englishoak Posted January 17, 2008 Share Posted January 17, 2008 If oil was running out, believe me, the oil companies would not be all but giving it away. At current prices, a liter of quality gasoline isn't much more than a liter of quality water at 7/11. Most people in Thailand probably spend more on their phone bills than on fuel. When oil begins to get scarce you will see it start to become expensive unless demand is curbed by cheaper alternatives before that happens. If oil was about to run out, the bastard airline companies wouldn't have just ordered the most jets ever in a year. Spot on, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smithson Posted January 17, 2008 Share Posted January 17, 2008 Darfur is not about politics, religion, race or land. It's about water. And it's only the start. I thought it was about oil. Isn't there a heap of oil in southern Sudan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altman Posted January 17, 2008 Share Posted January 17, 2008 (edited) Interesting you should mention natural gas. I have stock in a VERY small oil company called Credo Petroleum. I took this from their annual report;Proved reserves reached a record 20.5 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), or 11 percent more than the year before. Natural gas reserves increased 6 percent while oil reserves increased 40 percent. Credo has posted record reserves for 14 consecutive years. not saying that this is the case with your company, but this story may illustrate what is happening with your company's, (and by extension that of other oil/gas companies), expanding/proven reserves: as mentioned by others, an oil companiy's stock value is primarily based on it's reserves. in order to keep the stock price up it is necessary to show increasing reserves. my parents have a small farm in the states. recently they were approached with an offer to option the mineral rights on their property. some time prior to this the property had been explored and shown to have some oil/gas 'potential', but was considered to be so insignificant as to be economically infeasible to develop. with the need for a company to show increasing reserves a company can continue to maintain it's stock price by optioning proven reserves. even though those reserves can not realistically be pumped out of the ground. if peak oil is real, this is one of the scenarios one could expect to see. since the amount of oil that can be realistically pumped out of the ground is becoming much harder to find a company may find it easier to buy paper oil. this could be done as in the case of my parents or it could be done on a larger scale by an oil company absorbing/merging with another oil company. so have patience. sooner or later some other oil company will come along and buy your oil company to expand their own 'proven reserves'. Edited January 17, 2008 by altman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altman Posted January 17, 2008 Share Posted January 17, 2008 Of course there will be some tighter times, but it's all part of the challenges that will be overcome. i think what most of us doom sayers are saying is that you are right. we just think you don't know the half of it A lot of you haven't seen what engineering feats and marvels that can be performed to get that oil and gas extracted. it is because of this need to perform extra-ordinary feats of engineering that we doom sayers feel that maybe we have already reached 'peak oil' or very near to it. if oil were easy to find and extract you wouldn't need all the razz ma tazz to get what remains out of the ground. We have enough time, energy and resources to make a mockery of this so-called 'Peak Oil' calamity that seems to be rattling some folk. In fifty years time folk will look back at the 'Peak Oil' hysteria and think 'What a bunch of pussycats!' strangely enough i think most of us hope you're right. we just don't have the confidence in governments and corporations telling us the truth that you do. and since we tend to think for ourselves we prefer to plan ahead and prepare for what may be a worldwide catastrophe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altman Posted January 17, 2008 Share Posted January 17, 2008 it will be a simple financial decision. When oil hits a certain price, other alternative energies will become economical, whether they be wind, solar or others like Coal to Oil, natural gas turbines or a range of other things.The high prices will make our innovators come out with more energy efficient products, and make us more energy efficient ourselves. Just becuase oil has been the 'magic bullet' in the past, doesn't mean we will continue to have one fuel source as our main energy supply. In future it will be an increasing mix of things, oil being one of them. not long ago, when oil was about $30, solar was predicted to become financially viable at $60 oil. since oil at $60 was considered to be a delusionist dream, no significant effort was put into making solar a feasible mass market product. now that oil is at $100 solar is gaining popularity. unfortunately there is a shortage of the silicon substrate used to make solar cells so the availability of solar panels remains constrained. this will continue, it is predicted, for another 5 years or so. at which time, the price of oil used to make the silicon and the panels will probably be higher causing the price of the panels to be higher causing the effects on the individual to be greater... no magic bullet there. of course, if you have the same 'premium money' that it would have cost you to implement solar then, you can implement it now. i have also heard that you can get your own personal home based hydrogen reactor for only $50,000. if you have the bucks that may not be a bad idea. but for the average wallowing-in-mortgage-debt joe, it just isn't feasible. so alternatives may exist, or be developed, but for whom? and if not for me or you, then do they really exist at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
