File photo for reference only

 

Thailand is in the final stage of crucial trade negotiations with the United States, aiming for a competitive tariff rate before the deadline on 1 August. With ASEAN neighbours like Vietnam and Indonesia already striking favourable deals, Thailand is under pressure to secure similar terms.

 

Regional Competition Intensifies

 

Vietnam and Indonesia have both secured tariffs with the US at 20% and 19%, respectively. Recently, US President Donald Trump reduced Japan's tariffs from 25% to 15%, following agreements to open Japanese markets for American goods, an arrangement forecasted to create numerous jobs in the US. Meanwhile, the Philippines also reached a deal at 19%, enhancing US military cooperation and market access.

 

Thailand's Negotiation Landscape

 

Thailand has made considerable efforts, submitting a final proposal to the US. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira revealed that 90% of Thailand’s proposal has been reviewed by the US, with some counter-proposals in play. Thailand is aiming to reduce its tariff from 36% in line with regional competitors.

 

Pichai stated, "We hope the US will reduce the tariff to match regional rates." He remains optimistic that a resolution will be reached before the upcoming deadline.

 

Economic Implications

 

The SCB Economic Intelligence Centre (SCBEIC) has outlined three potential outcomes:

 

• No Tax Reduction: If tariffs remain at 36%, Thailand’s GDP growth may slow to 1.1% in 2025 and 0.4% in 2026.
• Partial Reduction: A reduced tariff of 25% would improve growth slightly to 1.5% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.
• Competitive Rate: Achieving a 23% tariff could see GDP growth at 1.5% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026.

 

Investment Considerations

 

Poj Aramwatananont of the Thai Chamber of Commerce noted that Japan's tariff agreement is unlikely to significantly impact Thailand, as other investment factors such as readiness, cost, and infrastructure play a pivotal role.

 

Nonarit Bisonyabut from the Thailand Development Research Institute highlighted that reversing investment decisions is complex and costly. He remarked that Japan’s planned $500 billion investment in the US might not immediately affect Thailand’s foreign direct investment (FDI), depending on sector alignments.

Awaiting the Final Verdict

 

Thailand’s push for a favourable tax rate is backed by strategic discussions with the US Trade Representative. As several ASEAN countries have secured lower tariffs, Thailand is keen to finalise a deal that aligns with regional standards.

 

With the deadline looming, Thai businesses remain cautious, delaying new investments until a clear decision emerges. As Pichai prepares for further talks this week, hopes are high that a conclusive agreement will soon be reached, potentially reshaping Thailand's economic trajectory and strengthening its trade relations with the US.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from The Nation 2025-07-24

 

 

why worry? havent they heard? tourism is on the rise and will save the day?  555

 

🙄

Don't worry, all of the Trump tariff nonsense will be going away. Just sit back and enjoy a taco.

TACO  to the rescue.

4 minutes ago, Pouatchee said:

why worry? havent they heard? tourism is on the rise and will save the day?  555

 

🙄

 

 

All out war with Cambodia will do wonders for TATs figures.

Thailand can't make a deal without China's approval. Time for the US to cut its losses with the Thais. I'd rather see a complete pivot to the Philippines, securing Filipino prosperity, investment, and military protection. That is a bilateral success story for both countries, something Thailand will never be able to manage with the US.

25 minutes ago, John Drake said:

Thailand can't make a deal without China's approval. Time for the US to cut its losses with the Thais. I'd rather see a complete pivot to the Philippines, securing Filipino prosperity, investment, and military protection. That is a bilateral success story for both countries, something Thailand will never be able to manage with the US.

 

I don't think the Filipinos have it in them. There's something in the culture that holds them back from being competent at anything or rising above their current circumstances.  They're hard workers but they rarely rise to the top. 

11 hours ago, John Drake said:

Thailand can't make a deal without China's approval. Time for the US to cut its losses with the Thais. I'd rather see a complete pivot to the Philippines, securing Filipino prosperity, investment, and military protection. That is a bilateral success story for both countries, something Thailand will never be able to manage with the US.

The Pi has had many treaties with the US for a century now. Thailand and the US is purely a relationship of convenience. Few special treaties, and the Amity treaty is barely remembered nor acknowledged.

 

Thailand lives on its own planet. The government truly considers itself the center of the world. 

14 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Pichai stated, "We hope the US will reduce the tariff

Hope is not a plan.   

