Nobody will trust a US treaty again,’ and Japan’s yen is now the new safe haven currency

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, uncletiger said:

The one truth in the original post is that NATO is dead.  And that's a good thing. Other than that it's nonsense. Nobody is buying the Yen out of fear.

 

So what is the new safe haven currency? Buy Bitcoin.

Bitcoin, an imaginary currency backed by nothing but BS.

The sheeple love it though, till they won't.

[hotsun]

12 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Bitcoin, an imaginary currency backed by nothing but BS.

The sheeple love it though, till they won't.

The sheeple are the ones with no bitcoin, watching their savings eroded by inflation.

 

old folk dont need to pay attention, but are fools to give that advice to their children

[gargamon]

11 minutes ago, hotsun said:

The sheeple are the ones with no bitcoin, watching their savings eroded by inflation.

 

old folk dont need to pay attention, but are fools to give that advice to their children

Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. Only fools and members of the Cult of the Orange Buffoon think it's a good thing.

[hotsun]

2 minutes ago, gargamon said:

Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. Only fools and members of the Cult of the Orange Buffoon think it's a good thing.

Youve been wrong with all youve said so far. Dont know how you think you still have dignity left for your opinions

[JAG]

19 hours ago, Yagoda said:

The truth of the matters cited is best demonstrated by the reputation and nationality of the posters pushing just another Trump diatribe.

 

Getting nervous about the spigots being turned off? Scared  to grow a pair and face Vlad by yourselves?

 

Wonder how the businesses in Mannheim are going to feel when that last plane takes off.

Exactly as the businesses in all the other one time garrison towns throughout what was once West Germany felt. They will shrug and get on with things. The "girlie bars" and dodgy second hand car lots will take a hit, but everyone else will cope.

[Yagoda]

5 minutes ago, JAG said:

Exactly as the businesses in all the other one time garrison towns throughout what was once West Germany felt. They will shrug and get on with things. The "girlie bars" and dodgy second hand car lots will take a hit, but everyone else will cope.

https://www.bicc.de/Publikationen//report4.pdf

https://edoc.hu-berlin.de/server/api/core/bitstreams/eba001c1-09da-4398-8090-bd3ab1118e2d/content

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/56631/1/688143342.pdf

 

Im to lazy to update my research. Tell the folks working in the Dry Cleaners to get a new job. 

 

Dude, are you guys trying to make yourselves feel better? You guys sound like the toddler reciting over and over "there arent any monsters under the bed" like a protective mantra. Hey the USA is leaving you defenseless and broke, naw we will be OK, we will be OK, we will be OK, its nothing, we dont need you, we will be OK.

 

OK then. You get no argument from me. You will be OK. Say bye to us. We will send you a bill.

[Harrisfan]

Yen was oversold. Just normal buying.

[Harrisfan]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Bitcoin, an imaginary currency backed by nothing but BS.

The sheeple love it though, till they won't.

All true

But 0.1c to 100,000 is incredible

[JAG]

3 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Im to lazy to update my research. Tell the folks working in the Dry Cleaners to get a new job. 

Thinking back to my years in West Germany, the only things I ever had dry cleaned was my No2 dress ( brown drinking suit with the brass buttons) and my mess kit - so 6 visits a year? Combat Kit was laundered by the system, and normal working dress was done in a washing machine.

 

Anyway truth be told the garrisons had very little to do with the local economy, The British and Dutch did the bulk of their shopping in their respective NAAFIs, the Americans in their PX. The Dutch, Belgians and French had very little money to spend as they were conscripts. The Americans were payed in Dollars, and their sprawling bases were renowned for having every US "shopping facility" one could need "on base".

 

The US bases in Europe have not existed to defend Europe for decades; rather they, and the couple of airbases in the UK, exist as logistical establishments, forward bases and medical facilities to support their (the US's) various foreign interventions in the Near and Middle East. Back in the "Cold War" when fighting troops were maintained in West Germany a significant part of the costs were met by the. West German government. Complaints about our presence were usually settled by the argument " uns oder die Russkis"!