micksterbs Posted January 17, 2008 Share Posted January 17, 2008 Steam engines were invented before oil based lubricants were available. Hemp based lubricants were used from the earliest days of engines until the 1940's, even in airplane engines. And except a few very specialized applications, hemp based lubricants can replace most lubricants used today.Hemp and other organic fibers can be used in place of a number of different plastics. They are more durable and more environmentally friendly. Hemp was the world's number 1 fiber until the invention of nylon. Hemp paper can be used to replace a number of different plastic packaging. Yes, agreed. But don't forget that 1. The population was much lower then. 2. There was more land available for agriculture. If we have to suddenly start devoting more land to replace oil as a fuel (ethanol, palm oil etc) and oil as a lubricant (hemp/other organic fibres) then who's going to tell some hungry people that there's not enough room to grow food anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altman Posted January 17, 2008 Share Posted January 17, 2008 If we have to suddenly start devoting more land to replace oil as a fuel (ethanol, palm oil etc) and oil as a lubricant (hemp/other organic fibres) then who's going to tell some hungry people that there's not enough room to grow food anymore? getting back to the op's topic, what effect will it have on thailand... recently i saw an article in the bkk post about a speech given by some mucky muck in the thai gov't. basically he was saying that food prices in thailand will rise, if i recall correctly, 30% this year due to farmers switching to bio-fuel crops and leaving less land and labor for food crops. with less money to spend on fuel, since food will generally take priority, perhaps the cost of fuel will drop. but since the cost of oil worldwide is going higher, and bio-fuel is such a minuscule portion of all energy consumed, i doubt it. more likely, the people will just suffer more with less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
altman Posted January 17, 2008 Share Posted January 17, 2008 and one more ... oil company profits. Exxon's profit nears $10B By Matt Krantz, USA TODAY While drivers have been painfully paying up at the pump, oil companies have been racking up eye-popping profits. Exxon reported: • Net income up 75% to $9.92 billion. That is the most a U.S. company has earned from operations in a three-month period and greater than the annual gross domestic product of entire nations including Cameroon and Zimbabwe. what gripes me is that this is NET INCOME. after they pay employees, search for new oil, pay off politicians, clean up oil spills, etc. this is money in the bank profit. for ONE QUARTER. why is the price at the exxon gas station pump so high with profits like this? surely they could subsidize that gas station price with a little bit of their largess... unless of course they think that the gravy train is about to come to a halt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumnien Posted January 17, 2008 Share Posted January 17, 2008 Exxon is very worried about global warming and realizes that lower pump prices will only increase demand, decrease supply and infuriate environmentalists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lickey Posted January 17, 2008 Share Posted January 17, 2008 Yahoo!My Yahoo!Mail Make Y! your home pageYahoo! SearchSearch:Sign In New User? Sign UpAnswers Home -Forum -Blog -Help Ask Answer Discover Search for questions: Advanced My Profile Home > Science & Mathematics > Earth Sciences & Geology > Resolved Question underthe... Member since: October 17, 2006 Total points: 117 (Level 1) Add to My Contacts Block User Resolved QuestionShow me another » "what happens to the empty space that we get when you remove oil from the ground? 