Help . . . Is The £ Going Into Free-fall?

[DavidOxon]

Hi guys . . . .

we're about to sign the contract to start building our house

and I need to transfer 750.000 bht soonish (next 3 weeks)

Would you

transfer now

transfer later

mixture of the two?

Every time I check the rate it's dropped another few satngs.

Just my luck to be stuck in the UK in July when the rate was much better!

David

PS Can I go into my Thai bank with a charged up debit card and take the lot out in one go?

[issanpaul]

Hi guys . . . .

we're about to sign the contract to start building our house

and I need to transfer 750.000 bht soonish (next 3 weeks)

Would you

transfer now

transfer later

mixture of the two?

Every time I check the rate it's dropped another few satngs.

Just my luck to be stuck in the UK in July when the rate was much better!

David

PS Can I go into my Thai bank with a charged up debit card and take the lot out in one go?

Anybodys guess Transfer now or Later,

but yes you can go with a charged up debit card and take the lot out in 1 go (Bangkok bank anyway)

[GuestHouse]

mixture of the two!

And if you have never done a transfer before, make sure that you:

• do a test transfer with a small amount of money to test the system
  
• transfer hard currency to Thailand and do the exchange in Thailand
  
• obtain a certificate of transfer for each amount with the stated aim of buying a house clearly indicated.
  

[Bangyai]

See what the dollar is doing and is going to be doing in the near future. Dollar strong = Thai baht strong. With all the political termoil it is likely that the Thai economy is in for a tough time, especially with regards to the tourist industry. If the dollar stays strong and the Baht follows whoever is running the show in 6 months from now may have to devalue the baht again to try to lure back tourists etc. Only change as much as you have to.

[trd]

See what the dollar is doing and is going to be doing in the near future. Dollar strong = Thai baht strong. With all the political termoil it is likely that the Thai economy is in for a tough time, especially with regards to the tourist industry. If the dollar stays strong and the Baht follows whoever is running the show in 6 months from now may have to devalue the baht again to try to lure back tourists etc. Only change as much as you have to.

There is no way the baht would be devalued to lure back tourists. It doesn't work like that. Tourism accounts for only 7% of GDP. Rice export prices are more important than tourists. It depends what you are exchanging against. So while it is true that the pound fell dramatically against the USD recently, as did the euro and aussie for that matter, the pound is not in freefall against the baht. In the last 3 years the GBPTHB hit it's lowest low at the end of December last year (about 57) Today it is 61.6. I expect to see further weakening of the baht considering the current political situation and state of the economy here which would further help on GBP xchange. The dollar has also strengthened against the baht.

[chiang mai]

Hopefully you will read the other threads currently active on this forum to arrive at your answer. In a nutshell, the rate is not going to get better any time soon and indeed there is a very strong potential that it will get much worse.

[DavidOxon]

Hopefully you will read the other threads currently active on this forum to arrive at your answer. In a nutshell, the rate is not going to get better any time soon and indeed there is a very strong potential that it will get much worse.

Thanks . . . yes I have read all other posts about the currency situations for the last 12 month.

I was just wondering what other folk would do in my position of watching the rate drop every time I look, then nudge up again

when I'm not looking! Maybe I should stop looking and go and join PAD to speed along

another political crisis to get the rate I'd be happier with!

D

[Kadafi]

I'm in the same situation as where i'm planning to transfer 4 million baht in around 3/4 weeks time, it could destroy my plans as there is no way i will transfer it if the rate drops much lower. I just hope the problems continue in Thailand, though even after all whats been going on the sterling continues to decline on the baht (now 61.7 THB/GBP, 5 odd weeks ago we were at 67 THB/GBP)...

