Tat To Explain Political Unrest To Cushion Negative Impact On Tourism

[george]

TAT moves to explain political unrest to cushion negative impact on tourism

BANGKOK: -- The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), a Thai government agency, is going all out to explain about political turmoil in Thailand to restore tourist confidence in visiting the kingdom, according to a senior TAT official.

TAT deputy governor Juthaporn Rerngronasa said the tourism agency closely monitored political unrest which might impact tourism and had coordinated with its overseas offices so that they could explain the situation in the country to intending foreign tourists.

A random survey was conducted and over 50 per cent of Thai tourists said the unrest did not affect their tourism plans because their travel destinations were not close to sites of possible unrest, mostly in Bangkok, Mrs. Juthaporn said.

The TAT chief said that the agency advised tourists to engage in activities such as shopping and visiting tourist spots which not in the areas where protest demonstrations occur.

However, a number of international tourism agencies and airlines had canceled visits to Thailand due some tourist-oriented provincial airports being closed, she said, adding that information given to TAT's overseas offices could improve the confidence level for tourism operators and tourists alike.

A report issued by Kasikorn Research Center said Thailand could lose as much as Bt70 billion in tourism revenue from foreign visitors if political unrest in the country continues into the fourth quarter of 2008.

The report said that violent demonstrations had already eroded confidence regarding safety among foreign tourists wishing to come to Thailand and that there are signs that Thailand could lose as much as Bt35 billion from tourist spending, even if the violence ends this month.

The kingdom earns about Bt600 billion annually from foreign tourist spending here.

-- TNA 2008-09-06

[Spee]

TAT moves to explain political unrest to cushion negative impact on tourism

TAT deputy governor Juthaporn Rerngronasa said the tourism agency closely monitored political unrest which might impact tourism and had coordinated with its overseas offices so that they could explain the situation in the country to intending foreign tourists.

-- TNA 2008-09-06

Forgive me for possibly stating the obvious, but in terms of the tourist industry, the current protest news might as well be 100 years old. If the tourism industry is reacting to the present to plan the future, then they are years behind the curve. They need to be looking 2, 3, 5, 10 years out and working with government, business and industry to plan accordingly.

Just like major championship golf courses, big tourist events, business conferences, etc., are planned years in advance. How can TAT possibly be looking outward to the next several years with all the focus on the current events? 2009 planning is history. 2010 planning is probably history as well. TAT needs to be looking at 2011 and beyond. If the government is incapable of forward looking and planning for stability 2-3 years from now, then <deleted> does TAT monitoring the present have to do with the price of tea in China?

[Martin]

Have some heart, 'Spee'. If you get them to look even as far as 5 years forward, you'll drive them into despair.

We are now in the situation where the people in the West who used to be the majority of the long-haul tourists are entering a major recession. That is, all those brickies etc who used to come to Patters are losing their jobs at the same time as their winter-heating bills are going sky high. Pubs in Blighty are closing left-right-and-centre, so Patters bars are a busted flush.

Thailand is looking forward at a steady reduction of incoming tourists of ten-per-cent per annum, at least. TAT wouldn't get patted on the back by their political masters for facing those obvious facts. (Even the UK Chancellor got 'hauled over the coals' for stating the bledding obvious, last week.)

Thailand has been lucky that the Westerners were deluded enough to think that house prices could only go up, and have increased their mortgages to get 'holiday money' to spend in Thailand. But the party is over now.

[h90]

TAT moves to explain political unrest to cushion negative impact on tourism

TAT deputy governor Juthaporn Rerngronasa said the tourism agency closely monitored political unrest which might impact tourism and had coordinated with its overseas offices so that they could explain the situation in the country to intending foreign tourists.

-- TNA 2008-09-06

Forgive me for possibly stating the obvious, but in terms of the tourist industry, the current protest news might as well be 100 years old. If the tourism industry is reacting to the present to plan the future, then they are years behind the curve. They need to be looking 2, 3, 5, 10 years out and working with government, business and industry to plan accordingly.

Just like major championship golf courses, big tourist events, business conferences, etc., are planned years in advance. How can TAT possibly be looking outward to the next several years with all the focus on the current events? 2009 planning is history. 2010 planning is probably history as well. TAT needs to be looking at 2011 and beyond. If the government is incapable of forward looking and planning for stability 2-3 years from now, then <deleted> does TAT monitoring the present have to do with the price of tea in China?