[Yagoda]

11 minutes ago, JAG said:

Thinking back to my years in West Germany, the only things I ever had dry cleaned was my No2 dress ( brown drinking suit with the brass buttons) and my mess kit - so 6 visits a year? Combat Kit was laundered by the system, and normal working dress was done in a washing machine.

 

Anyway truth be told the garrisons had very little to do with the local economy, The British and Dutch did the bulk of their shopping in their respective NAAFIs, the Americans in their PX. The Dutch, Belgians and French had very little money to spend as they were conscripts. The Americans were payed in Dollars, and their sprawling bases were renowned for having every US "shopping facility" one could need "on base".

 

The US bases in Europe have not existed to defend Europe for decades; rather they, and the couple of airbases in the UK, exist as logistical establishments, forward bases and medical facilities to support their (the US's) various foreign interventions in the Near and Middle East. Back in the "Cold War" when fighting troops were maintained in West Germany a significant part of the costs were met by the. West German government. Complaints about our presence were usually settled by the argument " uns oder die Russkis"!

Thats fine, they will be OK. They dont need our money or guns. No problem.

[transam]

2 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Thats fine, they will be OK. They dont need our money or guns. No problem.

"Our money"..................😂

[Yagoda]

13 minutes ago, transam said:

"Our money"..................😂

Foreign concept to you? Working and paying taxes?

 

Or you dont care how your government spends?

 

People that live off of others usually dont. How bout it?

[transam]

33 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Foreign concept to you? Working and paying taxes?

 

Or you dont care how your government spends?

 

People that live off of others usually dont. How bout it?

How about what........?   🤔

 

I thought you lived in a commy country, yet you post "us" & "we" all the time regarding the USA.

 

[Woke to Sounds]

I hold a fat reserve of US dollars, the world's best and most dependable currency.

 

Only suckers would cash out now.

 

All other currencies are just Monopoly money.

 

 

[hotsun]

1 hour ago, Harrisfan said:

All true

But 0.1c to 100,000 is incredible

1,000,000 is inevitable. People speak about it having not done one minute of research

[Woke to Sounds]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Unhappily, robot factories won't need American labour either, so expect social upheaval, and if no one is working, who is going to buy the stuff made in those human devoid factories?

All optics as the Big Boys turn the dial to boil a little higher.

 

You will own nothing and be happy.

 

You will have 3000 social credits for the month. Can't save em up. Resets at the first of the month.

 

Lunch special today is bagel sandwich with crickets and mealworms.

[Patong2021]

20 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

Leaving the preposterous nature of your thought-experiment to one side, as if the world would ever stop transacting with the US, one of the most important export markets in the world, you are delusional if you think the US is dependent on Canada in any way shape or form.

 

The US does not have the capacity to replace Canadian lumber? You must be dreaming. Germany can replace Russian oil with Norwegian and Canadian oil but the US cannot do likewise? How odd. Speaking of Russia, perhaps the US could buy some cheaper Russian lumber, after all there is already talk of reviving Nord Stream 2 with American backing.

 

Same with Aluminium, why can the US not replace it and get it elsewhere? Nor does the US depend on Canadian fertilizer, that is all fantasy.

 

But thanks for confirming that exports represent 11% only of the US GDP. That leaves only 24 trillion then. How will the US survive on this paltry sum? Hahahaha. Dependent on Canadian fertilizer, thanks for the laughs Patong.

 

 

The USA is not dependent on Canada, but its wealth and  high standard of living is.

It is Canada that provides the cheap raw materials and resources that the USA transforms into higher value products.

