Early voting - battleground states

[Danderman123]

2 minutes ago, earlinclaifornia said:

 According to a Fox News poll of Pennsylvania, Trump is running 5 percentage points behind Harris among voters ages 65 and over, slipping back from the previous month, when he and Harris were tied with that demographic. It’s a major shift from 2020, when Trump carried 53 percent of the senior vote in Pennsylvania in a losing effort in the state.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/31/trump-lagging-early-votes-seniors-pennsylvania-00186612

At this point, I don't care about polls. Hillary won all the polls.

 

Voting data is what matters.

 

I'll let @illisdean post polls, he can post them even after Trump loses, if it makes him feel better.

[theblether]

Jon Ralston reporting that the GOP advantage grew in Nevada yesterday. Today is the last day of early voting. 

[theblether]

Bottle crashing time. Dem strategists are now hoping for a 480,000 vote lead in Pennsylvania. Their original target(s) are impossible to hit now. 

 

Their current lead ( 400,000 ) will be destroyed by the GOP on election day. To put it in perspective, the last time the GOP win on election day was that low ( only 400,000 ) was 1968. 

 

In 2020 the GOP election day win in Penn State was 1 million. 

[theblether]

Reports coming in that the Dems have moved resources out of North Carolina ( accepted defeat ) and are trying to shore up Virginia. 

 

GOP is hoping to keep the Dem election day lead under 250,000. I can't work out the maths but the GOP thinks the current Dem lead is 150,000. My maths says 208,000 Dem lead. 

 

If Va votes Trump, Harris is kaput. 

 

 

 

.

Edited 7 hours ago by theblether

[HonestQuietTom]

1 hour ago, theblether said:

Reports coming in that the Dems have moved resources out of North Carolina ( accepted defeat ) and are trying to shore up Virginia. 

 

GOP is hoping to keep the Dem election day lead under 250,000. I can't work out the maths but the GOP thinks the current Dem lead is 150,000. My maths says 208,000 Dem lead. 

 

If Va votes Trump, Harris is kaput. 

 

 

 

.

 

The gender gap is certainly present in early voting....not a promising set of numbers for Trump.

 

 

Not to mention:

 

Even with GOP voters having cast more ballots in battleground states of Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina, Sams argued the Democratic nominee’s campaign is fine with the current numbers and added that they have surpassed surpassed its “internal metric” from two years ago. 

 

“We feel really good about the numbers that we’re seeing in our own early vote push,” Sams said. “We’re exceeding our own internal metrics from 2022, and we’re excited about bringing us home next week.”

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4960816-harris-campaign-senior-advisor-early-voting-numbers/

 

 

 

[HonestQuietTom]

2 hours ago, theblether said:

Bottle crashing time. Dem strategists are now hoping for a 480,000 vote lead in Pennsylvania. Their original target(s) are impossible to hit now. 

 

Their current lead ( 400,000 ) will be destroyed by the GOP on election day. To put it in perspective, the last time the GOP win on election day was that low ( only 400,000 ) was 1968. 

 

In 2020 the GOP election day win in Penn State was 1 million. 

Hmmm,

 

You probably need to expand your reading list to include a few non biased sources.

 

Donald Trump Gets Bad News From Two Early Voting Trends in Pennsylvania

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-bad-news-pennsylvania-early-voting-harris-1978491

 

 

[pattayasan]

17 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

If you think low turnout by men is bad for Trump, look at the Georgia numbers:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/georgia-results

 

Do their husbands know they're out voting alone like this? There's probably gangs of women roaming the streets egging each other on. Who's at home cooking dinner?

[earlinclaifornia]

18 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

At this point, I don't care about polls. Hillary won all the polls.

 

Voting data is what matters.

 

I'll let @illisdean post polls, he can post them even after Trump loses, if it makes him feel better.

