Trump Is Already Slowing Global Trade as Companies Pause Orders

[Cryingdick]

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

This is a public forum open to all members, If you want to have a 2 way conversation with someone, that's what PM is for. I wasn't aware that the powers that be had delegated the authority to you to dismiss other members. Did they give you a badge, too?

Likewise if i choose not to obey your demands or engage with you i also do not have to. You have a way of inserting you into everything. You are the guy that when you walk in the bar and he is there I walk out. I obviously don't have anything really to say to you. 

 

I am sure you can't resist having the final word because that's sort of your gig. Do so now.

[Lacessit]

8 hours ago, jas007 said:

In case you are unaware, China is not the only place on Earth that has "rare earths." Nor is it the only producer. 

In case you are unaware, China mines 70% of the world's rare earths. It processes 90% of rare earths into usable form.

 

FYI, the richest deposit of the rare earth elements neodymium and praseodymium is in Australia. The mine and processing for concentrate  will come into production late 2025.

 

Unfortunately for America, most of its output is forward sold to the EU for the next ten years.

[CallumWK]

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/18dSzJ3Qyj/

[jas007]

19 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

In case you are unaware, China mines 70% of the world's rare earths. It processes 90% of rare earths into usable form.

 

FYI, the richest deposit of the rare earth elements neodymium and praseodymium is in Australia. The mine and processing for concentrate  will come into production late 2025.

 

Unfortunately for America, most of its output is forward sold to the EU for the next ten years.

What about the deposits in Russia and Ukraine that Trump is trying to make a deal on?  And America has its own deposits.  If push comes to shove, I think they can extract those deposits fairly quickly.  

[Lacessit]

1 minute ago, jas007 said:

What about the deposits in Russia and Ukraine that Trump is trying to make a deal on?  And America has its own deposits.  If push comes to shove, I think they can extract those deposits fairly quickly.  

It takes on average 5-7 years to develop a mine, more if beneficiation is required. How cost effective it is, also depends on the ore body grades. No two mines are the same in terms of the treatment technologies required to make the mine profitable. That takes time in research.

 

I was on the ground floor of the first iron ore boom in Western Australia back in the sixties, so I may just know a bit more about mine development than you do.

 

 

[jas007]

36 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

It takes on average 5-7 years to develop a mine, more if beneficiation is required. How cost effective it is, also depends on the ore body grades. No two mines are the same in terms of the treatment technologies required to make the mine profitable. That takes time in research.

 

I was on the ground floor of the first iron ore boom in Western Australia back in the sixties, so I may just know a bit more about mine development than you do.

 

 

Under normal circumstances, you may be right.  You have to find the stuff.  Someone has to do a study about it.  Then, there's bureaucratic red tape. At some point, they may actually begin development.and production. In normal times that process can take 10 years or more. 

 

However, for Trump's purposes and in the case of a declared "national emergency," much if not all of the bureaucracy could be dispensed with.  And in those areas where there are known deposits,  it may well be that production could be expedited.

 

Significant deposits in the Western Hemisphere include the USA,  Greenland, and Brazil.  

 

Other significant deposits are located around the world, including in countries that may well be agreeable to an expedited production process. 

 

So perhaps the situation isn't quite so dire as it would be in normal times. 

 

  

[blaze master]

1 hour ago, Cryingdick said:

Likewise if i choose not to obey your demands or engage with you i also do not have to. You have a way of inserting you into everything. You are the guy that when you walk in the bar and he is there I walk out. I obviously don't have anything really to say to you. 

 

I am sure you can't resist having the final word because that's sort of your gig. Do so now.

 

So in other words you've got nothing. 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Cryingdick said:

Likewise if i choose not to obey your demands or engage with you i also do not have to. You have a way of inserting you into everything. You are the guy that when you walk in the bar and he is there I walk out. I obviously don't have anything really to say to you. 

 

I am sure you can't resist having the final word because that's sort of your gig. Do so now.

 

Thanks for your obvious passive aggressive ploy to try and have the last word."

"I am sure you can't resist having the final word because that's sort of your gig. Do so now."

 

And now you're making irrelevant characterizations about me to make me the issue.

You've got nothing.

[Lacessit]

15 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Under normal circumstances, you may be right.  You have to find the stuff.  Someone has to do a study about it.  Then, there's bureaucratic red tape. At some point, they may actually begin development.= and production. In normal times that process can take 10 years or more. 

 

However, for Trump's purposes and in the case of a declared "national emergency," much if not all of the bureaucracy could be dispensed with.  And in those areas where there are known deposits,  it may well be that production could be expedited in those areas as well.

