US Social Security

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27 minutes ago, jas007 said:

 

 

In a worst case scenario, the US dollar may well have another five years or so as the world's reserve currency.  It's in need around the world for various reasons, and isn't going to just disappear overnight.  Use that five years wisely, if you can.  It may be your only hope to get out of this mess in one piece. 

We've been hearing these predictions since, well probably since 1913. Give it a rest. If the dollar does lose its preserved status, it will be because the United States can no longer be trusted to honor its commitments thanks to a guy who's made a career out of breaking contracts and avoiding paying his debts. 

[Stiddle Mump]

It all sounds so complicated. The lads and lasses in charge want it to seem that way.

 

In reality; running a country is little different to running a small farm.

[jas007]

15 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I noticed that you use the word magic about Trump's tax cuts. Since the situation is so grave why do you support taking a huge chance on tariffs when overwhelmingly economists Believe it's only going to make the problem worse not better what we got all better hope is that the tax cuts are allowed to die and no new ones instituted. Better yet, also undo the tax cuts that favored the wealthy and aren't due to expire.

 

I use the work magic because I think people should take the supposed benefits of tariffs with a grain of salt.  On the other hand, the alternative is a recipe for disaster, sooner, rather than later.  Have you done the math not he sustainability of an ever increasing federal debt in the face of rising interest rates? 

 

As for economists and their overwhelming beliefs?  The vast majority of those people are Keynesian, correct? In other words, their mentality is suspect.  It's those same people and that same thought process that got the country into the mess it's in.  Anyway, their game isn't the only game in town.  Ever hear of Austrian economics?  Or the Chicago School and Milton Friedman? It has all evolved, for sure, but the last people you want to listen to right now is a Keynesian economist. 

[Presnock]

17 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I noticed that you use the word magic about Trump's tax cuts. Since the situation is so grave why do you support taking a huge chance on tariffs when overwhelmingly economists Believe it's only going to make the problem worse not better what we got all better hope is that the tax cuts are allowed to die and no new ones instituted. Better yet, also undo the tax cuts that favored the wealthy and aren't due to expire.

 

yeah, it looks like the tariffs are really working - countries are now raising tariffs on US goods, boycotts of US products, cancellation of multibillion dollar contracts for US planes, switching to other countries by China and others for grains that our farmers need to sell.  Now, no country will ever believe that the US has their back or would  bail them out.  Meanwhile Trump is talking about making Canada the next US state, then Greenland will belong to the US as will the Panama Canal.   Those steel and aluminum from Canada are going elsewhere, and US won't be able to make airplanes and cars without metals from Canada.  And, why would those billionaires care if Trump's policies drive the US and world into a recession - they have enough money to get through it but how will those living on SS or welfare get through it?  

[jas007]

15 minutes ago, placeholder said:

We've been hearing these predictions since, well probably since 1913. Give it a rest. If the dollar does lose its preserved status, it will be because the United States can no longer be trusted to honor its commitments thanks to a guy who's made a career out of breaking contracts and avoiding paying his debts. 

Not just because of Tump. 

 

Why not blame politicians and the broken political system?  Give the people "bread and circuses."  Distract them while we steal their money.  The Romans tried that, and we know how that turned out.  In the end, it never works.  

 

Currently, inflation is the name of the game.  How much longer will that trick work?  Maybe for a while?  

 

What about BRICS and the alternate currency they plan?  Probably a fantasy for the time being, but don't discount the fact that those countries have real assets to back their currency.  All they lack is depth.  Trillions change hands around the world on a daily basis.  That needs to continue for the system to function, and currently, the only place those transactions can occur is in the USA.  So there's still time.  

 

I don't hold up much hope, long term, but it's worth a shot. 

[placeholder]

9 minutes ago, jas007 said:

I use the work magic because I think people should take the supposed benefits of tariffs with a grain of salt.  On the other hand, the alternative is a recipe for disaster, sooner, rather than later.  Have you done the math not he sustainability of an ever increasing federal debt in the face of rising interest rates? 

 

As for economists and their overwhelming beliefs?  The vast majority of those people are Keynesian, correct? In other words, their mentality is suspect.  It's those same people and that same thought process that got the country into the mess it's in.  Anyway, their game isn't the only game in town.  Ever hear of Austrian economics?  Or the Chicago School and Milton Friedman? It has all evolved, for sure, but the last people you want to listen to right now is a Keynesian economist. 

