'Half The Country' Fears Another Coup: Poll

[george]

'Half the country' fears another coup: Poll

BANGKOK: -- More than 50 per cent of respondents to an Abac Poll fear there will be another coup within the next six months, the pollster said on Sunday.

Abac Poll by Assumption University said that of 3,404 people surveyed, 55.6 per cent said the military might launch another coup during the next six months, and 54.6 per cent expected some unexpected, violent event to occur.

Only 53.6 per cent of respondents surveyed from May 6-10 expect Samak Sundaravej to remain as prime minister.

There has not been a military coup since Sept 19, 2006, when the army unseated prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Some 87.8 per cent of people said they expected to face more expensive commodity prices and 80.1 per cent were braced for increased crime.

-- The Nation 2008-05-12

[Plus]

There has not been a military coup since Sept 19, 2006

That reads like a quote from Onion.com. The folks at the Nation have probably decided that "onion" style is more suitable for Thai politics than straight reporting.

[KireB]

There has not been a military coup since Sept 19, 2006

That reads like a quote from Onion.com. The folks at the Nation have probably decided that "onion" style is more suitable for Thai politics than straight reporting.

A: Hello, miss, sir, missir, may I ask you a question?

B: Euhhh, what for (arei naaaaaaa) ?

A: Well we are doing an ABAC Poll.

B: A what (arei naaaaaa)?

A: An ABAC Poll.

B: Euhh, ok.

A: Do you fear another coup?

B: When?

A: Between now and infinity?

B: (optional) Yes, I do (chai) . No, I don't (mai chai).

Great polls ABAC! Keep them coming.

[Seneque]

'Half the country' fears another coup ...

Probably should be read as follows :

'Half the country' WISHES another coup

[astral]

Half the country, based on a 3404 sample..................

Hardly representative.

Quoting percentages down to decimal points.

Time to go back to school and study the art of "statistics".

It is like the toothpaste ad that says "9 out of 10 dentists recommend our toothpaste".

The problem is that they only asked 10 dentists.

[younghusband]

Half the country, based on a 3404 sample..................

Hardly representative.

Quoting percentages down to decimal points.

Time to go back to school and study the art of "statistics".

It is like the toothpaste ad that says "9 out of 10 dentists recommend our toothpaste".

The problem is that they only asked 10 dentists.

I have little doubt the ABAC opinion polls are rubbish.Funny though how some sudenly become prompted to speak out when the findings displease them when they (the creepy foreign coup apologists) were quite happy to quote them when the findings supported their position.

[PeaceBlondie]

Half the country, based on a 3404 sample..................

Hardly representative.

Quoting percentages down to decimal points.

Time to go back to school and study the art of "statistics".

It is like the toothpaste ad that says "9 out of 10 dentists recommend our toothpaste".

The problem is that they only asked 10 dentists.

Good points, astral. Out of 63 million Thais, not a big enough sample.

You sometimes see several decimal points of a percentage (meaning 4 or 5 significant digits) when fewer than 1000 people were interviewed (3 significant digits). And we know that ABAC polls are sometimes not well written.

[Naam]

Half the country, based on a 3404 sample..................

Hardly representative.

Quoting percentages down to decimal points.

Time to go back to school and study the art of "statistics".

It is like the toothpaste ad that says "9 out of 10 dentists recommend our toothpaste".

The problem is that they only asked 10 dentists.

and paid by mistake only 9 of them for a favourite answer.

[Plus]

There's nothing wrong with this poll. I doubt "Half the country" line was included in their official result. I think it covers only Bangkok, Nontaburi, and perhaps Samut Prakan as it's close to their campus.

The rest of the country might have dimetrically opposite opinion, no one asked them.

[geriatrickid]

How Assumption can call itself a place of higher learning, a "university" and associate itself with these this garbage polls was puzzled me, so I had a look;

ABAC is an acronym for Assumption Business Administration College, a forerunner of Assumption University (AU).

Some of ABAC Poll's clients are the ministry of public health, the office of Thai health promotion, the office of Prime Minister, the office of national health system reform, the office of the narcotics control board, the ministry of justice, the ministry of finance, Bank of Government Housing, other nondisclosure private companies, domestic and international news media agencies.

But I give them credit for being honest with this declaration;

Who We serve

Government agencies

Business companies

Non-government organizations

Academicians and students

Mass media

Yikes. Forgive me for feeling the poll is biased. Academician? Didn't that title go out with the old soviet union?

Edited May 12, 2008 by geriatrickid

[toptuan]

Why would a coup here be "feared?"

The last one didn't seem to be.

Newspapers full of pictures with children posing in front of tanks, flowers being put in the barrels of guns, the word "bloodless" glued to "coup" in every written account. Thailand went on a public-relations orgy, demonstrating to the world that they could "do it right," while ignoring the fact that the underpinnings of democracy had been further trashed.