 

Significant deposits in the Western Hemisphere include the USA,  Greenland, and Brazil.  

 

Significant deposits are located around the world, including in countries that may well be agreeable to an expedited production process. 

 

So perhaps the situation isn't quite so dire as it would be in normal times. 

 

  

All of what you say is correct. However, mining and processing rare earths is not like other mines.

 

Iron ore is simple. You dig it up, crush it into suitable sizes, ship it. The only known health effect from iron ore is that doctors in the Pilbara have never seen a case of anemia.

 

Rare earths are an entirely different kettle of fish. Some elements, such as thorium and uranium, are radioactive. Miners are exposed to that hazard plus silicosis. Then there are the acids and solvents used in processing.

China dominates rare earth production because it does not give a rat's rectum for its workers.

 

There would be a whole new gamut of OH&S plus environmental regulations to be met if rare earths were mined in America. Unless Trump copied the Chinese in ditching them.

[stevenl]

34 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Under normal circumstances, you may be right.  You have to find the stuff.  Someone has to do a study about it.  Then, there's bureaucratic red tape. At some point, they may actually begin development.and production. In normal times that process can take 10 years or more. 

 

However, for Trump's purposes and in the case of a declared "national emergency," much if not all of the bureaucracy could be dispensed with.  And in those areas where there are known deposits,  it may well be that production could be expedited.

 

Significant deposits in the Western Hemisphere include the USA,  Greenland, and Brazil.  

 

Other significant deposits are located around the world, including in countries that may well be agreeable to an expedited production process. 

 

So perhaps the situation isn't quite so dire as it would be in normal times. 

 

  

Except for trump times are normal.

[placeholder]

36 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Under normal circumstances, you may be right.  You have to find the stuff.  Someone has to do a study about it.  Then, there's bureaucratic red tape. At some point, they may actually begin development.and production. In normal times that process can take 10 years or more. 

 

However, for Trump's purposes and in the case of a declared "national emergency," much if not all of the bureaucracy could be dispensed with.  And in those areas where there are known deposits,  it may well be that production could be expedited.

 

Significant deposits in the Western Hemisphere include the USA,  Greenland, and Brazil.  

 

Other significant deposits are located around the world, including in countries that may well be agreeable to an expedited production process. 

 

So perhaps the situation isn't quite so dire as it would be in normal times. 

 

  

So I asked ChatGPT how long it takes to develop a rare earth mine once all the permits have been granted.

General Timeline (Post-Permitting):

1. Construction Phase (1–2 years):

   • Site preparation (infrastructure, roads, power, water).

   • Plant construction (processing facilities are complex due to the need for separation of different rare earth elements).

   • Mining setup (excavation equipment, waste management systems).

2. Commissioning & Ramp-Up (1–2 years):

   • Equipment testing.

   • Processing facility calibration.

   • Gradual increase in production rates until full capacity is reached.

[jas007]

8 hours ago, Lacessit said:

All of what you say is correct. However, mining and processing rare earths is not like other mines.

 

Iron ore is simple. You dig it up, crush it into suitable sizes, ship it. The only known health effect from iron ore is that doctors in the Pilbara have never seen a case of anemia.

 

Rare earths are an entirely different kettle of fish. Some elements, such as thorium and uranium, are radioactive. Miners are exposed to that hazard plus silicosis. Then there are the acids and solvents used in processing.

China dominates rare earth production because it does not give a rat's rectum for its workers.

 

There would be a whole new gamut of OH&S plus environmental regulations to be met if rare earths were mined in America. Unless Trump copied the Chinese in ditching them.

In a time of national emergency, Trump would cut through al the nonsense.  The county could worry about the environment at a later date.  

[Lacessit]

2 hours ago, jas007 said:

In a time of national emergency, Trump would cut through al the nonsense.  The county could worry about the environment at a later date.  

Brilliant. So you become the same as your enemy.

 

An economics professor from New Zealand has published a detailed study of the effect of tariffs on the GDP of most countries. Guess what? The USA is the worst affected, even if no other nation reciprocates with tariffs of their own.

[jas007]

29 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Brilliant. So you become the same as your enemy.

 

An economics professor from New Zealand has published a detailed study of the effect of tariffs on the GDP of most countries. Guess what? The USA is the worst affected, even if no other nation reciprocates with tariffs of their own.

Trump isn't my "enemy."  And I don't play that game, unlike most people here who seem to think that the only thing that matters is winning the political tit for tat game.  "Get Trump."  That's the extent of their programming.  The media propaganda machine told them to "get Trump," and that's all they think about.  No one asks the question "why"? 

