Tories Slide to Fourth as Reform and Lib Dems Surge in New Poll Blow

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Tories Slide to Fourth as Reform and Lib Dems Surge in New Poll Blow

 

The Conservative Party has fallen to its lowest poll rating since the end of Theresa May’s premiership, with support plummeting to just 16 percent, placing the party behind not only Labour and Reform UK but now also the Liberal Democrats. The YouGov survey for The Times revealed the Tories had slipped into fourth place—an unprecedented low not seen since the fraught days of 2019 when Theresa May was battling to pass her Brexit deal through Parliament.

 

Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has continued its dramatic ascent, now polling at 29 percent, widening its lead over Labour by seven points. Labour remains in second place, while the Liberal Democrats have surged into third with 17 percent, narrowly overtaking the Conservatives. The Green Party follows closely behind with 10 percent.

 

The findings paint a grim picture for Kemi Badenoch, one of the prominent figures attempting to restore cohesion and credibility to the fractured Conservative Party. This latest data underscores the scale of the challenge she faces, with the electorate increasingly turning away from the Tories toward alternative parties on both the right and center.

 

A significant part of this decline can be attributed to voter defection. One-third—33 percent—of those who backed the Conservatives in the last general election now say they intend to vote for Reform UK. Even Labour is losing some ground to Farage’s party, with 9 percent of its 2019 voters indicating support for Reform. The Liberal Democrats have also made notable gains across both camps, attracting 7 percent of former Tory voters and 17 percent of Labour’s 2019 supporters. Meanwhile, 10 percent of Labour’s base is now leaning towards the Greens.

 

The poll's release coincided with internal unrest within the Labour Party. At a private meeting of the parliamentary party on Monday night, some MPs raised concerns with Sir Keir Starmer over the government's positions on immigration, winter fuel payments, and welfare cuts. In response, the Prime Minister defended his firm stance on migration, telling MPs, “The Conservatives are not our principal opponent. Reform are our main rivals for power.” He added that Labour had a “moral responsibility to make sure Farage never wins” and promised the party would be more vocal about its achievements, particularly in areas such as employment and the cost of living.

 

For the Tories, the current situation bears unsettling similarities to the political climate of June 2019. Then, the Brexit Party—Reform’s predecessor—was riding high at 26 percent, ahead of the Lib Dems on 22 percent, Labour on 19 percent, and the Conservatives languishing at 17 percent. That period of crisis ultimately led to May’s resignation and the rise of Boris Johnson, who unified the party under a clear Brexit message and led them to a decisive election victory in December 2019.

 

But this time, both Conservative and Labour strategists see a potentially more lasting threat. Reform UK’s strong showing in the local elections earlier this month, including seizing control of six councils from the Conservatives and beating Labour in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election, has added credibility to the party’s national ambitions. Since January, Reform’s support has climbed steadily from 22 percent to 29 percent, driven by growing disillusionment with both of the main parties.

 

Although the Lib Dems’ narrow lead over the Conservatives remains within the margin of error, it has nonetheless set off alarm bells within Tory HQ. Party strategists now face the delicate task of addressing the surge in Reform support without alienating voters in traditionally Tory, liberal-leaning regions known as the “Blue Wall,” where concerns over issues like immigration are less pronounced.

 

As support continues to shift, the data points not just to a momentary dip for the Conservatives, but to an increasingly fragmented political landscape in which voter loyalty is rapidly eroding, and new contenders are shaping the future of British politics.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from The Times  2025-05-22

 

 

[JonnyF]

Badenoch has been disappointing.

 

I suspect she will be replaced with Jenrick. 

 

I'd rather see The Tories disband and Jenrick go to Reform. Consolidate the right of centre vote. We cannot risk Labour slithering into another term on the basis of a split right wing vote. Britain wouldn't survive. 

[The Cyclist]

as I posted on another thread.

 

Both the Tories and Labour are toast for the foreseeable future.

 

 

[frank83628]

Is that correct, Labour at 13%?

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, frank83628 said:

Is that correct, Labour at 13%?

 

Very doubtful.

 

Sounds way too high.

[Bkk Brian]

3 hours ago, frank83628 said:

Is that correct, Labour at 13%?

The Labour Gov is on a massive 14% approval rating as of the 19th May............lol

 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/government-approval

[brewsterbudgen]

3 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

as I posted on another thread.

 

Both the Tories and Labour are toast for the foreseeable future.

 

 

 

Absolutely.  Fortunately there's time before the next election for the nation to come to its senses!

[Summerinsiam]

The support for reform is nothing but a protest vote and they will never form a government. If they did it would be a disaster, as they are one-trick ponies with no real policies, who have absolutely no idea how to deal with the myriad domestic and international problems that the UK faces. Farage is a clever politician, but not a serious prospect for actual governance. After all its easy to snipe from the sidelines in opposition, without having to make real decisions and trade-offs.

[blazes]

Surely, that 10% figure for the Greens is way too high.

Is the country that impoverished intellectually???

[candide]

I see two trends.

 

One is that parties who are, or have been governing, are sanctioned. A phenomenon which seems to be generalised accross countries.

 

The other is that the two parties benefitting from vote intent transfers are the two parties showing a clear positioning re. Brexit, while the two parties known for including both anti- and pro-brexit factions are declining. 

 

[The Cyclist]

1 hour ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

Absolutely.  Fortunately there's time before the next election for the nation to come to its senses!

 

An interesting response ?
 

In what way do you mean the Nation to come to its senses ?

[The Cyclist]

2 hours ago, Summerinsiam said:

The support for reform is nothing but a protest vote and they will never form a government.

 

That remains to be seen and we will have an answer at the next GE

 

2 hours ago, Summerinsiam said:

If they did it would be a disaster,

 

Any more of a disaster than Tories or Labour who have presided over the UK's decline spanning the last 30 years or so.

 

Even Einstein realised doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result was madness.

[blazes]

6 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

 

That remains to be seen and we will have an answer at the next GE

 

 

Any more of a disaster than Tories or Labour who have presided over the UK's decline spanning the last 30 years or so.

 

 

 

30???? That's very generous.  More like 80, I'd say, with maybe a hiccup in the Thatcher era.

[riclag]

13 hours ago, frank83628 said:

Is that correct, Labour at 13%?

13 % - When people realize the far left are beyond the pale! While Starmer is desperately trying to pivot towards the center.