The Struggle for Supremacy: Can Trump Halt China’s Global Ascent?

[spidermike007]

8 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

No, it really doesn't. Trump can derail China. For a start, China's biggest export market is the US, 400 billion USD worth. Global demand for Chinese goods is limited, it is not infinite. Apart from the EU there is no other market like the US.

 

Secondly, the USA's purchasing power is like 89000 USD, China's is 15000 USD. 

 

Thirdly, China has a huge problem with its women, who are refusing to have children. Thus, the prevalence of old people in China and the problem of pension and services.

 

Unemployment is a problem in China. So is the real estate crisis.

 

Taking away 400 billion USD  of market is a huge problem for China. China, after all is an export nation that relies on its trading partners to buy its products.

 

It might just be possible that Trump will succeed where Britain failed. When Britain cut down its competition, Germany, it cut off its own nose in the process. However, Trump is not going to war. He is going to bring down China economically. He may just be able to do it.

That is certainly what his supporters hope, who are definitely not taking into account a dozen different facts and angles, that alter this equation. 

[Gweiloman]

10 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

No, it really doesn't. Trump can derail China. For a start, China's biggest export market is the US, 400 billion USD worth. Global demand for Chinese goods is limited, it is not infinite. Apart from the EU there is no other market like the US.

 

Secondly, the USA's purchasing power is like 89000 USD, China's is 15000 USD. 

 

Thirdly, China has a huge problem with its women, who are refusing to have children. Thus, the prevalence of old people in China and the problem of pension and services.

 

Unemployment is a problem in China. So is the real estate crisis.

 

Taking away 400 billion USD  of market is a huge problem for China. China, after all is an export nation that relies on its trading partners to buy its products.

 

It might just be possible that Trump will succeed where Britain failed. When Britain cut down its competition, Germany, it cut off its own nose in the process. However, Trump is not going to war. He is going to bring down China economically. He may just be able to do it.

The US maybe China’s largest single trading country but China trades more with ASEAN than with the US. No expert, and I don’t mean guys like you on a forum, thinks that the US is going to win this trade war. As it is, Trump has already blinked thrice, the last time, exempting 40% of goods traded (smartphones, computers etc) with China.

 

It’s rather sad that guys like you are so blinded to the realities due to your anti-China stance. Whatever has China done to you to make you hate it so much, I wonder. You are like that Gordon character that Fox trots out regularly, who has been predicting the economic collapse of China since over a decade. He will be right one day of course, same as I will be, predicting the end of humanity on earth, in about 4 billion years time.

[stevenl]

17 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

The US maybe China’s largest single trading country but China trades more with ASEAN than with the US. No expert, and I don’t mean guys like you on a forum, thinks that the US is going to win this trade war. As it is, Trump has already blinked thrice, the last time, exempting 40% of goods traded (smartphones, computers etc) with China.

 

It’s rather sad that guys like you are so blinded to the realities due to your anti-China stance. Whatever has China done to you to make you hate it so much, I wonder. You are like that Gordon character that Fox trots out regularly, who has been predicting the economic collapse of China since over a decade. He will be right one day of course, same as I will be, predicting the end of humanity on earth, in about 4 billion years time.

I don't think it's an anti China stance for many. It's a pro trump stance, who does the right thing all the time. Threatening tariffs is good, cancelling tariff threats is good, implementing tariffs is good, cancelling tariffs is good, implementing tariffs is good, changing tariffs is good. 

[Cameroni]

1 hour ago, Gweiloman said:

The US maybe China’s largest single trading country but China trades more with ASEAN than with the US. No expert, and I don’t mean guys like you on a forum, thinks that the US is going to win this trade war. As it is, Trump has already blinked thrice, the last time, exempting 40% of goods traded (smartphones, computers etc) with China.

 

It’s rather sad that guys like you are so blinded to the realities due to your anti-China stance. Whatever has China done to you to make you hate it so much, I wonder. You are like that Gordon character that Fox trots out regularly, who has been predicting the economic collapse of China since over a decade. He will be right one day of course, same as I will be, predicting the end of humanity on earth, in about 4 billion years time.

 

Actually, you are mistaken on this point. Plenty of people think the US would in fact win a trade war:

 

Why China Can’t Win a Trade War

 

https://time.com/7276876/china-retaliatory-tariffs-us-trade-war/

 

China is highly dependent on foreign investment, its options in the trade war are very limited. All of them have great drawbacks for China.

