Analysis Rising Tensions: Is Full-Scale War Looming on Thailand-Cambodia Border?

[Geoff914]

8 minutes ago, kwilco said:

Do you have the figures for that?

AFAIA – the Cambodian economy is an open market system with rapid growth, particularly in the last decade, driven by tourism, manufacturing, real estate, and construction. It is, of course, marred by all-pervading corruption, but this is not that different from Thailand – both have repressive and undemocratic regimes. Tourism is a key driver in both economies: in Cambodia, nearly 10% but in Thailand, it represents a huge 20% – so they have much more to lose.

You are right, I got it wrong. It is 60% of GDP https://www.asiafinancial.com/cambodian-scam-centres-straining-ties-with-states-near-and-far

[kwilco]

2 minutes ago, Geoff914 said:

You are right, I got it wrong. It is 60% of GDP https://www.asiafinancial.com/cambodian-scam-centres-straining-ties-with-states-near-and-far

It is in general agreed that the black economy is about 50 to 60% size of the "legal:" economy. but how do you think this will influence the outcome of the current Thai/Cambodian conflict?

[Geoff914]

7 minutes ago, kwilco said:

It is in general agreed that the black economy is about 50 to 60% size of the "legal:" economy. but how do you think this will influence the outcome of the current Thai/Cambodian conflict?

I didn't say that it would. I said Cambodia would have more to lose than Thailand would lose in tourist revenues if the World put pressure on Cambodia to close the scam centres. Border dispute or not pressure should be put on Cambodia to close the scam centres.

[kwilco]

20 minutes ago, Geoff914 said:

I didn't say that it would. I said Cambodia would have more to lose than Thailand would lose in tourist revenues if the World put pressure on Cambodia to close the scam centres. Border dispute or not pressure should be put on Cambodia to close the scam centres.

"If international pressure to close the scam centres was brought onto Cambodia, that would be 40% of its GDP gone overnight. Who has the most to lose here, Thailand or Cambodia?" -

So how do you think it affects the current conflict?

I think you're confusing things you don't like with actual factors that affect the conflict

[Burma Bill]

1 hour ago, kwilco said:

Thailand has a lot to lose here – if the conflict extends to Koh Kood and the Eastern Gulf, it will severely impact tourism. Apparently, visitor numbers are down on this time last year, and all over social media are people asking if it's safe to go to Thailand.

Thailand cannot afford this to go on any longer

  

 I totally agree, a disastrous state of affairs for TAT, whilst across the border in Cambodia (27 July 2025)

 

PHNOM PENH, July 27 (Xinhua) -- Cambodia has reported a 50.7-percent year-on-year increase in the number of Chinese tourists in the first half of 2025, said the Ministry of Tourism's latest report released on Saturday.

 

https://english.news.cn/20250727/548e43fb475148129fce9c2334001b30/c.html

[Geoff914]

Just now, kwilco said:

"If international pressure to close the scam centres was brought onto Cambodia, that would be 40% of its GDP gone overnight. Who has the most to lose here, Thailand or Cambodia?" -

So how do you think it affects the current conflict?

How what affects the current conflict. If you have something to say then say it. You were the one starting the conversation about the conflict affecting Thailand's tourist numbers. I expanded it to Cambodia's criminal activities and the fact that Cambodia had far more to lose.

[Geoff914]

3 minutes ago, Burma Bill said:

  

 I totally agree, a disastrous state of affairs for TAT, whilst across the border in Cambodia (27 July 2025)

 

PHNOM PENH, July 27 (Xinhua) -- Cambodia has reported a 50.7-percent year-on-year increase in the number of Chinese tourists in the first half of 2025, said the Ministry of Tourism's latest report released on Saturday.

 

https://english.news.cn/20250727/548e43fb475148129fce9c2334001b30/c.html

Yes everybody knows that Thailand needs to diversify into other things. Scam centres seems to be a profitable business to get into. 

[Mr Meeseeks]

6 minutes ago, Geoff914 said:

Yes everybody knows that Thailand needs to diversify into other things. Scam centres seems to be a profitable business to get into. 

Thailand already profited massively from the scam call centres and in the 80’s, 90’s and early 2000’s Bangkok was the hub.

 

All the big bars on Sukhumvit were built on Boiler Room money. 

Millions stolen from British and Aussie pensioners.

 

Perpetrated by Aussies, Brits and Yanks who were never properly punished as they paid off, and thus were protected by the Thai authorities. 

[newbee2022]

On 7/25/2025 at 7:06 AM, ravip said:

I sincerely hope this fight will not escalate any more.

