The Coming Reality Under the 57th President

[Walker88]

So here we are on the brink of having our first convicted felon as President. Here’s a few things I think we can expect as reality takes hold. (Your opinion may differ, and that is what a Forum is for. I say come back in 2 to 4 years and see who was right. Personally, I see the writing on the wall and am battening down the hatches, plus adopting whatever other cliches appropriate to the times. I did not reach my wealth status 'going with the flow', but rather seeing when the lemmings are running toward the cliff.)

 

Internationally, there are a couple of types of people one does not want to be. The first is Ukrainian. Aid will be cut off, and Putin will have a green light to slaughter as he pleases. The Pres-elect claims he can end the war “in an afternoon”. He cannot. Wars do not end like that, especially when the aggressor side is given the green light and the victim side is trying to protect their own freedom and liberty. Ukraine will become an abattoir. Poles and Estonians are likely to become increasingly worried, because they know they are next, and there will no longer be a NATO to discourage aggressors.

 

Neither would one want to be an innocent Palestinian, someone who had it tough enough under Hamas or the Palestinian Authority, but who are going to be just cannon fodder for an unleashed and unrestrained Netanyahu. From the frying pan under Hamas into the fire of the IDF. In some form we will hear---re Ukraine and Palestine---“Kill’em all and let god sort’em out”. Compassion is so ‘yesterday’.

 

Terrorists are ‘manufactured’ in two ways (I spent years directly interacting with fundamental and psychopathic terrorists, so allow me to believe my opinion has some merit). One is via a warped ideology, such as the literal interpretation of some supposedly deity-dictated text or story. The second way is out of revenge for something done to a person or to people like him or her. The former always requires unpleasant means to address, as religious fantasies and superstitions are almost impossible to erase; the latter becomes its own feedback system (“We killed some terrorists today, but how many more did we just create?”). Guaranteed there will be more terrorism and more violent terrorism on a scale that will dwarf 9-11. Having dealt with the more infamous fundamentalist groups, I know among them they have some brilliant but vicious folks who studied things like biochemistry or nuclear physics at the world’s top universities. Something like a dirty bomb will be the B-team act. Bioterror weapons are what has long scared me, and the fundamentalists learned a lot from Covid, plus they have studied how to alter the protein structure of viruses to make them more lethal and faster-spreading. (I remember years ago they were working on weaponizing smallpox, an existing virus readily obtainable, but now can be altered via structural manipulation, and small pox is a virus where the vaccine really only lasts a decade or two.)

 

The vast majority of terror attacks over the last 2 decades have been stopped because the entire free world cooperated in sharing information and intelligence from their own sources and terror group penetrations. Most of these thwarted terror attacks remain secret. That cooperation, at least with the US, will now stop, as no ally trusts that intel will be guarded under the new President. Perhaps readers will remember that an Israeli penetration of ISIS was outed and eliminated because of what then-President shared with Russian FM Lavrov and Ambassador Kislyak in the Oval Office meeting just after the firing of DirFBI Comey. Also, all foreign intel services with whom the CIA has liaison relationships are well aware of the stolen documents taken to Mar-a-Lago, documents which included HCS (Human Clandestine Sources). No intel service wants to risk getting its sources compromised by someone incapable of keeping his mouth shut, and who does not take secrecy seriously. Liaison services already warned their US counterparts that a possible return of that guy to the Oval Office means sharing intel is dead. The US intel community now will have to go it alone.

 

A corollary to this is that even within the US intel community, attrition is going to explode, as men and women who have spent their careers addressing autocratic behavior, and who have seen the consequences firsthand of what loss of freedom means, will leave the intel services, leaving mostly the dregs behind. The intel community is like any other organization, operating under the Pareto Principle (20:80). The 20% who do most everything are going to leave. Their skills and brains have market value meaning they have places they can go, whereas the dregs have no choice but to stay and take their US Taxpayer salary.

 

Bottom line: the US homeland WILL experience a major terror attack in the next few years.

 

In matters of economics, the reality of the Pres-elect’s incompetence will also evidence itself sooner rather than later. He campaigned on things over which he has no control, and not even the ‘concept of a plan’. Exactly how is he going to bring down the price of bacon? If he’s 8 years into delivering the ‘best healthcare plan ever’, and it’s still only a concept of a plan, how exactly does he plan to tame worldwide inflation? Tariffs? That isn’t going to do anything but make it worse. Deport the undocumented workers that are part of what kept inflation down, because they tend to be paid less? Well, maybe his rallygoers want to pick strawberries for a living? Work in an abattoir making bacon?

