What Happens To Thailand If Oil Prices Hit $200 Bbl?

[awakened]

I have read that Thailand is self-sufficient in rice. All well and good in the latest Wall St, starving the poor, depopulation scam. Perhaps the poor can ride it out.

However, I have also read that farmers are not being compensated for the additional cost of production caused by higher fuel prices. What happens when they can't afford to fill the tractor? Can't get their goods to market? Can't afford the fertilizer? Will we see rice stockpiled at farms or a move to alternative crops? Perhaps mass suicides as we saw with Indian farmers?

What happens to Thailand's diversity when small farmers are driven out of business and corporate Agro-biz moves in to buy their land at knock-down prices? Isn't this just more of the same from the Monsantos of this world? A Wal-Mart or Tesco Lotus in every town and every small business driven out, bankrupt and the keys handed over to the private banker pirates.

Anyone in the know in this area?

[TheDon]

I see alot more people going back to the push bikes

[Prakanong]

"Anyone in the know in this area? "

Martine will be along soon with his "back to the land i told you so" ROFL

[GuestHouse]

It is very rare that I agree with anything the Don has to say, but he's on the nail here.

--

You mention $200 per barrel, you might better consider the consequences of oil remaining at its currently high price since the impact is a slow drain on the economy rather than a sudden hit.

There would and will of course be consequences beyond a sudden rush to peddle power - Looking back at the economic crash of the 90s and the current political situation in Thailand - it is clear that an economic downturn would play right into the hands of those (he) who are waiting in the wings.

[Prakanong]

It is very rare that I agree with anything the Don has to say, but he's on the nail here.

--

You mention $200 per barrel, you might better consider the consequences of oil remaining at its currently high price since the impact is a slow drain on the economy rather than a sudden hit.

There would and will of course be consequences beyond a sudden rush to peddle power - Looking back at the economic crash of the 90s and the current political situation in Thailand - it is clear that an economic downturn would play right into the hands of those (he) who are waiting in the wings.

Yes there will be political turmoil and given the shakey state of politics in Thailand it will last as if its world situation with no control to be had by the Thai's they might change again and again.

Then there are the economic and social environmental factors - all round higher prices would have effects there too - already for a lot of the poor a high proportion of income is spent on food. Less spending on consumer goods all round.

A lot of non-necessities might be foregone ie private english classes so less jobs for a sector of the people on this board.

A certain group of foreigners might be forced out of the country as well as their real incomes diminish.

[Jimjim]

Thailand is not self sufficient in fuel. Read up on Brazil and sugar cane fuel for a country that is much better off in this way (and of course the countries who have a lot of oil).

[swain]

The real alternative fuel sources and energy production alternatives will surface as oil companies will no longer be able to suppress information effectively. Adversity is the mother of invention. Also, we will be going back to basics.. Growing what you can on any piece of land you have. Minimal travel. Local farmers will do better as cheap alternatives will not be able to be shipped in cheaply. Local production of clothes and house hold items will start to be the norm. The extended family will become much more extended...pollution will decrease, starvation will increase. Birth rate will drop, and death from disease we thought we destroyed long ago will resurface and rise. Banks foreclosing at record levels. housing prices will plummet in price. Squatting will rise. crime will increase ... for basic survival. Air travel for only the very rich, so tourism will all but disappear. Export except to local countries and very rich countries will dry up. This of course is already starting to happen but slowly, if fuel prices keep going south it could get much worse. A slow rise would have helped us ease into this new lifestyle but seems we are taking the express train at the moment....

[WinnieTheKhwai]

I have read that Thailand is self-sufficient in rice.

Um, a lot more than self-sufficient; Thailand is a major rice exporter. Thailand is the Saudi Arabia of Rice.

On an up-country village level, Thailand is self-sufficient for just about anything except fuel. Especially for food of course, though a case could be made that rising fuel/energy costs will affect everything.

Still, it hasn't been THAT long ago that people didn't HAVE a lot of the things that depend the most on energy and foreign trade, so the knowledge and experience is there to go back; Anyone up-country over age 40 most definitely remembers how to handle a buffalo.