 

i don't hate China at all. I love China.  I am just being realistic. In a trade war with the US, the Chinese will run out of bullets first. 

 

I am in no way predicting China's economy will collapse, however, a trade war WOULD certainly shave a number of points off of China's GDP. The Chinese would have to "eat bitterness" again.

 

The question is not if China's economy will collapse. It won't. However, we are already seeing how China's economy is losing its lustre, even before the tarriffs. Lower growth, unemployment, real estate crisis, unhealty low birth rates, high dependency on foreign investment, low domestic demand, the problems for China go on and on and on. If the US really would go all out in a trade war, the US would win. China's economy would suffer greatly.

 

Nevertheless, the US economy would also suffer, so it is actually more likely that there will be a trade deal done, which will greatly benefit the US. Either way, the US will win. China will lose.

[stevenl]

7 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

Either way, the US will win. China will lose

Your linked article didagrees with you.

"Those comments look like a mutual recognition that a trade war of attrition is a loser for both countries."

[Cameroni]

5 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Your linked article didagrees with you.

"Those comments look like a mutual recognition that a trade war of attrition is a loser for both countries."

 

No it doesn't, it says both countries would suffer, but China has less bullets. If therefore the trade war went ahead in full, the US would win.

[sharot724]

8 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Actually, you are mistaken on this point. Plenty of people think the US would in fact win a trade war:

 

Why China Can’t Win a Trade War

 

https://time.com/7276876/china-retaliatory-tariffs-us-trade-war/

 

China is highly dependent on foreign investment, its options in the trade war are very limited. All of them have great drawbacks for China.

 

i don't hate China at all. I love China.  I am just being realistic. In a trade war with the US, the Chinese will run out of bullets first. 

 

I am in no way predicting China's economy will collapse, however, a trade war WOULD certainly shave a number of points off of China's GDP. The Chinese would have to "eat bitterness" again.

 

The question is not if China's economy will collapse. It won't. However, we are already seeing how China's economy is losing its lustre, even before the tarriffs. Lower growth, unemployment, real estate crisis, unhealty low birth rates, high dependency on foreign investment, low domestic demand, the problems for China go on and on and on. If the US really would go all out in a trade war, the US would win. China's economy would suffer greatly.

 

Nevertheless, the US economy would also suffer, so it is actually more likely that there will be a trade deal done, which will greatly benefit the US. Either way, the US will win. China will lose.

I agree everybody you all need get ready to rumble with more and more suffering.

You agree the expectation is Americans suffering  supporting tarriffs then.

You also were the First to tell the forum Trump ended the War... but who is really listening..

[JackGats]

If Trump can check China he will do us all - lefties included - a huge favour. China getting bigger and more powerful year after year is not something we can ignore. What will become of Thailand once the Chinese have both the strongest economy AND the strongest currency? Hordes of poor Chinese are bad enough, fancy hordes of rich Chinese?

[sharot724]

1 minute ago, JackGats said:

If Trump can check China he will do us all - left-wingers included - a huge favour. China getting bigger and more powerful year after year is not something we can ignore. What will become of Thailand once the Chinese have the strongest economy AND the strongest currency?

me first low cost will continue...

[stevenl]

48 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

No it doesn't, it says both countries would suffer, but China has less bullets. If therefore the trade war went ahead in full, the US would win.

I didn't realize this quote was too difficult for you. Maybe next time find an easier source? It clearly says 'both sides a loser'.
 

Quote

"Those comments look like a mutual recognition that a trade war of attrition is a loser for both countries."

 

[saintdomingo]

15 hours ago, Sir Dude said:

 

I thought you were not a CCP bot apologist... but looks like you are losing cred on that post. How much is the CCP paying you and others on this forum to push CCP propaganda and their narrative? Lol... happening everywhere on social media, including Youtube... facepalm.

It would have been better to ask him to specify the multiple ways and then to answer them one by one.

The problem is he might just be right.

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

:

 

 

Then there is China’s vaunted control over the minerals and so-called rare earths used to make electronics. But U.S. companies generally don’t buy the minerals directly from China. Rather, they are packaged into components sold to U.S. buyers. Should Beijing push too hard, it will incentivize other nations to match Chinese subsidies for mining and processing.

https://time.com/7276876/china-retaliatory-tariffs-us-trade-war/

U.S.′ inability to replace rare earths supply from China poses a threat to its defense, warns CSIS

As China imposes export controls on rare earth elements, the U.S. would be unable to fill a potential shortfall, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies — and this could threaten Washington’s military capabilities.

Amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating tariffs on China, Beijing earlier this month imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and magnets used in defense, energy and automotive technologies.

The new restrictions — which encompass the medium and heavy rare earth elements samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium — will require Chinese companies to secure special licenses to export the resources.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/15/us-is-unable-to-replace-rare-earths-supply-from-china-warns-csis-.html

 

Not Just ‘Rare Earths’: U.S. Gets Many Critical Minerals From China

Before this month, China had already restricted U.S. access to four critical minerals — gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite — in retaliation for earlier rounds of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Those minerals are used in chip-making and have applications in semiconductors, military explosives and other weaponry.

https://archive.ph/LoLxp#selection-2119.0-2119.319

 

 

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, JackGats said:

If Trump can check China he will do us all - lefties included - a huge favour. China getting bigger and more powerful year after year is not something we can ignore. What will become of Thailand once the Chinese have both the strongest economy AND the strongest currency? Hordes of poor Chinese are bad enough, fancy hordes of rich Chinese?

It’s healthy for US and China to compete in every domain not check or prevent. US can’t stop China ascension economically or militarily. Even with allies, US can’t stop China; even more so when USA is isolated and alone.  The 2 superpowers and the rest of the world can benefit from a measure of cooperation and preventing a major catastrophic war. Not a zero sum game for both countries to cooperate.
 

Thailand and asean will benefit immensely from China growing economic strength although it has to be managed based on national interests. Trump is handling foreign policies poorly and have given the edge to china influence globally. Wealthy Chinese are already in Thailand as well as in Malaysia and other asean countries. Poor Chinese have no means to travel and acquire assets. 

[Paul Henry]

Cameroni should check the facts instead of reading and believing the MAGA  BS. USA has less than 15% of the total China exports. China has the whip hand over TRUMP. First they are strategic thinkers, they have long term plans and are making allies on many continents.Trump already has egg on his face and the USA will come out loosing the trade war Trump started with no planning or thought. He still claims that the "other country pays tha tariff and is lying again about the billions of dollars the US is taking in every day.

Inflation and unemployment is about to take off in the US.No worries Trump will blame Biden or someone else never acepts responsibilty for any of the many FU he makes.

[Cameroni]

19 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

US can’t stop China ascension economically

 

China exports 400 billion USD worth to the US. 

 

The US has just taken that away. The US has the capacity to shave several points off of China's GDP.

 

So what you are saying is false. The US DOES have the ability to impact China's economic growth figures substantially. 

 

How could it be otherwise  when the  US is China's biggest, most profitable trading market worth 400 billion USD?

 

 

[Cameroni]

1 hour ago, Paul Henry said:

Cameroni should check the facts instead of reading and believing the MAGA  BS. USA has less than 15% of the total China exports. China has the whip hand over TRUMP. First they are strategic thinkers, they have long term plans and are making allies on many continents.Trump already has egg on his face and the USA will come out loosing the trade war Trump started with no planning or thought. He still claims that the "other country pays tha tariff and is lying again about the billions of dollars the US is taking in every day.

Inflation and unemployment is about to take off in the US.No worries Trump will blame Biden or someone else never acepts responsibilty for any of the many FU he makes.

 

Paul Henry should stop talking nonsense and check the facts, as Cameroni has already done so and can tell he is talking complete bs.

 

The US market is worth 400 billion USD to China. THAT is the key fact.

 

Another fact: China is a nation dependent on exports. Why? Because the huge Chinese market is very low value. US purchassing power is 89000 USD, China's purchasing power per head is only 15000 USD. 

 

The US holds bigger and better cards in this trade war. The US market is far more valuable. The Chinese depend far more on the US market.

 

And btw, unemployment is already a problem in China. So is lack of domestic demand. Real Estate crisis. Overdependence on foreign investment.

 

Trump has more bullets, and he knows it. The Chinese will be DESPERATE to negotiate. They will come crawling to the table.

[Eric Loh]

14 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

China exports 400 billion USD worth to the US. 

 

The US has just taken that away. The US has the capacity to shave several points off of China's GDP.

 

So what you are saying is false. The US DOES have the ability to impact China's economic growth figures substantially. 

 

How could it be otherwise  when the  US is China's biggest, most profitable trading market worth 400 billion USD?