[chiang mai]

Let me put this another way, the future for Sterling is about as bad as it has ever been for the the past fifteen years and the prognosis for the future is dire. As we speak the Pound is around the 1.80 Dollar level and the next resistance is around 1.75 - as the Dollar climbs against the Pound so the Pound loses against the Baht. If I was in the situation of needing to transfer Pounds into Baht in any great quantity I would assess whether I really really had to do it and if I had a choice, I wouldn't. If I didn't have a choice then I would do it today because tomorrow the rate will be worse. Don't get hung up on watching small ups and downs of the Baht value against the Pound because those are just normal trading fluctuations - the trend is however very clearly down with almost no potential for an upside.

[PCA]

DavidOxon,

If you must make the transfer within the next 3 weeks then do half of it now and the rest when your timely deadline is reached. Therewith you have the current rate for half of the ammount secured and the other half will either give you a profit or a loss compared to the first tranche. That might later on in hindsight not have been the optimal solution but since you are watching the slide and hesitating at least you would have done something against the most probably continuing down slide.

This advise is not a good one for Kadafi as obviously he needs to change his plan in case of a few percent points and would rather wish me bad dreams when he sold a temporary bottom. What I would do in his situation is to send the whole lot right now if this is the rate he still can live with and never look back afterwards.

[lannarebirth]

Let me put this another way, the future for Sterling is about as bad as it has ever been for the the past fifteen years and the prognosis for the future is dire. As we speak the Pound is around the 1.80 Dollar level and the next resistance is around 1.75 - as the Dollar climbs against the Pound so the Pound loses against the Baht. If I was in the situation of needing to transfer Pounds into Baht in any great quantity I would assess whether I really really had to do it and if I had a choice, I wouldn't. If I didn't have a choice then I would do it today because tomorrow the rate will be worse. Don't get hung up on watching small ups and downs of the Baht value against the Pound because those are just normal trading fluctuations - the trend is however very clearly down with almost no potential for an upside.

Well, I would stop short of making absolute proclamations. It isn't strong and it closed Friday at some support. It's down today on a day when US markets are closed. Anything could happen over the course of a day a week or a month,but charts strongly suggest it's pretty weak. I would never suggest to someone what or when they should make a financial transaction, but if they ask I'll tell them what I'm seeing, which of course, could be wrong.

[Chaimai]

I'm in the same situation as where i'm planning to transfer 4 million baht in around 3/4 weeks time, it could destroy my plans as there is no way i will transfer it if the rate drops much lower. I just hope the problems continue in Thailand, though even after all whats been going on the sterling continues to decline on the baht (now 61.7 THB/GBP, 5 odd weeks ago we were at 67 THB/GBP)...

Try this one:-

http://www.ratesfx.com/cgi-bin/dataview.pl...p;t=52&l=en

I recall it was under 60 around New Year ?

Then try this one from 1996:-

http://www.x-rates.com/d/THB/GBP/hist1996.html

I think a few will remember 39 baht to the GBP, yes GBP - not USD

[lannarebirth]

DavidOxon,

If you must make the transfer within the next 3 weeks then do half of it now and the rest when your timely deadline is reached. Therewith you have the current rate for half of the ammount secured and the other half will either give you a profit or a loss compared to the first tranche. That might later on in hindsight not have been the optimal solution but since you are watching the slide and hesitating at least you would have done something against the most probably continuing down slide.

This advise is not a good one for Kadafi as obviously he needs to change his plan in case of a few percent points and would rather wish me bad dreams when he sold a temporary bottom. What I would do in his situation is to send the whole lot right now if this is the rate he still can live with and never look back afterwards.

That's good advice and I was thinking of posting the same but thought I might catch hel_l if someone didn't absolutely catch the highest tick.,

[Chaimai]

I'm in the same situation as where i'm planning to transfer 4 million baht in around 3/4 weeks time, it could destroy my plans as there is no way i will transfer it if the rate drops much lower. I just hope the problems continue in Thailand, though even after all whats been going on the sterling continues to decline on the baht (now 61.7 THB/GBP, 5 odd weeks ago we were at 67 THB/GBP)...