Yes, the USA has a capacity to replace Canadian lumber, but at what cost? There are not enough sawmills in the USA or sufficient skilled labour to operate those mills and to transport the lumber. The lumber would have to come from protected  environmentally  fragile ecosystems. The  forests were protected for a good reason as they were needed to  control erosion, fire and water /air quality. You ignore the fact that there is a big difference between  lumber used for the construction industry and what is in US forests. The excess softwood lumber the US would need are highly suceptible to pests and fire. It is one of the reasons why forest fires are so prevalent in clear cut replant areas. The pulp and paper companies replant with the  highly flammable varieties, not with the  appropriate fire resistant trees, which are less valuable for cheap US type construction.

 

Aluminum is a world market and much of it is already spoken for with local demand taking up much of the production. Your position is illogical. Trump says he wants to make  the USA more  independent, well, the alternatives to Canada are China, Russia and India. How is relying on those producers  n the USA's interest? It certainly won't be less expensive in the long run.

 

Yes, the USA is producing lots of oil and gas now.   Oil pipelines do not appear overnight. They take years to build. The oil pipelines do not run east to west. They run north to south for good reason.  You can't build east west pipelines in many regions because of the geography and the population. The US oil companies  built their refineries in the midwest because of the billions of $$ the import of cheap Canadian oil made them.

 

Yes,  the USA can get its potash from  Russia, Belarus  and China. Another brilliant strategy to  make the USA more independent. And yes, the USA agricultural sector relies on low cost Canadian potash. 80% of it comes from Canada. Try replacing that  with the lower quality contaminated Russian potash. Add the shipping costs from Russia. It is  far more cost effective to load a train car with potash and send it  down south than to  ship it via train and cargo ship with loading and unloading through multiple ports.  Ask a US corn farmer  how  they would manage without Canadian potash. The answer is that there would be reduced corn production. Reduced corn production reduces pork and cattle feed. Reduced pork and cattle production would not bode well for  Americans.

 

There is a reason  why the stock market is  tanking now. 

[Patong2021]

1 hour ago, Woke to Sounds said:

I hold a fat reserve of US dollars, the world's best and most dependable currency.

Only suckers would cash out now.

All other currencies are just Monopoly money.

 

What goes up, does come down. Mr. Trump is  going to deliver one heck of an economic recession. It will be the countries  rich in critical commodities like energy sources, potable water, mineral wealth and  stable climate who will prosper.  

[Cameroni]

13 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 

The USA is not dependent on Canada, but its wealth and  high standard of living is.

It is Canada that provides the cheap raw materials and resources that the USA transforms into higher value products.

Yes, the USA has a capacity to replace Canadian lumber, but at what cost? There are not enough sawmills in the USA or sufficient skilled labour to operate those mills and to transport the lumber. The lumber would have to come from protected  environmentally  fragile ecosystems. The  forests were protected for a good reason as they were needed to  control erosion, fire and water /air quality. You ignore the fact that there is a big difference between  lumber used for the construction industry and what is in US forests. The excess softwood lumber the US would need are highly suceptible to pests and fire. It is one of the reasons why forest fires are so prevalent in clear cut replant areas. The pulp and paper companies replant with the  highly flammable varieties, not with the  appropriate fire resistant trees, which are less valuable for cheap US type construction.

 

Aluminum is a world market and much of it is already spoken for with local demand taking up much of the production. Your position is illogical. Trump says he wants to make  the USA more  independent, well, the alternatives to Canada are China, Russia and India. How is relying on those producers  n the USA's interest? It certainly won't be less expensive in the long run.

 

Yes, the USA is producing lots of oil and gas now.   Oil pipelines do not appear overnight. They take years to build. The oil pipelines do not run east to west. They run north to south for good reason.  You can't build east west pipelines in many regions because of the geography and the population. The US oil companies  built their refineries in the midwest because of the billions of $$ the import of cheap Canadian oil made them.