I know about those schools and if anything they would be less likely to think that tariffs would work than would Keynsians.

[jas007]

7 minutes ago, Presnock said:

yeah, it looks like the tariffs are really working - countries are now raising tariffs on US goods, boycotts of US products, cancellation of multibillion dollar contracts for US planes, switching to other countries by China and others for grains that our farmers need to sell.  Now, no country will ever believe that the US has their back or would  bail them out.  Meanwhile Trump is talking about making Canada the next US state, then Greenland will belong to the US as will the Panama Canal.   Those steel and aluminum from Canada are going elsewhere, and US won't be able to make airplanes and cars without metals from Canada.  And, why would those billionaires care if Trump's policies drive the US and world into a recession - they have enough money to get through it but how will those living on SS or welfare get through it?  

Maybe the tariffs will work and maybe they won't.  Right now, many people around the world are parroting the same line you are. Let's see what happens.  You had better hope Trump succeeds.  Otherwise, you had better hope you have a lot of gold and silver and can protect it from roving bands of gangsters.  It'll be a Mad Max world, for sure. 

[placeholder]

10 minutes ago, Presnock said:

yeah, it looks like the tariffs are really working - countries are now raising tariffs on US goods, boycotts of US products, cancellation of multibillion dollar contracts for US planes, switching to other countries by China and others for grains that our farmers need to sell.  Now, no country will ever believe that the US has their back or would  bail them out.  Meanwhile Trump is talking about making Canada the next US state, then Greenland will belong to the US as will the Panama Canal.   Those steel and aluminum from Canada are going elsewhere, and US won't be able to make airplanes and cars without metals from Canada.  And, why would those billionaires care if Trump's policies drive the US and world into a recession - they have enough money to get through it but how will those living on SS or welfare get through it?  

As far as aluminum goes it's not an all clear that it will come from elsewhere. Canada enjoys huge reserves of cheap hydropower I looked into it not long ago and it's half the price of the lowest price electricity in the United States. And it takes huge amounts of electricity to make aluminum. So there's a good chance America will be getting the same aluminum just paying more for it.

 

[Presnock]

Just now, jas007 said:

Maybe the tariffs will work and maybe they won't.  Right now, many people around the world are parroting the same line you are. Let's see what happens.  You had better hope Trump succeeds.  Otherwise, you had better hope you have a lot of gold and silver and can protect it from roving bands of gangsters.  It'll be a Mad Max world, for sure. 

 

1 minute ago, jas007 said:

Maybe the tariffs will work and maybe they won't.  Right now, many people around the world are parroting the same line you are. Let's see what happens.  You had better hope Trump succeeds.  Otherwise, you had better hope you have a lot of gold and silver and can protect it from roving bands of gangsters.  It'll be a Mad Max world, for sure. 

Yessir!  I am not even close to being any kind of financial/economic analyst so listen to what I have been hearing from many of them.  I also see ten of the largest US cities due to tax shortages have cut their police forces and can't find new policemen - this has resulted in more personal attacks so now those largest cities see hundreds of thousands of citizens fleeing to those states without high taxes.  I also note that like in England nowadays, the younger generations can't find a job that pays enough so that they can afford to buy a house and raise their families as it used to be.  Something has to be better as it can't get much worse. 

[Presnock]

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

As far as aluminum goes it's not an all clear that it will come from elsewhere. Canada enjoys huge reserves of cheap hydropower I looked into it not long ago and it's half the price of the lowest price electricity in the United States. And it takes huge amounts of electricity to make aluminum. So there's a good chance America will be getting the same aluminum just paying more for it.

 

well in other words the tariff won't work and as the analysts are predicting, joe citizen will end up paying for Trump's tariffs.  I don't think there will be too many manufacturers returning to the US anytime soon.  Like the Brits, the new business owners are moving to the middle east where they don't have to pay taxes instead of building a business at home.

[markwhite]

4 hours ago, Autocan said:

Because it's a 70,000,000 voting bloc

 

This seems to take the view that any future elections will be (by any realistic measure) free and fair. Although there are a number of steps between here and there, the possibility exists that future US elections could adopt the Chinese or Russian model.

