst Nate Cohn, Harris has improved by only one point across 34 polls conducted before and after the debate. Cohn noted that previous candidates, including George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and even Trump earlier this year, experienced at least a two-point bump after their debates.

 

With just weeks remaining before the election, the race appears as close as ever, and Democrats remain on high alert, worried that the polls may once again be underestimating Trump’s ability to galvanize his base and outperform expectations.

 

Based on a report from: The Guardian 2024-09-25

 

 

 

[mdr224]

The thing democrats and elites funding them fear most is that american media is losing influence among the people. Like a parasite thats lost its host

[HappyExpat57]

Swifties and similar young people are registering in all time record numbers. They are in all likelihood voting blue. They are notoriously difficult to poll cuz they don't have land lines and don't answer unknown callers. Those are the unreported numbers that have red think tank folks losing sleep over.

[gargamon]

28 minutes ago, HappyExpat57 said:

Swifties and similar young people are registering in all time record numbers. They are in all likelihood voting blue. They are notoriously difficult to poll cuz they don't have land lines and don't answer unknown callers. Those are the unreported numbers that have red think tank folks losing sleep over.

Ssshhhh. You're going to let the cat out of the bag

[Tug]

We best keep our guard up until trump is defeated and imprisoned he’s still a threat,I do feel the tide is turning against him but let’s not be complacent he can still win.my biggest fear on this issue is misogyny rearing its ugly head!

[HappyExpat57]

9 minutes ago, Tug said:

We best keep our guard up until trump is defeated and imprisoned he’s still a threat, I do feel the tide is turning against him but let’s not be complacent he can still win.my biggest fear on this issue is misogyny rearing its ugly head!

I honestly think the media is reporting such a tight race for two reasons:

 

1. Keeps people's attention.

2. If it were reported Harris was far ahead, many would think, "Then I don't need to vote, she's already got it."

[JonnyF]

Smells like the Hilary election to me.

 

Over confidence from the Dems simply because Harris has managed to remain silent. 

[Yagoda]

4 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

Bring a raincoat. Those Liberal tears are going to be bouncing off your screen. 😭

 

😀

NY is in play. Can you imagine if the Dems lose NY? Total Meltdown.

 

[Chomper Higgot]

It is very clear what the Harris Campaign is doing, combatting complacency, they want every Democrat vote cast, no voters failing to vote because they believe the race is won.

 

Races aren’t won by sprinting for the line, the win goes to crossing the line.

 

 

[frank83628]

3 hours ago, HappyExpat57 said:

Swifties and similar young people are registering in all time record numbers. They are in all likelihood voting blue. They are notoriously difficult to poll cuz they don't have land lines and don't answer unknown callers. Those are the unreported numbers that have red think tank folks losing sleep over.

are they using ID?

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

NY is in play. Can you imagine if the Dems lose NY? Total Meltdown.

 

In your fetid dreams it might be:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

[placeholder]

7 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

NY is in play. Can you imagine if the Dems lose NY? Total Meltdown.

 

On what planet? Not this one.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-york/

[Yagoda]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

On what planet? Not this one.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-york/

Polls that show Harris in the Lead, Even When conducted by Vinny's Pizza and Polling: Truth

Polls that show Trump in the Lead: False

 

Why do you HarrisBots even bother.

[mdr224]

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

On what planet? Not this one.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-york/

Just have to get jews to realize that dems want to bring muslims here and trump has new york won easy

[Yagoda]

2 minutes ago, mdr224 said:

Just have to get jews to realize that dems want to bring muslims here and trump has new york won easy

She has to worry about the Jewish vote in Pa too. Now that the Dems have demonstrated their support for genocide, Jews are finally voting in their self interest.

[ElwoodP]

Removed several reported posts.

A little self control would be appreciated.

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Polls that show Harris in the Lead, Even When conducted by Vinny's Pizza and Polling: Truth

Polls that show Trump in the Lead: False

 

Why do you HarrisBots even bother.

Please share with us polls that show Trump in the lead or even close in New York.

[Tug]

7 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Polls that show Harris in the Lead, Even When conducted by Vinny's Pizza and Polling: Truth

Polls that show Trump in the Lead: False

 

Why do you HarrisBots even bother.

Whistle whistle come here little doggie…….yea a dog whistle 😗 

[placeholder]

7 minutes ago, mdr224 said:

Just have to get jews to realize that dems want to bring muslims here and trump has new york won easy

Because American Jews, among the most highly educated citizens in the United States, are unaware? I've got news for you: the Kool-Aid you're offering isn't kosher.

[Yagoda]

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Please share with us holes that show Trump in the lead or even close in New York.

I didnt say NY did I?

[Yagoda]

2 minutes ago, Tug said:

Whistle whistle come here little doggie…….yea a dog whistle 😗 

Too much for the Bot to process?

[Yagoda]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Because American Jews, among the most highly educated citizens in the United States, are unaware? I've got news for you: the Kool-Aid you're offering isn't kosher.

I bet you have "best friends" that are Jewish

[mdr224]

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Because American Jews, among the most highly educated citizens in the United States, are unaware? I've got news for you: the Kool-Aid you're offering isn't kosher.

If what trump said is true about only having 40% of the jewish vote now, then yes jewish americans dont understand yet whats in their best interest. Still plenty of time to make them aware

[Chomper Higgot]

4 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

I didnt say NY did I?

Eh?

 

25 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

NY is in play. Can you imagine if the Dems lose NY? Total Meltdown.

 

 

[Yagoda]

Just now, Chomper Higgot said:

Eh?

 

 

And your point is? Too much for the Bot to process?. Off script?

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

I didnt say NY did I?

You wrote, "New York is in play." Were you referring to the Yankees?

[Chomper Higgot]

2 minutes ago, mdr224 said:

If what trump said is true about only having 40% of the jewish vote now, then yes jewish americans dont understand yet whats in their best interest. Still plenty of time to make them aware

It’s not true.

 

He said he gets 29% of the Jewish vote.

 

Clearly American Jews don’t need you telling them what is good for them.

[Yagoda]

3 hours ago, Tug said:

We best keep our guard up until trump is defeated and imprisoned he’s still a threat,I do feel the tide is turning against him but let’s not be complacent he can still win.my biggest fear on this issue is misogyny rearing its ugly head!

If you think Trump is a threat, wait till you see how 75 million decent hardworking Americans react if you catch a legal miracle and get him locked up.

 

But I know, the word prison is in the script you have

[mdr224]

2 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

It’s not true.

 

He said he gets 29% of the Jewish vote.

 

Clearly American Jews don’t need you telling them what is good for them.

He got 29% in 2020, polling at 40% now. Jews are waking up to the trainwreck of the democrat party, but mostly still blindly loyal to their party.

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

And your point is? Too much for the Bot to process?. Off script?

Clearly you are having difficulty remembering you introduced NY into the discussion when moments later you post:

 

10 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

I didnt say NY did I?