Exit Poll Results Show PPP Wins

[LaoPo]

The new constitution keeps the military in the equation no matter who is in power, correct? So until that constitution is changed, that part of it is not over.

Correct.

But the junta lost face big time and more so since it's all over the news in the Western countries that the generals 'failed' with the outcome of the elections and that the same is not what they hoped for and/or expected.

Even on Christmas day it's on Television in the west.

We'll see what happens next but I don't think the military will act now, so soon after the elections....it will take some time.

It depends what the highest person in the country told them to do or not to do.

Just IMHO.

LaoPo

[mbkudu]

Not sure why everyone is blaming Thaksin alone for selling Shin Corp to Temasek. The deal could only go ahead because SCB agreed to back the deal. Ina deal worth billions of dollars and one involving sellling important assets, the major shareholders of SCB will have given their go ahead for the deal.

The major shareholder in SCB is CPB. And who has final say in everything that the CPB does? . . . someone who cannot be mentioned.

Not everything is as simple as it seems in Thailand.

Such a revealing post. Siam Commercial Bank, Crown Property Bureau.......enough said.

[A_Traveller]

This is from the editor's blog on the Nation website

Dec 25. 4 pm: Good afternoon and Merry Christmas everyone. Well, there was a major discovery while we were celebrating the Christmas Eve. Someone pointed out that there was no chance the Democrats could form the new government, unless they managed to fill the Cabinet with outsiders (non-MPs) only. Why? Because the new Constitution won't allow Cabinet ministers to cast their votes in the event that the entire government is censured. This means if 248-MP coalition government led by the Democrat Party will have its strength reduced by 30 or so MPs if the MPs-dominated Cabinet is censured by the opposition.

The constitutional rule will badly affect a PPP-led coalition as well, unless Samak is able to form a 300-MP coalition, which of course needs support from either Chat Thai or Pua Paendin in addition to the smaller parties.

Let's take the 278-MP coalition scenario of the PPP as an example. If 20 MPs become ministers, the parliamentary strength will shrink to 258 if the entire Cabinet is censured. That's only an 18-MP advantage. In Thai politics, it's a big risk.

This constitutional rule, in other words, seem to have boosted the bargaining power of the Chat Thai and Pua Paendin parties significantly. Again, red card announcement could change things a bit, but you'll get the whole picture now. The constitutional rule must be taken into account in future speculation and analyses.

Thought provoking.

Regards

[mrtoad]

Not sure why everyone is blaming Thaksin alone for selling Shin Corp to Temasek. The deal could only go ahead because SCB agreed to back the deal. Ina deal worth billions of dollars and one involving sellling important assets, the major shareholders of SCB will have given their go ahead for the deal.

The major shareholder in SCB is CPB. And who has final say in everything that the CPB does? . . . someone who cannot be mentioned.

Not everything is as simple as it seems in Thailand.

Such a revealing post. Siam Commercial Bank, Crown Property Bureau.......enough said.

My sentiments exactly.

[mbkudu]

TIT, not Burma. The military is giving it one last shot to keep control of government, but their era is almost over. I suspect they have got at best one or two coups left in them before the people revolt against their belligerent authoritarian interference in Thai politics. If they (generals) don't want to focus on the job they are getting paid to do, perhaps they should be removed. In a democracy, there is no place for the military in politics.

After a certain event transpires, I believe the military will lose their ability to interfere in politics altogether, as there will be no one there to admonish their actions and endorse their interference.

They know this only too well and the coup was their final attempt to retain power and to ease the transition when that event happens.

Fortunately, they have failed and underestimated the will of the Thai electorate.

If they want to continue the legacy they will move again soon to consolidate power.

Make no mistake, Thailand is at the precipice and it will only take a slight push to send it over.

This is a very dangerous time.

It is a shame that due to certain stringent laws here, it can't be honestly and straightforwardly stated <deleted> is really going on here.

Edited December 25, 2007 by mbkudu

[A_Traveller]

^ Sorry to be boring here, but the bank's shareholders do not have the ability to give the OK to such a transaction. The bank acted in the client's interests and instructions. Shareholdings within SCB {and others} are both complex and opaque. To suggest that there is such a lineal link is to fail to understand the corporate structure, the bank - client relationship and ultimately the independence of the agency herein mentioned.