Well the TAT is anyhow not efficient. Look at their webpages. Try to find some valid informations. Lets think you plan 2 weeks holidays, you don't know something about Thailand and you would like to go Scuba Diving. Than try to find informations on the TAT webpage.....NOTHING

Another thing TAT can explain: Why do the tourist places get more and more dirty while the prices are going up all the time. That will have more impact than the political unrest in the long term.

[hammered]

Have some heart, 'Spee'. If you get them to look even as far as 5 years forward, you'll drive them into despair.

We are now in the situation where the people in the West who used to be the majority of the long-haul tourists are entering a major recession. That is, all those brickies etc who used to come to Patters are losing their jobs at the same time as their winter-heating bills are going sky high. Pubs in Blighty are closing left-right-and-centre, so Patters bars are a busted flush.

Thailand is looking forward at a steady reduction of incoming tourists of ten-per-cent per annum, at least. TAT wouldn't get patted on the back by their political masters for facing those obvious facts. (Even the UK Chancellor got 'hauled over the coals' for stating the bledding obvious, last week.)

Thailand has been lucky that the Westerners were deluded enough to think that house prices could only go up, and have increased their mortgages to get 'holiday money' to spend in Thailand. But the party is over now.

But there are plenty of oil-dollared up Russians, not to mention Chinese and Indians to replace the lesser numbers of westerners, and they are all in newly emerging middle classes who tend to spend and enjoy their newly discovered wealth rather than think of savings and gloom and doom. A changing market rather thana drying up one if Thailand can reap the benefit, which it probably will short of the odd civil war or two.

[wileycoyote]

Sad

[jamesjdaly]

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is going all out to explain about political turmoil in Thailand

They've got their work cut out for them!!

[geriatrickid]

But there are plenty of oil-dollared up Russians, not to mention Chinese and Indians to replace the lesser numbers of westerners, and they are all in newly emerging middle classes who tend to spend and enjoy their newly discovered wealth rather than think of savings and gloom and doom. A changing market rather thana drying up one if Thailand can reap the benefit, which it probably will short of the odd civil war or two.

If recession takes hold in west, china's exports plummet. Without FX generated from western customers, building demand weakens in China and less demand for resources like oil., cement. India's boom will fizzle too as markets for Indian goods and services wither. Russias oil reserves are what? 17 years or so? Again, if west hits recession, europe's demand for russian gas wanes. Leaves us back at the old reliable maket, the west. Unfortunately, the geniuses at TAT assumed they could replace westerners with others. Long term mistake. Should be trying to keep some of the westerners instead of driving them off.

Westerners tend to be less discerning than asians when it comes to visiting countries in chaos. The Chinese and Indians that appreciate the danger of chaos, will steer clear.

[nickh]

But there are plenty of oil-dollared up Russians, not to mention Chinese and Indians to replace the lesser numbers of westerners, and they are all in newly emerging middle classes who tend to spend and enjoy their newly discovered wealth rather than think of savings and gloom and doom. A changing market rather thana drying up one if Thailand can reap the benefit, which it probably will short of the odd civil war or two.

I wouldn't count on many Chinese.

China warning:

China's chief tourism body has warned against traveling to

Thailand after the state of emergency was declared in Bangkok.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/040908_Business...p2008_biz99.php

Asian nations urge citizens against Thailand travel

\ http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/SP64769.htm

Edited September 6, 2008 by nickh

[davejonesbkk]

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is going all out to explain about political turmoil in Thailand

Cool, can they explain it to me too cos I don't have a scooby.....

[hammered]

But there are plenty of oil-dollared up Russians, not to mention Chinese and Indians to replace the lesser numbers of westerners, and they are all in newly emerging middle classes who tend to spend and enjoy their newly discovered wealth rather than think of savings and gloom and doom. A changing market rather thana drying up one if Thailand can reap the benefit, which it probably will short of the odd civil war or two.

If recession takes hold in west, china's exports plummet. Without FX generated from western customers, building demand weakens in China and less demand for resources like oil., cement. India's boom will fizzle too as markets for Indian goods and services wither. Russias oil reserves are what? 17 years or so? Again, if west hits recession, europe's demand for russian gas wanes. Leaves us back at the old reliable maket, the west. Unfortunately, the geniuses at TAT assumed they could replace westerners with others. Long term mistake. Should be trying to keep some of the westerners instead of driving them off.

