Help . . . Is The £ Going Into Free-fall?

[Merangue]

Nobody can tell - I would just go with the trends , If you can get 52 at this time go for it - but the trend may change up or down - so I would say high 51's a good rate now .

What happens in the next weeks ? but again look at the trend and exchange on the high .

yes thanks... Im pretty sure dollar will weaken and GBP will recover to late b50s - but... who know's when? (obviously nobody) but I am contracturally obliged to settle on some property (several millions) and even a 1 THB increase is worth over 500,000 to me... I'm convinced it will happen - but when?

Well short of a fist fight i expect the ASEAN meetings will get a nice spin on them so expect the THB to rise in vlu8e slightly in the short term next week.

After that i agree with you on the 55+ scenario but when is the big question.

51's might be the best you will get for a few weeks anyway.

[apetley]

Nobody can tell - I would just go with the trends , If you can get 52 at this time go for it - but the trend may change up or down - so I would say high 51's a good rate now .

What happens in the next weeks ? but again look at the trend and exchange on the high .

yes thanks... Im pretty sure dollar will weaken and GBP will recover to late b50s - but... who know's when? (obviously nobody) but I am contracturally obliged to settle on some property (several millions) and even a 1 THB increase is worth over 500,000 to me... I'm convinced it will happen - but when?

Well short of a fist fight i expect the ASEAN meetings will get a nice spin on them so expect the THB to rise in vlu8e slightly in the short term next week.

After that i agree with you on the 55+ scenario but when is the big question.

51's might be the best you will get for a few weeks anyway.

What's your opinion now we have had the farce of the ASEAN summit in Pattaya?

[churchill]

Nobody can tell - I would just go with the trends , If you can get 52 at this time go for it - but the trend may change up or down - so I would say high 51's a good rate now .

What happens in the next weeks ? but again look at the trend and exchange on the high .

yes thanks... Im pretty sure dollar will weaken and GBP will recover to late b50s - but... who know's when? (obviously nobody) but I am contracturally obliged to settle on some property (several millions) and even a 1 THB increase is worth over 500,000 to me... I'm convinced it will happen - but when?

Well short of a fist fight i expect the ASEAN meetings will get a nice spin on them so expect the THB to rise in vlu8e slightly in the short term next week.

After that i agree with you on the 55+ scenario but when is the big question.

51's might be the best you will get for a few weeks anyway.

Given what has happened the Baht deserves to be knocked down - any guesses 5% ? or more

[ChiangMaiFun]

Nobody can tell - I would just go with the trends , If you can get 52 at this time go for it - but the trend may change up or down - so I would say high 51's a good rate now .

What happens in the next weeks ? but again look at the trend and exchange on the high .

yes thanks... Im pretty sure dollar will weaken and GBP will recover to late b50s - but... who know's when? (obviously nobody) but I am contracturally obliged to settle on some property (several millions) and even a 1 THB increase is worth over 500,000 to me... I'm convinced it will happen - but when?

Well short of a fist fight i expect the ASEAN meetings will get a nice spin on them so expect the THB to rise in vlu8e slightly in the short term next week.

After that i agree with you on the 55+ scenario but when is the big question.

51's might be the best you will get for a few weeks anyway.

Given what has happened the Baht deserves to be knocked down - any guesses 5% ? or more

its logical (but does that ever apply?) that we should get a couple more points on the GBP (53?) still I am biased as I am transferring a large sum next week and probably my thinking is somewhat hopeful - but it does seem to make sense that the turmoil cannot lead to a continuing strong THB

[Naam]

Given what has happened the Baht deserves to be knocked down - any guesses 5% ? or more

its logical (but does that ever apply?) that we should get a couple more points on the GBP (53?) still I am biased as I am transferring a large sum next week and probably my thinking is somewhat hopeful - but it does seem to make sense that the turmoil cannot lead to a continuing strong THB

there is hardly any logic behind short term currency movements. think back. we had a military coup and the Baht gained vs. USD and therefore vs. other currencies for quite a long period. it takes a long time till fundamentals make an impact. as far as THB/GBP is concerned depends mostly on USD/GBP. how the Baht fares is just a result of cross trading and of course intervention by the BOT.