 

As I have noted in a number of my posts, one of the seemingly intractable issues the entire world is facing today is the obviation of unskilled and/or replaceable labor. Those without marketable skills and talents are being left behind. AI will only play Pacman and move up the food chain into white collar professions. NOBODY has a solution. This isn’t like the introduction of the McCormick Combine, when displaced agricultural workers could move into the factories of the Industrial Revolution. Today, most all businesses---save for things like nail painting and eyelashes so championed by Thai women---are not human labor intensive. Displaced workers have nowhere to go. This has been happening for years, and so far it has resulted in the rise of autocrat wannabes, who make pie-in-the-sky promises they cannot deliver, but when false hope is all someone has, they still grasp it. There is no way the Pres-elect can change the reality of the modern technological world on the brink of a an even greater sea change with the advances in AI. I don’t know what happens when all those who voted for him because of false hopes come to realize he doesn’t even have a concept of a plan. Maybe we'll all just paint each other's nails.

 

I have no doubt he will destroy the growth that happened under Biden-Harris. Yes, that growth was uneven, as it required workers to have marketable skills, but the policies the guy has stated he plans are not a solution. The post-election euphoria is going to be short lived. It will be a great, and perhaps last opportunity to cash out and get lean. Whatever asset prices do over the next week, or maybe even early into his term, will not last. A good trader always cashes out into the ‘madness of crowds’.

 

All of the negative trends the world has been seeing over the last decade or two are going to accelerate. We’re going deeper into a dog-eat-dog world, where cross border aggression will be either accepted or ignored, where compassion will be in sparse supply, where labor continues to be obviated, and where massive debts will finally become unsustainable. The zibel (an Arabic word) is going to hit the fan.

 

The optimism some are feeling now will be short lived. I have no doubt the planet is moving into a major period of strife, of mayhem, of oppression, of declining personal freedom, and an even further shifting of wealth into the haves and have nots. Those just getting by now are in that position because they have already become largely redundant, but government money is still there to support them. It will only get worse for them, and bad for most everybody (unless you’ve packed your bug-out bag and have an isolated residence somewhere). Those who have enjoyed the growth and prosperity since 2020 cannot become complacent. Cash out now, diversify in smart ways, and prepare for what is likely to be the ugliest time generations from the Baby Boomers onward have ever experienced.

 

Terrorism, international strife, economic decline, social unrest and government-driven oppression are on everyone’s menu. Putting your head in the sand and thinking your messiah can save you are like the folks who screamed for their deity when the tsunami was approaching. Their screams did not fall on deaf ears, because there were no ears to hear their screams. The ears that are real, such as the new President, simply do not care, and even if he did, he has no clue how to save anyone.

 

No doubt some will disagree and think we're on the verge of great prosperity and peace. I'm taking the other side of that bet. Come back in 2026-2028 and make me eat crow, but I bet even crows are going to be scarce.

 

[novacova]

Such hysterics…

[novacova]

6 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

The Coming Reality Under the 57th President

…the 47th

[GammaGlobulin]

How many more years before we see ....

Number 57?

 

[EVENKEEL]

57th president of what country? 

[blaze master]

 

What stage of the grieving process is this rant ?

 

[Celsius]

are you ok sweetheart? 

[Gecko123]

Trump's economic plans are short-sighted and the post-election euphoria will quickly wear off.

 

Yesterday's bounce in the markets was pretty much all because the Harris Walz plan to increase corporate tax rates will be shelved, thus increasing corporate profitability. But note that Treasury rates also shot up yesterday, increasing borrowing, mortgage and fiscal debt financing costs. I think it is safe to say the bond market is apprehensive about Trump.

 

Trump's promise to cut taxes on social security may be music to the ears of the American senior citizens on this forum, but let's not overlook that this would accelerate the projected date Social security would be depleted. Undoubtably some are betting they won't be around when this happens and have a 'live for today' attitude, but the truth is that what this policy would do is unfairly burden future generations by either forcing taxes in the future to be raised to cover this shortfall, or having future entitlement programs severely cut back.

