This is an important essay as it shows - based on factual evidence - that the fable of 'million lives saved' by the Covid-19 vaccine has no basis in reality. 

It looks at the origins of that 'millions of lives saved' claim (a blog-post without any evidence) and then goes on to show that the claim is simply impossible when confronted with the actual figures. 

The article is based on the rigorous analytical work of Denis Rancourt, Joseph Hickey, and Christian Linard, whose meticulous examination of mortality data and counterfactual claims has exposed fundamental impossibilities in the official COVID-19 narrative.

The lengthy article consists of 10 sections, each of them worth a read:

1. The 3 million lives
2. The Counterfactual Shell Game
3. The Impossible Virulence Surge
4. Geographic Impossibilities
5. The Ventilator Massacre
6. The Synchronized Death Spike
7. The Infection Fatality Shell Game
8. The Plausibility Collapse
9. Peer Review's Epistemic Collapse
10. Breaking the Mathematical Prison

 

The exposure of these impossible mathematics represents more than debunking a single false claim. It reveals the complete epistemic capture of public health, where impossible assertions become unquestionable truth through institutional repetition. The 3.2 million lives saved isn’t just wrong - it’s impossibly wrong, wrong in ways that reveal the systematic corruption of scientific reasoning itself.

Rancourt and Hickey haven’t just disproven the counterfactual - they’ve demonstrated that anyone with basic mathematical literacy and access to public mortality data could have disproven it. The impossibility isn’t hidden in complex calculations or proprietary data. It’s visible in simple graphs, basic arithmetic, and logical analysis. The fact that this obvious impossibility became accepted truth indicts every institution that promoted it.

 

You can read the full article here: https://unbekoming.substack.com/p/the-impossible-mathematics-of-vaccine

 

So yet another ANONYMOUS anti-vaxer conspiracy theory blogger (Unbekoming -- "our corporatized governments lied to us about all things Covid/Vaccines") who starts their article with the following::

 

"This essay relies entirely on the rigorous analytical work of  Denis Rancourt, Joseph Hickey, and Christian Linard, whose meticulous examination of mortality data and counterfactual claims has exposed fundamental impossibilities in the official COVID-19 narrative."

 

So, he means THIS Denis Rancourt and Joseph Hickey:

 

--AI assisted

 

And this Hickey and Rancourt who publish their nonsense via the Canandian nonprofit group that they both head called Correlation Research in the Public Interest. So naturally, that's the only place where they could find to sponsor a preprint of their nonsense:

 

And Correlation is:

 

--AI assisted

 

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Joseph-Hickey

 

https://correlation-canada.org/about/

 

Anti-vaxer nonsense BUNK by non-credible serial misinformers.....

 

 

And a bit more on Rancourt and his serial COVID nonsense:

 

"Denis Rancourt is a former professor of physics at the University of Ottawa. Rancourt is widely known for his confrontations with his former employer, the University of Ottawa, over issues involving his grade inflation and "academic squatting", the act of arbitrarily changing the topic of a course without departmental permission.

...

"In 2007, Rancourt published an essay disputing the scientific consensus on climate change on his blog, which has served as a platform for climate denial by politicians such as James Inhofe.^[33] In 2024, Rancourt made statements expressing support for various fringe views regarding COVID-19, including suggesting that the virus did not exist." [emphasis added]

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denis_Rancourt

 

AND

 

Rancourt being called out, and debunked, for his prior false claims about COVID:

 

Review Article By Misinformation Spreaders Misleads About mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines

February 26, 2024

 

"The mRNA COVID-19 vaccines have a good safety record and have saved millions of lives. But viral posts claim the contrary, citing a recent peer-reviewed article authored by known COVID-19 misinformation spreaders and published in a controversial journal. The paper repeats previously debunked claims.

...

Multiple studies have estimated that the COVID-19 vaccines saved millions of lives across the globe.

...

The review also uncritically cites an unpublished analysis by former physics professor Denis Rancourt that alleged that some 17 million people died from the COVID-19 vaccines. We recently explained that the report erroneously ignored deaths from COVID-19 and that such estimates are implausible." [emphasis added]

 

https://www.factcheck.org/2024/02/scicheck-review-article-by-misinformation-spreaders-misleads-about-mrna-covid-19-vaccines/

 

AND

 

"Fact-checkers have previously concluded that Rancourt’s conclusions are flawed because they rely on assumptions that spikes in deaths were caused by COVID-19 vaccines without showing evidence of this — and when COVID-19 itself is a clear contributor to excess deaths."