[vedantafx]

I see a great deal of wishful thinking here about how much the Pound will rise vs. the Dollar in 2009, but then again I guess if I were a Brit (especially an expat brit) I would be hoping and praying for the same thing! The reality might be a little different though. The world economies are about to enter the greatest period of deflationary pressure since the great depression, and those closet goldbugs here wishing for large scale investment into commodities in 2009 will likely be extremely dissapointed The Pound and Euro will be at par at some point during Q1, but the exchange rate with the Dollar will be closer to $1.30 than $1.65 Most of The hedge funds and investment banks that were flush with cash and using 40-1 leverage to push oil, gold, copper and a host of other commodities to all time highs are no longer around, so the pipe dream that commodities will be making a comeback in 2009 may fall just a wee bit short!!! As for Mr. Mobius he has specialized in investment opportunities outside of the U.S. for the better part of the past 40 years, and was widely regarded until he got caught in the Chinese market crash and then more recently in the Russian market colapse. I am not sure what Mr Mobius is pushing these days, but I would take what he has to say with a grain of salt as his recent track record has been a little rough Merry Christmass to all and to all a good night

I agree with alot of what you say. The second part of 2009 could be profoundly deflationary, which will be USD positive. During the Great Depression markets rallied between November and April before falling a further 90%...the DOW went from 300 at its 1929 peak to 40, by 1932. It took three years. SO I would not rule out another fall, before or after the summer who knows...However, we could get a large trading range like during the 1970's...I think the GBP/USD will strengthen this year somewhat, but I can't see the 1.80 levels, certainly can go to 1.65...This rally, and what seems to be an increase in Dollar liquidity is favourble to commodities and we can then have these bear market rallys within the secular bear market.

I do think commodities are a great investment over the next 10-15 years, and will make new highs. Industrial metals will do well, with the stimulus packages leading to increased demand for these. However, there can be no denying that there are going to be severe supply side problems in commodities. So perhaps not this year, but I see post 2010 commodities rising alot. This is a traders market now. On the other hand lets take copper as an example...we have formed a long a nice base in the price over a few months, and copper is now up 80% from its lows...Many commodities have outperformed the stock market index over the last few months. It all depends on your style and timeframe. 

As for Mobius, well again it comes down to timeframe. He might be wrong in the short term, but in ten years will he still be wrong? He is a long term investor who owns high dividend paying stocks, which will be paying dividends two to three times higher than US stocks. Also, in the US 1932 was one of the three best years to buy stocks in that whole century, 1974 and 1982 being the others. So if Mobius is a trader which he is not then he is lousy. If he is longterm which he seems to be, then time will tell how could his picks are.

As for gold I expect to see gold doing well in the longterm. Gold will also do very well in a deflationary period also. The purchasing power of money goes up during a deflationary period. Well, gold is seen as money, a currency, a medium of exchange by many people, and now we see it has come into its true role as money now. It has held its purchasing power. Every currency, has went down against gold, oil priced in gold, cotton priced in gold, stocks priced in gold, houses priced in gold have all became much cheaper. The USD has strengthened somewhat against gold, but now gold has already went back to 1000USD, and has held up around 900USD now...which is the same as 1 year ago. So in deflation gold is a good, as has been evidenced  and when inflation becomes something to worry about again, gold is second to none. I dont see inflation picking up until after 2010, or whenever real estate markets bottom out. However, I see very bad inflation coming, in the next decade. A few years from now. So keeping gold is a good insuranc policy in my opinion. The recovery will be met with joy and glee, but I think recovery will lead to high inflation down the line, which in real terms means stocks and cash will lose value in real terms, even if they rise in nominal terms.

Edited April 11, 2009 by vedantafx

[vedantafx]

I think this is a very funny example of how you need to do your own research and not reply on outside authorities to tell you it will be alright.Especially governments...here is a great list of quotes from during the Great Depression, the rhetoric from the leaders and Keynesian style economists during 2008 is similar to 1929. Here is a chart to pinpoint the DOW during the time of each quote...enjoy.

"We will not have any more crashes in our time."- John Maynard Keynes in 1927 

 

"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."

- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928 

"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."

- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928 

 

"No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."

- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928 

 

"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."

- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929 

 

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."

- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929 

"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."

- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929 

"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."

- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929 

"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices." 

- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929 

 

"This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."

- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929 

"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted" 

- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929 

"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom." 

- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929 

 

"The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."

- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929 

"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."

- The Times of London, November 2, 1929 

"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before." 