No worries. How did that claim of one of the historical kings of Sukhothai go.. As long as there is rice in the fields and fish in the sea...

[Prakanong]

I have read that Thailand is self-sufficient in rice.

Um, a lot more than self-sufficient; Thailand is a major rice exporter. Thailand is the Saudi Arabia of Rice.

On an up-country village level, Thailand is self-sufficient for just about anything except fuel. Especially for food of course, though a case could be made that rising fuel/energy costs will affect everything.

Still, it hasn't been THAT long ago that people didn't HAVE a lot of the things that depend the most on energy and foreign trade, so the knowledge and experience is there to go back; Anyone up-country over age 40 most definitely remembers how to handle a buffalo.

No worries. How did that claim of one of the historical kings of Sukhothai go.. As long as there is rice in the fields and fish in the sea...

Good post and much more realistic than the doom and gloom of Swain - straight out of a nerdy novel that one.

One point though - people react more when their expectations if a rising standard of living are taken away than when they have always had nothing - this may cause problems.

[steveromagnino]

the other thing is that Thailand is not subsidising fuel much these days, so the oil hikes are being passed onto consumers now; this is not the case in other markets such as India (I am told) where the consumers are being protected as per the Thaksin oil subsidy for deisel a few years back to secure the Isaan pick up driver vote.

Therefore, $200 is only a similar rise from what we've seen in the last 3 years anyhow; not exactly pleasant but certainly manageable with regards to transportation.

For natural gas and coal, you'd expect to see more of a shift towards those hydro carbons for power; nuclear the main issue is that the prices may spiral even faster; a good point is you might see some more energy efficiency measures; in fact THailand has a massive gold mine in reducing plastics, energy wastage and a variety of other measures.

Kwai (buffalo) already making a major comeback in Isaan as they are now more cost effective for certain applications.

Bike riding definitely a possibility.

A few less trips to the 7:11 in a taxi/motorbike.

More cars like Jazz and Yaris, fewer deisel pick ups and big Euro gas guzzling BMWs and Mercs.

As for land ownership, not sure whether you know a huge amount of land is already concentrated in a few hands; lots of hired hands. With a food surplus and enough water for the populace Thailand isn't in too bad shape. Many of the markets for products to USA the Americans simply aren't any good at making any more (e.g. surfboards, windsurfers) or only have the choice of various developing countries, most of whom have the same cost structures (China, Vietnam). With a massive market right next door and another close by (India) might see more concentration on export to those markets.

Biggest benefit miht be reduction in low cost airlines and low value tourism, as travel becomes more of an exclusive activity. I don't think this escapes the hotels, as they are increasingly moving upmarket, thank goodness.

$200 oil is not that bad; might be a useful shunt towards NGVs if the PTT and EGAT and government types can reticulate a network to actually service Thailand rather than getting rich flogging ME petrol/deisel instead.

[swain]

I have read that Thailand is self-sufficient in rice.

Um, a lot more than self-sufficient; Thailand is a major rice exporter. Thailand is the Saudi Arabia of Rice.

On an up-country village level, Thailand is self-sufficient for just about anything except fuel. Especially for food of course, though a case could be made that rising fuel/energy costs will affect everything.

Still, it hasn't been THAT long ago that people didn't HAVE a lot of the things that depend the most on energy and foreign trade, so the knowledge and experience is there to go back; Anyone up-country over age 40 most definitely remembers how to handle a buffalo.

No worries. How did that claim of one of the historical kings of Sukhothai go.. As long as there is rice in the fields and fish in the sea...

Good post and much more realistic than the doom and gloom of Swain - straight out of a nerdy novel that one.

One point though - people react more when their expectations if a rising standard of living are taken away than when they have always had nothing - this may cause problems.

ahhh well... maybe... but these things are already starting to take place.... slowly now sure...but its basic supply and demand. The only nerdy part of my post is the alternative fuel and energy sources. I have a strong belief that we will rise to meet the challenges set before us. We will adapt, but you are delusional if you feel you can continue business as usual.

[Heng]

Business as usual has always involved adapting.

[h90]

well the self-sufficient farmer, if he listened to HM the kings ideas, will put in the palm-oil fuel in his tractor and let the ducks and fishes put their excrements into the rice field.