 

Yes,  the USA can get its potash from  Russia, Belarus  and China. Another brilliant strategy to  make the USA more independent. And yes, the USA agricultural sector relies on low cost Canadian potash. 80% of it comes from Canada. Try replacing that  with the lower quality contaminated Russian potash. Add the shipping costs from Russia. It is  far more cost effective to load a train car with potash and send it  down south than to  ship it via train and cargo ship with loading and unloading through multiple ports.  Ask a US corn farmer  how  they would manage without Canadian potash. The answer is that there would be reduced corn production. Reduced corn production reduces pork and cattle feed. Reduced pork and cattle production would not bode well for  Americans.

 

There is a reason  why the stock market is  tanking now. 

 

The USA does not depend on Canada in the slightest. All that Canada offers can be bought elsewhere. As you say it is a MARKET and whilst yes, of course, procuring it elsewhere will be more expensive what you fail to do is to weigh that up against the gains that tariffs will produce, namely making people buy a greater share of US made products because they are cheaper, securing US jobs, creating US jobs.  So what Trump is doing is he is weighing up the cost of procuring these materials elsewhere against the benefit of protecting US companies and the money the US tariffs will bring. And money they will bring, because Canada, Mexico, China will NOT stop doing business with the US, the US is far too valuabel a market, they will continue to do so even if the price is higher. Trump knows this.

 

The stock market sell off is nothing unusual, there is always going to be periods like this, which are inevitably followed by periods of high performance. And if some overvalued companies go bankrupt, it is fine, the US population is not the SP500, it is more than that. Again Trump knows this.

[Patong2021]

20 hours ago, realfunster said:

 

That's life - history shows you don't need an army until you do and if you are not ready, you are screwed.

In the last week alone both the UK and now Germany have committed to increase military spending.

I don't think Europe should be over-relying on US to ride in and save the day (again). Robust European militaries strengthen both the individual countries and the whole NATO group.

 

 

The reverse is also true, China is highly dependent on exports to the US consumer market. 

China is 15% of all US imports. US is 16% of all Chinese exports but makes up around 46% of their overall trade surplus. (USD 404bn/USD 877bn - WITs/Worldbank)

Whilst the US consumer will notice impacts on product choice and availability, a trade war means large swathes of Chinese losing jobs and potential civil unrest.

I am not convinced that China wins a blinking contest on that one.

 

 

Yes, but the Chinese as a nation are more able to sustain economic hardship.  No one comes out to riot and burn down buildings in quite the way westerners do. The Chinese are adaptable and quick to pivot. That is what they have done in the developing markets of Latin America and Africa. 

It is not about China winning, because no one wins in a trade war. Rather it is about who will be least damaged and most like to bounce back faster.  It's about motivation. A large part of the US population  is not in agreement with Trump, his satanic henchman Musk, and his chaos strategy. As a result, it will be hard to maintain national cohesion in the event of hardship. The USA has initiated a policy of isolation and having no friends  does not serve anyone well, just look at the old farts who roam aimlessly in Patong, Pattaya and elsewhere to understand that.

[camper star]

On 3/10/2025 at 2:15 PM, Cameroni said:

 

David Roche is Irish and of course the Irish love to make up stories. 

 

The Japanese Yen has no more replaced the US Dollar as a safe haven currency than Canadian bacon. In fact the Japanese Yen has been FALLING against the US dollar for a very long time.

'

I can only imagine David Roche was joking. Or else he's lost his mind.

Yes so true, from 160 now down to about 148. A big decrease for me here in Japan. Also, it affects tourism since many places now have a double pricing system here. I don't think it will last very long with the yen might drop under 100 yen per dollar. I think it was under Obama's term. Have to check on it, but I remember it back in 2019 at 99 yen. 

[jas007]

On 3/10/2025 at 12:02 PM, placeholder said:

• Quantum Strategy’s David Roche said “NATO is dead” as the US distances itself from European allies and warms up to Russia. That makes Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping the big winners and the US the “big loser,” he added, with Japan’s yen displacing the dollar as the world’s safe haven currency.