 

Trump's policies of driving down inflation by increasing fossil fuel production, pulling out of climate treaties, and threatening to reverse the Green New Deal Act are all similarly short-sighted and fail to recognize that inflation drivers in the food and housing sectors are being driven by other factors besides fuel costs. Climate change is a big driver of food inflation because it has a major effect on farm yields as well as production costs, and while increasing fossil fuel production may reduce the price at the pump, over the long term it will increase climate related food and housing costs on a far more devastating scale.

 

Regarding housing inflation, Trump's policies completely discount the effect climate change is having on housing costs. Sea level rise, forest fire, flood, and extreme weather events making more and more areas less habitable or the costs of adapting to living in these areas more and more expensive. From wildfires, ground water depletion, drought, hurricanes, flash floods, insurance costs or unavailability these events are becoming increasingly more difficult to ignore. Trump also ignores that a significant portion of migration pressures are climate related, preferring instead to demonize all migrants as criminals.

 

Another factor driving housing inflation (not to mention homelessness) is corporate investment in the residential housing market, particularly single family homes, which is contributing significantly to the unaffordability of the housing market for lower and middle income families. A big driver behind this corporate push into the housing market is the wealth disparity which has been accelerated by Trump's personal income tax credits enacted during his first term.

 

Regarding his tariff plans, I doubt these will ever be enacted, for the simple reason that they will be politically unpalatable due to their inflationary effect. In addition, if they ever were enacted, they would probably generate a tit-for-tat trade war which would throw the global economy into a severe recession, if not, a depression. The US dollar continues to enjoy reserve currency status, and the US has abused this status far beyond what is reasonable, but in a trade war scenario, you can't rule out that an all out trade war wouldn't result in foreign countries, in particular China, boycotting buying US debt, which would result in rates on US Treasuries and US borrowing costs to sky rocket, or throwing the US or global economy into a tailspin which would make 2008 look like a walk in the park. 

 

For all the bellyaching about how badly the economy is doing, at least on paper, in many ways Trump is inheriting an economy which is the envy of the world: low unemployment, a Fed in easing mode, a record high stock market. But beneath the surface there's an unsustainable debt and deficit problem which Trump appears to have no intention whatsoever of addressing. The truth is that much of  America's financial resilience over the past couple of decades is a mirage because it has been financed by deficit spending for entitlement programs. When you look at how tax dollars are spent, you quickly see that either taxes will need to be raised or entitlement programs will have to be cut to solve this problem. Getting rid of the FDA, as RFK Jr apparently is suggesting, or gutting the DOJ or FBI as Steve Bannon is now suggesting, is not going to solve the problem.

 

 

The question that has remained unanswered over the course of the last elections, and may well need to be addressed in the next four years is how will this imbalance be corrected. Will it be done in a humanistic or callous manner? I think Trump's working class supporters are going to soon be disabused of the notion that they will emerge unscathed from his 'I am your vengeance, I am your retribution' approach to problem solving, and I somberly agree with Walker88's assessment that they will live to regret their election choice.

 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by Gecko123

[tai4de2]

I should have stopped reading after this:

 

Quote

Poles and Estonians are likely to become increasingly worried, because they know they are next

 

But out of morbid curiosity, I continued on. I actually stopped reading after this:

 

Quote

there will no longer be a NATO

 

I honestly don't know how some among us are able to cope with the real world.

Edited 8 hours ago by tai4de2

[KannikaP]

5 hours ago, Walker88 said:

So here we are on the brink of having our first convicted felon as President. Here’s a few things I think we can expect as reality takes hold. (Your opinion may differ, and that is what a Forum is for. I say come back in 2 to 4 years and see who was right. Personally, I see the writing on the wall and am battening down the hatches, plus adopting whatever other cliches appropriate to the times. I did not reach my wealth status 'going with the flow', but rather seeing when the lemmings are running toward the cliff.)

 

Internationally, there are a couple of types of people one does not want to be. The first is Ukrainian. Aid will be cut off, and Putin will have a green light to slaughter as he pleases. The Pres-elect claims he can end the war “in an afternoon”. He cannot. Wars do not end like that, especially when the aggressor side is given the green light and the victim side is trying to protect their own freedom and liberty. Ukraine will become an abattoir. Poles and Estonians are likely to become increasingly worried, because they know they are next, and there will no longer be a NATO to discourage aggressors.