The Guardian says this:

 

The bitter feud fuelling the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia | Cambodia | The Guardian https://share.google/XHerfbVjZrcb3QYEI

[Geoff914]

9 hours ago, kwilco said:

 I think they are – the borders we live in were largely set up in the 19th and early 20th centuries by Western colonial powers – their influence is very much on the wane thanks to people like Trump and there is likely to be worldwide criticism as such

So Tibet, ongoing border disputes with India, the 9 dash line and the South China Sea, Taiwan. Correct me if I am wrong but didn't non colonial occupied Siam held large swathes of Laos and Cambodia when the French came along.

Hardly surprising established borders is a European/American thing. It came with the techniques for surveying. Seems to me that agreed borders have meant that has been more peace since the 19th century not less. It seems that the French just re-established the correct Cambodian borders.

"In the 19th century, Cambodia's borders were heavily influenced by the expansionist policies of Siam and Vietnam, leading to a period of dual vassalage and territorial disputes. Ultimately, Cambodia became a French protectorate in 1863 to safeguard its remaining territory from further encroachment. 

Elaboration:

• Dual Vassalage:

  Cambodia found itself caught between the competing powers of Siam and Vietnam, becoming a tributary state to both. This meant the Cambodian monarchy was obligated to pay tribute and acknowledge the authority of both regional powers, weakening its sovereignty. 

  Territorial Losses:

• Both Siam and Vietnam exerted pressure on Cambodia, annexing territories and interfering in internal affairs. This resulted in the loss of significant portions of Cambodian territory, particularly in the Mekong Delta region to Vietnam. 

   

[Geoff914]

A cease fire has been mediated in Malaysia. I don't have a link

[Burma Bill]

25 minutes ago, Geoff914 said:

A cease fire has been mediated in Malaysia. I don't have a link

 

Yes, a ceasefire from midnight (GMT) tonight 28 July 2025:-

 

Good news indeed to stop further Siamese Military aggression and land grabbing.

 

Malaysian leader Anwar Ibrahim says Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to an “immediate and unconditional” ceasefire in an urgent effort to resolve deadly border clashes.

Thailand’s acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai and Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Manet met on Monday for the ceasefire talks at Anwar’s official residence in Malaysia’s administrative capital of Putrajaya.

Anwar said that US President Donald Trump as well as the Chinese leadership were in close contact with the leaders of both countries as well as Malaysia “to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict”.

Anwar said both Cambodia and Thailand have agreed to a ceasefire effective midnight (1200 GMT) of July 28 in both countries.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/28/thailand-cambodia-border-clashes-continue-before-malaysia-ceasefire-talks

[Geoff914]

8 minutes ago, Burma Bill said:

 

 

 

Good news indeed to stop further Siamese Military aggression.

 

 

Then you go and spoil it.

 

[Burma Bill]

1 minute ago, Geoff914 said:

Then you go and spoil it.

 

With respect, not at all! 

I live in Cambodia and support its people. I have travelled into the conflict zones on several occasions (during peacetime)  knowing what land Thailand has already illegally annexed over past years!

[Geoff914]

3 minutes ago, Burma Bill said:

With respect, not at all! 

I live in Cambodia and support its people. I have travelled into the conflict zones on several occasions (during peacetime)  knowing what land Thailand has already illegally annexed over past years!

Cambodians, such peace loving people. I remember how the favoured method of execution of kidnapped Westerners was to bash their heads in with the spoke of a cart wheel. I wont bring up the 1.3 million. I am sure the ordinary Cambodians aren't like that though. Just the ones in power.

[paul1804]

On 7/27/2025 at 5:37 PM, Geoff914 said:

Invested in the scam centres? And China isn't one to lecture on sovereignty rights.

Yes absolutely correct, Chinese involvement on SE Asian scam centres is huge and also Thailands crackdown on scam centres and opening Casinos is money out of Han Sen pockets so he is not happy with the current Thai administration!!

[ExpatOilWorker]

Cambodia 🇰🇭 has no chance against this....

 

[Will B Good]

1 minute ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Cambodia 🇰🇭 has no chance against this....

 

 

Microsoft Co-Pilot?....Get it?

[Jedi888]

I have a good psychic contact. He said the ceasefire would not hold. He was right.

Further predictions:

Conflict will continue, months long,

Gov collapse, new election, but,

New coup,

then a bloody revolution when that coup happens, as youth will loose patience.

The psychic also predicted the border war in February, and Bangkok building collapse last summer.

