Is This the Start of the Trump Market Crash?

[JK-Trilly]

The S&P 500 index crossed below its 200-day moving average today, a very bearish situation for the markets, and it's still hovering at that level right now. After testing it during the previous two trading days, with that critical support level holding there at the 200-day MA, it finally broke through it today.
 

This might prove to be a triple bottom forming there at the 200-day MA, which would be a bullish buy signal, and with a chance for the market to reverse back up, but tomorrow’s likely weak February jobs report (unemployment data) could push the S&P 500 even lower.

A sustained drop below the 200-day MA is a sell signal for technical traders as the markets unwind and risk going into free fall. The last breach of this critical support area was over a year ago back in October 2023.

 

Trump might not really get it yet, but all of his self-destruct economic policies that he has launched, which are both inflationary, and causing unemployment to rise, could soon be coined as the “Trump Crash”. A situation that also could tip the economy over into a period of stagflation, which is a situation with high inflation, low growth, and high unemployment, all at the same time. 
 

Strap in Dorothy, cause Kansas is about to go bye-bye. 
 

[CallumWK]

Within 6 months US flags will fly half mast. Wink wink nod nod

[blaze master]

What the hell am I doing drinking in la at 26. 

[LiamB80]

There’s going to be some pain before it gets better. Some very good opportunities at the moment to get in during the dip. The real pain will happen in the Euro markets which will be a bloodbath.

[blaze master]

15 minutes ago, LiamB80 said:

There’s going to be some pain before it gets better. Some very good opportunities at the moment to get in during the dip. The real pain will happen in the Euro markets which will be a bloodbath.

 

Lol he did use those exact words regarding the auto industry. The media however put a much different spin on that comment. 

[Captain Flack]

A trolling meme has been removed.

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, JK-Trilly said:

The S&P 500 index crossed below its 200-day moving average today, a very bearish situation for the markets, and it's still hovering at that level right now. After testing it during the previous two trading days, with that critical support level holding there at the 200-day MA, it finally broke through it today.
 

This might prove to be a triple bottom forming there at the 200-day MA, which would be a bullish buy signal, and with a chance for the market to reverse back up, but tomorrow’s likely weak February jobs report (unemployment data) could push the S&P 500 even lower.

A sustained drop below the 200-day MA is a sell signal for technical traders as the markets unwind and risk going into free fall. The last breach of this critical support area was over a year ago back in October 2023.

 

Trump might not really get it yet, but all of his self-destruct economic policies that he has launched, which are both inflationary, and causing unemployment to rise, could soon be coined as the “Trump Crash”. A situation that also could tip the economy over into a period of stagflation, which is a situation with high inflation, low growth, and high unemployment, all at the same time. 
 

Strap in Dorothy, cause Kansas is about to go bye-bye. 
 

 

The self-destruct economic policies have been going on for years. 

[Hawaiian]

1 hour ago, LiamB80 said:

There’s going to be some pain before it gets better. Some very good opportunities at the moment to get in during the dip. The real pain will happen in the Euro markets which will be a bloodbath.

Look for for much volatility ahead.  Opportunities for sure, but be conservative and not greedy.

[bkk6060]

Yes.  I think it will be very choppy mostly lower for awhile.  But, his ego and legacy are important to him so at some point, he will take action to prop markets up.

In reality though at this point, the S and P is down only about 3% for the year. So, probably more downside coming. 

 

[JK-Trilly]

1 hour ago, bkk6060 said:

Yes.  I think it will be very choppy mostly lower for awhile.  But, his ego and legacy are important to him so at some point, he will take action to prop markets up.

In reality though at this point, the S and P is down only about 3% for the year. So, probably more downside coming. 

 

The S&P is down 6.75% from its high of 6,147 in early February, closing at 5,738 today. That entire decline has happened within the last 30 days, all since Trump took office.

