Where's The Us$ Heading To ?

[bendix]

Lao, You will still see that $1.35 level after the next ECB rate cut (and likely sub $1.30 again). I am seeing more and more forecasts for the Euro and the Pound to be at par over the next 6 months and for both to be at around $1.40/Dollar. This quick hyperbump from $1.25 to $1.44 must have really screwed over those EU manufacturers who export to the U.S. Not to worry though the ECB has plenty of rate cuts in their future so those European manufacturers may still do OK!

I beg to differ too. The Europe is one of the few zones which has real interest rates in positive territory (Australia and NZ too), and it's said on many occasions it wants to keep it that way. As Naam said . . another trimming perhaps . but that's it. The simple fact of the matter is that Europe as a whole is nowhere nearly as in the shitter as the US.

[samui04]

Lao, You will still see that $1.35 level after the next ECB rate cut (and likely sub $1.30 again). I am seeing more and more forecasts for the Euro and the Pound to be at par over the next 6 months and for both to be at around $1.40/Dollar. This quick hyperbump from $1.25 to $1.44 must have really screwed over those EU manufacturers who export to the U.S. Not to worry though the ECB has plenty of rate cuts in their future so those European manufacturers may still do OK!

I beg to differ too. The Europe is one of the few zones which has real interest rates in positive territory (Australia and NZ too), and it's said on many occasions it wants to keep it that way. As Naam said . . another trimming perhaps . but that's it. The simple fact of the matter is that Europe as a whole is nowhere nearly as in the shitter as the US.

ECB used to cut 0,25% at the time....

But the jump of the Euro got me by surprise, i should have waited in front of the ATM machine yesterday, every minute one more beer . With the pound getting close maybe the british will join so the Euro market will be really big enough to challenge the dollar.

[churchill]

How the Fed plans to save the world ! Scary .

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/de...es-ben-bernnake

[samuibeachcomber]

How the Fed plans to save the world ! Scary .

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/de...es-ben-bernnake

interesting article,the financial powers that be cannot stand the idea of no more growth,so come up with old ideas to make people spend again,hence reducing interest rates,in the past it worked,but now the banks have a crisis of confidence in lending,either to each other(no more trust)or to the public cos they are now having to go back to old lending practises and be careful who they lend to.plus the money the govts.threw at them they've had to use to pay for the bad debts that have occured,primarily through the USA mortgage packages that the usa sold on.so now we have a recession/depression coming on that no one has had to deal with before and everyone is scared.

when anyone gets a cold the best advice is to rest up and let the body repair itself,anti biotics wont cure a cold and so the best advice for the global economy i can think of is to rest up for a while and things will turn around,in the meantime govts.can support people who are finding increasing hardship through social welfare programes,familes too play apart in helping each other thats what families are for,the bedrock of our society.

the whole world is spent out,you just cant keep on spending,sometimes you just need to save,after all what does a human being really need but food,clothing,shelter and some love.

[LaoPo]

This quick hyperbump from $1.25 to $1.44 must have really screwed over those EU manufacturers who export to the U.S.

If, like I expect, the dollar moves further down it will indeed influence EU exports to the US; on the other hand it will make import products (also from Asia) cheaper as they are still mostly nominated in dollars.

If only the US carbuilders would have been making good cars, ready for export, the US car industry would have benefited enormously from a cheap dollar.

But, coming to the point: I don't see anymore triumph messages from Americans anymore about the all mighty powerful dollar.

The previous rise of the dollar was not based on US economical fundamentals but on other causes which, I'm sure, most posters are well aware of.

Basically the Dollar is in it's coffin...and I don't write so to bash upon the dollar but to face the facts.

LaoPo

[britmaveric]

$ is king and will remain so for decades to come.

[LaoPo]

$ is king and will remain so for decades to come.

I'm afraid I have to disagree this time with you Brit, for many reasons, but I have to run now....(not to buy Dollars though )

The Dollar will never be the same as in the past century. It's the Asian Century now, despite the present crisis which will be gone and forgotten in 5 years from now.

LaoPo

[flying]

$ is king and will remain so for decades to come.

Dont forget to click your heels three times when you say that

[Naam]

$ is king and will remain so for decades to come.

the "king" lost nearly half his value in less than a decade vs. a real "queen" of currencies. take a wild guess which one.

[Wrong Turn]

$ is king and will remain so for decades to come.

Can you explain to us why, and provide a few details?

TIA.

[PeaceBlondie]

Ah, brit, I wants to believes you, I does. But the baht has strengthened to 34.57, and we would both be embarrassed if I went back through here and quoted me saying 'amen' to your cheerleading. I am converting a chunk of dollars to baht to build a house now, and will be lucky to get 35. Oh well, it's just those funny green fiat things, like an old 1969 Fiat car, no intrinsic value.