Not prying but what are your plans - could you take a forward option ? (fine words but I would guess forwards would carry a premium )

I made the same decision earlier this year but only on switching 2m - I got 62.5 before it edged up towards 67. Best advice as above, make your considered decision and don't look back.

Edited September 1, 2008 by Chaimai

[chiang mai]

Let me put this another way, the future for Sterling is about as bad as it has ever been for the the past fifteen years and the prognosis for the future is dire. As we speak the Pound is around the 1.80 Dollar level and the next resistance is around 1.75 - as the Dollar climbs against the Pound so the Pound loses against the Baht. If I was in the situation of needing to transfer Pounds into Baht in any great quantity I would assess whether I really really had to do it and if I had a choice, I wouldn't. If I didn't have a choice then I would do it today because tomorrow the rate will be worse. Don't get hung up on watching small ups and downs of the Baht value against the Pound because those are just normal trading fluctuations - the trend is however very clearly down with almost no potential for an upside.

Well, I would stop short of making absolute proclamations. It isn't strong and it closed Friday at some support. It's down today on a day when US markets are closed. Anything could happen over the course of a day a week or a month,but charts strongly suggest it's pretty weak. I would never suggest to someone what or when they should make a financial transaction, but if they ask I'll tell them what I'm seeing, which of course, could be wrong.

You are correct, point taken.

[DavidOxon]

I have a schedule of payments - 7 in all totalling 2m - ok, no great shakes, but I hate throwing money away

and am an avid bargin hunter!

I need 250k in 3 weeks

450k in october

then staged payments of 300, 350, 300, 250 & 100k as the building develops.

I will stop and wait if the rate goes too low, and have agreed this with the builder,

but then he points out that building costs are going up and could increase if the delay is too long!

I'm thinking of transfering 350k now and then watching, the Yahoo currency graph looks fairly bleak though!

Ho hum, you wins some and lose some! If only I'd left my cash in Euros! where it was happily

sitting at about .25% interest!

David

[Kadafi]

I'm in the same situation as where i'm planning to transfer 4 million baht in around 3/4 weeks time, it could destroy my plans as there is no way i will transfer it if the rate drops much lower. I just hope the problems continue in Thailand, though even after all whats been going on the sterling continues to decline on the baht (now 61.7 THB/GBP, 5 odd weeks ago we were at 67 THB/GBP)...

Not prying but what are your plans - could you take a forward option ? (fine words but I would guess forwards would carry a premium )

I made the same decision earlier this year but only on switching 2m - I got 62.5 before it edged up towards 67. Best advice as above, make your considered decision and don't look back.

I'm currently back in the UK tying up some plans and i will not have the money in my UK bank account for another 3-4 weeks so i am unable to transfer it now, if i had the money i would have done it a couple weeks ago when it was around 64/65-GBP.

I left Thailand first week in August to sort the cash out and few other loose ends and ever since the sterling has gone into free fall i do not have any other option but just to wait and see what the rate is at the end of September..i fear it will be around 58 but who knows, in that case i would not transfer the money (loosing nearly 10 baht to the pound in 2 months would be too much for me to bare on transferring that amount of money)...

Edited September 1, 2008 by Kadafi

[mommysboy]

As usual the markets have over adjusted and then some, on the expectation of UK interest rate cuts and an economic slump. Of course the same is to come for Thailand so the exchange rate should stabilise, but not for some time. Don't transfer any money, very bad time. I reckon it will go sub 60 for a few weeks.

Why is the bt so strong, at least relative too the pound. After all the Thai economy has high inflation, a relatively stagnant economy. and a volatile political situation ? Anyone know?

[haybilly]

I'm in the same situation as where i'm planning to transfer 4 million baht in around 3/4 weeks time, it could destroy my plans as there is no way i will transfer it if the rate drops much lower. I just hope the problems continue in Thailand, though even after all whats been going on the sterling continues to decline on the baht (now 61.7 THB/GBP, 5 odd weeks ago we were at 67 THB/GBP)...

