UK State Pension Forecast - Reliable?

[Upnotover]

I am still over a year from qualifying and my current online forecast shows a full pension entitlement, £230.25.  Can I trust this?  Several years ago I was, they said, 2 years short of contributions which I made up and the forecast did then change to reflect it.   But I'm still only at 33 years, mostly pre-2006/7, and was contracted out at some point.  I'm just wanting to avoid an unpleasant surprise come 2027.

[topt]

8 hours ago, Upnotover said:

I am still over a year from qualifying and my current online forecast shows a full pension entitlement, £230.25.  Can I trust this?  Several years ago I was, they said, 2 years short of contributions which I made up and the forecast did then change to reflect it.   But I'm still only at 33 years, mostly pre-2006/7, and was contracted out at some point.  I'm just wanting to avoid an unpleasant surprise come 2027.

That seems strange as my understanding is you need 35 years for the new full pension.

You haven't got any SERPS or similar in that total by any chance?

Have you been through and actually counted up the full years they have given you as it would not surprise me that one or other is wrong - they have had a lot of issues last couple of years with this.

 

It may be worth giving them a call to check as long as you don't mind a long wait to be answered 

[Upnotover]

8 minutes ago, topt said:

That seems strange as my understanding is you need 35 years for the new full pension.

You haven't got any SERPS or similar in that total by any chance?

Have you been through and actually counted up the full years they have given you as it would not surprise me that one or other is wrong - they have had a lot of issues last couple of years with this.

 

It may be worth giving them a call to check as long as you don't mind a long wait to be answered 

Yes I counted the years.  It used to be 30 then now of course is 35.  I have some idea that some people, like me, who were some how in the midst of the change got some concession.  And as the system did respond to the 2 years I added I'm hoping that it is actually working.  But maybe I'll have a stiff drink one day and make that call.

[nauseus]

9 hours ago, Upnotover said:

I am still over a year from qualifying and my current online forecast shows a full pension entitlement, £230.25.  Can I trust this?  Several years ago I was, they said, 2 years short of contributions which I made up and the forecast did then change to reflect it.   But I'm still only at 33 years, mostly pre-2006/7, and was contracted out at some point.  I'm just wanting to avoid an unpleasant surprise come 2027.

 

Well they do make errors sometimes. Maybe in your favour?

 

But, if in doubt, give them a call.

[nauseus]

9 hours ago, Upnotover said:

I am still over a year from qualifying and my current online forecast shows a full pension entitlement, £230.25.  Can I trust this?  Several years ago I was, they said, 2 years short of contributions which I made up and the forecast did then change to reflect it.   But I'm still only at 33 years, mostly pre-2006/7, and was contracted out at some point.  I'm just wanting to avoid an unpleasant surprise come 2027.

 

I read this again. It looks OK. If you topped up the 2 years that HMRC said were missing, then you are on track for the minimum (full pension) qualifying 35 years at 67? So, presently your years show as 33 (full), as that is what you actually have right now, but it should change to 34 soon. The forecast assumes that these final two years' contributions will be paid in full and so predicts the full pension amount for you when you become sixty whatever it is? 

[Upnotover]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

 

I read this again. It looks OK. If you topped up the 2 years that HMRC said were missing, then you are on track for the minimum qualifying 35 years at 67?. So, presently your years show 33 (full) as that is what you have now but it should change to 4 soon. The forecast assumes that these final two years' contributions will be paid in full and so predicts the full pension amount for you when you become sixty whatever it is? 

Nope.  With the 2 added years I got to 33.  And I don't believe the forecast considers future payments, only those up till now.  But I could be wrong.

[topt]

3 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

I read this again. It looks OK. If you topped up the 2 years that HMRC said were missing, then you are on track for the minimum qualifying 35 years at 67?. So, presently your years show as 33 (full), as that is what you actually have right now, but it should change to 34 soon. The forecast assumes that these final two years' contributions will be paid in full and so predicts the full pension amount for you when you become sixty whatever it is? 

Yes I was thinking that but the "forecast" figure should show that he needs 2 more years to make the full pension shown - or that is how I remember it.

[Upnotover]

1 minute ago, topt said:

Yes I was thinking that but the "forecast" figure should show that he needs 2 more years to make the full pension shown - or that is how I remember it.

But it doesn't.  That's why I am wondering.

[nauseus]

Just now, topt said:

Yes I was thinking that but the "forecast" figure should show that he needs 2 more years to make the full pension shown - or that is how I remember it.

 

I edited my post but no matter. The forecast indicates a full pension so that's good. It looks like the two years top up must have been received and recorded OK.

[topt]

Just now, Upnotover said:

But it doesn't.  That's why I am wondering.

Agreed, seems to be a conundrum. This article clearly states you need 35 years for the "new" full state pension amount - 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-11680503/Delaying-state-pension-Steve-Webbs-five-golden-rules.html?ico=mol_desktop_money-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Findex.html

 

I may post it as a separate topic as potentially useful to those considering deferring - however it does not cover the issue of frozen pensions and deferring.......