 

Trump is the president, like it or not.  So, in my mind, I try to figure out what's next, simply as a mater of staying out of the way of the chaos and the financial crisis.  

 

As for Trump sidestepping the environmental issues to facilitate the need for immediate production?  You know that's what he would do, if he could manage to get away with it.  Remember the recent California fires in Malibu and Pacific Palisades?  The water to some of the hydrants was turned off.  And yet California wanted permits, environmental impact studies, and lord knows what other permits, simply too turn on water and fill reservoirs. Trump told them to forget it and had the Army turn the water on.  Problem solved.  Had it gone by the California time schedule, they'd be waiting for water for years. 

[placeholder]

21 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Trump isn't my "enemy."  And I don't play that game, unlike most people here who seem to think that the only thing that matters is winning the political tit for tat game.  "Get Trump."  That's the extent of their programming.  The media propaganda machine told them to "get Trump," and that's all they think about.  No one asks the question "why"? 

 

Trump is the president, like it or not.  So, in my mind, I try to figure out what's next, simply as a mater of staying out of the way of the chaos and the financial crisis.  

 

As for Trump sidestepping the environmental issues to facilitate the need for immediate production?  You know that's what he would do, if he could manage to get away with it.  Remember the recent California fires in Malibu and Pacific Palisades?  The water to some of the hydrants was turned off.  And yet California wanted permits, environmental impact studies, and lord knows what other permits, simply too turn on water and fill reservoirs. Trump told them to forget it and had the Army turn the water on.  Problem solved.  Had it gone by the California time schedule, they'd be waiting for water for years. 

I wonder where you get your news from. This was actually a notorious error from Trump:

Trump-ordered Water Release Wasted Billions Of Gallons: Experts

Donald Trump's demand for billions of gallons (liters) of water to be released in California, in what he said was a move to help combat fires in Los Angeles, was wasteful and pointless, experts say.

The US president told military engineers to open two dams in the state's central valley, claiming it would help put out blazes that have ravaged the city and would also irrigate farmland.

But water experts say the order opening dams in California's San Joaquin Valley sent water down channels and waterways into irrigation ditches in the same valley -- nowhere near the fires, and at a time when farms there do not need irrigating.

https://www.barrons.com/news/trump-ordered-water-release-wasted-billions-of-gallons-experts-aa1e7dc8

 

[jerrymahoney]

How wuz Trump supposed to know water doesn't flow uphill?

[jas007]

25 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I wonder where you get your news from. This was actually a notorious error from Trump:

Trump-ordered Water Release Wasted Billions Of Gallons: Experts

Donald Trump's demand for billions of gallons (liters) of water to be released in California, in what he said was a move to help combat fires in Los Angeles, was wasteful and pointless, experts say.

The US president told military engineers to open two dams in the state's central valley, claiming it would help put out blazes that have ravaged the city and would also irrigate farmland.

But water experts say the order opening dams in California's San Joaquin Valley sent water down channels and waterways into irrigation ditches in the same valley -- nowhere near the fires, and at a time when farms there do not need irrigating.

https://www.barrons.com/news/trump-ordered-water-release-wasted-billions-of-gallons-experts-aa1e7dc8

 

You miss my point.  Trump gave the order. No studies necessary. No bureaucratic nonsense.  He thought it would work and he did it. No questions asked.

 

That's exactly what would happen in the case of the immediate need for the production rare earths.  Just do it!

[placeholder]

10 minutes ago, jas007 said:

You miss my point.  Trump gave the order. No studies necessary. No bureaucratic nonsense.  He thought it would work and he did it. No questions asked.

 

That's exactly what would happen in the case of the immediate need for the production rare earths.  Just do it!

If that was your point why did you claim "Problem solved"?

Why doesn't that make you recognize that it might be dangerous to have an ignoramus making such important decisions?

[Lacessit]

41 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Trump isn't my "enemy."  And I don't play that game, unlike most people here who seem to think that the only thing that matters is winning the political tit for tat game.  "Get Trump."  That's the extent of their programming.  The media propaganda machine told them to "get Trump," and that's all they think about.  No one asks the question "why"? 

 

Trump is the president, like it or not.  So, in my mind, I try to figure out what's next, simply as a mater of staying out of the way of the chaos and the financial crisis.  