 

Neither would one want to be an innocent Palestinian, someone who had it tough enough under Hamas or the Palestinian Authority, but who are going to be just cannon fodder for an unleashed and unrestrained Netanyahu. From the frying pan under Hamas into the fire of the IDF. In some form we will hear---re Ukraine and Palestine---“Kill’em all and let god sort’em out”. Compassion is so ‘yesterday’.

 

Terrorists are ‘manufactured’ in two ways (I spent years directly interacting with fundamental and psychopathic terrorists, so allow me to believe my opinion has some merit). One is via a warped ideology, such as the literal interpretation of some supposedly deity-dictated text or story. The second way is out of revenge for something done to a person or to people like him or her. The former always requires unpleasant means to address, as religious fantasies and superstitions are almost impossible to erase; the latter becomes its own feedback system (“We killed some terrorists today, but how many more did we just create?”). Guaranteed there will be more terrorism and more violent terrorism on a scale that will dwarf 9-11. Having dealt with the more infamous fundamentalist groups, I know among them they have some brilliant but vicious folks who studied things like biochemistry or nuclear physics at the world’s top universities. Something like a dirty bomb will be the B-team act. Bioterror weapons are what has long scared me, and the fundamentalists learned a lot from Covid, plus they have studied how to alter the protein structure of viruses to make them more lethal and faster-spreading. (I remember years ago they were working on weaponizing smallpox, an existing virus readily obtainable, but now can be altered via structural manipulation, and small pox is a virus where the vaccine really only lasts a decade or two.)

 

The vast majority of terror attacks over the last 2 decades have been stopped because the entire free world cooperated in sharing information and intelligence from their own sources and terror group penetrations. Most of these thwarted terror attacks remain secret. That cooperation, at least with the US, will now stop, as no ally trusts that intel will be guarded under the new President. Perhaps readers will remember that an Israeli penetration of ISIS was outed and eliminated because of what then-President shared with Russian FM Lavrov and Ambassador Kislyak in the Oval Office meeting just after the firing of DirFBI Comey. Also, all foreign intel services with whom the CIA has liaison relationships are well aware of the stolen documents taken to Mar-a-Lago, documents which included HCS (Human Clandestine Sources). No intel service wants to risk getting its sources compromised by someone incapable of keeping his mouth shut, and who does not take secrecy seriously. Liaison services already warned their US counterparts that a possible return of that guy to the Oval Office means sharing intel is dead. The US intel community now will have to go it alone.

 

A corollary to this is that even within the US intel community, attrition is going to explode, as men and women who have spent their careers addressing autocratic behavior, and who have seen the consequences firsthand of what loss of freedom means, will leave the intel services, leaving mostly the dregs behind. The intel community is like any other organization, operating under the Pareto Principle (20:80). The 20% who do most everything are going to leave. Their skills and brains have market value meaning they have places they can go, whereas the dregs have no choice but to stay and take their US Taxpayer salary.

 

Bottom line: the US homeland WILL experience a major terror attack in the next few years.

 

In matters of economics, the reality of the Pres-elect’s incompetence will also evidence itself sooner rather than later. He campaigned on things over which he has no control, and not even the ‘concept of a plan’. Exactly how is he going to bring down the price of bacon? If he’s 8 years into delivering the ‘best healthcare plan ever’, and it’s still only a concept of a plan, how exactly does he plan to tame worldwide inflation? Tariffs? That isn’t going to do anything but make it worse. Deport the undocumented workers that are part of what kept inflation down, because they tend to be paid less? Well, maybe his rallygoers want to pick strawberries for a living? Work in an abattoir making bacon?

 

As I have noted in a number of my posts, one of the seemingly intractable issues the entire world is facing today is the obviation of unskilled and/or replaceable labor. Those without marketable skills and talents are being left behind. AI will only play Pacman and move up the food chain into white collar professions. NOBODY has a solution. This isn’t like the introduction of the McCormick Combine, when displaced agricultural workers could move into the factories of the Industrial Revolution. Today, most all businesses---save for things like nail painting and eyelashes so championed by Thai women---are not human labor intensive. Displaced workers have nowhere to go. This has been happening for years, and so far it has resulted in the rise of autocrat wannabes, who make pie-in-the-sky promises they cannot deliver, but when false hope is all someone has, they still grasp it. There is no way the Pres-elect can change the reality of the modern technological world on the brink of a an even greater sea change with the advances in AI. I don’t know what happens when all those who voted for him because of false hopes come to realize he doesn’t even have a concept of a plan. Maybe we'll all just paint each other's nails.

