Rubber Farm Expenses And Revenue Spreadsheet

[Pakeha]

I'm working on this spreadsheet to forecast revenue and expenses, and therefore income from a rubber farm.

It's very basic at this stage but that's why I'm calling it a working document. If anyone is interested in downloading it - go for it. If anyone is keen on improving on it - even better. I even look forward to criticism.

What I'm really looking for is input into the additional costs associated with operating a rubber farm.

The yeilds are based on what I've read on this forum.

rubberfarm_rev_exp_forecast.xls

[Pakeha]

I'm working on this spreadsheet to forecast revenue and expenses, and therefore income from a rubber farm.

It's very basic at this stage but that's why I'm calling it a working document. If anyone is interested in downloading it - go for it. If anyone is keen on improving on it - even better. I even look forward to criticism.

What I'm really looking for is input into the additional costs associated with operating a rubber farm.

The yeilds are based on what I've read on this forum.

**You need to click on the '10 years' tab at the bottom to get to the right spreadsheet.

**Also, this is based on 6 rai only.

Edited July 15, 2008 by byoung2

[SAP]

I made this up about 2.5 yrs ago.

I just doubled the fertilizer cost, and posted it for anyone interested. The land preparation has probably gone up as well and needs to be adjusted

Key points to Ag

Value of Land & Cost of Inputs

Vs.

End value of product & and capital gain.

400 kg/rai is still a conservative yield. 600-800 kg/rai are consistently achieved.

And will rubber prices hold when in the next few years approx 1 squllion rai of rubber will come on line for harvesting, in Isarn, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Southern China??

The budget is based on purchasing 50 rai of land at 45,000 baht per rai.

SAP

Plantation_Budget_I.xls

Edited July 15, 2008 by SAP

[Pakeha]

I made this up about 2.5 yrs ago.

I just doubled the fertilizer cost, and posted it for anyone interested. The land preparation has probably gone up as well and needs to be adjusted

Key points to Ag

Value of Land & Cost of Inputs

Vs.

End value of product & and capital gain.

400 kg/rai is still a conservative yield. 600-800 kg/rai are consistently achieved.

And will rubber prices hold when in the next few years approx 1 squllion rai of rubber will come on line for harvesting, in Isarn, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Southern China??

The budget is based on purchasing 50 rai of land at 45,000 baht per rai.

SAP

Thanks SAP.

That's excellent. How many trees per rai do you base your yield on?

The deal I thought was before me is slowly looking worse and worse as we talk to more people around the area... It turns out there are only 300 trees on 6 rai. This seems very low to me and I can't imagine a profitable (or even breakeven) yield from this.

I still think rubber prices have to hold / go up. Everything else is! Even with hybrid fuel people still need tyres. We don't have to worry until they introduce little flying cars.

By comparison, do you think the better investment is bare land and planting yourslef and waiting 7 years or harvestable trees - i.e. 7 years or older?

Cheers.

byoung2

[Mosha]

You should be able to get around 75 to 80 trees per rai

[Pakeha]

You should be able to get around 75 to 80 trees per rai

Cheers.

I expect you would need to for it to be commercially viable.

[SAP]

I would get an expert to look at your tree's. I know some guys that have brought some already producing rubber, and they are very happy. Again it comes to economics.

To do all yourseld I would look up around the Isarn area as I believe the land here will be cheaper. Bare/scrub land can be brought from 10,000 upto 25,000 bt/rai if you hunt around. By doing it yourself you can have more control over the potential yield.

75 tree's / rai seems to be the minimum number I have heard.

SAP

[maipasathai]

With a 7mx3m pattern you will have 76 tree/rai. I started my rubber path i month ago with 14 rai (1000+ tree) and my goal is to do 10 rai/year up to 65 rai (5000 trees).

The economic outcome after 7 years is still in the blue. The dark clouds I see is how all these new plantation and a possible declining oil price ( a lot can happen in seven years) will affect the price. The real big problem will be to find SKILLED people to do the cutting, and I think when the time comes it will be more likely to share 50/50 due to lack of labour. Of course everybody can cut trees, but if they don't do a good job they for sure will make damage to the trees and in worst case I maybe only have ten years of tapping.

Anyway it's just a hobby, but always nice if I can stay out of the red figures.

[howieae]

With a 7mx3m pattern you will have 76 tree/rai. I started my rubber path i month ago with 14 rai (1000+ tree) and my goal is to do 10 rai/year up to 65 rai (5000 trees).