All that works perfect, just the rice output is a bit lower (but you get fish and duck for free). So these small self-sufficient farmers will be more competitive as higher the oil gets.

[Prakanong]

I have read that Thailand is self-sufficient in rice.

Um, a lot more than self-sufficient; Thailand is a major rice exporter. Thailand is the Saudi Arabia of Rice.

On an up-country village level, Thailand is self-sufficient for just about anything except fuel. Especially for food of course, though a case could be made that rising fuel/energy costs will affect everything.

Still, it hasn't been THAT long ago that people didn't HAVE a lot of the things that depend the most on energy and foreign trade, so the knowledge and experience is there to go back; Anyone up-country over age 40 most definitely remembers how to handle a buffalo.

No worries. How did that claim of one of the historical kings of Sukhothai go.. As long as there is rice in the fields and fish in the sea...

Good post and much more realistic than the doom and gloom of Swain - straight out of a nerdy novel that one.

One point though - people react more when their expectations if a rising standard of living are taken away than when they have always had nothing - this may cause problems.

ahhh well... maybe... but these things are already starting to take place.... slowly now sure...but its basic supply and demand. The only nerdy part of my post is the alternative fuel and energy sources. I have a strong belief that we will rise to meet the challenges set before us. We will adapt, but you are delusional if you feel you can continue business as usual.

Of course we will adapt and innovate but it will not involve most of the doomsday scenario you talk about

What is business as usual - we have had much higher inflation than this before in the 70's. Back then most ordinary middle classs people in say the UK and USA did not fly halfway around to tropical destinations for holidays - that was the realm of the rich.

200USD oil - up another 50 from now - nah not that much difference to my life. I will still be on that A380 in business class to the UK a couple of times a year and flying around the region too.

[Prakanong]

well the self-sufficient farmer, if he listened to HM the kings ideas, will put in the palm-oil fuel in his tractor and let the ducks and fishes put their excrements into the rice field.

All that works perfect, just the rice output is a bit lower (but you get fish and duck for free). So these small self-sufficient farmers will be more competitive as higher the oil gets.

If they are self sufficient who are they competitive with?

So you wish grinding poverty on these farmers do you?

[slapout]

200 dollar oil may decrease the number of plastic bags floating around. 1 ton of plastic requires 16+- bbl of oil.

[Cuban]

Look around you before you read the next line.

A wise man once said, "If you have it - it was delivered by truck."

Think about that for one moment, regardless of the item in question whether it is a computer or sack of corn, a shirt or a ton of dirt it arrived by truck.

Thailand might be up to it's ears in rice - but that is in Issan and the hungry mouths are in the cities.

Fuel is required to move items from A to B.

[Boater]

200 dollar oil may decrease the number of plastic bags floating around. 1 ton of plastic requires 16+- bbl of oil.

Hmm 7/11 could help here by not giving out so many plastic bags!, and also straws

[Scott]

The 'natural' methods are pretty difficult to use these days--and I am not against them at all. The ducks in the rice field run the risk of bird flu and we all know what happens with that scenario--so a lot of farmers are left with chemical fertilizer. As these prices rise, then food prices rise, or production drops and food prices still rise. Then there's the crops used for ethanol.

We also have to remember we have a huge population world-wide, and most of these people are dependent in one way or another on oil. All need food.

Socially, people who are poor don't often cause too many problems (an oversimplification, I know), but people who have sniffed a better life can get pretty agitated when they start slipping back into poverty. Gov'ts all over the world need to protect their own people and of course, their own votes, and with higher prices, inflation and what's looking like a lot of lay offs, I think we are in for some turbulent times.

Can we survive this, most likely, but in the short term, there could be some really big problems.

[cynthialee]

Why does mcdoanlds wrap a burger in wrap then put it in a paper bag then a plastic one if you want take out. Do they own thai bag manufacturesrs. Talk about being unfriendly to the green movement.

[Ulysses G.]

Why does mcdoanlds wrap a burger in wrap then put it in a paper bag then a plastic one if you want take out.

Perhaps to keep the food warm for a longer period of time?

