On the precipice of disaster: Measles may be endemic in 25 years if vaccine uptake stays low

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

 

"Without a 5% higher measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination rate, measles may revert to endemicity in the United States within 25 years, while a 10% decline in vaccination could lead to 11.1 million cases of the highly contagious illness in that timeframe, according to predictions from a simulation model published today in JAMA. 

 

Also today, the World Health Organization (WHO); UNICEF; and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance warn that burgeoning outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases threaten to reverse years of progress.

...

"Widespread childhood vaccination has eliminated many infectious diseases in the US," the study authors wrote. "However, vaccination rates are declining, and there are ongoing policy debates to reduce the childhood vaccine schedule, which may risk reemergence of previously eliminated infectious diseases."

 

(more)

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/measles/precipice-disaster-measles-may-be-endemic-25-years-if-vaccine-uptake-stays-low-model

 

 

[wasabi]

Vaccines are imperfect but the level of conspiracies surrounding them are far worse than any danger a vaccine possesses. 

[johng]

6 minutes ago, wasabi said:

the level of conspiracies surrounding them are far worse than any danger a vaccine possesses.

 

Says you and  Albert Bourla.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The current measles vaccine (standard two doses) is 97% effective in preventing the disease, and confers protection for life. That's a pretty good deal for youngsters who need that protection.

 

"Most people get the MMR vaccine as children. It’s given in two shots, the first typically when a child is between 12 and 15 months of age, and the second when they are 4 to 6 years old. It’s a live vaccine, meaning that it contains a small, weakened dose of the virus.

 

No vaccine is 100% effective against measles, but two MMR shots are 97% effective. (Two shots are 88% effective against mumps, and a single shot is 97% effective against rubella.) Most people who are vaccinated will never get the measles; although a small percentage have “breakthrough” cases, the symptoms are usually mild.

 

The MMR vaccine is also safe, according to the CDC, which notes that most people have no side effects. If side effects do occur, the most common are soreness at the vaccination site, fever, and pain and stiffness in the joints.

 

https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/should-you-get-a-measles-vaccine-booster

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

More people encountering false information

 

"Vaccine hesitancy is fueled partly by misinformation about measles and the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine. A recent KFF poll shows most adults and parents have encountered false claims about the vaccine, particularly the discredited autism link.

 

High-profile figures, including HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., have amplified some of these myths, creating confusion about reliable health information. Public health experts warn this misinformation undermines vaccine confidence, contributing to declining immunization rates and increasing future outbreak risks."

Health Security Decoded

Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

 

https://myemail.constantcontact.com/Health-Security-Decoded---April-24--2025.html?soid=1107826135286&aid=wqIATCnpVig

 

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Millions of U.S. measles cases forecast over 25 years if shots decline

Measles, once virtually wiped out in the United States, could become commonplace again if declining vaccination rates continue, a new model shows.

 

April 24, 2025

 

"The United States faces millions of measles cases over the next 25 years if vaccination rates for the disease drop 10 percent, according to new research published Thursday.

 

No change in the current vaccination rate would result in hundreds of thousands of measles cases over the same period, according to a mathematical model produced by a team of Stanford University researchers.

 

“Our country is on a tipping point for measles to once again become a common household disease,” said Nathan Lo, a Stanford physician and author of the study published in the medical journal JAMA."

 

(more)

 

Washington Post

https://archive.ph/Zk7fq