Myanmar’s Military: No Room for Moderates, Says Analyst

The Irrawaddy

As ASEAN leaders convened in Malaysia last week, renewed calls were made for the bloc to engage with Myanmar’s military regime. But hopes of finding a moderate faction within the Tatmadaw—Myanmar’s armed forces—are misplaced, argues veteran analyst Andrew Selth.

Writing in the wake of the summit, Selth dismantles the long-standing myth of “soft-liners” in Myanmar’s military leadership. While foreign governments and commentators have often speculated about internal divisions, he contends that the generals have consistently shared core beliefs: chiefly, the Tatmadaw’s right to dominate national affairs.

Since the fall of General Ne Win’s regime in 1988, various figures—most notably General Khin Nyunt—have been labelled moderates. Yet, as Selth points out, Khin Nyunt oversaw a vast intelligence network that brutally suppressed dissent for over two decades. Even the so-called “disciplined democracy” launched in 2011, and Aung San Suu Kyi’s electoral success in 2015, occurred only when the military felt secure enough to allow limited reform.

“The actual distribution of views is complex,” Selth notes, quoting scholar Morten Pedersen. But he stresses that no senior officer has ever seriously challenged the Tatmadaw’s role as guardian of Myanmar’s unity, stability, and sovereignty.

Following the 2021 coup, some observers again searched for moderates who might steer the country back to civilian rule. Yet no evidence has emerged of such a faction, and those currently serving under coup leader Min Aung Hlaing are there precisely because of their loyalty to his hardline stance.

Selth’s conclusion is stark: Myanmar’s military is not a fractured institution ripe for negotiation. Rather, it is a deeply entrenched power structure united by its commitment to control. Calls for compromise and dialogue, he warns, may be little more than diplomatic wishful thinking.

-2025-11-04