Myanmar Economy Set for Modest Rebound, Says World Bank

Myanmar’s economy is expected to edge back into growth next year, according to a new World Bank assessment that offers cautious optimism amid ongoing conflict and the lingering impact of a devastating earthquake.

The Bank now forecasts GDP growth of around 3% in the next fiscal year, a notable shift from its June projection of a 2.5% contraction. The improvement is largely attributed to reconstruction efforts following the 7.7‑magnitude quake in March, which affected more than 17 million people and caused an estimated $11 billion in damage.

In its latest report, the World Bank says rebuilding work and targeted support for the hardest‑hit regions are helping to stabilise parts of the economy. But it warns that the broader picture remains fraught. Inflation is expected to stay above 20%, while conflict, insecurity and unreliable electricity continue to weigh heavily on businesses and households.

“These early signs of recovery are encouraging,” said Melinda Good, the Bank’s Division Director for Thailand and Myanmar. “However, Myanmar’s economy continues to face formidable obstacles, including constrained reconstruction financing, ongoing conflict and insecurity, and unreliable electricity supply.”

The military authorities did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

Myanmar has been in turmoil since the 2021 military coup, which removed the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi and triggered nationwide protests that later evolved into armed resistance. The unrest has severely disrupted trade, investment and public services, compounding the economic fallout from the pandemic and natural disasters.

The junta plans to begin multi‑phased elections on 28 December, a process widely criticised by human rights groups and several Western governments, who argue it is designed to entrench military control rather than restore democratic rule.

For now, the World Bank’s outlook suggests a fragile and uneven recovery — one that hinges on reconstruction funding, improved security and the country’s ability to manage persistent inflation. Even with a return to growth, Myanmar faces a long and uncertain path back to economic stability.

-2025-12-09