The economic outcome after 7 years is still in the blue. The dark clouds I see is how all these new plantation and a possible declining oil price ( a lot can happen in seven years) will affect the price. The real big problem will be to find SKILLED people to do the cutting, and I think when the time comes it will be more likely to share 50/50 due to lack of labour. Of course everybody can cut trees, but if they don't do a good job they for sure will make damage to the trees and in worst case I maybe only have ten years of tapping.

Anyway it's just a hobby, but always nice if I can stay out of the red figures.

Hi, I am interested in your labour discussion. How many tappers/labour do you need for say 5,000 trees.

[maipasathai]

From what I gathered so far, mostly from TV, it seems as one man can do about 7 rai, so approximately 10 people for 65 rai.

I can be wrong. If so grateful if somebody with more knowledge can correct me.

[Mosha]

My wife's son in law reckons he can do 600 trees a night. Also bear in mind depending on cutting regime, on any one day you could be resting between 25 and 33% of the trees. My sister in laws 2 Burma are looking after 1500 trees. They cut every tree between them for 3 nights and rest them all for 1 on the same night.

[maipasathai]

My wife's son in law reckons he can do 600 trees a night. Also bear in mind depending on cutting regime, on any one day you could be resting between 25 and 33% of the trees. My sister in laws 2 Burma are looking after 1500 trees. They cut every tree between them for 3 nights and rest them all for 1 on the same night.

Your sisters in law seems to do the work. If you have half a dozen more of them, please send me their contact details.

I'm afraid that the people in my area can do only 50 trees and a few bottle of Lao Kaow.

Edited January 7, 2009 by maipasathai

[Roly69440]

Hi

What an informative site. I'm just in the process of purchasing 60 Rai around Sikhio with an interest in starting a Rubber plantation and increasing it annually as land becomes available. Are there any members growing rubber in or around Sikhio that i could visit or get in touch with, with regards to the actual pro's and con's of the industry.

Roly

[Mentors]

the technique ist also important, not just the number of trees.

[David006]

I'm working on this spreadsheet to forecast revenue and expenses, and therefore income from a rubber farm.

It's very basic at this stage but that's why I'm calling it a working document. If anyone is interested in downloading it - go for it. If anyone is keen on improving on it - even better. I even look forward to criticism.

What I'm really looking for is input into the additional costs associated with operating a rubber farm.

The yeilds are based on what I've read on this forum.

Interesting concept..a few observations/questions from our experience on our 85 rai plantation of which only 20 is producing from mature trees.

How old are the trees?

How many Rai?

rubber price fluctuations.

what rubber are you selling ie sheet, latex liquid rubber water Thais call it), hardened ruber left in cups..all affects price..

feeding trees

anti-fungal treatment

anti termite treatment

days (not )cutting..due to 1 in 6 rest for trees, rain, leaf fall/flowering and sick cutters..

just a few things would like to see your progress?

Have you a farm already or are you just doing a business case/

good cuuting and hope to hear from you.

david

[David006]

I'm working on this spreadsheet to forecast revenue and expenses, and therefore income from a rubber farm.

It's very basic at this stage but that's why I'm calling it a working document. If anyone is interested in downloading it - go for it. If anyone is keen on improving on it - even better. I even look forward to criticism.

What I'm really looking for is input into the additional costs associated with operating a rubber farm.

The yeilds are based on what I've read on this forum.

Interesting concept..a few observations/questions from our experience on our 85 rai plantation of which only 20 is producing from mature trees.

How old are the trees?

How many Rai?

rubber price fluctuations.

what rubber are you selling ie sheet, latex liquid rubber water Thais call it), hardened ruber left in cups..all affects price..

feeding trees

anti-fungal treatment

anti termite treatment

days (not )cutting..due to 1 in 6 rest for trees, rain, leaf fall/flowering and sick cutters..

just a few things would like to see your progress?

Have you a farm already or are you just doing a business case/

good cuuting and hope to hear from you.

david

[Pakeha]

Interesting concept..a few observations/questions from our experience on our 85 rai plantation of which only 20 is producing from mature trees.

How old are the trees?

How many Rai?

rubber price fluctuations.

what rubber are you selling ie sheet, latex liquid rubber water Thais call it), hardened ruber left in cups..all affects price..

feeding trees

anti-fungal treatment

anti termite treatment

days (not )cutting..due to 1 in 6 rest for trees, rain, leaf fall/flowering and sick cutters..

just a few things would like to see your progress?

Have you a farm already or are you just doing a business case/

good cuuting and hope to hear from you.

david

Hi David. Good to pick up this topic again. I was doing a business case to establish the viability of a rubber farm vs other investments I was looking at. We were seriously looking at some land with rubber trees at the time of my OP. For various reasons we decided not to buy the land, which I'm quite glad about now to be fair.