Why have we moved from "Flowers" to "Fear?" What possessed ABAC and/or The Nation to add that word to their poll report?

Please enlighten us, Spin-Doctors of the Last Coup (and there were plenty of them on this very forum):

What is to be feared now?

Edited May 12, 2008 by toptuan

[sabaijai]

Why would a coup here be "feared?"

The last one didn't seem to be.

Newspapers full of pictures with children posing in front of tanks, flowers being put in the barrels of guns, the word "bloodless" glued to "coup" in every written account. Thailand went on a public-relations orgy of demonstrating to the world that they could "do it right," while ignoring the fact that the underpinnings of democracy had been further trashed.

Please enlighten us, Spin-Doctors of the Last Coup (and there were plenty of them on this very forum):

Why have we moved from "Flowers" to "Fear?"

What is to be feared now?

That Samak and company will remain in charge.

[toptuan]

Why would a coup here be "feared?"

The last one didn't seem to be.

Newspapers full of pictures with children posing in front of tanks, flowers being put in the barrels of guns, the word "bloodless" glued to "coup" in every written account. Thailand went on a public-relations orgy of demonstrating to the world that they could "do it right," while ignoring the fact that the underpinnings of democracy had been further trashed.

Please enlighten us, Spin-Doctors of the Last Coup (and there were plenty of them on this very forum):

Why have we moved from "Flowers" to "Fear?"

What is to be feared now?

That Samak and company will remain in charge.

Same rationale for the last coup. And it's this mentality which keeps Thai politics in the 3rd world.

Thank God that most of the Western World still elects their leaders for the next regime change. As flawed as the process might be, it's not quite the public slap in the face of "government by the people" that coups seem to deliver.

Edited May 12, 2008 by toptuan

[younghusband]

Actually most sensible and well educated Thais know that another coup would be disastrous.Those who yearn for (or seek to provoke) another military intervention have an increasingly obvious agenda - though time and gravity is not on their side (which paradoxically might result in a desperate act).And as for that creepy minority of foreigners who would welcome another coup I can only speculate on their motivation.Fortunately their opinion is neither here nor there.

[samran]

Actually most sensible and well educated Thais know that another coup would be disastrous.Those who yearn for (or seek to provoke) another military intervention have an increasingly obvious agenda - though time and gravity is not on their side (which paradoxically might result in a desperate act).And as for that creepy minority of foreigners who would welcome another coup I can only speculate on their motivation.Fortunately their opinion is neither here nor there.

another coup would be disasterous. I'm betting that Thaksin would love another coup. At which point all his opponents would have even less credibility that he has.

[Shotime]

"Some 87.8 per cent of people said they expected to face more expensive commodity prices and 80.1 per cent were braced for increased crime."

I guess 50% don't seem to think it matters if there's a coup or not

[Jefferson]

another coup would be disasterous. I'm betting that Thaksin would love another coup. At which point all his opponents would have even less credibility that he has.

Absolutely. Actually I think Thaksin *already* has the most credibility of anyone out there, very much including Samak..

But yes, another coup would be just as disastrous as the last one has proven to be.

[TAWP]

Why do people here still think that polls with 3-5k respondents are 'too small of a sample'?

If the sampling is correctly done, no matter how big the population is, you only need a sample consisting of at least 1040 respondents.

If the sampling is incorrectly done, it doesn't matter how many you ask until you start to reach at least double digits in percent of the total population.

So can people stop automatically bashing any polls with 3-5k of respondents and at least aim their discontent towards the sampling instead?

[john b good]

another coup would be disasterous. I'm betting that Thaksin would love another coup. At which point all his opponents would have even less credibility that he has.

Absolutely. Actually I think Thaksin *already* has the most credibility of anyone out there, very much including Samak..

But yes, another coup would be just as disastrous as the last one has proven to be.

In what way was the last coup "disastrous" ?? Disastrous for Thaksin, Yes !

Agreed it didn't necessarily achieve a helluva lot but as for being a disaster "I think not"

In the past 10 -12 years Chuan is the only PM who could claim to have had any real "credibility" and Chuan doesn't (and didn't) have a string of law suits to defend himself against.

[john b good]

Why do people here still think that polls with 3-5k respondents are 'too small of a sample'?

If the sampling is correctly done, no matter how big the population is, you only need a sample consisting of at least 1040 respondents.

If the sampling is incorrectly done, it doesn't matter how many you ask until you start to reach at least double digits in percent of the total population.

So can people stop automatically bashing any polls with 3-5k of respondents and at least aim their discontent towards the sampling instead?

Well put Tawp.

As long as it representative 3-5 k respondents are enough.

100,000 respondents are not gonna make the results any more accurate and indeed it would be likely to make the results less so.

[cclub75]

There has not been a military coup since Sept 19, 2006

Filipinization, here we come.