 

Then voting blocs don't really matter any more.

[bkk6060]

No way he will stop it.  

[placeholder]

26 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Maybe the tariffs will work and maybe they won't.  Right now, many people around the world are parroting the same line you are. Let's see what happens.  You had better hope Trump succeeds.  Otherwise, you had better hope you have a lot of gold and silver and can protect it from roving bands of gangsters.  It'll be a Mad Max world, for sure. 

And maybe I'll toss a coin10 times in a row and maybe each time it will come up heads. It isn't like speak Tower regime haven't been tried before. And they have failed. Trump is fond of mentioning McKinley. What he doesn't mention is that the tariffs imposed by McKinley actually led to high inflation.

 Since you've mentioned magic, maybe what we should try is the Tinkerbell gambit. If we all clap our hands for tariffs, somehow they will work.

[jas007]

37 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I know about those schools and if anything they would be less likely to think that tariffs would work than would Keynsians.

The Austrian school believes in "free trade" and limited government interference, to be sure.  Sounds good in theory, but in Trump's mind, there's not free trade in the world for the USA. Other countries impose tariffs on US goods, and so what works in theory doesn't work too well in practice.  The US is getting a bad deal, on the whole. Trump wants reciprocal tariffs, to level the playing field and, in so doing, take  government interference out of the equation.  

 

Will it work?  I'm not sure, but my best guess is that the alternative is even worse.  So, let's hope Trump succeeds despite all the political opposition.  They're up against a great evil and what they're trying to do my or may not work, but it's worth a shot. 

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, jas007 said:

The Austrian school believes in "free trade" and limited government interference, to be sure.  Sounds good in theory, but in Trump's mind, there's not free trade in the world for the USA. Other countries impose tariffs on US goods, and so what works in theory doesn't work too well in practice.  The US is getting a bad deal, on the whole. Trump wants reciprocal tariffs, to level the playing field and, in so doing, take  government interference out of the equation.  

 

Will it work?  I'm not sure, but my best guess is that the alternative is even worse.  So, let's hope Trump succeeds despite all the political opposition.  They're up against a great evil and what they're trying to do my or may not work, but it's worth a shot. 

Turn off levels are in fact very low apart from a very few small economically insignificant nations. Nothing like the tariffs at Trump is planning to impose.

If the great evil you're referring to is the debt. And why not pray that Trump's tax cut? 

[jas007]

12 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Turn off levels are in fact very low apart from a very few small economically insignificant nations. Nothing like the tariffs at Trump is planning to impose.

If the great evil you're referring to is the debt. And why not pray that Trump's tax cut? 

This discussion could go on all day. 

 

The great evil?  How about a raid on the US Treasury? That was done deliberately, to destroy the USA.  That's another discussion for another day, but it's real and it did happen.  Now, how to fix the mess?   I'm not sure what the current debt clock shows, but I do know that it's mathematically unsustainable.  At a certain interest rate, all bets are off.  You don't want to be anywhere on planet earth when that happens. 

 

 

[Bannoi]

If all else fails you could always go out and shout

 

"DONT YOU KNOW I'M AN AMERICAN"

 

That usually has the desired affect.

[placeholder]

6 minutes ago, jas007 said:

This discussion could go on all day. 

 

The great evil?  How about a raid on the US Treasury? That was done deliberately, to destroy the USA.  That's another discussion for another day, but it's real and it did happen.  Now, how to fix the mess?   I'm not sure what the current debt clock shows, but I do know that it's mathematically unsustainable.  At a certain interest rate, all bets are off.  You don't want to be anywhere on planet earth when that happens. 

 

 

If the great evil is the debt, then why support an approach so unlikely to succeed? A good way to start would be to eliminate all the Trump tax cuts. They had very little effect on the economy. . Better yet, go back and undo the Bush tax cuts. Under Bill Clinton's budgets, there was actually a surplus instead of a deficit fot 2 years running. Then came the Bush tax cuts...

[charmonman]

7 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Good point,

In 1913 how much would a 2 week holiday trip to Thailand cost you?

Or how much for a new EV?

Not sure, but you could take a two week holiday to Thailand in 1913 (not counting the time it took to travel there) and you could buy an EV  in 1913 - they were actually quite common.