 

I have no doubt he will destroy the growth that happened under Biden-Harris. Yes, that growth was uneven, as it required workers to have marketable skills, but the policies the guy has stated he plans are not a solution. The post-election euphoria is going to be short lived. It will be a great, and perhaps last opportunity to cash out and get lean. Whatever asset prices do over the next week, or maybe even early into his term, will not last. A good trader always cashes out into the ‘madness of crowds’.

 

All of the negative trends the world has been seeing over the last decade or two are going to accelerate. We’re going deeper into a dog-eat-dog world, where cross border aggression will be either accepted or ignored, where compassion will be in sparse supply, where labor continues to be obviated, and where massive debts will finally become unsustainable. The zibel (an Arabic word) is going to hit the fan.

 

The optimism some are feeling now will be short lived. I have no doubt the planet is moving into a major period of strife, of mayhem, of oppression, of declining personal freedom, and an even further shifting of wealth into the haves and have nots. Those just getting by now are in that position because they have already become largely redundant, but government money is still there to support them. It will only get worse for them, and bad for most everybody (unless you’ve packed your bug-out bag and have an isolated residence somewhere). Those who have enjoyed the growth and prosperity since 2020 cannot become complacent. Cash out now, diversify in smart ways, and prepare for what is likely to be the ugliest time generations from the Baby Boomers onward have ever experienced.

 

Terrorism, international strife, economic decline, social unrest and government-driven oppression are on everyone’s menu. Putting your head in the sand and thinking your messiah can save you are like the folks who screamed for their deity when the tsunami was approaching. Their screams did not fall on deaf ears, because there were no ears to hear their screams. The ears that are real, such as the new President, simply do not care, and even if he did, he has no clue how to save anyone.

 

No doubt some will disagree and think we're on the verge of great prosperity and peace. I'm taking the other side of that bet. Come back in 2026-2028 and make me eat crow, but I bet even crows are going to be scarce.

 

Which AI did you use for this please?

[bangadang]

Are you jumping forward 40 years? Such foresight!  

[KhunLA]

1 hour ago, Gecko123 said:

 

The question that has remained unanswered over the course of the last elections, and may well need to be addressed in the next four years is how will this imbalance be corrected. Will it be done in a humanistic or callous manner? I think Trump's working class supporters are going to soon be disabused of the notion that they will emerge unscathed from his 'I am your vengeance, I am your retribution' approach to problem solving, and I somberly agree with Walker88's assessment that they will live to regret their election choice.

 

 

235 yr old country, with 45 other administrations, and everything is Trump's fault, and if he can't correct everything, well, the future is all his fault also.

 

Not the 535, revolving door of mostly career politicians serving (themselves) or the 1000's of lobbyist, that probably write most of the laws ... IMHO ...

 

... but everything (past, present & future) is Trump's fault.

 

GOT IT ... 

 

He truly is a GOD with that kind of control 

Edited 7 hours ago by KhunLA

[G_Money]

6 hours ago, Walker88 said:

So here we are on the brink of having our first convicted felon as President. Here’s a few things I think we can expect as reality takes hold. (Your opinion may differ, and that is what a Forum is for. I say come back in 2 to 4 years and see who was right. Personally, I see the writing on the wall and am battening down the hatches, plus adopting whatever other cliches appropriate to the times. I did not reach my wealth status 'going with the flow', but rather seeing when the lemmings are running toward the cliff.)

 

Internationally, there are a couple of types of people one does not want to be. The first is Ukrainian. Aid will be cut off, and Putin will have a green light to slaughter as he pleases. The Pres-elect claims he can end the war “in an afternoon”. He cannot. Wars do not end like that, especially when the aggressor side is given the green light and the victim side is trying to protect their own freedom and liberty. Ukraine will become an abattoir. Poles and Estonians are likely to become increasingly worried, because they know they are next, and there will no longer be a NATO to discourage aggressors.

 

Neither would one want to be an innocent Palestinian, someone who had it tough enough under Hamas or the Palestinian Authority, but who are going to be just cannon fodder for an unleashed and unrestrained Netanyahu. From the frying pan under Hamas into the fire of the IDF. In some form we will hear---re Ukraine and Palestine---“Kill’em all and let god sort’em out”. Compassion is so ‘yesterday’.