 

The percentage drop itself isn’t massive, considering how much the S&P has risen over the past few years. What is significant, however, is when it falls below its 200-day moving average, which it did today for the first time in 16 months. A 20% drop is technically required to officially enter a bear market, but breaking below the 200-day moving average triggers a sell signal, meaning traders should exit all long positions. Long-term investors can ride it out, but at this stage, nobody should be going long in equities when this sell-off could still have a long way to go.

 

If the market falls much further, then the only way Trump could push the market back up after the damage he’s caused would be by pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates, but that seems unlikely. The Fed won’t be eager to cut in an inflationary environment, and once stagflation sets in, reversing the damage won’t be as simple as flipping a switch.

 

Trump was handed an almost perfect economic situation, inflation hovering around 2% and unemployment at one of its lowest levels in decades, around 4%. All he had to do was just leave it alone. Then he came in like a wrecking ball with his sweeping tariffs and laying off tens of thousands of government workers, and in just 30 days, he’s already inflicted significant damage. If things continue on this trajectory, he could be facing a full-blown economic crisis in a few months, one that he won’t be able to fix just by flip-flopping his position every 24 hours.

 

No president has implemented sweeping tariffs ever since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which was widely recognized as one of the major contributors to the Great Depression which started after the stock market crash in 1929. Every president since then has understood that tariffs don’t fix anything, they only break things in the system. He clearly has no idea what he's doing. Only a fool would start a trade war with its closest trading partners. Canada buys more stuff from the US than the UK, France, China, and Japan combined and the have already started making efforts to stop buying American products as much as possible. China is planning to do the same. 

[bannork]

[JimHuaHin]

4 hours ago, blaze master said:

What the hell am I doing drinking in la at 26. 

Polluted water if you are lucky, urine most likely.

[Celsius]

he is already blaming globalists for the crash

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, JK-Trilly said:

The S&P is down 6.75% from its high of 6,147 in early February, closing at 5,738 today. That entire decline has happened within the last 30 days, all since Trump took office.

 

The percentage drop itself isn’t massive, considering how much the S&P has risen over the past few years. What is significant, however, is when it falls below its 200-day moving average, which it did today for the first time in 16 months. A 20% drop is technically required to officially enter a bear market, but breaking below the 200-day moving average triggers a sell signal, meaning traders should exit all long positions. Long-term investors can ride it out, but at this stage, nobody should be going long in equities when this sell-off could still have a long way to go.

 

If the market falls much further, then the only way Trump could push the market back up after the damage he’s caused would be by pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates, but that seems unlikely. The Fed won’t be eager to cut in an inflationary environment, and once stagflation sets in, reversing the damage won’t be as simple as flipping a switch.

 

Trump was handed an almost perfect economic situation, inflation hovering around 2% and unemployment at one of its lowest levels in decades, around 4%. All he had to do was just leave it alone. Then he came in like a wrecking ball with his sweeping tariffs and laying off tens of thousands of government workers, and in just 30 days, he’s already inflicted significant damage. If things continue on this trajectory, he could be facing a full-blown economic crisis in a few months, one that he won’t be able to fix just by flip-flopping his position every 24 hours.

 

No president has implemented sweeping tariffs ever since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which was widely recognized as one of the major contributors to the Great Depression which started after the stock market crash in 1929. Every president since then has understood that tariffs don’t fix anything, they only break things in the system. He clearly has no idea what he's doing. Only a fool would start a trade war with its closest trading partners. Canada buys more stuff from the US than the UK, France, China, and Japan combined and the have already started making efforts to stop buying American products as much as possible. China is planning to do the same. 

 

Like nearly everyone else, you fail to mention the enormous debt problems.

[JAG]

8 hours ago, CallumWK said:

Within 6 months US flags will fly half mast. Wink wink nod nod

Well certainly if he insists on standing on a pile of paper clutching a can of petrol and a "burning brand"!

[Antti]

We haven't had a prolonged bear market since Fed started doing QE in 2008. It has kept bond rates low and injected liquidity to the system. Perhaps this time could be different if the orange doofus continues with the tariff shenanigans and inflation shoots up. That would limit Fed's wiggle room significantly. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. A proper old school bear market would be an absolute shock for newer investors.