 

 

It has already been stated that export to US is 12% of total export trade. Here is another fact for you. Chinese export to US only account for about 3% of China total GDP. China Q1 was 5.4% higher than forecast while US Q1 decline -2.8% and facing recession. Goldman Sachs forecast that the drag from US trade tensions will cut their China forecast to 4% which is still much higher than US. The tariffs will hurt both sides but China is better positioned to absorb much of the pain by diversification, financial stimulation, subsidies and new export markets. Meanwhile US is isolated economically and staring at high inflation. You really need to take off your blinders and be intellectually rationale. You don’t seem to know much. 

 

[Cameroni]

 

"Yes, every economy faces difficulties, especially developing ones. But China's are intractable. Because Xi Jinping is determined to take the country in an unsustainable direction, China is entering, as some call it, a "doom loop."

"China's economy is confronting a crisis unlike any it has experienced since it opened its economy to the world more than four decades ago," the New York Times reported in September.

 

In 2008, China's President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao decided they would not allow the economy to suffer, so they embarked on perhaps the biggest stimulus program in history.

The result was historic overbuilding, and the country now has too much of almost everything. For instance, He Keng, a former senior statistics official, in 2023 publicly revealed that China had enough vacant apartments to house the entire population of 1.4 billion people. He noted that some believed that empty homes could hold three billion.

 

To deal with the severe imbalance, some Chinese localities are demolishing newly completed but vacant apartment buildings. Yet this is only a temporary fix. After all, destroyed buildings cannot produce revenue to pay for their construction and demolition.

 

Without paying for the bad investments—largely real estate—the economy can't grow," says Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research, author of Wild Ride: A Short History of the Opening and Closing of the Chinese Economy. "And it definitely can't pay for the bad investments. At least within the next decade."

 

The crisis will almost certainly last a long time. "China has grown almost entirely through capital investment," notes Stevenson-Yang. "Because there isn't enough to invest in, a lot of good money chases bad, and they have reached a limit. The Chinese economy is having a heart seizure."

 

The seizure looks fatal. China's total-country-debt-to-GDP ratio is extraordinarily high. After taking into account so-called "hidden debt" and adjusting for inflated GDP claims—the country did not grow anywhere near the reported 5.0 percent pace last year—the ratio could be, according to my estimate, 375 percent. Higher figures are also plausible.

 

 "China's economy is in a slow grind downwards," Andrew Collier of Hong Kong-based Orient Capital Research and Harvard's Kennedy School told me in the middle of last year.

 

As a result, money has been flooding out of the country. According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, net foreign direct investment fell by $168 billion last year, the biggest drop since 1990. Also, illicit outflows are draining large amounts of cash. "Based on trade flows, capital flight appears to have reached operatic levels," Stevenson-Yang says..

 

Pessimism is pervasive in China, not so much because the country is having a downturn but because people believe Xi Jinping is taking it in the wrong direction. His plan is to export his way out of economic difficulties, but as Nobel laureate Paul Krugman points out, foreign markets are not big enough for Xi's plan to succeed. "We can't absorb," he says. "The world will not accept everything that China wants to export."

 

New American tariffs will give cover to other leaders to also block Chinese goods. Even before Trump took the oath of office, the European Union imposed tariffs on China's electric vehicles and Global South countries such as Indonesia, Brazil, and Turkey imposed tariff and other barriers. Expect more countries to follow.."

 

https://www.newsweek.com/chinas-economy-deep-trouble-opinion-2037177

 

How's this for facts, Paul and Eric?

[Cameroni]

2 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

It has already been stated that export to US is 12% of total export trade. Here is another fact for you. Chinese export to US only account for about 3% of China total GDP. China Q1 was 5.4% higher than forecast while US Q1 decline -2.8% and facing recession. Goldman Sachs forecast that the drag from US trade tensions will cut their China forecast to 4% which is still much higher than US. The tariffs will hurt both sides but China is better positioned to absorb much of the pain by diversification, financial stimulation, subsidies and new export markets. Meanwhile US is isolated economically and staring at high inflation. You really need to take off your blinders and be intellectually rationale. You don’t seem to know much. 

 

 

First of all China's GDP figures are a total lie. It's an open secret that they're about as reliable as  Chinese guarantees of civil liberties. 