Regards

Edit PS Just because it has a word in its title does not mean that it is under such a direction.

Edited December 25, 2007 by A_Traveller

[Jingthing]

One in two people want Abhisit as prime minister

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is the people's choice for the position of prime minister and People Power Party leader Samak Sundaravej is the runner up inspite of his party's election victory, Ramkhamhaeng University Poll said on Tuesday.

The Nation

And it seems that Abhisit is indeed much more of the REAL people's choice than people here are realizing. It ain't over yet, folks. This is reminding me a little bit of Bush vs. Gore; maybe the good guy will win in this one?

BTW, the carding had begun ... against PPP.

Edited December 25, 2007 by Jingthing

[tropo]

This fits in with my feeling that the Thai voters have expressed a desire for blood lust. They voted for Samak, what were they "thinking"?

You're being very dramatic here. I'll tell you what most voters were thinking. They were thinking that they should vote for their favourite candidate...the same as most people around the world do when they vote.

Perhaps you're one of the few who vote for the canditates you don't like.

[Jingthing]

This fits in with my feeling that the Thai voters have expressed a desire for blood lust. They voted for Samak, what were they "thinking"?

You're being very dramatic here. I'll tell you what most voters were thinking. They were thinking that they should vote for their favourite candidate...the same as most people around the world do when they vote.

Perhaps you're one of the few who vote for the canditates you don't like.

I am suggesting their subconsious was part of the decision as well. I feel there is pent up violence in this country. Like before an earthquake, the tension is building under the surface. History here bears this out.

Edited December 25, 2007 by Jingthing

[Naam]

This fits in with my feeling that the Thai voters have expressed a desire for blood lust. They voted for Samak, what were they "thinking"?

You're being very dramatic here. I'll tell you what most voters were thinking. They were thinking that they should vote for their favourite candidate...the same as most people around the world do when they vote.

Perhaps you're one of the few who vote for the canditates you don't like.

I am suggesting their subconsious was part of the decision as well. I feel there is pent up violence in this country. Like before an earthquake, the tension is building under the surface. History here bears this out.

signed: Don Quixote of Pattaya

[Jingthing]

signed: Don Quixote of Pattaya TAXIS

How about responding to the content instead?

[Gravelrash]

One in two people want Abhisit as prime minister

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is the people's choice for the position of prime minister and People Power Party leader Samak Sundaravej is the runner up inspite of his party's election victory, Ramkhamhaeng University Poll said on Tuesday.

The Nation

And it seems that Abhisit is indeed much more of the REAL people's choice than people here are realizing. It ain't over yet, folks. This is reminding me a little bit of Bush vs. Gore; maybe the good guy will win in this one?

BTW, the carding had begun ... against PPP.

So, following an election where the people had the opportunity to choose Abhisit, they didn't. However a poll has the opposite view, thus the poll of a small percentale is correct and the election of the entire country wrong? Who would even print that?

As in so many worlwide elections, the educated voters are robbed of their correct choice by the stupid igorant masses. Should pass an IQ and income test to vote, now that would be real democracy, by the elite for the elite. Better still do away with elections with inconvenient outcomes, works for Burma.

[Jingthing]

Actually, the popular vote was very close, Democrat vs. PPP, and the actual election might actually be much more corrupted than an opinion poll, if you get my drift. This was NOT a popular vote landslide for Samak. In the seats contest, of course, they did much better, but still not enough for a decisive victory.

And in the Thai system as it is, the PPP did not gain enough seats to assure Samak being PM. Sounds like a pretty good system to me, if it affords a possibility of a coalition to block this horribly divisive and violence provoking choice. The poll shows there is indeed much more to this than meets the eye. Thailand is indeed VERY divided.

Edited December 25, 2007 by Jingthing

[ratcatcher]

YELLOW CARDS

EC issues yellow cards to three winning PPP candidates of Korat

The Election Commission decided Tuesday to issue yellow cards for three winning People Power Party candidates in Nakhon Ratchasima's Constituency 3, EC member Sodsri Satyatham said.