 

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.  

8 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Few special treaties, and the Amity treaty is barely remembered nor acknowledged.

 

Yup.  The Treaty of Amity and FCPA cancel each other out.  We can own the business, but can't really operate without violating FCPA.

 

13 hours ago, cjinchiangrai said:

Don't worry, all of the Trump tariff nonsense will be going away. Just sit back and enjoy a taco.

 

I don't think so.

14 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thailand is in the final stage of crucial trade negotiations with the United States, aiming for a competitive tariff rate before the deadline on 1 August. With ASEAN neighbours like Vietnam and Indonesia already striking favourable deals, Thailand is under pressure to secure similar terms.

It can seek all it wants. Thailands days of playing the game just came to an end.

6 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

Yup.  The Treaty of Amity and FCPA cancel each other out.  We can own the business, but can't really operate without violating FCPA.

 

It would be in Thailand's best interest to do what a lot of other nations are doing, and simply look for alternative markets to the US. Any country that shuns the US is showing a great deal of intelligence at this point. Who needs allies that you can't depend upon? 

7 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

It would be in Thailand's best interest to do what a lot of other nations are doing, and simply look for alternative markets to the US. Any country that shuns the US is showing a great deal of intelligence at this point. Who needs allies that you can't depend upon? 

 

That's the thing about trade.  You don't choose your customers.  They choose you.  Or not, as many countries are now discovering.

 

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

It would be in Thailand's best interest to do what a lot of other nations are doing, and simply look for alternative markets to the US. Any country that shuns the US is showing a great deal of intelligence at this point. Who needs allies that you can't depend upon? 

Really? Alternative markets that will buy significantly less and probably impose even higher tariffs and protectionist measures? 

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

It would be in Thailand's best interest to do what a lot of other nations are doing, and simply look for alternative markets to the US. Any country that shuns the US is showing a great deal of intelligence at this point. Who needs allies that you can't depend upon? 

 

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

It would be in Thailand's best interest to do what a lot of other nations are doing, and simply look for alternative markets to the US. Any country that shuns the US is showing a great deal of intelligence at this point. Who needs allies that you can't depend upon? 

it would be in Thailands BEST interest to open up a permanent US Navel Base ..   I'd bet on 10% tariff rates then

6 hours ago, runamok27 said:

Really? Alternative markets that will buy significantly less and probably impose even higher tariffs and protectionist measures? 

Right. It’s not like Thailand was only trying to sell their goods to the USA. Bringing in new customers will cost Thailand.

I hope that people around the world boycott Trumps tariffs.

If we all do not fly to the USA or buy USA made products, maybe the people of America will tell Trump

to smarten up. No one likes a bully.

I do not plan to visit anywhere in the USA while Trump is the president..

That is my boycott.

27 minutes ago, Stargeezr said:

I hope that people around the world boycott Trumps tariffs.

If we all do not fly to the USA or buy USA made products, maybe the people of America will tell Trump

to smarten up. No one likes a bully.

I do not plan to visit anywhere in the USA while Trump is the president..

That is my boycott.

 

Canadians have all but stopped going to the US and American liquor has been removed from government liquor stores in some provinces. It's hitting American border towns very hard.  More innocent people suffering for the asinine policies of a central government. Canadian corporations are whipping up nationalism and reaping the profits, as Canadians are largely stupid and easily manipulated. 

The courts just cancelled all of Trumps tariffs as unconstitutional. Have another taco.

On 7/25/2025 at 11:43 AM, Luuk Chaai said:

 

it would be in Thailands BEST interest to open up a permanent US Navel Base ..   I'd bet on 10% tariff rates then

Why would that be in Thailand's best interest?

1 minute ago, billd766 said:

Why would that be in Thailand's best interest?

 

Maybe he meant Pattaya's best interests?

5 hours ago, billd766 said:

Why would that be in Thailand's best interest?

stops the chinese dead in their tracks, 

and I would bet it would stop the insurgents in the south as well

US adds state of the art defense systems 

Thailand goes to the front of the favorite nation line no or almost no tariff issues

plenty of US dollars going into local economy

and plenty of "hansum men"

 

11 hours ago, cjinchiangrai said:

The courts just cancelled all of Trumps tariffs as unconstitutional. Have another taco.

 

Are you talking about the decision back in May that was stayed by an appeals court?

 

The tariffs are alive and well, for the time being.