- Business Week, November 2, 1929 

"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..." 

- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929 

 

"... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall." 

- HES, November 10, 1929 

"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most." 

- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929 

"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."

- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929 

"Financial storm definitely passed."

- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929 

 

"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress." 

- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929 

"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence." 

- Herbert Hoover, December 1929 

"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."

- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929 

 

"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright." 

- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930 

 

"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..." 

- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930 

 

"There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about." 

- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930 

 

"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity." 

- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930 

"... the outlook continues favorable..." 

- HES Mar 29, 1930 

 

"... the outlook is favorable..." 

- HES Apr 19, 1930 

 

"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us." 

- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930 

"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..." 

- HES May 17, 1930 

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."

- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930 

 

"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..." 

- HES June 28, 1930 

 

"... the present depression has about spent its force..." 

- HES, Aug 30, 1930 

 

"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression." 

- HES Nov 15, 1930 

 

"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible." 

- HES Oct 31, 1931 

 

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."

- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

[12DrinkMore]

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."

- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

blimey, that is a bit draconian.

Wonder if they would ever go that far again?

[ArranP]

On Bloomberg today it was announced Jim Rogers is predicting Gold will rise significantly in the next months. Apparently the movement of the price of gold moves similarly in tandem to the S&P 500 index.

If this is so then what will this do to USD currency, USD weakens as gold strengthens no ? Therefore USD will weaken against its basket of currencies, including GBP ?

Edited April 13, 2009 by ArranP

[ArranP]

I'm a bit confused, maybe I read this wrongly, I just saw another clip of Jim Rogers with him stating the IMF are selling their gold and he would currently not be a holder of gold with all that supply available, he said he would be a holder of oil.

[vedantafx]

I'm a bit confused, maybe I read this wrongly, I just saw another clip of Jim Rogers with him stating the IMF are selling their gold and he would currently not be a holder of gold with all that supply available, he said he would be a holder of oil.

Arran, just saw that interview. Jim is a good guy. He is a longterm investor. Jim's views on gold are that right now might not be the best time to buy unitl we see how the IMF ploy plays out. However, he said if they drive the price down, then he reckons you better buy it then as that will be one of the last great buying opportunities in this bullmarket. I would wait to see, you may be able to get it at under 700USD, maybe less. However, gold is the sort of thing to accumulate over a period of time as this bull market will last another decade or so, IMHO. 

[churchill]

A lot of pessimists on Gold now - So perhaps the tide is turning up ?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/maund041109.html

[ArranP]

I'm a bit confused, maybe I read this wrongly, I just saw another clip of Jim Rogers with him stating the IMF are selling their gold and he would currently not be a holder of gold with all that supply available, he said he would be a holder of oil.

Arran, just saw that interview. Jim is a good guy. He is a longterm investor. Jim's views on gold are that right now might not be the best time to buy unitl we see how the IMF ploy plays out. However, he said if they drive the price down, then he reckons you better buy it then as that will be one of the last great buying opportunities in this bullmarket. I would wait to see, you may be able to get it at under 700USD, maybe less. However, gold is the sort of thing to accumulate over a period of time as this bull market will last another decade or so, IMHO. 

As a Brit, one reason of logic that prevents me from buying gold is, I believe (maybe incorrectly) as gold increases (and oil for that matter) the USD weakens, therefore leaving the position from GBP perspective almost neutral, am I mistaken in this assumption? as I would like to be able to benefit from the situation with gold...

Edited April 14, 2009 by ArranP

[Naam]

As a Brit, one reason of logic that prevents me from buying gold is, I believe (maybe incorrectly) as gold increases (and oil for that matter) the USD weakens, therefore leaving the position from GBP perspective almost neutral, am I mistaken in this assumption? as I would like to be able to benefit from the situation with gold...

your logic is... shall we say "seriously flawed"? because your assumptions are plain wrong . without going into details take a look at some (approximate) figures.

approximate cost of one ounce of gold in Sterling

feb 2001 = £ ~220.-

jun 2006 = £ ~335.-

jun 2008 = £ ~500.-

apr 2009 = £ ~600.-

[ArranP]

As a Brit, one reason of logic that prevents me from buying gold is, I believe (maybe incorrectly) as gold increases (and oil for that matter) the USD weakens, therefore leaving the position from GBP perspective almost neutral, am I mistaken in this assumption? as I would like to be able to benefit from the situation with gold...

your logic is... shall we say "seriously flawed"? because your assumptions are plain wrong . without going into details take a look at some (approximate) figures.

approximate cost of one ounce of gold in Sterling

feb 2001 = £ ~220.-

jun 2006 = £ ~335.-

jun 2008 = £ ~500.-

apr 2009 = £ ~600.-

Thanks Naam, for clearly presenting this argument. At first glance it appears to dispell any concern with buying from a GBP perspective.