I still hope to have a rubber farm in the future but for now I'll be investing elsewhere. I am trying to constantly learn about the rubber farming business though. Some of the points you have raised I have not heard before - anti-termite treatment.

I'll be back in April and will be looking at the local industry then and what impact the world economy is having at the coal face of the rubber industry. There may be some good deals on land in the near future? Fire sales? For me, the startup capital required needs to be relatively low to warrant investing. I'd want a cash neutral, if not cash positive operation from day one and with the current price of rubber that's a big ask!

[David006]

Interesting concept..a few observations/questions from our experience on our 85 rai plantation of which only 20 is producing from mature trees.

How old are the trees?

How many Rai?

rubber price fluctuations.

what rubber are you selling ie sheet, latex liquid rubber water Thais call it), hardened ruber left in cups..all affects price..

feeding trees

anti-fungal treatment

anti termite treatment

days (not )cutting..due to 1 in 6 rest for trees, rain, leaf fall/flowering and sick cutters..

just a few things would like to see your progress?

Have you a farm already or are you just doing a business case/

good cuuting and hope to hear from you.

david

Hi David. Good to pick up this topic again. I was doing a business case to establish the viability of a rubber farm vs other investments I was looking at. We were seriously looking at some land with rubber trees at the time of my OP. For various reasons we decided not to buy the land, which I'm quite glad about now to be fair.

I still hope to have a rubber farm in the future but for now I'll be investing elsewhere. I am trying to constantly learn about the rubber farming business though. Some of the points you have raised I have not heard before - anti-termite treatment.

I'll be back in April and will be looking at the local industry then and what impact the world economy is having at the coal face of the rubber industry. There may be some good deals on land in the near future? Fire sales? For me, the startup capital required needs to be relatively low to warrant investing. I'd want a cash neutral, if not cash positive operation from day one and with the current price of rubber that's a big ask!

Hi again: Good choice..think the Thais maybe going back to the farm so to speak..not heard what the price per Rai is these days but as they say in the west ..buy land they ain't making any more. You probably wont lose but the bigger the investment the harder to sell again in a Thai only market, should you wish. We bought in 2005 for about 50 k per rai average (non Chanote, 600 producing trees and another 3000 @ 2 yrs) from "in debt" individuals so this is a good option. Need to get an ear among the locals for the bargains but best keep out of sight yourself..... as you can imagine soon as the foreigner waves his wallet .....

good luck

regrds

david

[Mosha]

It could be a bargain year later on. If my wife is any measure of how the Thais are thinking. Global financial crisis, what crisis.

[David006]

Hi all:

Up to now we have had various peoples cutting and stealing from our rubber trees. We are now starting to cut ourselves with family..So a couple of questions re the sale of the latex..

1: Where do these local buyers get their daily pricing to assess what they give you for the latex or..

2. What exactly are they doing with the SG ..seems they add water to a litre or so.. take the SG then pluck a % out of the air based thereon. What should the SG be? On average seems to be 25-30% of the buying price?? Easy to manipulate it seems though my wife assures me they can be trusted....mmmmm

Any knowledgeable people out there with some insight .....

..much appreciated .. many thanks in advance

david

Trang

[jamescollister]

Hello Trang

If you type [james collister] into youtube you will see that I have posted 5 or 6 vidios on the subject. You should find most of the answers in them somewhere. If you have any other questions not covered, I will be happy try and answer them, if I know. Jim

[aniMAL]

Hello Trang

If you type [james collister] into youtube you will see that I have posted 5 or 6 vidios on the subject. You should find most of the answers in them somewhere. If you have any other questions not covered, I will be happy try and answer them, if I know. Jim

Hi Jim,

thanks for the youtube link. Looks like some interesting stuff there! I'll take a better look later, when i can get to a faster internet connection.

Mal

[iz5bxf]

Hallo all, i would like to ask you something regarding the expenses. I understand that more or less you have to consider a 40% expenses on your rubber production. What i'm asking is if in this 40% you are considering also the payment you have to provide to the man working in collecting rubber. Because i often heard in isaan that you do something like.... 50% with the man work in your plantation. But it look like lot of money. What do you know about ?

[jamescollister]

Hallo all, i would like to ask you something regarding the expenses. I understand that more or less you have to consider a 40% expenses on your rubber production. What i'm asking is if in this 40% you are considering also the payment you have to provide to the man working in collecting rubber. Because i often heard in isaan that you do something like.... 50% with the man work in your plantation. But it look like lot of money. What do you know about ?

