Shock: Gold-standard poll gives Harris slim lead over Trump — in Iowa

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"Typically the final Des Moines Register poll before Election Day is widely anticipated for its unique ability to predict the result. This year, it was mostly being ignored, since neither candidate this year is competing for Iowa’s electoral votes.

But the result — Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump, 47 percent to 44 percent, within the margin of error — raised eyebrows as soon as it was posted to the Register’s website Saturday night.

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/11/02/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/shock-iowa-poll-00186935

[Inderpland]

Indeed. The change in momentum is mind-blowing!

[stevenl]

 

[Expat4life66]

Way to post a fake poll by the DNC that was meant to demoralize republican voters, surely you did this for a joke. Iowa is +10 Trump.  You forgot to post the optic on the cross tabs of that poll that showed only 7% of the respondents top issue is the economy, 55% top issue a threat to democracy and 22% top issue abortion.  When you have a politcal party that never cast a single vote for someone Jake Sullivan and Obama SELECTED its almost as if the DR just canvassed their Democratic employees.  Your like CBS, partial truth...Thats rich.  I;m sure you saw this too, but neglected to balance your post and share it.  

Edited yesterday at 12:03 PM by Expat4life66

[0ffshore360]

IMHO Trump has already conceded in his own personal recognition of the overall electorate .

Of greater interest is how he will react to another defeat given that it will inevitably expose him  to the multitude of pending legal liabilities plus the culmination of his sentencing involving deserved incarceration.

 

 

[HonestQuietTom]

9 minutes ago, Expat4life66 said:

Way to post a fake poll by the DNC that was meant to demoralize republican voters, surely you did this for a joke. Iowa is +10 Trump.  You forgot to post the optic on the cross tabs of that poll that showed only 7% of the respondents top issue is the economy, 55% top issue a threat to democracy and 22% top issue abortion.  When you have a politcal party that never cast a single vote for someone Jake Sullivan and Obama SELECTED its almost as if the DR just canvassed their Democratic employees.  Your like CBS, partial truth...Thats rich.  I;m sure you saw this too, but neglected to balance your post and share it.  

The poll in question has a very strong and respected record.

 

I just don't understand the MAGA brain.

Constantly dismissing any facts or realities that don't align with the cults views is a road to nowhere.

Where are you all heading if you cannot accept truths.

Brainless zombies doing their best to lead us all into a dystopian Hand Maidenesque future.

 

WAKE UP!

 

Edited yesterday at 12:09 PM by HonestQuietTom

[Gottfrid]

39 minutes ago, Inderpland said:

Indeed. The change in momentum is mind-blowing!

Yeah, and very sane.

[Expat4life66]

32 minutes ago, HonestQuietTom said:

The poll in question has a very strong and respected record.

 

I just don't understand the MAGA brain.

Constantly dismissing any facts or realities that don't align with the cults views is a road to nowhere.

Where are you all heading if you cannot accept truths.

Brainless zombies doing their best to lead us all into a dystopian Hand Maidenesque future.

 

WAKE UP!

 

Somebody should check selzers Swiss Bank account for Harris campaign finance money.  I agree it has been pretty objective until this BS poll.  The poll also didn't publish the other questions on the poll until public  backlash and pressure on Twitter calling out their other business dealings.  He is done as a credible pollster.  

Edited yesterday at 12:40 PM by Expat4life66

[stevenl]

7 minutes ago, Expat4life66 said:

Somebody should check selzers Swiss Bank account for Harris campaign finance money.  I agree it has been pretty objective until this BS poll.  The poll also didn't publish the other questions on the poll until public  backlash and pressure on Twitter calling out their other business dealings.  He is done as a credible pollster.  

So you complain about an independent poll and refute the results with an RNC memorandum. 

[Expat4life66]

5 minutes ago, stevenl said:

So you complain about an independent poll and refute the results with an RNC memorandum. 

Its a rediculous outlier poll off by 10 points, you know this but keep baiting.  Surely you are smarter than this.  If not then nothing to see here.   Bother someone else.  See you next Tuesday, bro

[stevenl]

6 minutes ago, Expat4life66 said:

Its a rediculous outlier poll off by 10 points, you know this but keep baiting.  Surely you are smarter than this.  If not then nothing to see here.   Bother someone else.  See you next Tuesday, bro

Earlier you said 'trump by 10', now you say the poll is off by 10.  I think both will be shown wrong next week.

[pattayasan]

Maybe that whole garbage thing didn't pan out too well.

[cdemundo]

43 minutes ago, Expat4life66 said:

Somebody should check selzers Swiss Bank account for Harris campaign finance money.  I agree it has been pretty objective until this BS poll.  The poll also didn't publish the other questions on the poll until public  backlash and pressure on Twitter calling out their other business dealings.  He is done as a credible pollster.  

Shows the depth of your knowledge, your prejudices, and the superficiality of your efforts to inform yourself.

 

Selzer is a woman.

 

Additionally, the obvious lie, just can't help yourself.

"Somebody should check selzers Swiss Bank account for Harris campaign finance money."