[John Drake]

80 percent of the replies to this topic have nothing to do with the subject of the OP.

[charmonman]

38 minutes ago, jas007 said:

The Austrian school believes in "free trade" and limited government interference, to be sure.  Sounds good in theory, but in Trump's mind, there's not free trade in the world for the USA. Other countries impose tariffs on US goods, and so what works in theory doesn't work too well in practice.  The US is getting a bad deal, on the whole. Trump wants reciprocal tariffs, to level the playing field and, in so doing, take  government interference out of the equation.  

 

Will it work?  I'm not sure, but my best guess is that the alternative is even worse.  So, let's hope Trump succeeds despite all the political opposition.  They're up against a great evil and what they're trying to do my or may not work, but it's worth a shot. 

If he’s actually using tariff threats to get other countries to eliminate their tariffs on US goods, why is he picking on Canada which has no tariffs or very low tariffs on US goods under the USMCA agreement that Trump himself negotiated and signed in his first term?

[Callmeishmael]

Getting back to the original topic, Trump cannot and will not get rid of Social Security.  However, Musk's DOGE is already closing SS field offices and firing SS customer service staff.  If they then purge the SS database of a few million questionable accounts the people affected will struggle to get reinstated.  In some cases, they may end up dying (next winter!) before getting their payments started again.  Also, making people people apply in person while closing hundreds of field offices will save billions of dollars for their tax cuts!

[jas007]

29 minutes ago, charmonman said:

If he’s actually using tariff threats to get other countries to eliminate their tariffs on US goods, why is he picking on Canada which has no tariffs or very low tariffs on US goods under the USMCA agreement that Trump himself negotiated and signed in his first term?

Is he really "picking" on Canada?  What part of "reciprocal" don't you understand?  It''s a simple concept. 

[placeholder]

46 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Is he really "picking" on Canada?  What part of "reciprocal" don't you understand?  It''s a simple concept. 

I think it's your understanding of reciprocal that's in question. We know the dairy issue is fake since American dairy farmers have yet to ever reach their quotas for any of the dairy products in question. Is it about the balance of trade? If you take away oil and gas exports United States actually has a positive balance of trade with Canada. And as you may recall, Trump pushed very hard for the Keystone 2 pipeline and he  was not happy with Biden when he canceled it. In fact virtually all the right-wing posters in aseannow.com found fault with Biden for canceling it.

[jas007]

6 hours ago, Presnock said:

I can remember a program about 40 years ago that was started in an agency of the US - they worked with EEO and other offices to come up with 10 different categories of negative work traits and decided that one would need to meet at least 3 before being terminated.  The first ten candidates meeting that criteria were ID'd, then the EEO said it wouldn't work as all ten were black so that program was terminated.  I was a civil servent for 40 years and in my particular office I met very very few that were not working diligently almost all the time.  When I became a manager/worker, all my people worked ALL the time or soon departed from my office.  BUT, I rewarded the strongest workers and as all employees noted that they all began doing extra and people lined up to come work in my office as it was one of the best producers but not always the top as competition and pride of accomplishment zoomed.  Job satisfaction and recognition by seniors made folks stronger!

I have a limited sample.  Four different agencies plus two years on active duty in the US Army during Vietnam. Anyway, I've been a manager. I've also seen what goes on, typically.  People can look like they're working, but what are they accomplishing? You can go by their office and there they are, "hard at work."  And yet they take two or three days to accomplish what a competent employee could accomplish in three hours.  Are they doing that on purpose, or are they just stupid? 

 

I never tried to fire anyone, but the people playing games didn't get any good recommendations from me.  Sometimes, I wonder whatever happened to them.  They probably never got another promotion, ever. 

[jas007]

22 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I think it's your understanding of reciprocal that's in question. We know the dairy issue is fake since American dairy farmers have yet to ever reach their quotas for any of the dairy products in question. Is it about the balance of trade? If you take away oil and gas exports United States actually has a positive balance of trade with Canada. And as you may recall, Trump pushed very hard for the Keystone 2 pipeline and he  was not happy with Biden when he canceled it. In fact virtually all the right-wing posters in aseannow.com found fault with Biden for canceling it.