Hello

As a general rule a 40/60 and you pay for the fetiliser or 50/50 and the worker pays. Though it is the way of the locals I am not too keen on the system. You may be lucky and get a good worker, but you may get a guy who is happy to just get by and when he has made enough money for the week/month, it's time to sleep and drink Lao Kow. Once you make a deal it is very hard to get rid of your tenent tapper. Using family can be even worse if they are not trustworthy and you have no chance of getting rid of them.

If you are big enough to be using lots of tappers better to pay them by day, week or tree. That way you can hire others when your people take off to collect mushrooms,go fishing or tend there rice paddies

Hope that helps. JIM

[iz5bxf]

Thanks, sounds good. In the origin i suppose to have 40% of expenses for rubber tapping and than on the 60% remaining i have to share with the worker. Instead you are telling me that more or less the expensis are few (i suppose formic acid) so if you sell rubber for 1000 bath gross amount 500 or 600 bath will come into your pocket.

By the way, what are you saying is incredible true. All the people around the world look for a job and there...... you know, in the next month i want to start collecting rubber so i say to the people: I can assure a job for you for next 20 years..... instead of to be happy... i can't find anyone. They do not really interested to have a fix job. They prefer to harvest rice a couple of time a year and relax the other time.... may be that's the right way.... who knows...

Today near nongkhai in the rubber research center start a 3 days training on how to collect rubber. I want to bring there 4 people but no chance, i can't find people. Also other friend have rubber there in the village are looking for worker but it isn't so easy to find. Any suggestion?

I'm lucky because now i have my brother in law that care of rubber and palm without... lao kow ;-) but he cannot work all the plantation.

Ciao and thank you so much !

[jamescollister]

Yes labour is a big problem and will get worse in the future,but in the short term there should be people returning to the villages from BKK [lots of people being laid off]

I hear that in Malaysia, due to higher wages and factory jobs tappers can get 80% , Not much profit. If you are really stuck and can not get anyone you can always get workers from Burma. I don't know the procedure, but you can legally apply to hire them.

Best of luck and keep me posted as to how you are going. JIM

[Mosha]

In Ranong the police have just done a head count of the Burmese. The rumour is there will be no more ic cards of tags for the Burmese not on the list in future.

The official figure is that there are approx 2 Burma/Thai. The local feeling is it is nearer 5 to 1. If you hire immigrant labour make sure they have papers already. You will only make trouble for yourself down the road if they are not registered. Although the feeling is that the Burma may steel some rubber, you can count on them being there. As has been said, once the Thais have enough money to go out and get pissed you may not see them for a while. The local system seems to be 40 for the tapper 60 for you if it's Burma tappers. 50/50 if you use Thais. I have been told by some sources that some farmers are now only paying Burma 30% to compensate for the price drop in the rubber.

[barrybike]

hi all ive 150 rai of rubber trees in dan sai ,loei ,little over 12,000 trees sowed , they are going on 2 years old now ........do any of ye have a rough idea what we will get back from them when they are ready to harvest , i suppose another 3 or 4 years time they will be getting ready to take rubber from them .......

any information would be great thanks ,,,,,,,,,barry

[jamescollister]

Hello Barry

Sounds like you have gotten into rubber in a big way and not done much homework. How much you get depends more on you then the trees. Do you live on or near the plantation.If not you will get what [ whoever is running the show] gives you. Not much I would bet. As I have said before, you can't be an absentee land lord,you can not control anything, money you send for fertiliser etc can just go into someones pocket. Your workers will sit round drinking etc. and you are talking a lot of money to maintain 150 Rai of rubber.

On the bright side when all the trees are up and running and you are getting your true returns, even if it is not run very well, you should get over $50,000 US a year.

The whole rubber game is a mine field for the unwary, thats why you see such big differences in the price of mature plantations, A plantation of 150 Rai of good trees on good land with proper title would be worth [on paper] over 1.5 million US. Bad trees bad land bad title would be worth the lumber value.

Hope thats not too depressing a reply, hope it all goes will, best of luck JIM

[Pakeha]

hi all ive 150 rai of rubber trees in dan sai ,loei ,little over 12,000 trees sowed , they are going on 2 years old now ........do any of ye have a rough idea what we will get back from them when they are ready to harvest , i suppose another 3 or 4 years time they will be getting ready to take rubber from them .......

any information would be great thanks ,,,,,,,,,barry

From SAP's earlier post: "400 kg/rai is still a conservative yield. 600-800 kg/rai are consistently achieved."

So this is the harvest. Times that with your forecasted price of rubber (crystal ball gazing) and you will have your revenue. Take the expenses from this figure and you should have your gross profit. As others have pointed out the expenses can vary wildly based on many things so difficult for anyone else to advise you on.

Sounds like you have a big project underway. Good luck with it and let us know how things work out. Any photos?