Rachel Reeves Faces Mounting Pressure Pound falls and Rising Borrowing Costs

[Will B Good]

4 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

 

Well if the BoE target is 2% then 14 years accumulated would be 28%.

 

So given 3 massive events, an accumulated total of 40% is rather good going.

 

Brexit, Covid and Truss.

[The Cyclist]

2 minutes ago, Will B Good said:

 

Brexit, Covid and Truss.

 

Covid and Ukraine were the biggest drivers in UK inflation

[Will B Good]

7 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

 

Covid and Ukraine were the biggest drivers in UK inflation

 

• 2016–2020: Brexit.

• 2021–2024: COVID-19 pandemic, Ukraine war.

 

So not Brexit

[candide]

29 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

 

What was the UK's priority for 2023 ?
 

I seem to recall it was getting inflation under control from a 2022 high of over 10%.

 

How high will inflation go under Labour ? Will we get into the high teens or perhaps over the 20% mark ?

Fact is that it wasn't moderately thriving. The good Q1 2024 was an exception, and the downtrend already started in Q2.

 

I don't think the Labour government will be more successful than the Tories, maybe worse, considering the general context.

 

I don't have any crystal ball at hand, but a 2 digits inflation rate is very unlikely. Global inflation seems to have been stabilised and global energy prices are on a decreasing trend. Variations resulting from country policies are usually not at such a level.

 

Of course, there can be an unexpected external event which may change that.

 

[The Cyclist]

7 minutes ago, candide said:

Fact is that it wasn't moderately thriving. The good Q1 2024 was an exception, and the downtrend already started in Q2.

 

Since the 60's the UK annual growth probably averages about 2 - 2.5 %

 

With the exception of 2009 and 2020 where it plunged and a couple of years where it exceeded 2 -2.5%.

 

Most years Q1 & 2 growth is good and tails off. The difference in 2025 is that there will be no strong Q1 & 2 GDP growth, if any.

 

When the tax changes kick in, in April, all bets are off.

 

 

[The Cyclist]

17 minutes ago, Will B Good said:

 

• 2016–2020: Brexit.

• 2021–2024: COVID-19 pandemic, Ukraine war.

 

So not Brexit

 

Nope 

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/306720/cpi-rate-forecast-uk/

 

Fairly stable and reached a high of about 2.4% between 2016 - 20, despite Brexit.

 

High inflation 2022 - 23 caused by Covid / Ukraine.

[soalbundy]

23 hours ago, bangadang said:

UK is down the toilet and thank God I moved here. The world is, frankly, on the slide just about everywhere.

I can only agree with you, quite frankly it's frightening. I enjoy watching political and economic podcasts about Europe, America and Asia on YouTube. One can dismiss a lot of information on YouTube as exaggerated rubbish, and so it was when I started to read and listen to lectures about the fall of Western civilization, now I'm not so sure it's rubbish, in fact I'm becoming convinced that it's true,

 

There isn't just an economic decline but a moral one as well combined with weak and inept leaders in every major country especially noticeable in the new American administration. The world's economies are no longer being managed by elected politicians but by large corporations, banks, land owners and shareholders. Quick money is the basis for decisions now, not logical paths forward for sustainable industry and commerce, globalization has destroyed local industries and AI will no doubt deliver the 'coup de grace.' The creeping poverty for pensioners, homelessness and rising unemployment coupled with the declining power of FIAT currencies could usher in Victorian like living conditions made worse by by the power of states to gather data on its citizens.

[gearbox]

8 hours ago, Woke to Sounds of Horking said:

Kind of eerie how Ms Reeves and Ms Freeland (Canada, recently resigned Finance Minister) appear to be out of their depth.

 

The finances of both the UK and Canada are turd bowl like at the moment.

 

Coincidence?

From the English speaking countries only the US still has some sort of functioning economy, albeit constantly deteriorating too. UK, Canada, Australia and NZ only depend on housing Ponzi schemes and importation of migrants mainly from India and the rest of the subcontinent.

 

Close to 45% of the world manufacturing is now attributed to only  3 East Asian countries - China, Japan and South Korea, and possibly Vietnam joining too. They are increasingly churning out more and more sophisticated products and enjoying trade surpluses. You can't grow an economy sustainably with delivery drivers, bricklayers and lawyers.

[DonniePeverley]

So what's the solution to get back to 2% growth a year again ?

[Chomper Higgot]

8 hours ago, DonniePeverley said:

So what's the solution to get back to 2% growth a year again ?

Apply the principle of marginal gains and aim at the big numbers first.

 

A free trade agreement with the UK’s nearest neighbour and world’s largest integrated developed market.

 

[superal]

12 hours ago, gearbox said:

From the English speaking countries only the US still has some sort of functioning economy, albeit constantly deteriorating too. UK, Canada, Australia and NZ only depend on housing Ponzi schemes and importation of migrants mainly from India and the rest of the subcontinent.

 

Close to 45% of the world manufacturing is now attributed to only  3 East Asian countries - China, Japan and South Korea, and possibly Vietnam joining too. They are increasingly churning out more and more sophisticated products and enjoying trade surpluses. You can't grow an economy sustainably with delivery drivers, bricklayers and lawyers.