 

"China's total-country-debt-to-GDP ratio is extraordinarily high. After taking into account so-called "hidden debt" and adjusting for inflated GDP claims—the country did not grow anywhere near the reported 5.0 percent pace last year—the ratio could be, according to my estimate, 375 percent. Higher figures are also plausible."

 

https://www.newsweek.com/chinas-economy-deep-trouble-opinion-2037177

 

Secondly, if you think 400 billion USD is chump change to China, you're very mistaken. The Chinese will come crawling to the negotiation table.

 

It's not just the US, after all, the EU, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, many other countries have imposed tariffs on China and reduced its export options.

[Captain Flack]

Flame post removed.

 

@Cameroni rule 9. You will not post disruptive or inflammatory messages. You will respect other members and post in a civil manner. Personal attacks, insults or hate speech posted on the  forum or sent by private message are not allowed.

 

[Cameroni]

Indian professor predicts China cannot win the trade war:

 

Trump has forced China into a tariff war that it can neither afford nor win. The timing could not have been worse for Beijing, given its economic fragility.

 

China’s economy is unravelling — not through a sudden crash, but by slow, systemic suffocation. Beneath the façade of 5% growth lies mounting debt and entrenched deflation. The deeper danger isn't immediate collapse but a prolonged zombie-like stagnation that spreads risks across the global economy.

 

In late 2024, China announced that its economy grew by 5% for the year. At first glance, this seemed like good news. The world’s second-largest economy appeared stable and a working engine in uncertain times.

But behind the headlines, the reality is very different. Foreign investors are pulling out. Youth unemployment is rising fast. Big real estate companies are collapsing. And prices, both at factories and in shops, are steadily falling.

 

 

What is further interesting to note is that in 2024, China’s nominal GDP grew just 4.2%, as against the real GDP growth of 5%. Typically, nominal GDP grows faster than real GDP because it includes inflation.

 

Here, a lower nominal GDP suggests that prices are falling across the board, signalling what is known as deflation — something that economists fear much more than inflation, for it represents an utterly stagnating economy.

 

Further to this, independent groups like the Rhodium Group estimate that China’s real growth has likely been between 2.4% and 2.8%, far lower than the official number. And that is with significant government support behind the scenes.

 

 

Beijing, meanwhile, has few viable counters. It imports too little from the U.S. to retaliate meaningfully. Currency devaluation risks capital flight.

Threatening export bans — such as of rare earths and pharma inputs — will further accelerate global diversification. While they are still projecting strength, it masks a shrinking toolbox.

 

This is a trade war China cannot afford and cannot win. The timing could not have been worse.

 

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/chinese-economy-a-fragile-giant-behind-the-roaring-dragon

[Eric Loh]

9 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

First of all China's GDP figures are a total lie. It's an open secret that they're about as reliable as  Chinese guarantees of civil liberties. 

 

"China's total-country-debt-to-GDP ratio is extraordinarily high. After taking into account so-called "hidden debt" and adjusting for inflated GDP claims—the country did not grow anywhere near the reported 5.0 percent pace last year—the ratio could be, according to my estimate, 375 percent. Higher figures are also plausible."

 

https://www.newsweek.com/chinas-economy-deep-trouble-opinion-2037177

 

Secondly, if you think 400 billion USD is chump change to China, you're very mistaken. The Chinese will come crawling to the negotiation table.

 

It's not just the US, after all, the EU, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, many other countries have imposed tariffs on China and reduced its export options.

I will clear up 2 of your points as they are facts. 
 

1. GDP is tracked and analysed by IMF and OCED and private financial houses like Reuters.

 

It will be economically catastrophic to massage critical economic data. 
 

1. Chine’s debt to GDP is half of USA.

 

Rest of your opinion, I am not bother to respond. 

[Cameroni]

9 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

GDP is tracked and analysed by IMF and OCED and private financial houses like Reuters.

 

By our estimates, China’s GDP growth in 2024 improved modestly to around 2.4% to 2.8%,

 

China’s 2024 claim that GDP growth was on track to meet high targets was impossible to reconcile with increasingly frantic efforts to prop up a flagging economy all year long. Collapsing property construction slowed growth to a crawl in 2022 and 2023, and in 2024 the spillover from real estate sidelined local government investment and consumption as well.

By our estimates, China’s GDP growth in 2024 improved modestly to around 2.4% to 2.8%, well below than official claims of nearly 5%. 

 

https://rhg.com/research/after-the-fall-chinas-economy-in-2025/

 

China lies about its GDP figures. Everyone knows it.