 

https://www.factcheck.org/2024/01/scicheck-tucker-carlson-video-spreads-falsehoods-on-covid-19-vaccines-who-accord/

 

Saw this today and found it very interesting indeed. Little bit of hypocrisy going on.

 

Trump gets Covid vaccine and flu shot during second check-up of the year

 

The visit, which the White House described Wednesday as a "yearly check-up," was his second examination at Walter Reed in six months.

 

And it's THOSE two guys (Rancourt and Hickey)  taking issue with this regarding the impact of COVID vaccination in the U.S. during the first two years:

 

Two Years of U.S. COVID-19 Vaccines Have Prevented Millions of Hospitalizations and Deaths

 

December 13, 2022

 

"It has been two years since the first COVID-19 vaccine was given to a patient in the United States. Since then, the U.S. has administered more than 655 million doses — 80 percent of the population has received at least one dose — with the cumulative effect of preventing more than 18 million additional hospitalizations and more than 3 million additional deaths. The swift development of the vaccine, emergency authorization to distribute widely, and rapid rollout have been instrumental in curbing hospitalization and death, while mitigating socioeconomic repercussions of the pandemic." [emphasis added]

...

As we mark the second anniversary of the U.S. COVID-19 vaccination campaign, understanding the impact of vaccines on reducing disease burden is needed to inform future, evidence-based actions. We therefore used a computer model of disease transmission to estimate hospitalizations and deaths averted through the end of November 2022. The model incorporates the age-stratified demographics, risk factors, and immunological dynamics of infection and vaccination. We simulated this model to compare the observed pandemic trajectory to a counterfactual scenario without a vaccination program. See “How We Conducted This Study” at the end of this post for further details on our methods."

 

 

 

https://www.commonwealthfund.org/blog/2022/two-years-covid-vaccines-prevented-millions-deaths-hospitalizations

 

The methods used in the Commonwealth Fund study are explained below:

https://www.commonwealthfund.org/blog/2022/two-years-covid-vaccines-prevented-millions-deaths-hospitalizations#methods

Not produced by two serial COVID anti-vaxing misinformers, but instead by credible scientists and researchers from major U.S. institutions including the Yale School of Public Health and the University of Maryland, who included:

 

Meagan C. Fitzpatrick

Faculty, Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine

 

Seyed M. Moghadas

Professor of Applied Mathematics and Computational Epidemiology, York University

 

Abhishek Pandey

Research Scientist in Epidemiology (Microbial Diseases), Yale School of Public Health

 

Alison P. Galvani

Founding Director, Yale Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA); Burnett and Stender Families Professor of Epidemiology, Yale School of Public Health

 

 

54 minutes ago, marin said:

Saw this today and found it very interesting indeed. Little bit of hypocrisy going on.

 

Trump gets Covid vaccine and flu shot during second check-up of the year

 

The visit, which the White House described Wednesday as a "yearly check-up," was his second examination at Walter Reed in six months.

 

 

 

Ohh, the irony.....

 

Though Trump at times lately has spoken positively about the COVID vaccines -- even as his administration under RFK Jr. has pursued a broadly anti-vaccines agenda:

 

Trump backs COVID and polio vaccines, calling them 'amazing'

September 6, 2025

 

"I think we have to be very careful. You have some vaccines that are so amazing. The polio vaccine, I happen to think, is amazing," Trump told reporters, adding that he believes the COVID-19 vaccine developed during his first term is also "amazing."

 

https://aseannow.com/topic/1372369-trump-backs-covid-and-polio-vaccines-calling-them-amazing/

 

How did these white-coat/Big Pharma pimps do their forecasting/predicting/estimating/guessing before computers had their more up to date software? A blackboard, chalk and an abacus?

 

I'll give you my estimations based on real science.

 

Deaths from covid ----- none.

People saved from covid, by taking a vax ----- none.

People injured by the vax ----- hundreds of millions.

Deaths by the vax ----- don't know.

 

Take the dollar away, and the whole scam falls apart.

 

''The person most likely to kill you is your doctor.''  ''Covid is the rebranded flu.'' Dr Vernon Coleman.

