Recently I have been seeing more and more articles about Thailand’s declining birth rate. The numbers are now roughly on par with Japan, a country that has spent decades as the classic example of an aging society. The usual explanation seems fairly straightforward. Economics. A lot of younger Thais simply do not feel financially secure enough to have children. Housing is expensive, wages have not kept pace with rising living costs, and raising a child has become a much bigger financial commitment than it was for previous generations. In rural Thailand, where families of six or seven children were once fairly common, many couples now stop at one child or have none at all. In fact, fewer than half of Thai couples are now having children. Just a couple of decades ago that would have seemed almost unimaginable. To put things into perspective, here are some approximate fertility rates. Cambodia: 2.5 UK: 1.41 Thailand: 1.10 Japan: 1.10 Singapore: 0.87 South Korea: 0.80 What got me thinking about this even more was a conversation I had today with a Thai man in his mid 40s. He told me he came from a Muslim family of 12 children and that he was the youngest. His family was from Bangkok, not even the provinces. Just think about how extraordinary that sounds today. How many couples in Bangkok would even contemplate having 11 or 12 children now? Probably none. The interesting question is whether this is actually a problem, or simply an inevitable stage of development that every modern society eventually goes through. On one hand, fewer children generally means people have more money, more opportunities, and greater freedom to pursue education and careers. On the other hand, every country still needs enough younger people to replace an ageing workforce, pay taxes, support pension systems, and fill essential jobs. Thailand already seems to be relying more heavily on migrant workers in sectors that younger Thais increasingly avoid. That trend is probably only going to continue. The difference is that countries like Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong became wealthy before their populations started ageing. Thailand is facing many of the same demographic challenges without having reached the same level of economic prosperity. It makes me wonder what Thailand will look like 30 years from now when those two trends eventually collide. Will the declining birth rate turn out to be a major problem, or will society simply adapt the way it always has?
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