Westerners tend to be less discerning than asians when it comes to visiting countries in chaos. The Chinese and Indians that appreciate the danger of chaos, will steer clear.

I agree on the chaos thing, which will affect tourism, but I was actually referring to a general point by made someone else about tourism to Thailand. TAT did make a good decision when diversifying the newer markets imho, and it remains moot whether the western economic woes will actually impact China to such a high degree, or the Chinese economy has a degree of inbuilt protection. Economists are split on this with some maintaining it will only reduce Chinese GDP slightly. Anyone in the middle class from oil producing countries is going to remain cash rich for the foreseeable. Anyway we will see provided we dont have complete political meltdown.

[Tony Clifton]

A string of tourist and residing foreigner murders have also made it's way to international news, even involving policemen, border police, some of them still unresolved, that can't help.

[Jingthing]

Weren't they looking for more "quality" tourists over quantity anyway? So now they will get the quality of tourist that doesn't watch the news.

[Boater]

A random survey was conducted and over 50 per cent of Thai tourists said the unrest did not affect their tourism plans because their travel destinations were not close to sites of possible unrest, mostly in Bangkok, Mrs. Juthaporn said

Is it me or does it not state they only interviewed Thai Tourists ? which really does not give a reasonable spectrum on the situation ..

[IMA_FARANG]

TAT moves to explain political unrest to cushion negative impact on tourism

BANGKOK: -- The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), a Thai government agency, is going all out to explain about political turmoil in Thailand to restore tourist confidence in visiting the kingdom, according to a senior TAT official.

TAT deputy governor Juthaporn Rerngronasa said the tourism agency closely monitored political unrest which might impact tourism and had coordinated with its overseas offices so that they could explain the situation in the country to intending foreign tourists.

A random survey was conducted and over 50 per cent of Thai tourists said the unrest did not affect their tourism plans because their travel destinations were not close to sites of possible unrest, mostly in Bangkok, Mrs. Juthaporn said.

The TAT chief said that the agency advised tourists to engage in activities such as shopping and visiting tourist spots which not in the areas where protest demonstrations occur.

However, a number of international tourism agencies and airlines had canceled visits to Thailand due some tourist-oriented provincial airports being closed, she said, adding that information given to TAT's overseas offices could improve the confidence level for tourism operators and tourists alike.

A report issued by Kasikorn Research Center said Thailand could lose as much as Bt70 billion in tourism revenue from foreign visitors if political unrest in the country continues into the fourth quarter of 2008.

The report said that violent demonstrations had already eroded confidence regarding safety among foreign tourists wishing to come to Thailand and that there are signs that Thailand could lose as much as Bt35 billion from tourist spending, even if the violence ends this month.

The kingdom earns about Bt600 billion annually from foreign tourist spending here.

-- TNA 2008-09-06

1. TAT trying to explain the political unrest in Thailand? Good luck to them then, I doubt that at least 70% of the Thais living in Thailand can really explain it (and many of those simply don't much care, they just want to make a living). Certainly from the comments I've seen on this forum in the past week or so, most people who are commenting loud and long seem to have a lot of opinions about what's happening. but very little facts. That includes quite a few Farangs living in Thailand.

2. Be aware that, as they probably have to do, many embessies or condulates are issuing warning to their citizens about planned travel to Thailand due to possible political problems and protests in Thailand and Bangkok. The U.K., Singapore, and South Korea are three that I know have official warnings to citizens traveling to Thailand about possible problems. Probably the U.S. State Department is doing the same.

3. If TAT really wants to improve tourisim in Thailand, they can concentrate on providing better value for the money for those who come as tourists to Thailand. That would raise the number of satisfied tourists, and actually do more for tourism in the long run.

But that is just my opinion, and not many of those in power seem to be listening to anything I say anyhow. Why should they, I've only been coming to Thailand at least once a year since 1977. Quite often twice a year.

[LaoPo]

But there are plenty of oil-dollared up Russians, not to mention Chinese and Indians to replace the lesser numbers of westerners, and they are all in newly emerging middle classes who tend to spend and enjoy their newly discovered wealth rather than think of savings and gloom and doom. A changing market rather thana drying up one if Thailand can reap the benefit, which it probably will short of the odd civil war or two.