What early voting has told us so far about how the 2024 election will turn out

A ‘silver surge’ for the Dems in Pennsylvania

A reversal in the opposite direction seems to be underway in Pennsylvania, where registered Democrats accounted for about 58 percent of the senior vote, a key constituency for Republicans, who only have about 35 percent over the 65+ crowd so far.

“Our expectation going into the early vote was that it would, in general, skew substantially more Republican than in 2020,” Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data firm TargetSmart, told Politico of this “silver surge.”

[Danderman123]

38 minutes ago, earlinclaifornia said:

What early voting has told us so far about how the 2024 election will turn out

A ‘silver surge’ for the Dems in Pennsylvania

A reversal in the opposite direction seems to be underway in Pennsylvania, where registered Democrats accounted for about 58 percent of the senior vote, a key constituency for Republicans, who only have about 35 percent over the 65+ crowd so far.

“Our expectation going into the early vote was that it would, in general, skew substantially more Republican than in 2020,” Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data firm TargetSmart, told Politico of this “silver surge.”

My opinion is that Pennsylvania is almost gone for Trump.

 

Michigan looks bad for Trump, and Trump won't visit Wisconsin again.

 

That's pretty much all Harris needs to win. The remaining swing states are too close to call.

[Danderman123]

5 hours ago, theblether said:

Reports coming in that the Dems have moved resources out of North Carolina ( accepted defeat ) and are trying to shore up Virginia. 

 

GOP is hoping to keep the Dem election day lead under 250,000. I can't work out the maths but the GOP thinks the current Dem lead is 150,000. My maths says 208,000 Dem lead. 

 

If Va votes Trump, Harris is kaput. 

 

 

 

.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/virginia-results

 

Virginia is a lock for Harris.

 

With 50%+ of the electorate having voted already, plus outstanding absentee ballots, with a 56% female participation, Trump would need Election Day turnout to be overwhelmingly heavy and male, which is not going to happen. Big turnout favors the Dems.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Danderman123

[theblether]

20 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/virginia-results

 

Virginia is a lock for Harris.

 

With 50%+ of the electorate having voted already, plus outstanding absentee ballots, with a 56% female participation, Trump would need Election Day turnout to be overwhelmingly heavy and male, which is not going to happen. Big turnout favors the Dems.

 

 

56% female early voting is not unusual. 

 

But to be clear, I'll be shocked if Trump wins Va

[Danderman123]

Ohio is polling fairly close, and early voting is close, as well. I don't think Ohio will go for Harris, but it will be tight.

 

The Iowa early voting is close, as well.

 

Nobody knows what will happen with turnout on Election Day. Will there be 55% turnout? Higher than that, and it's a win for the Dems.

[NanLaew]

On 10/29/2024 at 8:21 PM, Jingthing said:

You don't know anything about Puerto Ricans and how they have been so disrespected and not seen as the citizens that they are, the history of Puerto Rico, the previous racist attacks by Trump on Puerto Ricans, and the disgusting way Trump mistreated Puerto Ricans after their two big storms, cutting off aid but throwing paper towels at them like zoo animals during his term with the clear reason that he didn't worry about their state in the next election because they're not a state, do you?

It wasn't an off color joke.

It was a PUNCH DOWN RACIST attack at a white nationalist event.

Also that was vetted by the Trump campaign and they approved it!

So when they say now it doesn't reflect them, they are LYING. 

 

What's with the pearl clutch? Tony Hinchcliffe roasts people, that's all he does. Even Jon Stewart thinks he's a hoot.

 

 

[Danderman123]

29 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

 

What's with the pearl clutch? Tony Hinchcliffe roasts people, that's all he does. Even Jon Stewart thinks he's a hoot.

 

 

Obviously, you are not Puerto Rican.

 

There is another topic about Joe Biden making a gaffe, calling Trump supporters garbage. You can post over there and tell the Trumpers they are pearl clutchers.

[earlinclaifornia]

Trump says he is going to protect women whether they ‘like it or not’

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/31/politics/video/trump-women-wisconsin-rally-digvid

 October Surprise?

 

My late wife would never let me use that wording ever.