 

Terrorists are ‘manufactured’ in two ways (I spent years directly interacting with fundamental and psychopathic terrorists, so allow me to believe my opinion has some merit). One is via a warped ideology, such as the literal interpretation of some supposedly deity-dictated text or story. The second way is out of revenge for something done to a person or to people like him or her. The former always requires unpleasant means to address, as religious fantasies and superstitions are almost impossible to erase; the latter becomes its own feedback system (“We killed some terrorists today, but how many more did we just create?”). Guaranteed there will be more terrorism and more violent terrorism on a scale that will dwarf 9-11. Having dealt with the more infamous fundamentalist groups, I know among them they have some brilliant but vicious folks who studied things like biochemistry or nuclear physics at the world’s top universities. Something like a dirty bomb will be the B-team act. Bioterror weapons are what has long scared me, and the fundamentalists learned a lot from Covid, plus they have studied how to alter the protein structure of viruses to make them more lethal and faster-spreading. (I remember years ago they were working on weaponizing smallpox, an existing virus readily obtainable, but now can be altered via structural manipulation, and small pox is a virus where the vaccine really only lasts a decade or two.)

 

The vast majority of terror attacks over the last 2 decades have been stopped because the entire free world cooperated in sharing information and intelligence from their own sources and terror group penetrations. Most of these thwarted terror attacks remain secret. That cooperation, at least with the US, will now stop, as no ally trusts that intel will be guarded under the new President. Perhaps readers will remember that an Israeli penetration of ISIS was outed and eliminated because of what then-President shared with Russian FM Lavrov and Ambassador Kislyak in the Oval Office meeting just after the firing of DirFBI Comey. Also, all foreign intel services with whom the CIA has liaison relationships are well aware of the stolen documents taken to Mar-a-Lago, documents which included HCS (Human Clandestine Sources). No intel service wants to risk getting its sources compromised by someone incapable of keeping his mouth shut, and who does not take secrecy seriously. Liaison services already warned their US counterparts that a possible return of that guy to the Oval Office means sharing intel is dead. The US intel community now will have to go it alone.

 

A corollary to this is that even within the US intel community, attrition is going to explode, as men and women who have spent their careers addressing autocratic behavior, and who have seen the consequences firsthand of what loss of freedom means, will leave the intel services, leaving mostly the dregs behind. The intel community is like any other organization, operating under the Pareto Principle (20:80). The 20% who do most everything are going to leave. Their skills and brains have market value meaning they have places they can go, whereas the dregs have no choice but to stay and take their US Taxpayer salary.

 

Bottom line: the US homeland WILL experience a major terror attack in the next few years.

 

In matters of economics, the reality of the Pres-elect’s incompetence will also evidence itself sooner rather than later. He campaigned on things over which he has no control, and not even the ‘concept of a plan’. Exactly how is he going to bring down the price of bacon? If he’s 8 years into delivering the ‘best healthcare plan ever’, and it’s still only a concept of a plan, how exactly does he plan to tame worldwide inflation? Tariffs? That isn’t going to do anything but make it worse. Deport the undocumented workers that are part of what kept inflation down, because they tend to be paid less? Well, maybe his rallygoers want to pick strawberries for a living? Work in an abattoir making bacon?

 

As I have noted in a number of my posts, one of the seemingly intractable issues the entire world is facing today is the obviation of unskilled and/or replaceable labor. Those without marketable skills and talents are being left behind. AI will only play Pacman and move up the food chain into white collar professions. NOBODY has a solution. This isn’t like the introduction of the McCormick Combine, when displaced agricultural workers could move into the factories of the Industrial Revolution. Today, most all businesses---save for things like nail painting and eyelashes so championed by Thai women---are not human labor intensive. Displaced workers have nowhere to go. This has been happening for years, and so far it has resulted in the rise of autocrat wannabes, who make pie-in-the-sky promises they cannot deliver, but when false hope is all someone has, they still grasp it. There is no way the Pres-elect can change the reality of the modern technological world on the brink of a an even greater sea change with the advances in AI. I don’t know what happens when all those who voted for him because of false hopes come to realize he doesn’t even have a concept of a plan. Maybe we'll all just paint each other's nails.