Almost impossible to compete with cheap labour from Asian countries . Trumps plan is to impose tariffs on many imports in order to keep manufacturing within the U.S.A. . Thus driving up local  employment by creating a trade war . 

As you say , many Western countries are allowing immigration of unskilled workers , hoping to boost their economy . Does not work as the majority do not work and become dependent on government benefits . Regarding the UK , the country has been going down the pan for the last 15 years and is now accelerating on a slippery down-slope under the supervision of a pretend government .

1/ Scrap the zero carbon scheme which is estimated to cost 10 billion pounds a year , every year to 2050 . 2/  Scrap the foreign aid budget of 14 billion pounds every year and take care of your own people first . That's the 22 billion pound black hole sorted .

[The Cyclist]

11 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

A free trade agreement with the UK’s nearest neighbour and world’s largest integrated developed market.

 

Which is not possible.

 

This is what happens when the Common Market ( A great idea ) Morphs into a Political and Monetary Union called the EU.

 

I am somewhat astounded, that a person of your own, self declared, superior intellectual capacity is not capable of working that out.

 

A good example of education does not equate to intelligence.

[mokwit]

16 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I’m not trying to make money in the markets on the basis of anything the FT says.

You referenced me in this thread in order to draw me in to give you the attention you crave, then moan when I do comment.

 

You might not like my link to the FT, but it is credible and, just as importantly, verifiable. The same can not be said of every claim made in this discussion.

You were previously telling us how positive Labours economic policy was and how it would be good for the country, and how those who said it would cause economic disaster were wrong, so I assumed you understood it, but now it seems you were parroting Labour party sources.

 

Considering the flack Reeves is getting on this thread I thought you might welcome the opportunity to go through Labours economic policy line by line and show how it couldn't possibly be causing the calamity in the markets we are seeing, Instead of doing that you posted a link to a reporter quoting fund managers giving their view on the causes.

 

So you were positive on Labours policy even though you didn't understand it, and others who were telling you it would cause the calamity we are seeing now were wrong according to you, but rather than defend your position yourself, you posted a link to a source that seems to mention anything but Reeves incompetence as the possible real cause, or even a factor, preferring to focus on concurrent global factors as the cause, rather than disastrous policies.

 

FT ceased to be a credible source a long time ago BTW. It became highly politicised to the point where it is referred to as The Financial Guardian,  and this went into overdrive with the exit of Pearson as a shareholder. I should know, I read it since the '80's. Same with Reuters. I had Reuters news on my desk for decades.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 minute ago, The Cyclist said:

 

Which is not possible.

 

This is what happens when the Common Market ( A great idea ) Morphs into a Political and Monetary Union called the EU.

 

I am somewhat astounded, that a person of your own, self declared, superior intellectual capacity is not capable of working that out.

 

A good example of education does not equate to intelligence.

Don’t be silly it is possible.

 

I’ve never declared ‘superior intellectual capacity’, it’s perhaps something you yourself have recognized.

 

 

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

1 minute ago, mokwit said:

You were previously telling us how positive Labours economic policy was and how it would be good for the country, and how those who said it would cause economic disaster were wrong, so I assumed you understood it, but now it seems you were parroting Labour party sources.

 

Considering the flack Reeves is getting on this thread I thought you might welcome the opportunity to go through Labours economic policy line by line and show how it couldn't possibly be causing the calamity in the markets we are seeing, Instead of doing that you posted a link to a reporter quoting fund managers giving their view on the causes.

 

So you were positive on Labours policy even though you didn't understand it, and others who were telling you it would cause the calamity we are seeing now were wrong according to you, but rather than defend your position yourself, you posted a link to a source that seems to mention anything but Reeves incompetence as the possible real cause, or even a factor, preferring to focus on concurrent global factors as the cause, rather than disastrous policies.

 

FT ceased to be a credible source a long time ago BTW. It became highly politicised to the point where it is referred to as The Financial Guardian,  and this went into overdrive with the exit of Pearson as a shareholder. I should know, I read it since the '80's. Same with Reuters. I had Reuters news on my desk for decades.

Labour’s economic policies have only just started, there’s another budget due in April and many of the autumn budget measures have not yet come into force.

 

And yes I know you don’t like links to newspapers telling you stuff you don’t want to hear.

 

[mokwit]

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I’ve never declared ‘superior intellectual capacity’, it’s perhaps something you yourself have recognized.

You may never have actually formally declared it, but It is quite obvious from you arrogance and sneering disdain for the opinions of others that don't match your own, that like all Lefties you think you are intellectually superior with no evidence to support this.

 

Let's face it, you are incapable of arguing a point and just post links.

[The Cyclist]

6 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I’ve never declared ‘superior intellectual capacity’, it’s perhaps something you yourself have recognized.

 

You were just lying like a knock off Chinese watch when you were regaling me with the top educational establishments that you attended then ?
 

Dont try and flatter yourself. You make the Tottenham Turnip look like a MENSA member.