They are Boonlert Krutkhunthot (110,944), Linda Cherdchai (89,976) and Prasert Chantarawongthong (88,139).

EC regulations allow those who were given yellow cards to re-run in the by election set tentatively on January.

Nakhon Si Thammarat's Constituency 3 comprises Sikio, Sung Noen, Dan Khun Thot, Theparak, Phra Thong Kham and Non Thai districts.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This takes the cake for accurate reporting from THE NATION

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/12/25...cs_30060271.php

I'm sure Nakhon Si Thammarat voted for Democrats.

Top quality editing/

Edited December 25, 2007 by ratcatcher

[Felt 35]

I'll tell you what most voters were thinking. They were thinking that they should vote for their favourite candidate..

You are probably right tropo and that make it only scarier

[Gravelrash]

I harbour no love for Samak, who would, but believe Abhisit should be elected and not manipulated into power, his time will come. If he chooses option two he will have no legitimacy and will be seen by many as a stooge for the military et al. PPP still won despite the obstacles, in a level playing field they may have done even better.

I would agree with some other posters hat there is a lot more going on than would appear on the surface.

[Jingthing]

I don't view a coalition government to gain the required seats as manipulation. PPP or the Democrats will have to do the very same thing, so it is no fair labeling Abhisit a manipulator if the minority parties decide it is best for them to go with the democrats. PPP did not win enough seats and neither did the democrats. So now the fun begins.

In others words, PPP did not win. Yet.

Edited December 25, 2007 by Jingthing

[Gravelrash]

I don't view a coalition government to gain the required seats as manipulation. PPP or the Democrats will have to do the very same thing, so it is no fair labeling Abhisit a manipulator if the minority parties decide it is best for them to go with the democrats. PPP did not win enough seats and neither did the democrats. So now the fun begins.

In others words, PPP did not win. Yet.

Agreed, I was really refering to the trimming down of the numbers that will be coming. May find that just enough are disqulaified, thus manipulation reference that will probably be seen as such by the voters. At any rate we shall all wait and see.

[sriracha john]

Ramkamhaeng Univ Poll: Public Wants Abhisit as PM

The Ramkamhaeng University's Poll reveals the public wants the Democrat leader to become Prime Minister in the next government.

The Ramkamhaeng University's research center says its poll, conducted with more than 15,000 participants who are eligible voters nationwide to determine the public opinion about whom they want most as a leader of the next government, reveals the highest score for the Democrat Party's leader Abhisit Vejjajiva.

The poll says more than 52% state they hope to see the Democrat Party leader lead the next government, while 39% say they support the People Power Party leader Samak Sundaravej.

About 8% of all informants say they support the Chart Thai Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa for the prime minister post.

When participants were asked to explain the reasons which support their opinions, the group who supports the Democrat Party leader states that they believe Abhisit will perform well as a leader. The group adds that Abhisit's image and his decent character are recognized by the public and this should support him in being a good leader.

The group who says they support the People Power Party Leader as the next government head says they admire Samak's candid character, adding that they hope the People Power will help solve the economic crisis if their party leads the next government.

The group who says they support the Chart Thai Party leader expresses that Banharn's experience as a government leader in the past gives him credit as a favorable premier candidate.

- Thailand Outlook

[hammered]

Linda Cherdchai! Talking of dodgy characters. I didnt realise the bus mafia girl was running. Who did she stand for? Hopefully she wont end up in parliament. Right obnoxious mafia character.

[raybingham]

This fits in with my feeling that the Thai voters have expressed a desire for blood lust. They voted for Samak, what were they "thinking"?

You're being very dramatic here. I'll tell you what most voters were thinking. They were thinking that they should vote for their favourite candidate...the same as most people around the world do when they vote.

Perhaps you're one of the few who vote for the canditates you don't like.

Now we have got the bottom of it. The electorate have done what most voters do in elections - they vote for the person/people they LIKE. Not only Thailand but UK. USA, X-Factor etc,etc. Other countries also lack the intellect to analyse the strengths and weaknesses of each party's manifesto. In the UK/USA I am sure the same "parent making decisions for incapable/unqualified/uneducated offspring" can be applied. I would far rather see somebody eligible to vote actually exercising their democratic right/duty.