 

I have no doubt he will destroy the growth that happened under Biden-Harris. Yes, that growth was uneven, as it required workers to have marketable skills, but the policies the guy has stated he plans are not a solution. The post-election euphoria is going to be short lived. It will be a great, and perhaps last opportunity to cash out and get lean. Whatever asset prices do over the next week, or maybe even early into his term, will not last. A good trader always cashes out into the ‘madness of crowds’.

 

All of the negative trends the world has been seeing over the last decade or two are going to accelerate. We’re going deeper into a dog-eat-dog world, where cross border aggression will be either accepted or ignored, where compassion will be in sparse supply, where labor continues to be obviated, and where massive debts will finally become unsustainable. The zibel (an Arabic word) is going to hit the fan.

 

The optimism some are feeling now will be short lived. I have no doubt the planet is moving into a major period of strife, of mayhem, of oppression, of declining personal freedom, and an even further shifting of wealth into the haves and have nots. Those just getting by now are in that position because they have already become largely redundant, but government money is still there to support them. It will only get worse for them, and bad for most everybody (unless you’ve packed your bug-out bag and have an isolated residence somewhere). Those who have enjoyed the growth and prosperity since 2020 cannot become complacent. Cash out now, diversify in smart ways, and prepare for what is likely to be the ugliest time generations from the Baby Boomers onward have ever experienced.

 

Terrorism, international strife, economic decline, social unrest and government-driven oppression are on everyone’s menu. Putting your head in the sand and thinking your messiah can save you are like the folks who screamed for their deity when the tsunami was approaching. Their screams did not fall on deaf ears, because there were no ears to hear their screams. The ears that are real, such as the new President, simply do not care, and even if he did, he has no clue how to save anyone.

 

No doubt some will disagree and think we're on the verge of great prosperity and peace. I'm taking the other side of that bet. Come back in 2026-2028 and make me eat crow, but I bet even crows are going to be scarce.

 

Who’s your daddy now?

 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by G_Money

[G_Money]

1 hour ago, Gecko123 said:

Trump's economic plans are short-sighted and the post-election euphoria will quickly wear off.

 

Yesterday's bounce in the markets was pretty much all because the Harris Walz plan to increase corporate tax rates will be shelved, thus increasing corporate profitability. But note that Treasury rates also shot up yesterday, increasing borrowing, mortgage and fiscal debt financing costs. I think it is safe to say the bond market is apprehensive about Trump.

 

Trump's promise to cut taxes on social security may be music to the ears of the American senior citizens on this forum, but let's not overlook that this would accelerate the projected date Social security would be depleted. Undoubtably some are betting they won't be around when this happens and have a 'live for today' attitude, but the truth is that what this policy would do is unfairly burden future generations by either forcing taxes in the future to be raised to cover this shortfall, or having future entitlement programs severely cut back.

 

Trump's policies of driving down inflation by increasing fossil fuel production, pulling out of climate treaties, and threatening to reverse the Green New Deal Act are all similarly short-sighted and fail to recognize that inflation drivers in the food and housing sectors are being driven by other factors besides fuel costs. Climate change is a big driver of food inflation because it has a major effect on farm yields as well as production costs, and while increasing fossil fuel production may reduce the price at the pump, over the long term it will increase climate related food and housing costs on a far more devastating scale.

 

Regarding housing inflation, Trump's policies completely discount the effect climate change is having on housing costs. Sea level rise, forest fire, flood, and extreme weather events making more and more areas less habitable or the costs of adapting to living in these areas more and more expensive. From wildfires, ground water depletion, drought, hurricanes, flash floods, insurance costs or unavailability these events are becoming increasingly more difficult to ignore. Trump also ignores that a significant portion of migration pressures are climate related, preferring instead to demonize all migrants as criminals.

 

Another factor driving housing inflation (not to mention homelessness) is corporate investment in the residential housing market, particularly single family homes, which is contributing significantly to the unaffordability of the housing market for lower and middle income families. A big driver behind this corporate push into the housing market is the wealth disparity which has been accelerated by Trump's personal income tax credits enacted during his first term.