1 week ago Report It by Gregg H Member since: December 28, 2007 Total points: 3303 (Level 4) Badge Image: Contributing In: Earth Sciences & Geology Chemistry Add to My Contacts Block User Best Answer - Chosen by Asker This same question was asked a couple of days ago... this is a copy of my answer (cut-and-paste) Oil in underground reservoirs fills the voids in sedimentary rocks. The oil is usually in equilibrium with the surrounding rocks as far as pressure is concerned - which means that well pressures in deep wells can be 4000-5000 psi. (The rock at depth supports the weight of all the rock over it, so pressures are high. When you remove the pressure by producing the oil or gas, the pores that used to contain the hydrocarbon are often crushed by the weight of the overlying rock. The entire ground subsides - but since these pores are usually in the size range of hundredths of an inch to an inch or so, you do not usually see big craters forming with buildings disappearing. Rather, whole basins tens or hundreds of miles across just slowly sink as the rocks at depth start to compress. Believe it or not, this is thought by many to be the cause of New Orleans sinking. The Gulf has been such a prolific producing area for so long, the ground is subsiding at a rate of about three eighths of an inch per year - which over a century adds up. The oil companies disagree with the cause of the subsidence. The basins containing oil are naturally subsidence areas (which is why all that organic matter got buried so deep in the first place) so it is hard to figure out how much subsidence is related to the production itself, and how much due to the underlying natural tectonics of the area. One clue to the answer might be Las Vegas - subsiding in this case due to the pumping of huge amounts of groundwater. This is not a naturally subsiding area; rather, the overproduction of groundwater resources is emptying the natural aquifers, depressing the water table, and allowing the pore spaces to compact. The magnitude is up to about an inch per year, meaning that it is not unreasonable to speculate that the New Orleans subsidence is largely production related. 1 week ago Source(s): http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/regulate/... http://www.npagroup.com/insar/apps/lasve... 0 Rating: Good Answer 0 Rating: Bad Answer Report It Asker's Rating: Asker's Comment: a great anwser i thank the person for there time and knowledge 0 stars - mark this as Interesting! Who found this interesting? Be the first person to mark this question as interesting! Email Comment (0) Save Add to private Watchlist Save to My Web Add to My Yahoo! Add to Del.icio.us RSS There are currently no comments for this question. * You must be logged into Answers to add comments. Sign in or Register. Other Answers (1) by freedomi... Member since: September 29, 2006 Total points: 2916 (Level 4) Add to My Contacts Block User • In many wells, the oil company replaces the oil with water. • The oil content some gases like a soda. When the well reaches the oil, part of it goes to the surface due to the gas pressure. • Sometimes the empty space collapses. 1 week ago 0 Rating: Good Answer 0 Rating: Bad Answer Report It Open Questions in Earth Sciences & Geology Who put the idea forward for plate tectonics and what evidence did they use? gereral science? Which type of rock is formed as a result of lava cooling quickly? what would happen to us if all the animals died because of deforestation? Resolved Questions in Earth Sciences & Geology What measures are being taken to prevent overfishing in oceans? ok some serious basic help. i need quick answers its for science? Relation Big Bang and Bible is ? If heat rises.................? Ready to Participate? Get Started! 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gregb Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 Just stay the <deleted> off your high horse, don't try to mandate how you feel other people should live, and let me and others like me enjoy my right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Somone woke up on the wrong side of the bed. Nobody is trying to tell you how to live your life. In fact, I say "go for it". Consume all you can as quickly as you can. If you don't, somebody else will. At issue is the fact that your current party life style won't last forever. It's not going to end tomorrow, but your life in 20 years won't be close to what you have right now. So, you can make your future alot less miserable if you leave the party early and start to plan ahead. Those who don't are going to have an awfully rough time of it once the punch bowl is taken away. Live however you want, just don't live in ignorance. There is no conspiracy to control the oil supplies, it's not greedy governments doing this to you, and it's not lazy corporations who won't invest in new technologies. The problems are simply of scale and geological constraints. No discussion on this board will change that. Reality is what it is. People will die. Resource wars will come. Better to start thinking about it now. What will you do when you lose your job and can't get another one? How about when food rationing starts? How much do you depend on refrigeration and processed foods? Can you get to everywhere you need to go if your car/taxis aren't available? If you're in an apartment building on the top floor, are you physically able to climb the stairs during sustained power outages where the lifts are not functioning? Are you prepared for the reality of life with your civil liberties significantly curtailed? Do you like those who live near you? These and many more are all immediate consequences of the coming crisis. They are long term issues which will only get worse with time. They will last for the indefinite future. In the mean time, please be merry and enjoy the party. You won't have that option tomorrow. As far as the OP's question of Thailand's particular fate, as