 

THE CHINESE THEMSELVES HAVE ADMITTED THEY LIED ABOUT GDP FIGURES:

 

"Local officials from China’s key Northeast region have reportedly admitted that they faked economic data over the past few years when the real numbers were much lower.

Several officials have said they’ve significantly overstated data ranging from fiscal revenue and household income to GDP, and that this was a reason why the drop in the figures appears to have been so dramatic this year, reported China Daily while citing further reports from China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency.

 

“If the past data had not been inflated, the current growth figures would not show such a precipitous fall,” one official was quoted as saying."

 

https://fortune.com/2015/12/14/china-fake-economic-data/

[NoDisplayName]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

 

China exports 400 billion USD worth to the US. 

 

The US has just taken that away. The US has the capacity to shave several points off of China's GDP.

 

So what you are saying is false. The US DOES have the ability to impact China's economic growth figures substantially. 

 

How could it be otherwise  when the  US is China's biggest, most profitable trading market worth 400 billion USD?

 

 

 

How much of that bigly number is actually foreign multinational profit?

 

Foreign companies use China's city-sized industrial zones to assemble and package their products for resale elsewhere, with much of the components being shipped in from Japan, Korea and Taiwan Province.

 

Consider Foxconn assembling their iphones using Chinese labor.  Phones are sold in the US for $1000 which is included in that $400 billion,  yet the Chinese keep only $7-30 per phone depending on model.

 

Loss of the US market, previously about 14% of exports, or around 3% of GDP, now probably around 5% or even less of exports, isn't going to be the majik bullet Trump thinks it will be.

 

Thus his latest brain fart, levying surcharges on any Chinese-built ship docking at US ports, regardless of who owns or operates it.  Add a couple $million per boat, up to 5x/year, plus $hundreds per container, plus $hundreds per vehicle for car carriers.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/17/trump-administration-announces-fees-on-chinese-ships-docking-at-us-ports.html

 

44DD grand chessmaster thinks adding more taxes on the US consumer will bring shipbuilding back to the US.  He simply looks at numbers..........China built more ships last year alone than the USA built since 1945...........so yeah, more taxes on Billy Bob will put all our Starbucks baristas back to work in the shipyards by Christmas.

 

Winning!©

[Cameroni]

40 minutes ago, NoDisplayName said:

.China built more ships last year alone than the USA built since 1945.

 

What you don't realise is that China's overproduction will be a root cause of its downfall.

 

The problem of Chinese overcapacity is real. The capcaity of foreign markets to absorb the giant Chinese overproduction is limited, there is only so much demand for Chinese products.

 

Of course this is a problem not just for exports, in that China will not be able to substitute its 400 billion US market elsewhere so easily, but it is a actually a domestic problem as well. The Chinese have built so many empty condos that they could house 1.4 billion Chinese. As a result the value of homes in China is falling dramatically, and some cities are demolishing these empty condos. 

 

How much sense does that make, to build houses and condos that are then just demolished, without earning rent or making profits?

 

If Britain's problem is underproduction, the Chinese problem of overproduction is also a disadvantage. Not an advantage at all times.

 

Trump has chosen an exceptionally favourable time to take on the Chinese economy. Perfect timing. 

[sscc]

On 4/17/2025 at 11:16 PM, Cameroni said:

 

Actually, you are mistaken on this point. Plenty of people think the US would in fact win a trade war:

 

Why China Can’t Win a Trade War

 

https://time.com/7276876/china-retaliatory-tariffs-us-trade-war/

 

China is highly dependent on foreign investment, its options in the trade war are very limited. All of them have great drawbacks for China.

 

i don't hate China at all. I love China.  I am just being realistic. In a trade war with the US, the Chinese will run out of bullets first. 

 

I am in no way predicting China's economy will collapse, however, a trade war WOULD certainly shave a number of points off of China's GDP. The Chinese would have to "eat bitterness" again.

 

The question is not if China's economy will collapse. It won't. However, we are already seeing how China's economy is losing its lustre, even before the tarriffs. Lower growth, unemployment, real estate crisis, unhealty low birth rates, high dependency on foreign investment, low domestic demand, the problems for China go on and on and on. If the US really would go all out in a trade war, the US would win. China's economy would suffer greatly.

 

Nevertheless, the US economy would also suffer, so it is actually more likely that there will be a trade deal done, which will greatly benefit the US. Either way, the US will win. China will lose.