[jumnien]

Why does mcdoanlds wrap a burger in wrap then put it in a paper bag then a plastic one if you want take out.

Perhaps to keep the food warm for a longer period of time?

And make it easier to carry?

[dumball]

Look around you before you read the next line.

A wise man once said, "If you have it - it was delivered by truck."

Think about that for one moment, regardless of the item in question whether it is a computer or sack of corn, a shirt or a ton of dirt it arrived by truck.

Thailand might be up to it's ears in rice - but that is in Issan and the hungry mouths are in the cities.

Fuel is required to move items from A to B.

I see no mention of a bio-gaz system on these pages , the 'Fuels' to feed them are free in the villages , pig and cow manure , with water added , methane gas is produced which will run the generator (modified) to produce free electricity which in turn will operate water pumps etc . Any gas engine can be modified to run on this fuel , so you also have free operation of truck and moto , the end product of the process is envirometaly friendly fertiliser which remove another large expense , this gas was used in WW11 for vehicles as petrol was heavily rationed . A bio-gaz ststem can be purchased from World-Vision for $250.00 , i found that information at World-Vision NZ for anyone interested .

[siamamerican]

The real alternative fuel sources and energy production alternatives will surface as oil companies will no longer be able to suppress information effectively. Adversity is the mother of invention. Also, we will be going back to basics.. Growing what you can on any piece of land you have. Minimal travel. Local farmers will do better as cheap alternatives will not be able to be shipped in cheaply. Local production of clothes and house hold items will start to be the norm. The extended family will become much more extended...pollution will decrease, starvation will increase. Birth rate will drop, and death from disease we thought we destroyed long ago will resurface and rise. Banks foreclosing at record levels. housing prices will plummet in price. Squatting will rise. crime will increase ... for basic survival. Air travel for only the very rich, so tourism will all but disappear. Export except to local countries and very rich countries will dry up. This of course is already starting to happen but slowly, if fuel prices keep going south it could get much worse. A slow rise would have helped us ease into this new lifestyle but seems we are taking the express train at the moment....

Agree, "Adversity is the mother of invention". The rest of your post kind of contradicts this statement.

If prices stay at their current levels or rise, which none of us really have a clue, then people will adjust. It all starts with America, which is by far the largest consumer of oil per capita. You are already seeing public transportation use at all time highs. Metro property values are doing fine while home values further out are plummeting. GM might seek BK protection while Honda with its more efficient cars are being purchase quicker than the assembly lines can spit them out.

If it weren't for all the affluent people in todays world that can afford to use more energy, we wouldn't have this problem. The new uppity wealthy masses in China need to stop wreaking havoc on my wasteful habits. Because their success, I now piss in the sink to conserve water and can't solo commute to work in my gas guzzling hummer.

[tartempion]

Biggest benefit miht be reduction in low cost airlines and low value tourism, as travel becomes more of an exclusive activity. I don't think this escapes the hotels, as they are increasingly moving upmarket, thank goodness.

$200 oil is not that bad;

How will reduction in low cost airlines and low value tourism benefit anything, please enlighten me?

I worked for an airline in the 70thies and were hit hard by the then high fuel prices.

We could hardly pay our employees salaries at end of month, delayed bill payment as much as possible (which you can not do for fuel, invoices must be paid within 7 days) and were at the edge of bankruptcy, the then following oil price drop saved a thousand jobs for just one company.

I don't dare to imagine what will go on when airlines start cancelling orders for hundreds of planes when people stop flying.

No doubt this will happen soon. I have an other 10 flights planned this year but stopped all further travelling plans, I don't think I am the only one reducing travelling (plane, car: I reduced my shopping excursions to one trip to Udon/week) The only thing I don't reduce are my bicycle rides...

I do believe this oil bubble will burst one day (like all previous bubbles did - Thailand 1997 -2000 high tech stock bubble - 2007 house market bubble and both 1970 oil bubbles) , the only question is how soon or too late for hundred of millions of people?

[tartempion]

200 dollar oil may decrease the number of plastic bags floating around. 1 ton of plastic requires 16+- bbl of oil.