of lateThailand has become much too westernized. There will be lots of pain in the cities. However, those who grew up with hardship in the country may be able to adapt. It will mostly be an issue of wealth instead of location though. The rich in any country will have an easier time of it in the beginning. The poor will suffer first and longest. In the end, there will be no middle class. Just rich nobles and poor peasants, as it has throughout history. That is the most stable equilibrium. Planning now can mean the difference between your children becoming a noble or a peasant (or dead!). Consider that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 Just stay the <deleted> off your high horse, don't try to mandate how you feel other people should live, and let me and others like me enjoy my right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Somone woke up on the wrong side of the bed. Nobody is trying to tell you how to live your life. In fact, I say "go for it". Consume all you can as quickly as you can. If you don't, somebody else will. At issue is the fact that your current party life style won't last forever. It's not going to end tomorrow, but your life in 20 years won't be close to what you have right now. So, you can make your future alot less miserable if you leave the party early and start to plan ahead. Those who don't are going to have an awfully rough time of it once the punch bowl is taken away. in my opinion the impact from individuals "leaving the party" is too small to count as long as developing countries are "partying" as if there is no tomorrow. and my [not so] humble opinion is that they have a right to do so, the same right the industrialized countries used when they polluted the environment and burned fossil fuels for more than a century. moreover, those who keep on partying will not have a less rough time in future than the others. because if the punch bowl is taken away then no exceptions will me made. i see no logic in this statement but perhaps i'm missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mixed Posted January 18, 2008 Author Share Posted January 18, 2008 in my opinion the impact from individuals "leaving the party" is too small to count as long as developing countries are "partying" as if there is no tomorrow. and my [not so] humble opinion is that they have a right to do so, the same right the industrialized countries used when they polluted the environment and burned fossil fuels for more than a century. The more who leave the party the greater the result. Developing parties are 'partying' to copy the developed. I get the impression your saying industrial countries have reduced the impact on the enviromnent, consumption in these countries continues to increase, cuasing more pollution every year. moreover, those who keep on partying will not have a less rough time in future than the others. because if the punch bowl is taken away then no exceptions will me made. i see no logic in this statement but perhaps i'm missing something? It's not a case of the punch bowl being taken away, just that drinking from it will get more and more expensive, so many can't afford to do so. Therefore the poor will be the first to suffer. This is in the short term however, in the long term who knows. Poor communities may more sustainable without oil. Whereas Western countries will find it much harder to cope. Europe will have big problems, but Australia, Canada and the USA will find it really hard. Their societies were built around personal transport, can you imagine how these places will be when running a car is impossible for most ppl. It's difficult to say for Thailand, food prices will increase as more land is used for bio-fuels. Thais have become very used to modern conveniences, but that doesn't mean they can't live without them. Saying that technology will save the world is OK if you can back it up with research. If not your planning on a miracle, which isn't wise. It would have been good if we started planning 30 years ago, but we didn't. Even 5 years ago would be good. We could start today, but we're not. The first thing we need to do is believe in peak oil. We're addicted to oil and don't have enough to satisfy our addiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quiksilva Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 I'm not too worried as we run out of oil, increasingly more of our resources will be aimed at finding alternatives or creating new technologies, necessity is the mother of invention after all. PS can somebody please kill the 'party' metaphor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mixed Posted January 18, 2008 Author Share Posted January 18, 2008 I'm not too worried as we run out of oil, increasingly more of our resources will be aimed at finding alternatives or creating new technologies, necessity is the mother of invention after all. If we wait too long there may the resources needed to create the alternatives. This is the crux, whether it's building nuclear powerstations, windmills or making solar panels, they all need oil. So the longer we wait, the less oil we'll have and the harder the crash will be. Ppl advocating the end of oil in the 70's were called crackpots, but if the world had taken their advice