I maintain that, however you wish to disect the results, we have actually seen democracy in action.

[sriracha john]

Three pro-Thaksin party candidates get 'yellow card'

BANGKOK - Three People Power Party (PPP) candidates who won last Sunday's election in Nakhon Ratchasima have been given a yellow card on charges of involvement in a vote-buying scam.

Yellow cards and red cards are indicators certifying disqualification of elected candidates accused of wrongdoing.

An elected candidate who receives a red card will not be granted the seat, and will be banned from running in the by-election, already set by the EC for January 13, but those receiving yellow cards, however, are permitted to re-contest the seat in the by-election.

The Election Commission has handed out yellow cards which will be followed by a by-election scheduled for January 13 for the Thaksin-aligned PPP 's winning candidates in Constituency 3 of the northeastern province, namely Boonlert Krudkhunthod, Linda Cherdchai and Prasert Chanruangthong.

The trio was alleged of involvement in a hidden conspiracy of buying votes.

The current number of winning PPP candidates has now fallen to 230, following issuance of the yellow cards Tuesday.

In its earlier announcement of the official poll results, the Election Commission said that the PPP won 233 of the 480 seats in the lower house of parliament, with its top rival Democrat Party capturing 165 and Chart Thai gaining 37.

Meanwhile, three other winning PPP candidates in Lampang's Constituency 1 are suspected of involvement in electoral wrongdoings, and have been asked to report to the polling agency for questioning Thursday.

They included Kittikorn Lohsunthorn, Thanathorn Lohsunthorn and Wasit Phayakhabut.

- MCOT

[dog412]

Not sure why everyone is blaming Thaksin alone for selling Shin Corp to Temasek. The deal could only go ahead because SCB agreed to back the deal. Ina deal worth billions of dollars and one involving sellling important assets, the major shareholders of SCB will have given their go ahead for the deal.

The major shareholder in SCB is CPB. And who has final say in everything that the CPB does? . . . someone who cannot be mentioned.

Not everything is as simple as it seems in Thailand.

Such a revealing post. Siam Commercial Bank, Crown Property Bureau.......enough said.

My sentiments exactly.

i actually got physically sick.

[meemiathai]

TIT, not Burma. The military is giving it one last shot to keep control of government, but their era is almost over. I suspect they have got at best one or two coups left in them before the people revolt against their belligerent authoritarian interference in Thai politics. If they (generals) don't want to focus on the job they are getting paid to do, perhaps they should be removed. In a democracy, there is no place for the military in politics.

After a certain event transpires, I believe the military will lose their ability to interfere in politics altogether, as there will be no one there to admonish their actions and endorse their interference.

They know this only too well and the coup was their final attempt to retain power and to ease the transition when that event happens.

Fortunately, they have failed and underestimated the will of the Thai electorate.

If they want to continue the legacy they will move again soon to consolidate power.

Make no mistake, Thailand is at the precipice and it will only take a slight push to send it over.

This is a very dangerous time.

It is a shame that due to certain stringent laws here, it can't be honestly and straightforwardly stated <deleted> is really going on here.

Agreed!

[Plus]

It appears some posters think that PPP/TRT are advancing democracy, representing poors interests, or trying to free them from feudal slavery.

What a delusion.

They offer golden handcuffs, that's all, and these new handcuffs are a lot more difficult to break from than the old wooden shackles of the traditional "elites".

Have you forgotten that Thaksin's populistm and reforms had full endorsement from the elites all the way through?

The hel_l broke loose when the elites realised that Thaksin's goal wasn't the poor's welfare but robbing the country blind and stealing as much as possible for himself.

He bribed the poor with sweet talk and candies to get blank checks for himself, completely forgetting the country in the process. That was unacceptable.

You could argue that his regime was better for the country anyway, but don't forget that he faced massive civil revolt with no end in sight and the glory days of 2003-2005 were gone forever, he was forced to step down and promised not to become the PM again, and eventually his party had to be dissolved, with or without the coup.