[EVENKEEL]

We should have seen the downturn coming. I made a sizable withdrawal from my 401k beginning of 2025 for vacations and such.

 

A good time to invest as stocks go down.

[Walker88]

As Winston Churchill said, "It's not the beginning of the end; it's not even the end of the beginning".

 

There are significant historical peaks in markets that become part of history. December 2024 may well prove to be one.

 

For all you dip buyers, go ahead and bet your life on a rebound. The clown in the White House has an uncanny ability to destroy everything. His tariff talk is not some 3-D chess; it's making foreign nations ignore him until he finally makes up his mind, and the equity market is reacting as it usually does to uncertainty.

 

Stagflation is coming, because his policies will not only crush growth but cause significant price rises. His silly lie about 'auto plants being built' (because of tariffs) is absurd, except to the dumb MAGAs who think one can design an entire auto plant in a day and break ground on construction. His tax cuts will juice the yearly deficit by $900 billion, and matched against DOGE's measly savings of $2.7 billion (per the Wall Street Journal) are going to present a problem for the Fed in terms of controlling rates. Foreigners, who own 30% of US debt, remember the President's comment about defaulting on foreign-owned debt if needed. If they go on a buyer's strike, rates will soar to >10%, which would make the equity market overvalued by about 70%.

 

After the market peak in 1929, it took until 1954 for the averages to reach the 1929 level, and that was only because indices replaced bankrupt companies. The Nikkei peaked at 38,915.87 on 28 December 1989, and did not hit that level again until 2024---and that after tumbling all the way to 7000.

 

Many of the folks claiming there's a "buying opportunity" coming are unlikely to live long enough to see gains, if history of market peaks is any guide. Better they buy MAGA merchandise to toss in the box with them when they pass on.

 

The consensus is that this recent fall is a blip, and the up trend will soon continue. The consensus is usually dead wrong. Also, after the kind of rout the market has seen in the last two months (especially stocks like Tesla), there tends to be a lot more fear. I don't see any fear, which suggests everybody who wants to be in the market is already in. That is not good.

 

Markets do not announce tops. Real tops come when the majority is convinced it's just a blip. That consensus view could be the harbinger of a total rout, and we'll look back and say "we should have seen it".

 

 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, Walker88 said:

As Winston Churchill said, "It's not the beginning of the end; it's not even the end of the beginning".

 

There are significant historical peaks in markets that become part of history. December 2024 may well prove to be one.

 

For all you dip buyers, go ahead and bet your life on a rebound. The clown in the White House has an uncanny ability to destroy everything. His tariff talk is not some 3-D chess; it's making foreign nations ignore him until he finally makes up his mind, and the equity market is reacting as it usually does to uncertainty.

 

Stagflation is coming, because his policies will not only crush growth but cause significant price rises. His silly lie about 'auto plants being built' (because of tariffs) is absurd, except to the dumb MAGAs who think one can design an entire auto plant in a day and break ground on construction. His tax cuts will juice the yearly deficit by $900 billion, and matched against DOGE's measly savings of $2.7 billion (per the Wall Street Journal) are going to present a problem for the Fed in terms of controlling rates. Foreigners, who own 30% of US debt, remember the President's comment about defaulting on foreign-owned debt if needed. If they go on a buyer's strike, rates will soar to >10%, which would make the equity market overvalued by about 70%.

 

After the market peak in 1929, it took until 1954 for the averages to reach the 1929 level, and that was only because indices replaced bankrupt companies. The Nikkei peaked at 38,915.87 on 28 December 1989, and did not hit that level again until 2024---and that after tumbling all the way to 7000.

 

Many of the folks claiming there's a "buying opportunity" coming are unlikely to live long enough to see gains, if history of market peaks is any guide. Better they buy MAGA merchandise to toss in the box with them when they pass on.

 

The consensus is that this recent fall is a blip, and the up trend will soon continue. The consensus is usually dead wrong. Also, after the kind of rout the market has seen in the last two months (especially stocks like Tesla), there tends to be a lot more fear. I don't see any fear, which suggests everybody who wants to be in the market is already in. That is not good.