the landing would be much softer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pampal Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 (edited) Yes, agreed. But don't forget that1. The population was much lower then. 2. There was more land available for agriculture. If we have to suddenly start devoting more land to replace oil as a fuel (ethanol, palm oil etc) and oil as a lubricant (hemp/other organic fibres) then who's going to tell some hungry people that there's not enough room to grow food anymore? Yes , the population was less, but there is much more land under cultivation now, than there has ever been in recorded history. And it's much better managed and organized. Agriculture has advanced greatly since the 1850's. Using mechanized agriculture, the yield from an acre or hectare, has increased greatly. Furthermore, having created more disease/pest resistant strains has also led to much greater yields. Not to mention advanced irrigation techniques.So I don't believe the amount of land is much of an issue, I believe economics is the real issue. 1. If more land is given to fuel production vs. food production, this will lead to increased food prices and possibly lower fuel costs. 2. If more land is given to food production vs. fuel production, fuel prices will rise and food prices will rise because of transporation costs related to fuel prices rising. Food prices will rise either way. But in scenario number two, food prices will rise because of the increasing price of fuel and shortage of land, don't forget you have to deliver the goods to the customers. It's not looking good either way. I have strayed from the topic btw I hope that I am wrong Edited January 18, 2008 by pampal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smithson Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 (edited) Yes , the population was less, but there is much more land under cultivation now, than there has ever been in recorded history. And it's much better managed and organized. 1. If more land is given to fuel production vs. food production, this will lead to increased food prices and possibly lower fuel costs. Fuel cost will increase whatever the case. We would never produce enough bio-fuels to replace oil. Many say the amount of energy used makes bio-fuels a bad option altogether. 2. If more land is given to food production vs. fuel production, fuel prices will rise and food prices will rise because of transporation costs related to fuel prices rising. We will have to eat more locally grown foods, ppl will go back to growing food in their backyards, even on rooftops in the city. Sounds crazy, but I heard Singapore has already experimented with rooftop hydroponics. Neighbors and communities will be swapping produce, as they did decades ago. This is something the Thais would find easy. I have strayed from the topic Not really, agriculture that uses less oil is vital. Thailand may fair well here with it's fertile lands, high rainfall and year round crops. Hemp has been touted for it's enviro-friendliness, it was widely used for 1,000's of years. Many believed it was pushed out of use by the cotton industry, which is much more dependent on oil for production. Modern sustainable agriculture techniques produce better crops than traditional techniques. The question is can the produce as much as present day agriculture, especially if bio-fuels crops were also being growm. Edited January 18, 2008 by Smithson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary A Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 Not too many years ago in Issan, the average farm size was ten rai and they farmed it with buffalo pulling the implements. Some of the old timers are now going back to the buffalo mostly as a protest against of the price of diesel fuel. Walking behind the iron buffalo is not much different than walking behind the animal. Plow and fertilize at the same time. This is organic farming at its finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HS Mauberley Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 (edited) Interesting slip by that fool Bush in a recent interview on ABC. When asked if he would ask the Saudis to raise production, his reply was: “If they don't have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do.” which is at the very least an admission that the Saudis may be at peak and if they are, pretty much by definition, the world is at peak. (See http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3514#more for a discussion and link to the interview). Edit Also, if anyone is interested in seeing exactly how the rate of growth in oil extraction has now ground to a halt, have a look at the figures at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t14.xls It seems fairly clear that we are now, at best, on a plateau. Whether or not this is the actual peak, can't be known for a few years yet. Edited January 18, 2008 by HS Mauberley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canuckamuck Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 (edited) Interesting slip by that fool Bush in a recent interview on ABC. When asked if he would ask the Saudis to raise production, his reply was:"If they don't have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do." Sounds like a standard political non answer to me. Edited January 18, 2008 by canuckamuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimjim Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 It's going to be like Children of Men, or Bladerunner, or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canuckamuck Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 Please let it be Bladerunner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 Also, if anyone is interested in seeing exactly how the rate of growth in oil extraction has now ground to a halt... which is not necessarily a reliable indicator. a more logical conclusion is that those who sit at the pumps think "why should we pump more 20% more crude and bring the price down by 50%? are we brain-amputated?