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Not produced by two serial COVID anti-vaxing misinformers, but instead by credible scientists and researchers from major U.S. institutions including the Yale School of Public Health and the University of Maryland, who included:

 

Meagan C. Fitzpatrick

Faculty, Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine

 

Seyed M. Moghadas

Professor of Applied Mathematics and Computational Epidemiology, York University

 

Abhishek Pandey

Research Scientist in Epidemiology (Microbial Diseases), Yale School of Public Health

 

Alison P. Galvani

Founding Director, Yale Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA); Burnett and Stender Families Professor of Epidemiology, Yale School of Public Health

 

Yep, and as expected you didn't even look into the posted article, otherwise you would know how 'credible' Fitzpatrick's publication was...

Well, people can choose who is more credible... this:

 

 

or this:

--AI assisted

 

Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, PhD

University of Maryland School of Medicine

 

Academic Title: Associate Professor

Primary Appointment: Medicine

 

Education and Training

• University of Notre Dame, B.S. in Biological Sciences, 2006
• Yale University, Ph.D. in Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, 2014
• Postdoctoral Associate, Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, 2015-2016
• Postdoctoral Fellow, Center for Vaccine Development, University of Maryland School of Medicine, 2016-2017

 

"Dr. Fitzpatrick is an infectious disease transmission modeler. She applies these models to assess infectious disease control strategies, with particular focus on evaluating the cost-effectiveness of vaccines. Her research combines methods from economics and decision sciences with these epidemiological models, to provide policy recommendations and support evidence-based decision-making.

 

Her research priorities include evaluation of vaccines and therapeutics against RSV, rotavirus, and pertussis, as well as strategies to reduce maternal and infant mortality in low-income settings. Additional pathogens of interest have included rabies, influenza, HIV, Zika, and Ebola."

 

https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/profiles/fitzpatrick-meagan/

 

 

5 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Well, people can choose who is more credible... this:

 

 

or this:

--AI assisted

 

Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, PhD

University of Maryland School of Medicine

 

Academic Title: Associate Professor

Primary Appointment: Medicine

 

Education and Training

• University of Notre Dame, B.S. in Biological Sciences, 2006
• Yale University, Ph.D. in Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, 2014
• Postdoctoral Associate, Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, 2015-2016
• Postdoctoral Fellow, Center for Vaccine Development, University of Maryland School of Medicine, 2016-2017

 

"Dr. Fitzpatrick is an infectious disease transmission modeler. She applies these models to assess infectious disease control strategies, with particular focus on evaluating the cost-effectiveness of vaccines. Her research combines methods from economics and decision sciences with these epidemiological models, to provide policy recommendations and support evidence-based decision-making.

 

Her research priorities include evaluation of vaccines and therapeutics against RSV, rotavirus, and pertussis, as well as strategies to reduce maternal and infant mortality in low-income settings. Additional pathogens of interest have included rabies, influenza, HIV, Zika, and Ebola."

 

https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/profiles/fitzpatrick-meagan/

 

Meagan Fitzpatrick is mentioned in section 1. of the article I posted.  

 

>> On October 10, 2024, Dr. Peter Hotez sat before Congress and delivered testimony under legal obligation to tell the truth. He declared that COVID-19 vaccines saved 3.1 or 3.2 million American lives and averted 18 million hospitalizations. Without them, he claimed, the United States would have seen 4 million deaths instead of “1-plus million deaths.” These numbers, he assured the committee, came from studies by his “colleague and friend Alison Galvani at Yale.”

The claim originated from a December 2022 blogpost on The Commonwealth Fund website, authored by Fitzpatrick, Moghadas, Pandey, and Galvani. Not a peer-reviewed paper with detailed methodology, but a blogpost. Yet this figure - 3.2 million lives saved - has achieved the status of revealed truth. Major media outlets from the New York Times to CNN have repeated it without question. Yale School of Public Health celebrated it on social media. The number has been carved into the congressional record, transforming speculation into official history.

 

Yep, despite all her academic credentials, I rate her credibility on his 'US saved lives' blog as zero...

56 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

"Dr. Fitzpatrick is an infectious disease transmission modeler. She applies these models to assess infectious disease control strategies, with particular focus on evaluating the cost-effectiveness of vaccines. Her research combines methods from economics and decision sciences with these epidemiological models, to provide policy recommendations and support evidence-based decision-making.

 

Her research priorities include evaluation of vaccines and therapeutics against RSV, rotavirus, and pertussis, as well as strategies to reduce maternal and infant mortality in low-income settings. Additional pathogens of interest have included rabies, influenza, HIV, Zika, and Ebola."

 

https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/profiles/fitzpatrick-meagan/

A load of old nonsense.