Myanmar’s Sham Election Likely to Cement Junta Rule

The upcoming elections in Myanmar, set to begin December 28, 2025, are widely expected to deliver a decisive victory for the military-backed parties — a predictable outcome in a poll critics label as a sham. Since the 2021 coup that deposed the elected government, the ruling military has dissolved major opposition parties, imprisoned thousands of leaders and activists, and taken tight control over the electoral process. 

Because large parts of the country remain under the control of resistance forces and ethnic armed groups, the vote will occur only in 274 of the 330 townships — leaving millions of people effectively disenfranchised. Media and political dissent have also been criminalized under a new law that punishes criticism or protest against the election process. 

Still, some analysts suggest the election could trigger internal adjustments within the junta. The ruling commander, Min Aung Hlaing, is expected to take the presidency, and may hand over military command to a more pliable officer — perhaps opening a narrow door for future shifts in power. That limited chance for change — even within a rigged framework — leads some to view the vote as a potential starting point for internal recalibration, not a return to genuine democracy.

Key Takeaways

Election is effectively predetermined. With opposition parties banned and many townships excluded due to conflict, the outcome is all but guaranteed in favor of military-aligned groups.

Freedom and fairness are absent. Widespread repression, criminalization of dissent, and restriction of media make the elections neither free nor inclusive.

Small chance for a power shuffle — not political reform. While junta leadership may reshuffle, the polls are unlikely to usher in real democratic change.

Adapted From 

https://theconversation.com/myanmars-military-will-no-doubt-win-this-months-sham-elections-but-could-a-shake-up-follow-269793