Reciprocal.  Tariff on shoes?  Ditto for the USA. Tariff on audio speakers, ditto. Tit for tat.  Don't muddy the water with nonsense. 

[frank83628]

On 3/22/2025 at 8:21 AM, pchansmorn said:

Are any American Expats worried Trump will stop there retirement income?  He’s headed for that next step.  He will destroy the SS system and Americans won’t have money to live on anymore.  We have our savings but it won’t last forever.  A reverse mortgage may be in our future.

I know a couple of NON Americans on here that are concerned about US social security, Lord knows why.....

[Presnock]

1 minute ago, jas007 said:

I have a limited sample.  Four different agencies plus two years on active duty in the US Army during Vietnam. Anyway, I've been a manager. I've also seen what goes on, typically.  People can look like they're working, but what are they accomplishing? You can go by their office and there they are, "hard at work."  And yet they take two or three days to accomplish what a competent employee could accomplish in three hours.  Are they doing that on purpose, or are they just stupid? 

 

I never tried to fire anyone, but the people playing games didn't get any good recommendations from me.  Sometimes, I wonder whatever happened to them.  They probably never got another promotion, ever. 

 

1 minute ago, jas007 said:

I have a limited sample.  Four different agencies plus two years on active duty in the US Army during Vietnam. Anyway, I've been a manager. I've also seen what goes on, typically.  People can look like they're working, but what are they accomplishing? You can go by their office and there they are, "hard at work."  And yet they take two or three days to accomplish what a competent employee could accomplish in three hours.  Are they doing that on purpose, or are they just stupid? 

 

I never tried to fire anyone, but the people playing games didn't get any good recommendations from me.  Sometimes, I wonder whatever happened to them.  They probably never got another promotion, ever. 

fortunately for me, I went to work after 4 years in the AF flying in VN and a 6-month stint with Dupont - I worked with 20 others doing basically the same job but within a month or so I was doing about 40 % of our office work.  I couldn't take more than a couple of days off in conjunction with a weekend and had to catch up when I returned, but I kept everyone else's work done until they returned, I also had no snow days at the rest did plus I had to work eithe Sat or Sun each week while most of them were not "qualified" though several had higher salaries.  But, I couldn't get promoted as it was that time in our history that the govt decided to catch up on promotions for minorities and females so i kept losing out, did a remote assignment as a tech rep in the VN theater, but then all in my office got the same promo I did.  However, I was offered a job in a new office - which enabled me to acquire managerial positions along with operational experience too  and enabled me to retire making a really great salary.  I am now of course an OLD man, but I know my family will be taken care of even if I die tomorrow.  I retired here in Thailand knowing that my salary would enable me to do whatever I wanted and I still love it here.  I have family of course in the US and based on what they write, I have no plans to ever move back there.  My only foreign travel will be to visit my daughter going to college in Seoul on an exchange program with her university here in Bangkok.  But US passport holders do not even need a visa for Korea if the visit is under I think 30 days.  Easy in nd easy out.  Now with the LTR here for 9 more years, same story here  easy out and easy in.  Fortunately 99% of the people that were selected for my organization had weeded out most of the bad but I did help some leave earlier than they planned, but they were not fired but they no longer worked for my organization.  We of course had to do more every year but without any increase in numbers of employees nor budget and sometimes even those were cut.  Having to do the budget and congressional oversight briefings were sometimes not very pleasant but at least I got my point across and never had any negative repercussions.  I was able to work as hard as I did only with the support amd sacrifice of my family.  Great job to have and great rewards too.

[Presnock]

1 minute ago, frank83628 said:

I know a couple of NON Americans on here that are concerned about US social security, Lord knows why.....

Yeah I wonder at times seeing the American Citizens Abroad notes about what Congress is doing that could affect living overseas, I note many times that they just might decide that any retirement benefits must be paid only within the US and not into any foregin country.  I note that DTA's protect SS and civil service pensions but the congress is talking about stopping taxes on seniors and SS and was wondering if that would have any affect on the DTA since if one is not taxed by the US govt, then Thailand might interpret that as making it taxble in Thailand.   But not even sure any of the proposals on taxes will ever see the light of day. with our congress.

[NoDisplayName]

10 hours ago, Jingthing said:

You believe Trump? OMG.

 

You believe anonymous sources saying Trump said?   OMLG!