Now, even with this so called "win", PPP can't form the coalition because no one wants to do anything with Thaksin anymore. Surapong himself dropped the issue of revoking the ban and dissolving AEC as not being party's platform - no other party would support these policies.

And if they drop that, PPP can rule as long as it wants - no one knows how their policies are different from any other party policies anyway. Free education, cheap loans, healthcare - which party didn't promise exactly the same thing?

If PPP can't find any partners for its "return Thaksin" policy, its "win" is useless, Democrats can just sit and wait until they fall falt on the face as they don't have any competent people to form the government, no clear cut policies, no direction for the country, only a bunch of big mouthed people spouting nonsense.

Little "thank you" gifts to the poor do not make the economy, they are non issue in businessmen assessment of the next year perspectives.

[Heng]

The Democrats will get their turn eventually, and most folks around here (myself not included) who are currently wishin' and a' hopin' that they'll get in... IMO won't be any happier with the results of that era of government either. It's the same old game of Monopoly, they just happen to release "new" superficial versions of it from time to time.... Deluxe edition, XXth anniversary, the Star Wars edition, Spongebob Squarepants, Deluxe, etc. etc.

[sriracha john]

Three small parties set to join PPP-led coalition

BANGKOK -- Three splinter parties have already decided to join a coalition government led by People Power Party, PPP secretary general Surapong Suebwonglee announced Tuesday.

In an official statement at the PPP head office, Surapong said the entry of the three unidentified parties into the PPP-led coalition will make a government consisting of a total of 254 members of parliament (MPs). Of that total number, 230 parliamentarians belong to the PPP.

The three splinter parties are believed to be the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana Party, which has nine MPs, the Matchimathipataya Party with seven MPs, and the Pracharaj Party with five MPs.

Surapong added that two additional parties might possibly jump onto the PPP bandwagon to make a stronger coalition government with a total of 315 legislators at its command. It is believed that the two parties are Chart Thai with 37 MPs and Puea Pandin with 24 MPs.

However, an official announcement on the formation of the PPP-led coalition will be made after January 3, he said.

- MCOT

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

So looks like a state of flux for at least the next 10 days...

Edited December 25, 2007 by sriracha john

[marquess]

Linda Cherdchai! Talking of dodgy characters. I didnt realise the bus mafia girl was running. Who did she stand for? Hopefully she wont end up in parliament. Right obnoxious mafia character.

I read in the Times yesterday that Yarumbung the police Capt was elected and that he was going to be appointed interior minister and would continue with the drugs war, does anyone know if either of this loving sons were elected?

[chownah]

It appears some posters think that PPP/TRT are advancing democracy, representing poors interests, or trying to free them from feudal slavery.

Some people probably do think this but then again there are those of us who feel that whenever the people vote in a particular gov't and the gov't they vote in does in fact take power then this in and of itself advances democracy.....every time people vote and the gov't they elect takes power it advances democracy whether it is a good gov't or not. If everytime the people elect a gov't it is allowed to take power then eventually the people will see that they actually can be part of the governing process and they will take it more seriously and demand better and more democratic gov'ts......this is the process of building democracy....it starts with elected gov't's actually taking and wielding power. Unfortuately there are junta's overthrowing the gov't so often here that democracy has not advanced very far....for the last 70 years or so it has just been a struggle among the ruling elite and any counting of votes was just a formality....basically the same ruling elite has set back democracy once again through this military dictatorship which hopefully will become more low profile soon (don't be fooled into thinking that is is disappearing altogether....coup number 18 and counting). Toxin is certainly not a paragon of virtue but on the other hand he seemed to be operating outside the usual sphere of ruling elite.....at least with him calling a slightly different tune there was and still might be the possibilty of something different happening.....his "populist" plans might be viewed as buying votes but I think that a careful observor of the electorate in rural Thailand will see that these plans also gave the always overlooked rural population a sense of empowerment.....for the people to feel empowered is a good thing and in the long run is one of the necessary elements for nurturing a democracy.

chownah

[Jingthing]

maintain that, however you wish to disect the results, we have actually seen democracy in action.

I don't actually believe that most Thais really like Samak, do you?