[Upnotover]

7 minutes ago, topt said:

Yes I was thinking that but the "forecast" figure should show that he needs 2 more years to make the full pension shown - or that is how I remember it.

Yes it did that before, not now  And I did add those 2 years.  But it never says anything about future contributions.

[GanDoonToonPet]

Can you post this part of your pension forecast?

 

[Upnotover]

2 minutes ago, GanDoonToonPet said:

Can you post this part of your pension forecast?

 

Haha, I wish I was that young.  No.  I get this.....

[nauseus]

28 minutes ago, Upnotover said:

Yes it did that before, not now  And I did add those 2 years.  But it never says anything about future contributions.

 

Not now because you paid in already. You won't be able to contribute more, I think.

[Upnotover]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

 

Not now because you paid in already. You won't be able to contribute more, I think.

Good.  I don't want to.  I just want to be sure I get my "forecast" pension.

[nauseus]

2 minutes ago, Upnotover said:

Good.  I don't want to.  I just want to be sure I get my "forecast" pension.

 

Looks like you're good as long as you contribute until Jan 27.

[Upnotover]

4 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

Looks like you're good as long as you contribute until Jan 27.

Yes.  But that is the point.  I haven't contributed since 2022 and don't want to!

[GanDoonToonPet]

20 minutes ago, Upnotover said:

Haha, I wish I was that young.  No.  I get this.....

 

 

Based on that and my corresponding sections above, your forecast is the amount you receive 'if you contribute until [retirement date]'.

 

As long as you pay for the next 2 years you should get the full pension. Obviously those can't shown on your NI record yet. Are the shortfall years you paid showing as full on your NI record?

[nauseus]

12 minutes ago, Upnotover said:

Yes.  But that is the point.  I haven't contributed since 2022 and don't want to!

 

 

OK then. From your previous posts I was assuming that you were still chipping in.

 

If your checks have all indicated that you get the full whack since 2022 then I would be confident.

 

But you can call them, as I said.

 

Good luck. 

[GanDoonToonPet]

14 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

Looks like you're good as long as you contribute until Jan 27.

 

Surely the tax year 2026 to 2027 won't add anything to his pension as it won't be a full tax year?

 

I think he still needs to contribute for the years 2024 to 2025 and 2025 to 2026 to receive the full pension as his forecast states that it is based on his 'National Insurance record up to 5 April 2024'

[NotEinstein]

I had 27 years paid (until 2002 - not worked since) and they told me I needed to top up 3 years, which I did (chose 2006-2008). I activated my claim last month so I will be receiving the 'full state pension' in 3 months.

[topt]

1 hour ago, Upnotover said:

No.  I get this.....

My online page says exactly the same. No mention now of no. of years anywhere as far as I can see so are you getting the 33 from your own count?

If so I would ignore it and relax - and have a drink to celebrate  

[piston broke]

2 hours ago, Upnotover said:

Nope.  With the 2 added years I got to 33.  And I don't believe the forecast considers future payments, only those up till now.  But I could be wrong.

 

you need 35 years - so 2 to "top up" - you can go back up to 6 years - if you ring the future pensions people, they will tell you what years represent the best vlaue and they will tell you how to pay ...

 

it's a good idea to set up a "Gateway" account, then you can see what years you have paid and your actual forecast - failing that ring them - i found them very helpful and got through quickly ....

 

once i transferred the "top up" money, it took about 2 months for it to be added to my account ...

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, NotEinstein said:

I had 27 years paid (until 2002 - not worked since) and they told me I needed to top up 3 years, which I did (chose 2006-2008). I activated my claim last month so I will be receiving the 'full state pension' in 3 months.

that's the old pension system

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, GanDoonToonPet said:

 

Surely the tax year 2026 to 2027 won't add anything to his pension as it won't be a full tax year?

 

I think he still needs to contribute for the years 2024 to 2025 and 2025 to 2026 to receive the full pension as his forecast states that it is based on his 'National Insurance record up to 5 April 2024'

 

He's OK as he is.

[Upnotover]

Thanks for all the replies.  I think my conclusion is that I'm OK with no further contributions.  Exactly why I needed 33 years is somewhat of a mystery but I think it is because my 31 years of employee NI contributions were all paid under the old system, partially contracted out.

[treetops]

11 hours ago, Upnotover said:

Thanks for all the replies.  I think my conclusion is that I'm OK with no further contributions.  Exactly why I needed 33 years is somewhat of a mystery but I think it is because my 31 years of employee NI contributions were all paid under the old system, partially contracted out.

 

The 35 years requirement only fully applies to those starting employment post 2016.  For those in the middle, as it were they could be lower.  I've seen reports of as little as 26 or 27 years but still entitled to the full whack due to contributions made and the calculations done in 2016.