If recession takes hold in west, china's exports plummet. Without FX generated from western customers, building demand weakens in China and less demand for resources like oil., cement. India's boom will fizzle too as markets for Indian goods and services wither. Russias oil reserves are what? 17 years or so? Again, if west hits recession, europe's demand for russian gas wanes. Leaves us back at the old reliable maket, the west. Unfortunately, the geniuses at TAT assumed they could replace westerners with others. Long term mistake. Should be trying to keep some of the westerners instead of driving them off.

Westerners tend to be less discerning than asians when it comes to visiting countries in chaos. The Chinese and Indians that appreciate the danger of chaos, will steer clear.

It's indeed not so simple as Hammered think it is.

2007:

China: about 1 Million tourists to LOS and declined almost -3% versus 2006

India 500,000 increased +17,8% versus 2006 (506K versus 429K)

Russia 280,000 increased + 46,6% versus 2006 (279K versus 190K)

Thailand has a structural string of problems and TAT is a real joke. It's a bad organized entity and if you try to look upon their website most articles do not even have a date.... one has to guess WHEN it was written.

Also, TAT supplied every single month the newest details about INBOUND tourism; NO MORE since 2008.

The latest statistics one can find are those of 2007.

WHY are they withholding information if inbound tourism is so much UP ?

The recent political unrest, protests and the like are just an extra accelerator of the existing problems: worldwide economical decline/recession in some countries, oil prices and real estate/mortgage problems.

People have (to) cut into their holiday budgets and Thailand is one of the first to find out.

The hard way.

I remain with my prognosis that inbound tourism will show a decline/drop of between 15-20% versus 2007 (which had 14,4 Million*)

* This 14.4 Million 'tourists' however include also a number of 2 million 'tourists' from Malaysia and Laos

Really ?

On top of that there are MANY repeat tourists to Thailand (border crossings/visa runners) and people who are NOT tourists at all or does anyone believe that Myanmar sent 75,000 tourists to Thailand or that Laos sent 521,000 tourists (population 6,6 Million) and what about 108,000 tourists from dead-poor Cambodia ?

And....are there indeed 233,000 REAL tourists from Indonesia and almost 200,000 REAL tourists from the Philippines ?

My Guess ?

Thailand has no more than between 9 and 10 million REAL tourists.

Anybody ?

THAILAND_2007_tourist_numbers_res_1_12_1.XLS

LaoPo

[Airbus717]

But there are plenty of oil-dollared up Russians, not to mention Chinese and Indians to replace the lesser numbers of westerners, and they are all in newly emerging middle classes who tend to spend and enjoy their newly discovered wealth rather than think of savings and gloom and doom. A changing market rather thana drying up one if Thailand can reap the benefit, which it probably will short of the odd civil war or two.

If recession takes hold in west, china's exports plummet. Without FX generated from western customers, building demand weakens in China and less demand for resources like oil., cement. India's boom will fizzle too as markets for Indian goods and services wither. Russias oil reserves are what? 17 years or so? Again, if west hits recession, europe's demand for russian gas wanes. Leaves us back at the old reliable maket, the west. Unfortunately, the geniuses at TAT assumed they could replace westerners with others. Long term mistake. Should be trying to keep some of the westerners instead of driving them off.

Westerners tend to be less discerning than asians when it comes to visiting countries in chaos. The Chinese and Indians that appreciate the danger of chaos, will steer clear.

Many hotels in Thailand now wants Russian tourists because they stay longer (usually 14 days) and spend more money in hotel than westerners. And oil money goes to government so and has nothing to do with Russian tourists.

[CharlieB]

I'd say it's going to be hard to explain away the pictures and reports on western news sites about people shooting each other and running around with 2 foot knives. Put that together with the reports of airports etc being shut down and the huge fuel surcharge that Thai put on all tickets and you've got a recipe for no last minute tourists, cancellations and people changing their possible future plans of travelling to Thailand.

[kenk3z]

At the current level of protest activity, you can easily avoid the trouble spots. Just avoid wearing either red or yellow in public.