 

As for Trump sidestepping the environmental issues to facilitate the need for immediate production?  You know that's what he would do, if he could manage to get away with it.  Remember the recent California fires in Malibu and Pacific Palisades?  The water to some of the hydrants was turned off.  And yet California wanted permits, environmental impact studies, and lord knows what other permits, simply too turn on water and fill reservoirs. Trump told them to forget it and had the Army turn the water on.  Problem solved.  Had it gone by the California time schedule, they'd be waiting for water for years. 

You mistake my meaning. Discard the OH&S and environmental protections, you become just like China. That's who I meant by the enemy.

 

America has enjoyed what is termed exorbitant privilege since 1946. It has the world's reserve currency. Treasury bills traditionally have paid far less in interest than their overseas counterparts, resulting in lower borrowing costs.

 

When a country pays America for a $100 bill, it does so in goods and services. The US Treasury prints one for a few cents.

 

So what happens when traders lose faith in the USD as a safe haven? Check out the gold price and the cost of a Swiss franc.

 

Most Americans don't seem to realize Trump is leading them into financial catastrophe. There is nothing to stop other nations trading with China in its currency, which is slowly being internationalized to prevent capital flight. If the Chinese take the brakes off, the yuan or renminbi could easily replace the USD. It's only because the Chinese are long-term thinkers it has not happened already.

 

Empires don't usually fall from external forces. Incompetence, arrogance and corruption from within are the usual culprits.

 

At present, I am 15% in blue-chip shares paying a dividend, 5% in a rare earth mining stock. The rest is cash. That's my strategy.

 

 

[jas007]

21 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Most Americans don't seem to realize Trump is leading them into financial catastrophe. There is nothing to stop other nations trading with China in its currency, which is slowly being internationalized to prevent capital flight. If the Chinese take the brakes off, the yuan or renminbi could easily replace the USD. It's only because the Chinese are long-term thinkers it has not happe

 First of all, you seem to know nothing abut international financial markets and the depth of liquidity required for a nation to maintain the world reserve currency.  China does not now, and will not have in our lifetimes, that kind of liquidity and a banking system that operates within a framework of international law.  For all practical purposes, China's financial markets are closed to the rest of the world, unless, or course, it suits them otherwise.  Perhaps a trillion dollars change hands on a daily basis in the Western banking system, much of it in the USA.  There's only one place that can happen: the USA.  No where else.  BRICS and the proposed BRICS system is more or less a pipe dream, at this point. 

 

As for Trump leading the US into financial catastrophe?  Well, if he keeps it up, people may begin to question the stability of the dollar and the US markets.  I agree.  But what then? Where will they go with their "money"?  Nowhere even remotely feasible at present. 

 

When time, in 1971, Secretary of the Treasury John Connolly, was asked about the dollar and its role in international transactions.  He said "the dollar is our currency, but it's your problem."   He knew then and it's still true today.  There is no substitute.  Maybe in the future, but not now. 

[jas007]

38 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

You mistake my meaning. Discard the OH&S and environmental protections, you become just like China. That's who I meant by the enemy.

Again, people keep worrying about what should be.  That's not the issue, at least in my mind.  The issue is what's next and how to navigate the nonsense.  

[impulse]

2 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Again, people keep worrying about what should be.  That's not the issue, at least in my mind.  The issue is what's next and how to navigate the nonsense.  

 

Nonsense that's been going on for decades, through many administrations.  Leading to a $35 trillion national debt.

 

[Lacessit]

14 minutes ago, jas007 said:

 First of all, you seem to know nothing abut international financial markets and the depth of liquidity required for a nation to maintain the world reserve currency.  China does not now, and will not have in our lifetimes, that kind of liquidity and a banking system that operates within a framework of international law.  For all practical purposes, China's financial markets are closed to the rest of the world, unless, or course, it suits them otherwise.  Perhaps a trillion dollars change hands on a daily basis in the Western banking system, much of it in the USA.  There's only one place that can happen: the USA.  No where else.  BRICS and the proposed BRICS system is more or less a pipe dream, at this point. 

 

As for Trump leading the US into financial catastrophe?  Well, if he keeps it up, people may begin to question the stability of the dollar and the US markets.  I agree.  But what then? Where will they go with their "money"?  Nowhere even remotely feasible at present. 

 

When time, in 1971, Secretary of the Treasury John Connolly, was asked about the dollar and its role in international transactions.  He said "the dollar is our currency, but it's your problem."   He knew then and it's still true today.  There is no substitute.  Maybe in the future, but not now. 

Saying I know nothing is the classic ad hominem putdown of someone who has a closed mind.

 

With a $36 trillion dollar debt, the liquidity of the US is based on trust, which is evaporating. Questioning of the US markets has already begun. The decline of bonds in tandem with shares is an unprecedented event in American financial history.

