Picture courtesy of Naewna

Thailand’s rice exports exceeded official targets in 2025, but the Ministry of Commerce has lowered its projection for 2026 amid intensifying global competition, currency volatility and geopolitical risks. Officials say the focus next year will be on defending existing markets while expanding into selected new destinations to support farmer incomes and stabilise export volumes.

On 21 January 2026, Arada Fueangtong, Director-General of the Department of Foreign Trade, said Thailand exported 7.9 million tonnes of rice in 2025, surpassing the target of 7.5 million tonnes. The shipments were valued at 148.204 billion baht, or about US$4.515 billion, reflecting stronger-than-expected performance despite price pressure in several markets.

White rice remained Thailand’s largest export category, totalling 3.62 million tonnes or 45.82% of all rice exports, although volumes fell from the previous year. Thai Hom Mali rice exports reached 1.76 million tonnes, up 0.57%, while parboiled rice rose sharply to 1.51 million tonnes, an increase of 18.90%. Other categories included Thai fragrant rice at 0.59 million tonnes, down 6.35%, glutinous rice at 0.33 million tonnes, up 10%, and brown rice at 0.09 million tonnes, up 200%.

Overall export volumes increased year on year for most rice types, except white rice and Thai fragrant rice. The declines were attributed to intense price competition from major exporters such as Vietnam, India and Pakistan, which continued to pressure Thailand’s market share in price-sensitive destinations.

Key export markets in 2025 included Iraq at 1.00 million tonnes, up slightly by 0.41%, followed by South Africa with 0.88 million tonnes, up 5.11%. The United States imported 0.82 million tonnes, down 3.60%, while exports to China rose sharply to 0.65 million tonnes, an increase of 48.95%. Senegal recorded 0.29 million tonnes, a decline of 41.10%.

Ms Arada said 2026 would remain challenging, with global rice supply expected to rise and competition staying intense. Demand from major buyers such as Indonesia is forecast to drop significantly due to policies aimed at food self-sufficiency, while exports may also be affected by the global economic outlook, a stronger and volatile baht and geopolitical tensions increasing shipping costs.

She added that geopolitical uncertainty could also prompt some importing countries to build strategic rice reserves, creating limited opportunities. Based on joint assessments with the Thai Rice Exporters Association, Thailand’s rice exports in 2026 are projected at 7 million tonnes.

Naewna reported that to support exports, the Department of Foreign Trade plans to work closely with the private sector to retain existing markets and pursue high-potential new ones. Trade delegations will visit key partners including Japan, China, the United States, Canada and South Africa, while government-to-government rice deals with China and Singapore will continue, alongside efforts to promote premium rice in countries such as Germany, Switzerland and the United States through trade fairs and online channels.

Key Takeaways

• Thailand exported 7.9 million tonnes of rice in 2025, exceeding the official target of 7.5 million tonnes.

• White rice exports fell sharply due to price competition, while parboiled and Hom Mali rice recorded gains.

• The Commerce Ministry has cut its 2026 export forecast to 7 million tonnes amid global and domestic challenges.

  

Adapted by ASEAN Now from Naewna 2026-01-22

 

 

1 hour ago, Georgealbert said:

lowered its projection for 2026 amid intensifying global competition, currency volatility and geopolitical risks.

And the too expensive THB... New contracts will be very expensive, other countries are cheaper... which means less earnings for Thailand