Try this one:-

http://www.ratesfx.com/cgi-bin/dataview.pl...p;t=52&l=en

I recall it was under 60 around New Year ?

Then try this one from 1996:-

http://www.x-rates.com/d/THB/GBP/hist1996.html

I think a few will remember 39 baht to the GBP, yes GBP - not USD

But we were paying 10 baht for somtam--not 20, in those days!!

[Naam]

Ho hum, you wins some and lose some! If only I'd left my cash in Euros! where it was happily

sitting at about .25% interest!

how did you arrive at that "huge" average yield? you put 5% of your cash in a bank account and kept 95% under your mattress?

[london]

Simple statement: NEVER try to time the market.

Just do your transfers as they fall due. Some you'll be up on and some down. Thats better than risking it all for a small benefit.

At the end of the day, you really won't be that concerned....and certainly in a year or so, it will all be long forgotten: whether you had a high or low exchange rate at the time.

[lannarebirth]

As usual the markets have over adjusted and then some, on the expectation of UK interest rate cuts and an economic slump. Of course the same is to come for Thailand so the exchange rate should stabilise, but not for some time. Don't transfer any money, very bad time. I reckon it will go sub 60 for a few weeks.

Why is the bt so strong, at least relative too the pound. After all the Thai economy has high inflation, a relatively stagnant economy. and a volatile political situation ? Anyone know?

No one knows, and of course it couldn't matter less what the reasons are.

[cmsally]

Often when it falls quickly it will rally in the other direction a couple of Baht. But with the Dollar so strong its anyones guess.

Everything is relative. Last year I did a big transaction at 68/1 pound. At that point a lot of people were holding off for it to go back to 70 - and well the rest is history. But sure glad I didn't wait.

[VegasVic]

Let me put this another way, the future for Sterling is about as bad as it has ever been for the the past fifteen years and the prognosis for the future is dire. As we speak the Pound is around the 1.80 Dollar level and the next resistance is around 1.75 - as the Dollar climbs against the Pound so the Pound loses against the Baht. If I was in the situation of needing to transfer Pounds into Baht in any great quantity I would assess whether I really really had to do it and if I had a choice, I wouldn't. If I didn't have a choice then I would do it today because tomorrow the rate will be worse. Don't get hung up on watching small ups and downs of the Baht value against the Pound because those are just normal trading fluctuations - the trend is however very clearly down with almost no potential for an upside.

I find it quite interesting that the poster is concerned with a marginal fluctuation of the pound vs. baht for his current transaction, and yet he seems not to be concerned at all with the far more serious situstion of having his assets in pounds at a time when the pound has just begun a major down cycle! This brings a whole new meaning to the old English saying "penny wise and pound foolish"

[russianrobert]

But with the Dollar so strong............

Slightly off topic but there's a lot of people around who this time last year were betting we would never, ever be saying that again.

How time flys.

[Kf6vci]

If I knew the answer then I would be out there buying or selling currency futures. With all that political risk boiling over right now, you may yet see a lower Baht.

The market is expecting a rate cut by the BoE as the economy is getting worse.

There are limits on ATM or OTC cash transactions. I am quite happy with HSBC letting me send wires to Thailand without the need of filling in paperwork. Good luck. Hope you will be happy with your purchase!

[lannarebirth]

But with the Dollar so strong............

Slightly off topic but there's a lot of people around who this time last year were betting we would never, ever be saying that again.

How time flys.

Let's get back to reality, shall we?

[cloudhopper]

LRB, that value of 77.31 on the second chart EMA is what? The value of the US$ relative to all other currencies in the world?

[lannarebirth]

LRB, that value of 77.31 on the second chart EMA is what? The value of the US$ relative to all other currencies in the world?

The chart is of the $USD Index. 77.31 was it's value as of close Friday. This is the weighting of currencies in the index:

http://www.gold-prices.biz/the-us-dollar-index-is-what/

EMA means "exponential moving average". Here is a definition:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=...moving_averages

[cloudhopper]

Very informative LRB, thanks for the links.