What disturbed me the most was the threat to cut all international telecommunications in and out of Thailand by CAT workers. I'm not going somewhere that's cut off from civilization. At that point I may as well vacation in Sudan.

kenk3z

[LaoPo]

But there are plenty of oil-dollared up Russians, not to mention Chinese and Indians to replace the lesser numbers of westerners, and they are all in newly emerging middle classes who tend to spend and enjoy their newly discovered wealth rather than think of savings and gloom and doom. A changing market rather thana drying up one if Thailand can reap the benefit, which it probably will short of the odd civil war or two.

If recession takes hold in west, china's exports plummet. Without FX generated from western customers, building demand weakens in China and less demand for resources like oil., cement. India's boom will fizzle too as markets for Indian goods and services wither. Russias oil reserves are what? 17 years or so? Again, if west hits recession, europe's demand for russian gas wanes. Leaves us back at the old reliable maket, the west. Unfortunately, the geniuses at TAT assumed they could replace westerners with others. Long term mistake. Should be trying to keep some of the westerners instead of driving them off.

Westerners tend to be less discerning than asians when it comes to visiting countries in chaos. The Chinese and Indians that appreciate the danger of chaos, will steer clear.

Many hotels in Thailand now wants Russian tourists because they stay longer (usually 14 days) and spend more money in hotel than westerners. And oil money goes to government so and has nothing to do with Russian tourists.

I never understand why people post something they can NOT confirm with real facts....

Russians stay 13,26 days versus average 15,26 for total Europeans but MOST Europeans stay more than 16 days !

Also, Russians do NOT spend a lot more than other Westerners; the difference between SOME countries is peanuts and certainly not the way you describe it.

Have a look for yourself:

Table_Summary_2007.xls

THAILAND_stay_1_5.XLS

LaoPo

[Maxi101]

But there are plenty of oil-dollared up Russians, not to mention Chinese and Indians to replace the lesser numbers of westerners, and they are all in newly emerging middle classes who tend to spend and enjoy their newly discovered wealth rather than think of savings and gloom and doom. A changing market rather thana drying up one if Thailand can reap the benefit, which it probably will short of the odd civil war or two.

If recession takes hold in west, china's exports plummet. Without FX generated from western customers, building demand weakens in China and less demand for resources like oil., cement. India's boom will fizzle too as markets for Indian goods and services wither. Russias oil reserves are what? 17 years or so? Again, if west hits recession, europe's demand for russian gas wanes. Leaves us back at the old reliable maket, the west. Unfortunately, the geniuses at TAT assumed they could replace westerners with others. Long term mistake. Should be trying to keep some of the westerners instead of driving them off.

Westerners tend to be less discerning than asians when it comes to visiting countries in chaos. The Chinese and Indians that appreciate the danger of chaos, will steer clear.

Many hotels in Thailand now wants Russian tourists because they stay longer (usually 14 days) and spend more money in hotel than westerners. And oil money goes to government so and has nothing to do with Russian tourists.

They might find out that to clean up the mess will be expensive .... ups

[Airbus717]

But there are plenty of oil-dollared up Russians, not to mention Chinese and Indians to replace the lesser numbers of westerners, and they are all in newly emerging middle classes who tend to spend and enjoy their newly discovered wealth rather than think of savings and gloom and doom. A changing market rather thana drying up one if Thailand can reap the benefit, which it probably will short of the odd civil war or two.

If recession takes hold in west, china's exports plummet. Without FX generated from western customers, building demand weakens in China and less demand for resources like oil., cement. India's boom will fizzle too as markets for Indian goods and services wither. Russias oil reserves are what? 17 years or so? Again, if west hits recession, europe's demand for russian gas wanes. Leaves us back at the old reliable maket, the west. Unfortunately, the geniuses at TAT assumed they could replace westerners with others. Long term mistake. Should be trying to keep some of the westerners instead of driving them off.

Westerners tend to be less discerning than asians when it comes to visiting countries in chaos. The Chinese and Indians that appreciate the danger of chaos, will steer clear.

Many hotels in Thailand now wants Russian tourists because they stay longer (usually 14 days) and spend more money in hotel than westerners. And oil money goes to government so and has nothing to do with Russian tourists.

I never understand why people post something they can NOT confirm with real facts....

Russians stay 13,26 days versus average 15,26 for total Europeans but MOST Europeans stay more than 16 days !