 

Markets do not announce tops. Real tops come when the majority is convinced it's just a blip. That consensus view could be the harbinger of a total rout, and we'll look back and say "we should have seen it".

 

 

 

The anticipated blame Trump for everything message has arrived from the expected source.

 

Stagflation and a market crash in the US have been warned of for years. Example linked:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-fed-inflation-recession-rate-hikes-policy-put-2022-12

 

The US gov debt continued to rise, even after the Covid panic passed. Total US debt is not reflected in this 36T number as unfunded liabilities like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security are not included. The total is much higher. Other private debt classes, also in the trillions, are not discussed either.   

 

Of course most of the Democrat leaning publications have finally  started to make noise after Trump got elected and act as if this all his doing. What a shock - not.

 

 

[Lacessit]

The Fed is not going to cut interest rates. It will probably raise them in response to the inflation crisis that is going to be occurring with tariffs, and deportation of cheap labor.

 

There are very few people who invest in the share market that do not understand low interest rates are an incentive to buy shares, as dividends get better than bank interest rates. Conversely, when dividends are less than bank interest, it is safer to be cashed-up, and stay out of the stockmarket.

 

Of course, the situation is much worse when investors are hoping for capital growth, rather than dividend income. Which is why Tesla shares tank if there is a downturn in sales.

 

The ancient Greeks said Hubris is always followed by Nemesis. Strap yourselves in. Buy gold.

 

 

[Harrisfan]

9 hours ago, JK-Trilly said:

Trump was handed an almost perfect economic situation, inflation hovering around 2% and unemployment at one of its lowest levels in decades, around 4%.

Not true at all. Biden had 3 to 10% inflation. Worst debt ever.

 

No surplus since Clinton. Unemployment was 3.5% before.

[Harrisfan]

3 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

The Fed is not going to cut interest rates. It will probably raise them in response to the inflation crisis that is going to be occurring with tariffs, and deportation of cheap labor.

 

There are very few people who invest in the share market that do not understand low interest rates are an incentive to buy shares, as dividends get better than bank interest rates. Conversely, when dividends are less than bank interest, it is safer to be cashed-up, and stay out of the stockmarket.

 

Of course, the situation is much worse when investors are hoping for capital growth, rather than dividend income. Which is why Tesla shares tank if there is a downturn in sales.

 

The ancient Greeks said Hubris is always followed by Nemesis. Strap yourselves in. Buy gold.

 

 

There is no inflation crisis. That ended with Biden, the worst since Carter.

[Harrisfan]

7 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

ancient Greeks said Hubris is always followed by Nemesis. Strap yourselves in. Buy gold.

Why would people buy gold? It's overpriced and pays no return. The time to buy gold was 20 years ago.

[Lacessit]

21 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

There is no inflation crisis. That ended with Biden, the worst since Carter.

Bought eggs lately?

[Harrisfan]

Just now, Lacessit said:

Bought eggs lately?

110 baht I saw today.

[placeholder]

8 hours ago, nauseus said:

 

Like nearly everyone else, you fail to mention the enormous debt problems.

Which you believe his proposed tax cuts will make better?

[nauseus]

8 hours ago, nauseus said:

 

Like nearly everyone else, you fail to mention the enormous debt problems.

 

Ah! The Three Amigos! Wonder if you'll still be laughing next Christmas?

[Lacessit]

18 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Why would people buy gold? It's overpriced and pays no return. The time to buy gold was 20 years ago.

I have never lost money buying and selling gold.

 

Maybe that makes me smarter than your 135 IQ. Or is it 137 -143?

[Lacessit]

1 minute ago, Harrisfan said:

110 baht I saw today.

In the USA.

[Harrisfan]

Just now, Lacessit said:

I have never lost money buying and selling gold.

 

Maybe that makes me smarter than your 135 IQ. Or is it 137 -143?

Gold has had a 25 year bull run. Why do you think that's going to continue?