I am of the current belief that USD will weaken against GBP between 10 to 15% in the next 6 - 12 months. Therefore to be a gold investor I would need a rise from gold of at least this before making any money from the transaction.

The IMF gold selling should push the gold price down, which then maybe would make a good opportunity to buy gold.

From a GBP perspective buying gold at say $850 when GBP/USD is at 1.47 would require gold to rise above $1000 before making any money if the USD were to weaken 15% to 1.70 GBP/USD.

On the Longer term, I don't think its a concern because currencies remain relative to each other whilst gold, I believe should push on upwards, but at least for the next 12 months I am unsure.....

[churchill]

If you want to invest you could consider a fund such as Blackrock Gold and General which invests in Mining Shares globally , it has quite a high % in the US but also , Australia , Canada , South Africa , Russia and China - so you are spreading your currency risk .

I don't believe the IMF sale will have much of an inpact on gold prices , as sales will be within the agreed limit already set up by central banks , and it may well be sold to one or more central banks that have expressed an interest in raising their gold reserves ie China or Russia .

Gold prices could weaken from here but they could also go higher - nobody really knows - The best thing , if you are unsure when to invest ,may be to set up a direct debit and purchase monthly , which will average out your price over time .

[yabaaaa]

I think this is a very funny example of how you need to do your own research and not reply on outside authorities to tell you it will be alright.Especially governments...here is a great list of quotes from during the Great Depression, the rhetoric from the leaders and Keynesian style economists during 2008 is similar to 1929. Here is a chart to pinpoint the DOW during the time of each quote...enjoy.

"We will not have any more crashes in our time."- John Maynard Keynes in 1927 

 

"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."

- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928 

"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."

- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928 

 

"No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."

- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928 

 

"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."

- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929 

 

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."

- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929 

"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."

- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929 

"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."

- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929 

"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices." 

- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929 

 

"This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."

- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929 

"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted" 

- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929 

"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom." 

- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929 

 

"The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."

- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929 

"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."

- The Times of London, November 2, 1929 

"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before." 

- Business Week, November 2, 1929 

"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..." 

- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929 

 

"... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall." 

- HES, November 10, 1929 

"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most." 

- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929 

"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."

- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929 

"Financial storm definitely passed."

- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929 

 

"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress." 

- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929 

"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence." 

- Herbert Hoover, December 1929 

"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."

- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929 

 

"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright." 

- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930 

 

"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..." 

- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930 

 

"There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about." 

- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930 

 

"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity." 

- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930 

"... the outlook continues favorable..." 

- HES Mar 29, 1930 

 

"... the outlook is favorable..." 

- HES Apr 19, 1930 

 

"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us." 

- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930 

"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..." 

- HES May 17, 1930 

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."

- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930 

 

"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..." 

- HES June 28, 1930 

 

"... the present depression has about spent its force..." 

- HES, Aug 30, 1930 

 

"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression." 

- HES Nov 15, 1930 

 

"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible." 

- HES Oct 31, 1931 

 

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."

- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

And if this tells you only one thing its that all the experts and amateurs alike haven't a clue whats going to happen next.

[ChiangMaiFun]

with Thai Baht devaluing we should see a rise in GBP

[ArranP]

not that my feeling is right or wrong, but it is what it is and its leaning towward GBP strength against the USD :-)

Bob Parker thinks Equities will end 09 higher than todays level, going by that and in my experience as equities rise so does the "money flows" out of the USD, therefore weakening the USD and something similar to the JPY also.

[ArranP]

I think things are starting to turn for the USD, maybe all the additional printing of the dollar is causing this dollar weakness, and may also be due to money flows back out of the dollar into equities, as recently observed in stock indices rising and commodities. Six months ago alot of people we were really thinking the GBP was going to tank :-)

USD 1.58 for 1 GBP

THB 54.25 for 1 GBP

[GuestHouse]

Six months ago alot of people we were really thinking the GBP was going to tank :-)

Not just thinking it, falling about laughing at the prospect and telling us how with perfect timing they got out of GBP into $/Bht

I guess if the $ continues its slide or the GBP keeps improving they'll back telling us how they made the switch back again ... with perfect timing.