 

 

Ten days after Trump tariff announcement on April 2, 2025,   

UK Financial Times published an articles : 

"Why China is well-positioned to weather Trump tariff war "

It listed 3 reasons --  two about Trump tariff strategy,  one about China.

 

BTW,  while you listed much argument on China weakness and deficiencies ( some are real, some are not  ),   you wrote Nothing about Trump and his "Yes Men"  naive and  childish way in formulating and implementing the tariff plan ( Economists and financials worldwide said so ).   I suppose you dare not said any to counter your own narrative. 

 

This is what  I called all one-sided and unbalanced view on the issue. 

 

[sscc]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

 

By our estimates, China’s GDP growth in 2024 improved modestly to around 2.4% to 2.8%,

 

China’s 2024 claim that GDP growth was on track to meet high targets was impossible to reconcile with increasingly frantic efforts to prop up a flagging economy all year long. Collapsing property construction slowed growth to a crawl in 2022 and 2023, and in 2024 the spillover from real estate sidelined local government investment and consumption as well.

By our estimates, China’s GDP growth in 2024 improved modestly to around 2.4% to 2.8%, well below than official claims of nearly 5%. 

 

https://rhg.com/research/after-the-fall-chinas-economy-in-2025/

 

China lies about its GDP figures. Everyone knows it.

 

THE CHINESE THEMSELVES HAVE ADMITTED THEY LIED ABOUT GDP FIGURES:

 

"Local officials from China’s key Northeast region have reportedly admitted that they faked economic data over the past few years when the real numbers were much lower.

Several officials have said they’ve significantly overstated data ranging from fiscal revenue and household income to GDP, and that this was a reason why the drop in the figures appears to have been so dramatic this year, reported China Daily while citing further reports from China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency.

 

“If the past data had not been inflated, the current growth figures would not show such a precipitous fall,” one official was quoted as saying."

 

https://fortune.com/2015/12/14/china-fake-economic-data/

 

 

Nowadays the media talked much about China, China, China  of course with reasons behind.

You think every data and everything about CHINA Is unreal and faked and weak and bad, and quickly collapsing  etc,   then why even bother commenting on China as you think China is so weak and completely irrelevant to world economy and geo-politics  ? 

 

You quoted or wrote something  "BY Our estimate",   that is absolutely rubbish.  

[Cameroni]

4 minutes ago, sscc said:

 

 

Nowadays the media talked much about China, China, China  of course with reasons behind.

You think every data and everything about CHINA Is unreal and faked and weak and bad, and quickly collapsing  etc,   then why even bother commenting on China as you think China is so weak and completely irrelevant to world economy and geo-politics  ? 

 

You quoted or wrote something  "BY Our estimate",   that is absolutely rubbish.  

 

Not at all. EVEN THE CHINESE THEMSELVES HAVE ADMITTED THEY LIED about GDP figures:

 

"Local officials from China’s key Northeast region have reportedly admitted that they faked economic data over the past few years when the real numbers were much lower.

 

Several officials have said they’ve significantly overstated data ranging from fiscal revenue and household income to GDP, and that this was a reason why the drop in the figures appears to have been so dramatic this year, reported China Daily while citing further reports from China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency.

 

“If the past data had not been inflated, the current growth figures would not show such a precipitous fall,” one official was quoted as saying."

 

https://fortune.com/2015/12/14/china-fake-economic-data/

[Cameroni]

10 minutes ago, sscc said:

Why China is well-positioned to weather Trump tariff war

 

Indeed, that was, however, only an opinion piece, and a very poorly written one, which clearly lacked substantive economic insight. One of the worst things the FT has ever published, and thoroughly wrong.

[NoDisplayName]

19 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

Of course this is a problem not just for exports, in that China will not be able to substitute its 400 billion US market elsewhere so easily,

 

You don't unnerstan.  It's not a $400 billion market for China.  It's less than half that.  Much of it is goods assembled from Japanese, Korean and Taiwan Province components.  Given the size of those economies, this is more of an attack on them than it is on China.

 

The rest of your screed is repurposed China Observer/China Insight propaganda.

 

Why don'cha post videos of 'ghost cities', fields of abandoned EV's, and wrap up with folks dyin' in the streets.

 

Simply repeating the Falun Gang talking points won't make them all true.  China isn't going to invade Siberia.

 

"But I got another video!"