Also, Russians do NOT spend a lot more than other Westerners; the difference between SOME countries is peanuts and certainly not the way you describe it.

Have a look for yourself:

Table_Summary_2007.xls

THAILAND_stay_1_5.XLS

LaoPo

Well I've been working more than 10 years in a travel agency in Bangkok and my facts based on arrival from our company and what sales people in hotels says. Most of western tourists in our company book 4-7 days hotel accommodations when Russian tourists book for 10-14 days.. And based on what hotels says is that western tourist usually spend money outside of hotel when russians spend inside the hotel.

[geriatrickid]

Our arguments here are sort of like a the discussion of what's worse on a Thai ferry that has run into an oil tanker and that has caught fire. Is the ferry in trouble because of the collision, the fire, or the passengers running about on deck in panic because they realize the crew abandoned ship in the life boats and there are no life jackets?

How about this: There is a consensus in the comments that there will be a drop in tourism. Perhaps driven by economics, but for sure excerbated by political uncertainty. Diversification of visitor sources is a good thing. However, until the fundamentals of the tourist infrastructure and organization are set, aint nothing gonna change. On that we can all agree.

[onethailand]

Well I've been working more than 10 years in a travel agency in Bangkok and my facts based on arrival from our company and what sales people in hotels says. Most of western tourists in our company book 4-7 days hotel accommodations when Russian tourists book for 10-14 days.. And based on what hotels says is that western tourist usually spend money outside of hotel when russians spend inside the hotel.

Keep in mind a large proportion of European tourists come on packages organized from their home countries, or with local agencies that specialize in these packages - these are people you will never see in your own agency.

[JetsetBkk]

A random survey was conducted and over 50 per cent of Thai tourists said the unrest did not affect their tourism plans because their travel destinations were not close to sites of possible unrest, mostly in Bangkok, Mrs. Juthaporn said

Is it me or does it not state they only interviewed Thai Tourists ? which really does not give a reasonable spectrum on the situation ..

Good one! But I think they meant "Thailand tourists", i.e. people coming to Thailand. (But I think you knew that...)

[VegasVic]

Have some heart, 'Spee'. If you get them to look even as far as 5 years forward, you'll drive them into despair.

We are now in the situation where the people in the West who used to be the majority of the long-haul tourists are entering a major recession. That is, all those brickies etc who used to come to Patters are losing their jobs at the same time as their winter-heating bills are going sky high. Pubs in Blighty are closing left-right-and-centre, so Patters bars are a busted flush.

Thailand is looking forward at a steady reduction of incoming tourists of ten-per-cent per annum, at least. TAT wouldn't get patted on the back by their political masters for facing those obvious facts. (Even the UK Chancellor got 'hauled over the coals' for stating the bledding obvious, last week.)

Thailand has been lucky that the Westerners were deluded enough to think that house prices could only go up, and have increased their mortgages to get 'holiday money' to spend in Thailand. But the party is over now.

Once again Martin has basically hit the nail on the head! Thanks to billions in economic aid, some very hard working thias and a time of worlwide prosperity, Thailand and Phuket overcame what could have been a terrible hangover after the tsunami, and tourisim numbers were basically restored within two years. Then there was the military overthrow of the government at a time when the baht was appreciating at an unprecedented level, this caused a weak tourist season and gave pause to many long term tourists and people considering Thailand as a tourist destination or even a possible retirement haven. Thailand had its democratic elections and looked like they were on the path to repairing some of the damage done by the Military hunta, but an insideous economic influenza caught hold in the U.S. late last year and it has spread to Europe already and will eventually spread to Asia and hit economic powerhouses like China, Taiwan, Korea and India. As the financial and banking crisis, real estate crisis and rising inflation seem to be spreading around the globe, this tourist season looked to be a very poor one for the LOS, now with the advent of all this political unrest and the protesters demanding that the PM step down and the parliment be disolved or else there will be wide spread strikes throughout the country it appears that Thailand may have put the final nail in their tourist coffin. The TAT will continue to put as positive a spin on the current situation as possible (just as they should), but I fear that even they cannot turn the tide on this one.

[VegasVic]

Have some heart, 'Spee'. If you get them to look even as far as 5 years forward, you'll drive them into despair.