But we'll need to wait a while until the data allows for such perfect hindsight.

[ChiangMaiFun]

GBP now hit 54! heading Northwards - how long will it continue? thats a rise of nearly 10% from the low recently of 49 something - any ideas how long the rally will last?

[Naam]

Six months ago alot of people we were really thinking the GBP was going to tank :-)

Not just thinking it, falling about laughing at the prospect and telling us how with perfect timing they got out of GBP into $/Bht

I guess if the $ continues its slide or the GBP keeps improving they'll back telling us how they made the switch back again ... with perfect timing.

But we'll need to wait a while until the data allows for such perfect hindsight.

you are a misanthropic spoilsport GH! isn't it refreshing to hear claims "when <insert asset> was at its absolute low i bet the ranch and the cash in Mom's cookie jar on it" and later "when i sold i made a killing and that evening i rang the bell in <insert name of bar> five times!"

[GuestHouse]

you are a misanthropic spoilsport GH! isn't it refreshing to hear claims "when <insert asset> was at its absolute low i bet the ranch and the cash in Mom's cookie jar on it" and later "when i sold i made a killing and that evening i rang the bell in <insert name of bar> five times!"

Well it would be nice to be in the bar when the bell is being rung in celebration of such financial wizardry - but I'd still make a point of leaving for more modest company before the financial wizard making such claims is asked to pay his bar bill.

I think there is a very good chance he'd suddenly start recommending 'Mutual Funds'!!

[lannarebirth]

Six months ago alot of people we were really thinking the GBP was going to tank :-)

Not just thinking it, falling about laughing at the prospect and telling us how with perfect timing they got out of GBP into $/Bht

I guess if the $ continues its slide or the GBP keeps improving they'll back telling us how they made the switch back again ... with perfect timing.

But we'll need to wait a while until the data allows for such perfect hindsight.

6 months ago was looking for a 136 low, and that's what we got. 3 months ago was looking for a double bottom and that's what we got. At the top, was looking for a top and that's what we got. YMMV

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=1639449

[ChiangMaiFun]

Trasferred at 54.30 up from sub 50.00 a short while ago... its not soooo bad - I think if anyone has pounds to transfer do it now.

Thank God I didn't listen to the poster a little while ago who advised me on TV to transfer at 50.00 (because it will go down) I would have lost a very substantial six figure amount - still we all need a little luck na?

[ChiangMaiFun]

Hey when people start buying some shares you will see the Pound gain.At the moment in time i think that we will fall to around 42 Baht to the pound(ouch) but will recover in time IF you have time.

Makes the Leo more expensive FTB.

Trasferred at 54.30 up from sub 50.00 a short while ago... its not soooo bad - I think if anyone has pounds to transfer do it now.

Thank God I didn't listen to the poster a little while ago who advised me on TV to transfer at 50.00 (because it will go down) I would have lost a very substantial six figure amount - still we all need a little luck na?

[GuestHouse]

Thank God I didn't listen to the poster a little while ago who advised me on TV to transfer at 50.00 (because it will go down) I would have lost a very substantial six figure amount - still we all need a little luck na?

Bht50/£ to Bht54.30/£ is a very substantial six figure amount - Correct me if I'm wrong, but during my two years ++ of living in Rome, I was under the impression that the Italian Lire had been replaced by the Euro?!

Edited May 22, 2009 by GuestHouse

[ChiangMaiFun]

Thank God I didn't listen to the poster a little while ago who advised me on TV to transfer at 50.00 (because it will go down) I would have lost a very substantial six figure amount - still we all need a little luck na?

Bht50/£ to Bht54.30/£ is a very substantial six figure amount - Correct me if I'm wrong, but during my two years ++ of living in Rome, I was under the impression that the Italian Lire had been replaced by the Euro?!

??? I would have lost 400,000 THB - you do not think that's substantial?

[ArranP]

I know, I was a bit puzzled, @ 1.46 GBP to USD, somone was so sure the GBP was going to devalue further that I was recomended counciling, but alas it came true, the GBP is recovering....