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HS Mauberley Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 ^ It's certainly a possibility but given the recent very large increase in exploratory drilling in Saudi Arabia, it seems unlikely. If they're able to ramp up production from existing fields, why are they hunting around in one of the most inhospitable parts of the planet for more oil? It doesn't make sense. Have a look at the work at the oil drum (posted some time in the spring last year) and the stuff by Matt Simons on decline at Ghawar. There's a fair amount of guess work in all the analysis (not least because OPEC treats reserve figures as state secrets), but the balance of evidence certainly seems to indicate that it is highly optimistic to think that there is not going to be a very, very significant problem in the near future. Even the IEA, historically very sanguine on the issue of peak oil, is now talking, in couched terms, of an "oil crunch" by 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BEENTHEREDONETHAT Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 It does not matter that the oil is almost inaccessable if they can show they own the reserves it helps the price of the stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HS Mauberley Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 What stock? The Saudi's hydrocarbons are owned/controlled by Saudi Aramco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chownah Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 (edited) Why would we run out of oil? First, the more expensive it gets the larger the amount which can be extracted gets....when oil costs twice as much they will start refining the tar lake in trinidad etc. Second, the more expensive it gets the more money can be spent to develop equipment that will utilize it more efficiently and the more shared transportation will be developed. Third, we can grow oil, both on the land and in the sea. Fourth, other energy technologies are emerging rapidly and the more expensive oil gets the more effort and money will be put into developing them faster. Fifth, if there ever is an appreciable scarcity of oil (which I doubt given items one through four above) then society will restructure itself and expectations will be realigned in ways that use energy more efficiently...we could use less than a quarter of the energy we do now without an appreciable decline in life style....except of course people with energy addictions will not agree with this. Really, I think some of you guys think that you are going to go down to put gas in your car someday and there will be a sign up saying, "Sorry all the oil is gone so eat shrift and die!".......relax, don't worry, it won't happen like that. Chownah Edited January 18, 2008 by chownah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meom Posted January 18, 2008 Share Posted January 18, 2008 ^ It's certainly a possibility but given the recent very large increase in exploratory drilling in Saudi Arabia, it seems unlikely. If they're able to ramp up production from existing fields, why are they hunting around in one of the most inhospitable parts of the planet for more oil? It doesn't make sense. Believe they're looking for gas this time instead of oil. So far without much result. They've found some but nothing like the big one in Qatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smithson Posted January 19, 2008 Share Posted January 19, 2008 Why would we run out of oil? First, the more expensive it gets the larger the amount which can be extracted gets....when oil costs twice as much they will start refining the tar lake in trinidad etc. Second, the more expensive it gets the more money can be spent to develop equipment that will utilize it more efficiently and the more shared transportation will be developed. Third, we can grow oil, both on the land and in the sea. Fourth, other energy technologies are emerging rapidly and the more expensive oil gets the more effort and money will be put into developing them faster. Fifth, if there ever is an appreciable scarcity of oil (which I doubt given items one through four above) then society will restructure itself and expectations will be realigned in ways that use energy more efficiently...we could use less than a quarter of the energy we do now without an appreciable decline in life style....except of course people with energy addictions will not agree with this. Really, I think some of you