 

You ask where people would put their money instead. Gold and Swiss francs are obvious destinations.

 

Americans think of China as a nation of peasants. It may surprise you to know China has a population of middle class people who outnumber the entire population of the USA.

 

It's obvious you have drunk so much Trump KoolAid your capacity for logic and facts has been destroyed, so I won't waste my time with you any further. Bye now.

 

 

[jas007]

My apologies if all you got from my post was that is was a "ad hominem" putdown.  I was trying to inform you of a few simple facts.  And I fully agree trust in the US debt market is eroding. The country is in unchartered markets.  And yes, the USA is abusing its "exorbitant privilege."  It's very sad, but it's happening. 

 

Gold is real money, for all practical purposes.  It has been for thousands of years. Swiss Francs? It's a fiat currency, only, and has been since the year 2000.  The Swiss Central bank is playing the same fiat currency game as all the other central banks.  

 

As for everyone using gold for money?  Possible, but bankers can't be trusted to store it, and if people started using just gold coins for transactions along with silver coins for the peasants, we'd be back in the dark ages.  And if governments now tried to revalue the price of gold to reflect the current  "money" in circulation and the current value of all the debt based paper assets on the books, the value of each ounce of gold would be astronomical. Sounds like a fun plan so long as you are willing to do away with banks, paper money, ATM machines, international wire transfers, credit cards, and so on. Carry around your money in a little leather pouch and hope no one robs you.  

 

As for the Chinese middle class?  Currently losing their jobs, unable to sell their overpriced real estate, watching the value of their banking deposits evaporate, and living on borrowed time.  

 

And if you think all that is Trump Kool Aid, fine.  Think what you want, but don't  be surprised when, five or ten years from now, the world is still using the US Dollar as its reserve currency.

 

All bets are off if there's WWIII. The system will shut down and you'll be scrounging around looking for food and clean water, unless you happen to live on a working farm. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

Saying I know nothing is the classic ad hominem putdown of someone who has a closed mind.

 

With a $36 trillion dollar debt, the liquidity of the US is based on trust, which is evaporating. Questioning of the US markets has already begun. The decline of bonds in tandem with shares is an unprecedented event in American financial history.

 

You ask where people would put their money instead. Gold and Swiss francs are obvious destinations.

 

Americans think of China as a nation of peasants. It may surprise you to know China has a population of middle class people who outnumber the entire population of the USA.

 

It's obvious you have drunk so much Trump KoolAid your capacity for logic and facts has been destroyed, so I won't waste my time with you any further. Bye now.

 

 

Actually, investors have been fleeing to Japanese and German bonds.

[Lacessit]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Actually, investors have been fleeing to Japanese and German bonds.

Quite so.

 

A Swiss guy once told me the currency is best situated to weather financial crises. While he might have been somewhat biased, the latest trend in the franc vs the dollar bears out his observation.

[jas007]

17 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Actually, investors have been fleeing to Japanese and German bonds.

Incredible, isn't it?  Buying the debt of two countries that are even more screwed up, financially, than the USA.  I guess they may be thinking short term. Push a few buttons, sell a few US Treasuries, and buy some Japanese or German bonds.  And if things improve, reverse the process with a few more keystrokes.  

 

Anyway, none of that solves the issue of what currency would replace the US Dollar. 

[placeholder]

14 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Incredible, isn't it?  Buying the debt of two countries that are even more screwed up, financially, than the USA.  I guess they may be thinking short term. Push a few buttons, sell a few US Treasuries, and buy some Japanese or German bonds.  And if things improve, reverse the process with a few more keystrokes.  

 

Anyway, none of that solves the issue of what currency would replace the US Dollar. 

Investors are forward looking in their thinking. And given the obvious consequences of Trump's foolishness, who can blame them?

[jas007]

Just now, placeholder said:

Investors are forward looking in their thinking. And given the obvious consequences of Trump's foolishness, who can blame them?

At the rate they move money around these days, it's hard to call many of them "investors."  They may be buying and selling long bonds, but those transactions can be handled in an instant and reversed in an instant.  So they're just playing games, trying to stay ahead of the curve.

[placeholder]

8 minutes ago, jas007 said:

At the rate they move money around these days, it's hard to call many of them "investors."  They may be buying and selling long bonds, but those transactions can be handled in an instant and reversed in an instant.  So they're just playing games, trying to stay ahead of the curve.

Liz Truss redux

https://archive.ph/2U6Db#selection-681.0-681.211