Hmm 7/11 could help here by not giving out so many plastic bags!, and also straws

Please note I clean and reuse my straws (and I am French, not Dutch ) and I also refuse the plastic bag for my farmers bread which is already packed in plastic anyway.

So it is YOU who should refuse the plastic bags!!!

But I have a huge collection of plastic spoons which come with every pack of 4 Dutch Mill yoghurt

[wolfmanjack]

Look around you before you read the next line.

A wise man once said, "If you have it - it was delivered by truck."

Think about that for one moment, regardless of the item in question whether it is a computer or sack of corn, a shirt or a ton of dirt it arrived by truck.

Thailand might be up to it's ears in rice - but that is in Issan and the hungry mouths are in the cities.

Fuel is required to move items from A to B.

Wagons were used before trucks and can be again. Create a better railway system and use wagons with buffalo to get the product to the train. Then the cities will be supplied with as little petro as possible.

[wolfmanjack]

Look around you before you read the next line.

A wise man once said, "If you have it - it was delivered by truck."

Think about that for one moment, regardless of the item in question whether it is a computer or sack of corn, a shirt or a ton of dirt it arrived by truck.

Thailand might be up to it's ears in rice - but that is in Issan and the hungry mouths are in the cities.

Fuel is required to move items from A to B.

I see no mention of a bio-gaz system on these pages , the 'Fuels' to feed them are free in the villages , pig and cow manure , with water added , methane gas is produced which will run the generator (modified) to produce free electricity which in turn will operate water pumps etc . Any gas engine can be modified to run on this fuel , so you also have free operation of truck and moto , the end product of the process is envirometaly friendly fertiliser which remove another large expense , this gas was used in WW11 for vehicles as petrol was heavily rationed . A bio-gaz ststem can be purchased from World-Vision for $250.00 , i found that information at World-Vision NZ for anyone interested .

Good posts. I forgot all about methane. I had a professor in

[wolfmanjack]

Look around you before you read the next line.

A wise man once said, "If you have it - it was delivered by truck."

Think about that for one moment, regardless of the item in question whether it is a computer or sack of corn, a shirt or a ton of dirt it arrived by truck.

Thailand might be up to it's ears in rice - but that is in Issan and the hungry mouths are in the cities.

Fuel is required to move items from A to B.

I see no mention of a bio-gaz system on these pages , the 'Fuels' to feed them are free in the villages , pig and cow manure , with water added , methane gas is produced which will run the generator (modified) to produce free electricity which in turn will operate water pumps etc . Any gas engine can be modified to run on this fuel , so you also have free operation of truck and moto , the end product of the process is envirometaly friendly fertiliser which remove another large expense , this gas was used in WW11 for vehicles as petrol was heavily rationed . A bio-gaz ststem can be purchased from World-Vision for $250.00 , i found that information at World-Vision NZ for anyone interested .

Good posts. I forgot all about methane. I had a professor in college that had a 100% self sustained house. He had his toilets run into a tank and used the methane produced to cook with. I also read about farmers that put the cow/pig poop in a tank mixed with water to make methane then used the liquid as fertilizer.

Good idea about using methane a fuel for the motorbike or car. Free fuel and free fertilizer. What more could a farmer want.

[h90]

well the self-sufficient farmer, if he listened to HM the kings ideas, will put in the palm-oil fuel in his tractor and let the ducks and fishes put their excrements into the rice field.

All that works perfect, just the rice output is a bit lower (but you get fish and duck for free). So these small self-sufficient farmers will be more competitive as higher the oil gets.

If they are self sufficient who are they competitive with?

So you wish grinding poverty on these farmers do you?

you should read a bit about it......

who has a better life: a labour, earning 6.000 Baht in Bangkok, renting a small room, buying his food, beeing basically a slave.

Or a farmer, living on his land, earning 2.000 Baht by selling food, getting food for free, having 2.000 on hand every month.

just one of our friends, female who just married, working on rubber farms but don't own one inch own land, bought a house for 200.000 financed with her work.

money is not much, but she has 0 expenses.

self-sufficient means the way out of poverty...you won't get millionaire but you get it better than a factory worker, with higher food prices and rubber or palm oil you can even get rich.