Slowly but surely.

Coup or not coup, it isn't the question.

The real question is : do you know someone, smart enough, honest, willing to help his country, who could lead Thailand on the path of real reforms, modernity, and fireup the country ?

Hum ?

No ?

Indeed. We have instead :

-stupid generals, burmese style, in their tight uniform

-degenerated politicians

-and a vast majority of thai people totally zombified

The perfect recipe for a filipinization.

No hope.

[jumnien]

It's a tragedy that Thailand has no politicians of the moral calibre of Bush, Cheney et al.

[Plus]

Thai generals are nothing like Burmese, but let's leave that aside.

Thailand has very promising people like Abhisit BUT he is too good for this country. Now that the leaders are elected democratically we see what the majority of population wants or needs, and they are not looking for honest, smart, modern politicians or real reforms.

Samak is a correct reflection of the corrupt majority here, and I mean corruption in morals, values, and principles.

Local lefties who say that the best people are too removed from the majority got it right, but they are not helping either, in effect they preach the cult of mediocrity.

[Scott]

Well, lets all start making garlands to place on the rifle barrels and tanks.

I hope we get another day off for this one.

[Seneque]

The previous coup was a success : we got rid of Thaksin ...

The previous coup was a failure : the cream of (long forgotten) godfathers and gangsters where given power again.

There is no obvious solutions ... and democracy is definitely not one of them (just look at 'fast losing' power which is the USA and their hunger for love... )

If any of your 'wise' TV writers has a solution, people in Thailand (which are not, and by far, as dumb as you might think) would love to hear from you.

[younghusband]

It's a tragedy that Thailand has no politicians of the moral calibre of Bush, Cheney et al.

Bush and Cheney can be booted out in a free expression of democracy.In Thailand the generals, many of whom are a lot closer to their repulsive Burmese brothers in arms than some will admit, are always poised to intervene and impose their will.Who, other than the most rabid haters of democracy, can observe the current primary process in the US and not conclude theirs is a stirring and inspiring system.How second rate and depressing is the Thai system in comparison.

[astral]

I am not sure I would use "moral calibre" in the same sentence as the names mentioned in the previous post but that is my personal view.

In a "democracy" the people are stuck with corrupt leaders until they can be voted out,

and elections can be rigged. Just look at the debacle in Zimbabwe.

Coups do seem to have a place in the Thai political scheme,

as a means of getting rid of corrupt or inept leaders.

As far as I can see the army has never held power for long, unlike their Burmese brothers.

Perhaps this is why 50% of the people polled are not worried about another coup?

BTW the first coup was in 1932 and brought about the start of democracy in Thailand.

http://www.tour-bangkok-legacies.com/1932-coup.html

[younghusband]

I am not sure I would use "moral calibre" in the same sentence as the names mentioned in the previous post but that is my personal view.

In a "democracy" the people are stuck with corrupt leaders until they can be voted out,

and elections can be rigged. Just look at the debacle in Zimbabwe.

Coups do seem to have a place in the Thai political scheme,

as a means of getting rid of corrupt leaders.

As far as I can see the army has never held power for long, unlike their Burmese brothers.

Perhaps this is why 50% of the people polled are not worried about another coup?

BTW the first coup was in 1932 and brought about the start of democracy in Thailand.

http://www.tour-bangkok-legacies.com/1932-coup.html

There are in my view several misapprehensions in the quoted post some based on an apparently hazy understanding of Thai history.However unless pressed to do so I will refrain from pointing them out given the amusing reference to the 1932 coup.Clearly the poster needs to research what that one was all about!!

[Plus]

It's the democratically elected Thai leaders who are Burmese best friends. With Samak and Noppadon openly defending them I can't understand how anyone would mention generals at all.

Is it a case of "don't let the facts in the way of a good story"?

And 1932 looked like a coup by all accounts.

[TAWP]

I am not sure I would use "moral calibre" in the same sentence as the names mentioned in the previous post but that is my personal view.

In a "democracy" the people are stuck with corrupt leaders until they can be voted out,

and elections can be rigged. Just look at the debacle in Zimbabwe.

Coups do seem to have a place in the Thai political scheme,

as a means of getting rid of corrupt leaders.

As far as I can see the army has never held power for long, unlike their Burmese brothers.

Perhaps this is why 50% of the people polled are not worried about another coup?

BTW the first coup was in 1932 and brought about the start of democracy in Thailand.

http://www.tour-bangkok-legacies.com/1932-coup.html

There are in my view several misapprehensions in the quoted post some based on an apparently hazy understanding of Thai history.However unless pressed to do so I will refrain from pointing them out given the amusing reference to the 1932 coup.Clearly the poster needs to research what that one was all about!!

"You are wrong but I cannot be bothered to tell you why."

"Amusing" is a word that is correctly thrown into the mix.