guys think that you are going to go down to put gas in your car someday and there will be a sign up saying, "Sorry all the oil is gone so eat shrift and die!".......relax, don't worry, it won't happen like that. Chownah If you read the whole thread you'll see where the concern lies and the problems with alternative fuel sources, whether they be bio-fuels or renewables. It's not about running out completely, just less oil and more demand which will send prices skyrocketing, making it simply unaffordable to many. Nobody is saying the sky is falling, just that adjustments will be difficult and the sooner we get started the better. If we starting adjusting 30 years ago it would have been a soft landing. Starting today is important, leaving it for later or saying there's no problem is a recipe for disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chownah Posted January 19, 2008 Share Posted January 19, 2008 (edited) Why would we run out of oil? First, the more expensive it gets the larger the amount which can be extracted gets....when oil costs twice as much they will start refining the tar lake in trinidad etc. Second, the more expensive it gets the more money can be spent to develop equipment that will utilize it more efficiently and the more shared transportation will be developed. Third, we can grow oil, both on the land and in the sea. Fourth, other energy technologies are emerging rapidly and the more expensive oil gets the more effort and money will be put into developing them faster. Fifth, if there ever is an appreciable scarcity of oil (which I doubt given items one through four above) then society will restructure itself and expectations will be realigned in ways that use energy more efficiently...we could use less than a quarter of the energy we do now without an appreciable decline in life style....except of course people with energy addictions will not agree with this. Really, I think some of you guys think that you are going to go down to put gas in your car someday and there will be a sign up saying, "Sorry all the oil is gone so eat shrift and die!".......relax, don't worry, it won't happen like that. Chownah If you read the whole thread you'll see where the concern lies and the problems with alternative fuel sources, whether they be bio-fuels or renewables. It's not about running out completely, just less oil and more demand which will send prices skyrocketing, making it simply unaffordable to many. Nobody is saying the sky is falling, just that adjustments will be difficult and the sooner we get started the better. If we starting adjusting 30 years ago it would have been a soft landing. Starting today is important, leaving it for later or saying there's no problem is a recipe for disaster. Thanks for giving me a better perspective...indeed I have not read all of the posts. Even from the standpoint of less oil and more demand it seems that my points pretty much indicate that the down side of the transition will be very moderated. The technology already exists to make fuel from corn at about the same cost we have for petroleum now. Also research is hot and heavy into converting non-food crops and agricultural waste into ethanol....some new facilities are due to come on line soon in the northern US...I forget exactly where. Growing algae for fuel extraction is possible and if/when that technology comes on line there will be huge potentials for growing fuel in the ocean....and photosynthesis is being harnessed to directly produce electricity. The price for solar photvoltaics is plummeting also across a wide variety of different technologies in that field and wind just keeps on getting more cost effective too. Don't forget fusion.....not proven yet to be commercially viable but if you spend a few months studying the issues involved and get a good understanding of the state of the technology you will see that so far there are not show stopping issues and it is verfy likely (but not proven) that this will eventually..... And even aside from all this...if the cost of oil doubles again it will not really have much impact on the lifestyle of the people around where I live....or me for that matter. If you have a small motorbike for transportation, no aircon, and bathe in tepid water then energy is not really a big part of your budget......heck, even in the local style of farming fuel is a relatively insignificant input....artificial fertilizers require alot of energy to make so I expect that fertilizer prices would go up but even if they doubled in price it would not be a show stopper...it would just mean that rice would cost a bit more....also, fertilizer would be used more carefully and natural sources of fertility would start being used again (organic farming techniques). Really I think that the only people who need worry about this issue at all are those that are addicted to fuel consumption because of their life style of course these are the people who are creating the "problem" in the first place by consuming ridiculous amounts of fuel which causes the "shortage".....for alot of us it is a total non issue if fuel prices keep going up. Chownah Edited January 19, 2008 by chownah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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