We are now in the situation where the people in the West who used to be the majority of the long-haul tourists are entering a major recession. That is, all those brickies etc who used to come to Patters are losing their jobs at the same time as their winter-heating bills are going sky high. Pubs in Blighty are closing left-right-and-centre, so Patters bars are a busted flush.

Thailand is looking forward at a steady reduction of incoming tourists of ten-per-cent per annum, at least. TAT wouldn't get patted on the back by their political masters for facing those obvious facts. (Even the UK Chancellor got 'hauled over the coals' for stating the bledding obvious, last week.)

Thailand has been lucky that the Westerners were deluded enough to think that house prices could only go up, and have increased their mortgages to get 'holiday money' to spend in Thailand. But the party is over now.

But there are plenty of oil-dollared up Russians, not to mention Chinese and Indians to replace the lesser numbers of westerners, and they are all in newly emerging middle classes who tend to spend and enjoy their newly discovered wealth rather than think of savings and gloom and doom. A changing market rather thana drying up one if Thailand can reap the benefit, which it probably will short of the odd civil war or two.

Yes indeed what about those Russians, Indians and Chinese! Lets take the Chinese first since in the long run they are the most important group. The Chinese middle class and upper middle class are (or in many cases "were" may be more appropriate) heavily invested in the Shanghai stock exchange, and since it hit its highs last fall the Shanghai exchange is down over 65% and still falling (thats quite a bite out of the family budget), then of course there is the added gremlin of nearly double digit inflation that has hit the Chinese people, so its not very likely that Thailand will be seeing an increase in Chinese tourists anytime soon. India is slightly different, I say that only because that India is suseptable to the worldwide economic virus, but like Korea it will be a slightly delayed reaction, so while it is possible that Indian and Korean tourisim could hold up this season, I would certainly keep an eye on it as it could prove to be the figuritive "canary in the coal mine". And now for the Russians The Russian stock market is also on a steep decline, but for vastly different reasons than the Chinese market. Mr. Putin's (oh wait a minute make tha Mr. Medvedev ) recent holiday incursion into the sovereign nation of Georgia and his failure to keep his word once again, along with his very unconcilliatory rhetoric has permanently damaged the Russian stock market and likely the future of Russian capitalisim. With that said I think there could very well be a strong contingent of Russians this tourist season, but depending on the Russians to make up for North American and European tourists creates a twofold problem: (1) Russia will increasingly become a one trick pony (oil), and if oil prices continue to deflate as worldwide demand decreases and nations across the globe go greener with biofuels, LNG, coal gasification and conservation, then many of those Russians will not have the disposable income in the out years to vacation in Thailand, (2) I found in my travels throuout Thailand that there is a universal distaste for Russian tourists, not only among most thais who have to deal with them, but with other farang expatriots and tourists alike. In particular I talked at length with a dozen or so couples-families (mostly Swedish, Danes and Brits) most of which had been taking regular holiday in Thailand for the past 15-20 years, and the same theme echoed in each of my discussions when the topic of what they called the "Russian invasion"came up. Each one of them told me virtually the same thing and that was that the Russians had ruined the Pattaya-Jomtien area where many of these folks use to spend some of their time but now they avoid it altogether, and they also said that Phuket was heading in the same direction as Patters. One of the Sweedish families I talked to who had been vacationing in the LOS for over 20 years said that they were heading for Ko Pi Pi when they leave Ko Chang because that was the one place that the Russians hadn't ruined yet, but they also mentioned that as much as they love Thailand and the Thai people if they find that Ko Pi Pi has gone the way of Pattaya and Phuket then they will have to consider a destination

other than Thailand for there future holidays. If I were running the TAT I would be very careful who I catered to and depended on for the future of Thai tourisim.

[LaoPo]