[mokwit]

8 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

 

You were just lying like a knock off Chinese watch when you were regaling me with the top educational establishments that you attended then ?
 

Dont try and flatter yourself. You make the Tottenham Turnip look like a MENSA member.

Something about this character doesn't add up, as many are noticing.

[The Cyclist]

3 minutes ago, mokwit said:

Something about this character doesn't add up, as many are noticing.

 

Yes, indeed.

[Chomper Higgot]

38 minutes ago, mokwit said:

You may never have actually formally declared it, but It is quite obvious from you arrogance and sneering disdain for the opinions of others that don't match your own, that like all Lefties you think you are intellectually superior with no evidence to support this.

 

Let's face it, you are incapable of arguing a point and just post links.

Again is seems to be something you yourself have recognized, I myself have made no comment on the matter.

 

When I make a claim I tend to back it with links, you do understand how that works?

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

39 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

 

You were just lying like a knock off Chinese watch when you were regaling me with the top educational establishments that you attended then ?
 

Dont try and flatter yourself. You make the Tottenham Turnip look like a MENSA member.

There’s obviously something driving your constant need to try to make me the topic of discussion, please don’t elucidate, despite your musings on the matter of my education I am not qualified to help you.

 

Her’s a hint to help you get back on track?

 

“Rachel Reeves Faces Mounting Pressure Pound falls and Rising Borrowing Costs”

[Chomper Higgot]

38 minutes ago, mokwit said:

Something about this character doesn't add up, as many are noticing.

Perhaps a measure of the character of those doing the ‘noticing’.

 

How about this:

 

“Rachel Reeves Faces Mounting Pressure Pound falls and Rising Borrowing Costs”

[gearbox]

1 hour ago, superal said:

Almost impossible to compete with cheap labour from Asian countries . Trumps plan is to impose tariffs on many imports in order to keep manufacturing within the U.S.A. . Thus driving up local  employment by creating a trade war . 

As you say , many Western countries are allowing immigration of unskilled workers , hoping to boost their economy . Does not work as the majority do not work and become dependent on government benefits . Regarding the UK , the country has been going down the pan for the last 15 years and is now accelerating on a slippery down-slope under the supervision of a pretend government .

1/ Scrap the zero carbon scheme which is estimated to cost 10 billion pounds a year , every year to 2050 . 2/  Scrap the foreign aid budget of 14 billion pounds every year and take care of your own people first . That's the 22 billion pound black hole sorted .

Cheap labour in East Asia....this was the case many years ago. These countries lead in the implementation of robots, China is deploying more than half of the robots in the world in recent years.

 

The reasons for their success is very simple - they study and work harder, and the governments have policies to promote this.

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, gearbox said:

Cheap labour in East Asia....this was the case many years ago. These countries lead in the implementation of robots, China is deploying more than half of the robots in the world in recent years.

 

The reasons for their success is very simple - they study and work harder, and the governments have policies to promote this.

Correct, though add it was an economic choice made by Western Companies to ship production overseas in order to boost profits.

 

However, while the political focus is on immigrant labour, the challenge of the near future is the arrival of GAI.

 

Where cheap foreign labour and robots took blue collar jobs, GAI will take white collar jobs.

 

No amount of tariffs and blaming immigrants is going to avoid the outcome.

 

[The Cyclist]

All hail Rachel from Customer Complaints.

 

She has just struck a deal with China that is worth £600 million over the next 5 years 😀😀😀

 

To put that in context. The UK spends around that figure  a month  on our intrepid channel hoppers.

[Chomper Higgot]

5 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

All hail Rachel from Customer Complaints.

 

She has just struck a deal with China that is worth £600 million over the next 5 years 😀😀😀

 

To put that in context. The UK spends around that figure  a month  on our intrepid channel hoppers.

Marginals gains in practice.

[The Cyclist]

57 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Marginals gains in practice.

 

C'mon professor,, show your workings.

 

How do you turn £120 million a year into a marginal gain, when your debt repayment has just leapt by £1.5 Billion a month ?

[mokwit]

2 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Labour’s economic policies have only just started, there’s another budget due in April

Perhaps this is exactly what the market is scared of and why the risk premium to in invest in Gilts has increased.

 

Who knows best, People who run billions of dollars or Rachel Reeves?

 

I don't have a link, as the above is my own thoughts. You do understand how that works? Perhaps not.

[mokwit]

1 minute ago, The Cyclist said:

 

C'mon professor,, show your workings.

 

How do you turn £120 million a year into a marginal gain, when your debt repayment has just leapt by £1.5 Billion a month ?

He's probably looking for a link to post for this.

[mokwit]

1 hour ago, The Cyclist said:

She has just struck a deal with China that is worth £600 million over the next 5 years

The question is what does China get in return?. China only acts in it's own interest. (Disclosure: I thought of this all by myself so don't have a link to post).

 

I'm sure the Chinese negotiators were no match for someone of Rachel Reeves calibre [sarcasm].

 

I found a link from a "credible" source that details some of the other concerns 🤣

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rachel-reeves-economy-crisis-china-b2677818.html