An American promise is looking more doubtful as the US upends traditional geopolitics, with repercussions in global financial markets, according to Quantum Strategy’s David Roche.

https://fortune.com/2025/03/09/us-treaty-nato-ukraine-russia-trump-japan-yen-safe-haven-dedollarization/

 

There's also the fact that Trump is violating a trade agreement, the USMCA, the impetus for which he himself initiated and then signed onto.

Well, NATO is surely dead at this point.  As for Japan and the Japanese Yen? You can't be serious. To be sure, Japan has been willing to produce an unending river of a failing fiat currency, and in quantities that have been unrivaled.  And for that, the currency continues to weaken.  Fortunately, a worthless Fiat currency is hardly the answer the world needs right now.  But it's totally understandable why the Globalists might think so. They want everyone to believe in the Big Lie.  

 

As for Trump and the world's distrust of any treaty the US might enter into? Of course. Trump is a realist and was elected to make America Great Again.  He's following through with that promise.  If that means abrogating treaties and rearranging the geopolitical world, then so be it. 

[Cameroni]

21 minutes ago, camper star said:

Yes so true, from 160 now down to about 148. A big decrease for me here in Japan. Also, it affects tourism since many places now have a double pricing system here. I don't think it will last very long with the yen might drop under 100 yen per dollar. I think it was under Obama's term. Have to check on it, but I remember it back in 2019 at 99 yen. 

 

I remember trading the UJ and it was in the 138 range, the UJ has a lot of room to fall, but then the USD Index also fell a lot and thus room to go up, so this is a very interesting constellation and what makes trading FOREX so fascinating.

[Patong2021]

 

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

 

The USA does not depend on Canada in the slightest. All that Canada offers can be bought elsewhere. As you say it is a MARKET and whilst yes, of course, procuring it elsewhere will be more expensive what you fail to do is to weigh that up against the gains that tariffs will produce, namely making people buy a greater share of US made products because they are cheaper, securing US jobs, creating US jobs.  So what Trump is doing is he is weighing up the cost of procuring these materials elsewhere against the benefit of protecting US companies and the money the US tariffs will bring. And money they will bring, because Canada, Mexico, China will NOT stop doing business with the US, the US is far too valuabel a market, they will continue to do so even if the price is higher. Trump knows this.

 

The stock market sell off is nothing unusual, there is always going to be periods like this, which are inevitably followed by periods of high performance. And if some overvalued companies go bankrupt, it is fine, the US population is not the SP500, it is more than that. Again Trump knows this.

 

You really do not know the US economy  and are instead spitting out empty talking points.

Most Canadian exports are inputs used by American businesses in their own production – more so than with other trading partners. In plain language, the US takes the low cost  inputs to make higher value outputs. This delivers a  profit. If the USA has to replace those inputs with more expensive  alternatives, the profits will decrease and/or the costs to consumers will increase.

Therefore, disproportionate share of the negative tariff impacts on imports from Canada would be through the channel of business supply chains and productivity that would drive higher costs and inflationary pressures at the retail level.

 

The USA has initiated a worldwide  decoupling of everyone's economy from the USA. The impact won't be seen immediately, but it will be a shift with time as the rest of the world looks to transact with anyone other than the USA.

 

You ignore the fact that the US domestic economy is mostly service based. You can't eat mortgages, and you can't build a shelter from serving processed. junk food at a Denny's.  Service based economies do not create long term wealth for the population. The operators of the service firms gain, but not the nation. There is no intellectual capital creation. Only industry and technological innovation  builds long term wealth. The USA is slashing R&D and  eliminating government supported R&D. Other nations are doing the exact opposite. 

 

[Cameroni]

19 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 

 

You really do not know the US economy  and are instead spitting out empty talking points.

Most Canadian exports are inputs used by American businesses in their own production – more so than with other trading partners. In plain language, the US takes the low cost  inputs to make higher value outputs. This delivers a  profit. If the USA has to replace those inputs with more expensive  alternatives, the profits will decrease and/or the costs to consumers will increase.