Credible to me..

 

[Jedi888]

34 minutes ago, Will B Good said:

 

Microsoft Co-Pilot?....Get it?

Gritty Cambo is fkd now! 5555

[Feingeist]

The reason for this war lies with this temple and the surrounding area. The dispute is really unnecessary. Especially since the ICC ruled in favor of Cambodia in 2013. But the Thais are stubbornly proud. You can already notice that in road traffic. LOL

[Will B Good]

1 hour ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Cambodia 🇰🇭 has no chance against this....

 

 

 

Be a bit different if the Thai Air Force was recruiting from soi 6

[Geoff914]

6 hours ago, Feingeist said:

The reason for this war lies with this temple and the surrounding area. The dispute is really unnecessary. Especially since the ICC ruled in favor of Cambodia in 2013. But the Thais are stubbornly proud. You can already notice that in road traffic. LOL

I thought that the judgement was purely about in whose territory the temple complex was. The dispute is all about the surrounding land that was not part of the court judgement. Is that correct? Wouldn't it be helpful to publish a few facts rather than people quoting one side or the other. Again I thought that the original agreement made with the French was that the border was the water shed. How difficult is it to determine where the water shed is?

[Geoff914]

"In 2013, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) reaffirmed its 1962 ruling that the Preah Vihear Temple, located on the Cambodian-Thai border, belonged to Cambodia, following a request from Cambodia for clarification on the ruling. The 2013 ruling also addressed the extent of the temple's vicinity, stating it included the cliff on which the temple stood but not the surrounding area. This reaffirmation did not resolve the underlying border dispute, and tensions continued to simmer, leading to further clashes and requests for clarification from the ICJ"

That seems absolutely crystal clear to me. The rights to the surrounding land has not been resolved.

[Burma Bill]

2 hours ago, Geoff914 said:

"In 2013, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) reaffirmed its 1962 ruling that the Preah Vihear Temple, located on the Cambodian-Thai border, belonged to Cambodia, following a request from Cambodia for clarification on the ruling. The 2013 ruling also addressed the extent of the temple's vicinity, stating it included the cliff on which the temple stood but not the surrounding area. This reaffirmation did not resolve the underlying border dispute, and tensions continued to simmer, leading to further clashes and requests for clarification from the ICJ"

That seems absolutely crystal clear to me. The rights to the surrounding land has not been resolved.

 

For reference:

 

 

This was the situation when I visited the Preah Vihear Temple UNESCO site pre-Covid.

The mountain on which the temple stands is in Cambodia, along with the mountainous land to the right which extends well into Cambodia. The low lying land below and beyond the mountain is in Thailand, in fact the Thai border circumnavigates most of the base of the mountain. there is only one crossing point (no road access) which is situated at the lower end of the long flight of stone steps up to the temple (lower edge of photo). This border crossing is just a locked gate (when I visited) and had been closed a long time since the previous conflict.  Road access to the temple is from Cambodia and an extension from the base Visitor Centre can be seen on the right. This road is hair raising and one has to park at the base Visitor Centre and transfer to special 4WD vehicles for the onward climb up to the temple. There had been no conflicts at the site when I visited, however there were Cambodian soldiers posted in sand bag protected observation points ready for any aggression from the Thai military. At the time of my visit, I was a Thai Tourist Police Volunteer based in Khon Kaen and a very kind Cambodian Tourist Police Officer took me on his motorbike to view the temple complex as I was having difficulty walking on the extensive terrain.  For me. a UK citizen, it was a truly memorable day visiting this spectacular Cambodian UNESCO Heritage site.

[Geoff914]

1 hour ago, Burma Bill said:

 

For reference:

 

 

 

South East Asia's answer to Monte Cassino. In terms of location.

[lordgrinz]

More context to what started all this....

 

Quote

 

Cambodian general 'dies during clash'

"Let this be recorded before it is forgotten that Gen Srey, who died in the Thai counterattack, was the instigator of this bloodshed between the two countries," he posted. "It was his wife who organised a musical performance at the Tri Muk Pavilion -- located in the disputed Emerald Triangle area -- that crossed into the overlapping border zone." The action of the general's wife led to the warnings from Thai military officials, said Mr Jakrapob. Instead, Gen Srey Duk reacted with hostility, initiating provocations that included the digging of trenches in restricted Thai territory, showing a premeditated Cambodian plan to provoke and escalate tension, Mr Jakrapob added.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/3077957/cambodian-general-dies-during-clash?tbref=hp