[flying]

$ is king and will remain so for decades to come.

the "king" lost nearly half his value in less than a decade vs. a real "queen" of currencies. take a wild guess which one.

Dinar? But that does not work in many places?

So pound?

Ok I give up .........tell

[flying]

$ is king and will remain so for decades to come.

Can you explain to us why, and provide a few details?

TIA.

I think he was joking in reply to LaoPo's statement.............

But, coming to the point: I don't see anymore triumph messages from Americans anymore about the all mighty powerful dollar.

[Naam]

Will the Dollar fall?

experts say NO!

Edited December 19, 2008 by Naam

[chiang mai]

Will the Dollar fall?

experts say NO!

Happy to see you're recovering well!

[churchill]

Will the Dollar fall?

experts say NO!

Perhaps with a little deflation it could ?

[chiang mai]

Will the Dollar fall?

experts say NO!

Perhaps with a little deflation it could ?

[lannarebirth]

Will the Dollar fall?

experts say NO!

I've just immediately gone long.

[churchill]

Will the Dollar fall?

experts say NO!

I've just immediately gone long.

[lannarebirth]

Will the Dollar fall?

experts say NO!

I've just immediately gone long.

Hard to argue with that attactive fundament (als).

[LaoPo]

Will the Dollar fall?

experts say NO!

in Naam's private home office

did you take that photo in your office Naam, when that particular dollar fell from your stash ?

Good to see you're recovering slowly but surely !

LaoPo

[pkrv]

$ is king and will remain so for decades to come.

the "king" lost nearly half his value in less than a decade vs. a real "queen" of currencies. take a wild guess which one.

Your not a closet Anglophile by any chance are you Naam? - I have always had my suspicions......

Edited December 19, 2008 by pkrv

[AlexLah]

When you have this:

You can always make this out of it in the near future:

[Naam]

$ is king and will remain so for decades to come.

the "king" lost nearly half his value in less than a decade vs. a real "queen" of currencies. take a wild guess which one.

Your not a closet Anglophile by any chance are you Naam? - I have always had my suspicions......

i'm not a closet "any-phile" Pkrv but speak out what i think although it might not be politically correct each and every time

[joeyb]

LaoPo, why are you continually fixated with the downfall of the USA in every way shape and form. Any chance or opportunity you get to "turn the screws" you do so like a drunk to the bottle. And God forbid, whenever anyone from the US replies you always fallback on the "You all came from Europe/How long has your family been in America/" type response.

You have never had anything but negative things to say about the US, but you never stop. All your predictions/forecasts/ad nauseum links and comments can be boiled down to an ever suble hatred/jealousy of all things American.

You seriously need a new hobby.

Oh, this is the part where you respond with multiple emoticons. 3,2,1...

[LaoPo]

LaoPo, why are you continually fixated with the downfall of the USA in every way shape and form. Any chance or opportunity you get to "turn the screws" you do so like a drunk to the bottle. And God forbid, whenever anyone from the US replies you always fallback on the "You all came from Europe/How long has your family been in America/" type response.

You have never had anything but negative things to say about the US, but you never stop. All your predictions/forecasts/ad nauseum links and comments can be boiled down to an ever suble hatred/jealousy of all things American.

You seriously need a new hobby.

Oh, this is the part where you respond with multiple emoticons. 3,2,1...

I think you mean someone else. I never wrote anything similar to what you just wrote. From most posters (I would say about 95%, I don't even know where they're from and I'm also not interested in their background or origin, just their views or opinions).

As an investor I'm simply interested in the world economy and the US and the US $ is part of and one of the largest engines to the world economy.

I started this thread a long time ago as you might have noticed. I don't see anything wrong with my initial question/topic back in 2007, when I asked:

Where's The Us$ Heading To ?

I have no hatred or jealous feelings towards America or Americans; on the contrary. So, please don't put words in my mouth.

LaoPo

[joeyb]

LP, I am not the first, nor will I be the last, to call you out on the USA-bashing. Even in this thread you were accused of it already by others. You live each day to find a negative article about the US$/economy/politics/people/society etc.. and then post here so as to enlighten all of us with your skewed "facts".

I think this thread has a lot of interesting information, but your one-sided drum beat exposes your bias. Now I would think that someone of African ancestory would be a little more tolerent.

Looking back thru this thread, it's funny how the frequency of your posts directly correlates to the rise of the dollar. As oil prices fell and the dollar gained against the pound/euro, your posts greatly diminshed.

Since the start of thhis thread, there has been an abundance of bad news to report regarding the US$ and the US economy as a whole. But, you simply cannot help yourself. By letting your obvious biases weaken your "reporting", your "facts" become all too skewed.

