Early hopes that war might shake Iran’s ruling system are fading fast as the conflict grinds into its fourth week, leaving civilians facing mounting destruction and deepening uncertainty. When strikes by the United States and Israel began, some Iranians believed the pressure could weaken the Islamic Republic and open the door to political change. But with the government still firmly in control and cities absorbing repeated attacks, that fragile optimism is giving way to fear and exhaustion. Early Calls for Uprising Meet Harsh Reality At the outset of the campaign, Donald Trump openly urged Iranians to rise up against their leaders, telling citizens they might not get a better opportunity to seize power “for generations”. For many opponents of the regime led by Ali Khamenei, the strikes seemed to offer a rare opening. Iran was still reeling from recent nationwide protests brutally suppressed by security forces. But as missiles continue to fall across the country, the focus has shifted from regime change to survival. Civilian Strikes Shatter Expectations Scenes of burning buildings and shattered infrastructure are rapidly changing public sentiment. In the southern city of Minab, a strike on a girls’ school became a grim symbol of the war’s human toll. Residents in Tehran describe a city operating under constant anxiety, where air raid warnings and smoke-filled skies have become part of daily life. The promise that war might weaken the state now competes with the immediate reality of civilian loss and insecurity. Forced Back to Work Under the Bombs Despite the air strikes, many government offices and workplaces remain open. Residents say authorities are demanding employees report in person, even as the threat of attack looms. Failing to show up risks being interpreted as political dissent in a country where public absence can trigger scrutiny from security services. For ordinary Iranians, the result is a punishing choice between personal safety and potential political consequences. No Clear Endgame The deeper anxiety lies in what comes next. Analysts say the United States and Israel may not even share the same objectives in the war. According to Babak Dorbeiki, Israel appears to be pursuing the collapse of the system, while Washington’s goals remain less defined. A War That May Change Nothing Even after heavy bombardment and the death of senior officials, Iran’s security apparatus remains intact. Power has now passed to Mojtaba Khamenei, widely viewed as even more hardline than his father. For many Iranians, the fear is stark: the war may devastate the country without delivering the political change some once believed was within reach. In Iran, hope gives way to fear as conflict rages on