Therefore, disproportionate share of the negative tariff impacts on imports from Canada would be through the channel of business supply chains and productivity that would drive higher costs and inflationary pressures at the retail level.

 

The USA has initiated a worldwide  decoupling of everyone's economy from the USA. The impact won't be seen immediately, but it will be a shift with time as the rest of the world looks to transact with anyone other than the USA.

 

You ignore the fact that the US domestic economy is mostly service based. You can't eat mortgages, and you can't build a shelter from serving processed. junk food at a Denny's.  Service based economies do not create long term wealth for the population. The operators of the service firms gain, but not the nation. There is no intellectual capital creation. Only industry and technological innovation  builds long term wealth. The USA is slashing R&D and  eliminating government supported R&D. Other nations are doing the exact opposite. 

 

 

You live in an economics fantasy world, where countries would transact "with anyone other than the USA". In reality Canada, Mexico and China would give their right arm to do business with the USA. Why do you think the leaders of Mexico and Canada call Trump and tell him they are now beefing up immigration controls? Because they are DESPERATE to do business with the USA. Why? Because they are not guided by their dislike of Orange Man, like  you, they are guided by one thing only: profit. And the USA just happens to be the most desirable, richest and profitable domestic market worth 27 TRILLION USD.

 

So what you predict, countries ceasing to do business with the USA, it will never happen.

 

As for raw materials, we've already talked about this, the world is a market place and the US can easily replace Canadian lumber, potash etc. Yes it may cost more, but in the long term you have to weigh up this cost with the benefit of US consumers buying US products instead of foreign ones, ie retaining US jobs and creating US jobs. This is more important than the profits of large corporations.

 

Service sector economies do not create long term wealth? Again, you live in economics fantasy world, how do you explain the 27 TRILLION GDP of the US, where most is produced by the service sector. You're just wrong on literally every point you make.

[uncletiger]

12 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Bitcoin, an imaginary currency backed by nothing but BS.

The sheeple love it though, till they won't.

 

Every currency is backed by nothing other than a belief that it is worth something. That's hardly an argument. At least Bitcoin is absolutely limited in supply and not controlled by a government. That's what makes it valuable.

[daveAustin]

On 3/10/2025 at 12:30 PM, BKKKevin said:

Basically we have a reaction to USExit...

Brexit on steroids... As it includes most of our traditional allies along with China...

 

Curious to hear from a few Brits...

How is the whole Brexit thing going?... 

Any Greatness to report?... 

Gawd 😴

Nothing to do with greatness (dear me), all about self-will and not wanting some non-elected foreigner making policy. How would you feel about some random country that doesn't speak your language making up your rules?

 

Agree with the op, the US is untrustworthy and is losing friends faster than most of you are losing hair.

[blaze master]

On 3/10/2025 at 2:54 AM, Cameroni said:

 

Well done for maintaining your record of getting EVERY SINGLE post completely wrong.

 

In fact the US economy has the strongest domestic market in the entire world. If the whole world stopped selling to the US or buying US products the US economy would continue very strong, obviously affected but still very much intact. Whereas the rest of the world would suffer terribly without the economic engine that is the USA.

 

See, the US is NOT an export dependent economy the way Japan or Germany are. It has its own very strong domestic market.

 

Japan will be a powerhouse in the coming decades with its hyper aging population and culture losing birth rate. 

[camper star]

3 minutes ago, blaze master said:

 

Japan will be a powerhouse in the coming decades with its hyper aging population and culture losing birth rate. 

Of course, you are joking. There is a very severe shortage of manpower all ready here. At one shift where I work, about 90% are non-Japanese. 

[blaze master]

2 minutes ago, camper star said:

Of course, you are joking. There is a very severe shortage of manpower all ready here. At one shift where I work, about 90% are non-Japanese. 

 

Of course I am. Like this joke of a thread Japan is in serious trouble in the coming years never mind a safe haven. Which may be the case in the extreme short term. But let's be real Japan is no safe haven.