 

Regarding his tariff plans, I doubt these will ever be enacted, for the simple reason that they will be politically unpalatable due to their inflationary effect. In addition, if they ever were enacted, they would probably generate a tit-for-tat trade war which would throw the global economy into a severe recession, if not, a depression. The US dollar continues to enjoy reserve currency status, and the US has abused this status far beyond what is reasonable, but in a trade war scenario, you can't rule out that an all out trade war wouldn't result in foreign countries, in particular China, boycotting buying US debt, which would result in rates on US Treasuries and US borrowing costs to sky rocket, or throwing the US or global economy into a tailspin which would make 2008 look like a walk in the park. 

 

For all the bellyaching about how badly the economy is doing, at least on paper, in many ways Trump is inheriting an economy which is the envy of the world: low unemployment, a Fed in easing mode, a record high stock market. But beneath the surface there's an unsustainable debt and deficit problem which Trump appears to have no intention whatsoever of addressing. The truth is that much of  America's financial resilience over the past couple of decades is a mirage because it has been financed by deficit spending for entitlement programs. When you look at how tax dollars are spent, you quickly see that either taxes will need to be raised or entitlement programs will have to be cut to solve this problem. Getting rid of the FDA, as RFK Jr apparently is suggesting, or gutting the DOJ or FBI as Steve Bannon is now suggesting, is not going to solve the problem.

 

 

The question that has remained unanswered over the course of the last elections, and may well need to be addressed in the next four years is how will this imbalance be corrected. Will it be done in a humanistic or callous manner? I think Trump's working class supporters are going to soon be disabused of the notion that they will emerge unscathed from his 'I am your vengeance, I am your retribution' approach to problem solving, and I somberly agree with Walker88's assessment that they will live to regret their election choice.

 

 

The predictions made by yourself and Walker will flow down the same sewer pipe as Dandermans and Jingthing.

 

Like they always do.

[Walker88]

11 hours ago, EVENKEEL said:

57th president of what country? 

Ah, it was a typo. Time ran out to correct it.

 

Tough to be as perfect as your messiah.

 

As for my outlook, all of you are welcome to come back here in a year or two and laugh, but I suspect you'll be in the grip of financial calamity, especially the little short guy who putzes around Pattaya on a red Vespa, living off a pension paid by the US Taxpayer, and using the funds to buy women his "charms" are insufficient to get without paying a few thousand baht. That pension is either going to disappear, or be inflated into nothing.

 

I suspect a Recession was in the cards no matter who won, as the current advance is long in the tooth and the debt buildup too severe, but the abject incompetence of the POTUS-elect guarantees that it will be much worse than it has to be. The US has been lucky, under the leadership of Biden-Harris, to avoid what has already hit the other G7 nations. US growth since 2020 has been three times the G7 average. Felonistas can argue the other G7 can catch up, but I am betting instead on the US sinking, especially as Europe is going to do worse as Russia is allowed to annex Ukraine and turn its eyes to Poland and Estonia.

 

The equity market rally might last anywhere from a day or even shortly into his term, but it should be used as an opportunity to lay off risk to the Greater Fool. When the lemmings are running for the cliff, best to get out of their way.

 

I like to take an occasional look at a famous haiku from Matsuo Basho, as considering its meaning served me well in my second career as a hedge fund manager:

 

Go ahead, cricket

Chirp away

I know it's Autumn

 

Always fade the fools.

[Cryingdick]

Holy walls of text Batman. OP I really hope you are using AI to generate this stuff.  For example I just pasted your first post into ChatGPT and asked it to refute every point made in an equally irate, unpleasant biased tone. I won't bother posting it but you lost the argument because it scrapes every fact and is based upon real data you can't think of.

 

Otherwise your writing seems like a real productive use of your time and a nifty little hobby.

[zmisha]

Interesting. Some Americans say they voted for Trump, others say they voted for Harris. But our leader, Vladimir, told us that Americans vote for electors that (as they hope) should vote for someone they like. So the privilege to vote for leader is exclusively reserved for Russians, North Koreans and other nations, but not for Americans.

[novacova]

3 minutes ago, zmisha said:

Interesting. Some Americans say they voted for Trump, others say they voted for Harris. But our leader, Vladimir, told us that Americans vote for electors that (as they hope) should vote for someone they like. So the privilege to vote for leader is exclusively reserved for Russians, North Koreans and other nations, but not for Americans.

The above post makes absolutely no sense. In the US people vote as they please, though unfortunately most US citizens on both sides vote emotionally. A great leftist once said “it’s the economy stupid”. Personally this one votes on whatever will bring the most advantage to the economy.