Economy Thai Baht Wobbles Amid Stronger US Dollar and Trade Truce

[snoop1130]

File photo for reference only

 

The Thai baht faces renewed pressure as it teeters against a surging US dollar this week, spurred by a temporary pause in the US-China tariff war. Currency analysts anticipate the baht could decline to 33.80 against the dollar following fluctuations in global market sentiment.

 

Roong Sanguanruang, Senior VP for Global Markets Planning at Bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri), highlighted the baht's susceptibility to various factors, notably the aftermath of the recent trade agreement. "We expect the baht to hover between 33.00 and 33.80 this week. The outlook is still shaky, and volatility remains high," Roong cautioned.

 

The ceasefire between Washington and Beijing, effective from May 11, has temporarily eased tariffs for a 90-day period. The US will reduce duties on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will lower its tariffs on American imports from 125% to 10%. This truce has strengthened both the US dollar and the Chinese yuan, but the baht has lagged behind, partly due to falling global gold prices, which have influenced the Thai currency's trajectory. Currently, gold trades at about US$3,200 an ounce or approximately 115,200 baht.

 

"The baht tends to track gold more closely than other currencies," explained Roong. Following the truce, the baht opened on Monday at 33.38 per dollar, dropping sharply from Friday’s close of 33.02, breaking key resistance at 33.30 and approaching the 33.50 mark, according to Krungthai Bank’s Global Markets Division.

 

Poon Panitchpibun, a strategist at Krungthai Global Markets, noted that the stronger dollar is buoyed by improved risk sentiment and optimism about the US economy. "The temporary US-China deal has eased fears of a deep US slowdown and reduced the probability of steep interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve," Poon added.

 

Current investor expectations now predict only two rate cuts in 2023, with some experts shifting their forecast for a possible July cut to as late as December. Factors including a hawkish Federal Reserve, encouraging US economic data, and Thailand's vulnerable economy further suggest a weakening baht, with Poon projecting it will trade between 32.95 and 33.75 over the week.

 

In summary, the baht appears to be under significant strain, influenced by strong external forces and an even more powerful US dollar. As these dynamics unfold, the Thai currency is likely to struggle in the near future.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from The Thaiger 2025-05-14

 

 

[ozz1]

Still too high against a lot of countries no good for tourism or exports hopefully they will wake up about that

[Pouatchee]

So 33.8 is nos considered high?

I guess people got used ho a crap exchange rate and now whenever it reaches a level that is a ghost of its former people vome up eith terms like WOBBLE to describe what was once the norm

[jas007]

Stories like these blow my mind.  Thai baht "under pressure"? LOL.  

 

A few baht in either direction is just noise.  

 

Wake me up if the change rate gets below 29 baht to the US dollar.  Hint: it's not going to happen. 

[KhunLA]

Yep ... 33 - 35 is high for me, as I've stated too many time, 30-35 is the range for the past 18+ years, and rarely higher or lower.  Biden's 4 yrs was very nice, but will be a long time before, or even if that happens again.

 

[KhunLA]

50 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Stories like these blow my mind.  Thai baht "under pressure"? LOL.  

 

A few baht in either direction is just noise.  

 

Wake me up if the change rate gets below 29 baht to the US dollar.  Hint: it's not going to happen. 

That's about the lowest Trump 1 took it last time.   Down to ~29.7, and came in office about the same last time also, at 35.4.   This time started Trump 2 at 34 🙄

 

Also not expecting much of COLA, as averaged only 1.9 a year during Trump 1.

[jas007]

1 hour ago, KhunLA said:

That's about the lowest Trump 1 took it last time.   Down to ~29.7, and came in office about the same last time also, at 35.4.   This time started Trump 2 at 34 🙄

 

Also not expecting much of COLA, as averaged only 1.9 a year during Trump 1.

It's early yet, but you're probably right.  

 

I definitely won't be complaining about a little deflation, though.  

[kevin612]

Under 34, Thai baht is consider as strong baht. 34 and above is good rate 

[Srikcir]

Thailand the Hub of Wobbles.

[lou norman]

13 hours ago, jas007 said:

Stories like these blow my mind.  Thai baht "under pressure"? LOL.  

 

A few baht in either direction is just noise.  

 

Wake me up if the change rate gets below 29 baht to the US dollar.  Hint: it's not going to happen. 

October 2013 29.25 baht per USD. Close but no cigar!

[spidermike007]

1% is not what anyone would define as a wobble. It is more like a tiny blip. Granted, a blip in the right direction. But, still a nothing. 

[jcmj]

Bring it to 35 and I’ll be happy again. It’ll get there eventually. 

[digger70]

Thai Baht Wobbles Amid Stronger US Dollar and Trade Truce

 

Nah,  All talk /speculations.

Just now i looked for the AUS $ same today as 19 Dec 2024