Just so I am not let down, please include at least one emoticon in your reply.

[LaoPo]

LP, I am not the first, nor will I be the last, to call you out on the USA-bashing. Even in this thread you were accused of it already by others. You live each day to find a negative article about the US$/economy/politics/people/society etc.. and then post here so as to enlighten all of us with your skewed "facts".

I think this thread has a lot of interesting information, but your one-sided drum beat exposes your bias. Now I would think that someone of African ancestory would be a little more tolerent.

Looking back thru this thread, it's funny how the frequency of your posts directly correlates to the rise of the dollar. As oil prices fell and the dollar gained against the pound/euro, your posts greatly diminshed.

Since the start of thhis thread, there has been an abundance of bad news to report regarding the US$ and the US economy as a whole. But, you simply cannot help yourself. By letting your obvious biases weaken your "reporting", your "facts" become all too skewed.

Just so I am not let down, please include at least one emoticon in your reply.

You must have been busy, reading through the 23 pages this thread has so far.

I didn't recall you but after visiting your profile and having a blink at your previous posts, it seems you have a crush on me since you have been bashing/flaming me personally quite a few times already.

Nevertheless:

Happy Christmas !

LaoPo

[flying]

You know I was listening to these today

Part 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beq3M...os=sVHVmz5rSXc

Part 2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATgDXsxgRxQ&NR=1

Also the other 3 through 5 parts.

I was surprised in one a caller asked him if they should max out home equity & invest in PM's & foreign stocks,,,,, He said yes.

Edited December 21, 2008 by flying

[LaoPo]

Where's the US$ heading to ?

Some excerpts from the link below:

* Even after the dollar lost 34 percent since 2001, the biggest investors and most accurate forecasters say it will weaken further as home sales fall and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The dollar plummeted to its lowest ever last week against the euro, Canadian dollar, Chinese yuan and the cheapest in 26 years against the British pound.

* ``We've told all of our clients that if you only had one idea, one investment, it would be to buy an investment in a non- dollar currency,'' said Gross, the chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, and manager of the world's biggest bond fund.

* BNP Paribas chief currency strategist Hans-Guenter Redeker, the most accurate foreign-exchange forecaster last quarter in a Bloomberg survey, said the dollar may drop to $1.50 per euro by year-end.

* The dollar will rise to $1.43 per euro this year and $1.35 by the end of 2008, according to the median estimate in the survey.

* Buffett, whom Forbes in April ranked as the world's third- richest person behind Bill Gates and Carlos Slim, told reporters in South Korea last month that he is bearish on the U.S. currency.

``We still are negative on the dollar relative to most major currencies, so we bought stocks in companies that earn their money in other currencies,'' Buffett said Oct. 25.

* `Moving to Asia'

Jim Rogers, a former partner of investor George Soros, said last month he's selling his house and all his possessions in the U.S. currency to buy China's yuan.

``The dollar is collapsing,'' Rogers said last week in an interview. ``I'm moving to Asia because moving to Asia now is like moving to New York in 1907 or London in 1807. It's the wave of the future.''

* The five-year, 67 percent drop against the Canadian dollar has made it cheaper for fans from Toronto to drive the 110 miles (177 kilometers) to Orchard Park, New York, to watch the Buffalo Bills play football.

* The dollar's drop also makes American goods cheaper abroad. U.S. exports were a record $138.2 billion in August, government data show. Net exports added 0.93 percentage point to U.S. gross domestic product last quarter, offsetting a 1.05 percentage point drag from housing, government data show.

* Wealthy clients at San Francisco-based Union Bank of California have doubled their deposits in foreign currencies to $60 million the past two months as a hedge against a decline, said Bradley Shairson, head of currency and derivatives at the bank.

* U.S. investors bought $198 billion in foreign securities this year through August, 72 percent more than in the same period last year, Treasury Department data show.

* That's the same strategy as sovereign wealth funds run by the largest exporters and oil producers, including China, Singapore and Qatar, said Stephen Jen, head of currency research at New York-based Morgan Stanley.

The funds may grow to $17.5 trillion by 2017 from $2.5 trillion now and shift more than $500 billion out of the dollar in the next three years in search of better returns, he said.

``We're all thinking about diversifying out of the dollar,'' said Jen, who is based in London. ``It's a very logical thing.''

From Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aUdDmoYyZhdY

WHO KNOWS ?

LaoPo

BUMP

Interesting to see what happened to the Greenback so far, after the first OP in this topic, almost 2 years ago on 2007-11-06:

1 Euro = US$ 1.491 today

1 Euro = Baht 49,882 now, touching Baht 50 to 1 Euro.

1 US$ = Baht 33,456 today

1 GBP = Baht 54,586 today

LaoPo