Edited yesterday at 01:22 PM by cdemundo

[pattayasan]

3 minutes ago, cdemundo said:

Shows the depth of your knowledge, your prejudices, and the superficiality of your ability to inform yourself.

 

Selzer is a woman.

 

Additionally, the obvious lie, just can't help yourself.

"Somebody should check selzers Swiss Bank account for Harris campaign finance money."

 

It's almost as if MSG didn't matter. Just apart from the comedian did you see the other speakers? All cringeworthy that I saw.

[Expat4life66]

 

9 minutes ago, cdemundo said:

Shows the depth of your knowledge, your prejudices, and the superficiality of your efforts to inform yourself.

 

Selzer is a woman.

 

Additionally, the obvious lie, just can't help yourself.

"Somebody should check selzers Swiss Bank account for Harris campaign finance money."

No S&## sherlock except your political party cant define what a woman is.  So I choose to use a he him pronoun because thats a normal thing.  Democrats have lost 15 to 20 percent of their base, most moderates and after you are done blaming Joe for the loss will have to figure out whats next.  Sucks to be your party...You were cool with LGB and had to push it with the T in 2004-5.  Enjoy the continued Trump tax cuts you have been getting since 2017 

Edited yesterday at 01:29 PM by Expat4life66

[pattayasan]

12 minutes ago, Expat4life66 said:

 

No S&## sherlock except your political party cant define what a woman is.  So I choose to use a he him pronoun because thats a normal thing.  Democrats have lost 15 to 20 percent of their base, most moderates and after you are done blaming Joe for the loss will have to figure out whats next.  Sucks to be your party...You were cool with LGB and had to push it with the T in 2004-5.  Enjoy the continued Trump tax cuts you have been getting since 2017 

 

All those medical professionals are wrong, huh?

[cdemundo]

18 minutes ago, Expat4life66 said:

 

No S&## sherlock except your political party cant define what a woman is.  So I choose to use a he him pronoun because thats a normal thing.  Democrats have lost 15 to 20 percent of their base, most moderates and after you are done blaming Joe for the loss will have to figure out whats next.  Sucks to be your party...You were cool with LGB and had to push it with the T in 2004-5.  Enjoy the continued Trump tax cuts you have been getting since 2017 

"So I choose to use a he him pronoun because thats a normal thing. "

 

Oh please, you chose to call a well-know pollster who happens to be a woman "he him"?

And you claim "thats a normal thing"?

If it wasn't for the strict rules of this forum I would be tempted to call you a fool for saying that.

 

LOL.

 

Let me reiterate:

You show the lack of depth of your knowledge, your prejudices, and the superficiality of your efforts to inform yourself.

 

[Expat4life66]

8 minutes ago, cdemundo said:

"So I choose to use a he him pronoun because thats a normal thing. "

 

Oh please, you chose to call a well-know pollster who happens to be a woman "he him"?

And you claim "thats a normal thing"?

If it wasn't for the strict rules of this forum I would be tempted to call you a fool for saying that.

 

LOL.

 

Let me reiterate:

You show the lack of depth of your knowledge, your prejudices, and the superficiality of your efforts to inform yourself.

 

dont give yourself a coronary, see a therapist.  sick of your drivel on this site.   The only person that matters is Jesus Christ and whatever weird crap you are subscribing to up to you.   

Edited yesterday at 02:09 PM by Expat4life66

[placeholder]

14 hours ago, Expat4life66 said:

Its a rediculous outlier poll off by 10 points, you know this but keep baiting.  Surely you are smarter than this.  If not then nothing to see here.   Bother someone else.  See you next Tuesday, bro

Had you bothered to educate yourself and read the article, you would have learned that Ann Selzer, who runs this poll, correctly predicted Trump's percentage of the votes in both 2016 and 2020. In both cases she predicted much more accurate results than did most other pollsters. You would also know that very few polls have been taken of the Iowa electorate re the presidential race. From September onward there have only been 3 polls not explicitly aligned with Democrats or Republicans. (The polls marked with a red diamond are affiliated with Republicans). So, how could her poll be an outlier?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/iowa/

 

It doesn't mean that the Selzer poll is correct. Even the best polls, of which hers is one, can be badly wrong about 5% of the time.

[Danderman123]

18 hours ago, Expat4life66 said:

Way to post a fake poll by the DNC 

 

Please provide a link proving your claim the Seltzer in Iowa is a fake poll, or that Seltzer has a connection with the DNC.

 

Until that link is provided, I will assume the rest of your poll was just a mindless Gish Gallop, triggered by the polling in Iowa.

[Danderman123]

I wonder if the Harris team went all in on Iowa, without telling anyone.

[Captain Flack]

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[Inderpland]

Trump Plummets in Election Betting Odds After Shock Poll Shows Him Losing Iowa to Harris

 

'Election prediction markets tilted heavily towards Vice President Kamala Harris overnight after a bombshell poll released Saturday showed her ahead of former President Donald Trump in Iowa.'

[Captain Flack]

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