Yes indeed what about those Russians, Indians and Chinese! Lets take the Chinese first since in the long run they are the most important group. The Chinese middle class and upper middle class are (or in many cases "were" may be more appropriate) heavily invested in the Shanghai stock exchange, and since it hit its highs last fall the Shanghai exchange is down over 65% and still falling (thats quite a bite out of the family budget), then of course there is the added gremlin of nearly double digit inflation that has hit the Chinese people, so its not very likely that Thailand will be seeing an increase in Chinese tourists anytime soon. India is slightly different, I say that only because that India is suseptable to the worldwide economic virus, but like Korea it will be a slightly delayed reaction, so while it is possible that Indian and Korean tourisim could hold up this season, I would certainly keep an eye on it as it could prove to be the figuritive "canary in the coal mine". And now for the Russians The Russian stock market is also on a steep decline, but for vastly different reasons than the Chinese market. Mr. Putin's (oh wait a minute make tha Mr. Medvedev ) recent holiday incursion into the sovereign nation of Georgia and his failure to keep his word once again, along with his very unconcilliatory rhetoric has permanently damaged the Russian stock market and likely the future of Russian capitalisim. With that said I think there could very well be a strong contingent of Russians this tourist season, but depending on the Russians to make up for North American and European tourists creates a twofold problem: (1) Russia will increasingly become a one trick pony (oil), and if oil prices continue to deflate as worldwide demand decreases and nations across the globe go greener with biofuels, LNG, coal gasification and conservation, then many of those Russians will not have the disposable income in the out years to vacation in Thailand, (2) I found in my travels throuout Thailand that there is a universal distaste for Russian tourists, not only among most thais who have to deal with them, but with other farang expatriots and tourists alike. In particular I talked at length with a dozen or so couples-families (mostly Swedish, Danes and Brits) most of which had been taking regular holiday in Thailand for the past 15-20 years, and the same theme echoed in each of my discussions when the topic of what they called the "Russian invasion"came up. Each one of them told me virtually the same thing and that was that the Russians had ruined the Pattaya-Jomtien area where many of these folks use to spend some of their time but now they avoid it altogether, and they also said that Phuket was heading in the same direction as Patters. One of the Sweedish families I talked to who had been vacationing in the LOS for over 20 years said that they were heading for Ko Pi Pi when they leave Ko Chang because that was the one place that the Russians hadn't ruined yet, but they also mentioned that as much as they love Thailand and the Thai people if they find that Ko Pi Pi has gone the way of Pattaya and Phuket then they will have to consider a destination

other than Thailand for there future holidays. If I were running the TAT I would be very careful who I catered to and depended on for the future of Thai tourisim.

Really VV.....PLEASE, can't you just try to write in separate sentences ? Your Posts are almost unreadable for others.

Let me copy-and-paste your entire post and I'll show you what I mean.

In fact it is SO simple. If you finish a sentence: Press "Enter" and you will have a new line; hit it 2 times and you will get double space and with 'Backspace' you will return UP again. Just try it on an empty form or 'reply'.

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Yes indeed what about those Russians, Indians and Chinese! Lets take the Chinese first since in the long run they are the most important group.

The Chinese middle class and upper middle class are (or in many cases "were" may be more appropriate) heavily invested in the Shanghai stock exchange, and since it hit its highs last fall the Shanghai exchange is down over 65% and still falling (thats quite a bite out of the family budget), then of course there is the added gremlin of nearly double digit inflation that has hit the Chinese people, so its not very likely that Thailand will be seeing an increase in Chinese tourists anytime soon. (this is just ONE sentence...)

India is slightly different, I say that only because that India is suseptable to the worldwide economic virus, but like Korea it will be a slightly delayed reaction, so while it is possible that Indian and Korean tourisim could hold up this season, I would certainly keep an eye on it as it could prove to be the figuritive "canary in the coal mine".

And now for the Russians ohmy.gif The Russian stock market is also on a steep decline, but for vastly different reasons than the Chinese market.

Mr. Putin's (oh wait a minute make tha Mr. Medvedev laugh.gif ) recent holiday incursion into the sovereign nation of Georgia and his failure to keep his word once again, along with his very unconcilliatory rhetoric has permanently damaged the Russian stock market and likely the future of Russian capitalisim.

With that said I think there could very well be a strong contingent of Russians this tourist season, but depending on the Russians to make up for North American and European tourists creates a twofold problem:

(1) Russia will increasingly become a one trick pony (oil), and if oil prices continue to deflate as worldwide demand decreases and nations across the globe go greener with biofuels, LNG, coal gasification and conservation, then many of those Russians will not have the disposable income in the out years to vacation in Thailand,

(2) I found in my travels throuout Thailand that there is a universal distaste for Russian tourists, not only among most thais who have to deal with them, but with other farang expatriots and tourists alike. In particular I talked at length with a dozen or so couples-families (mostly Swedish, Danes and Brits) most of which had been taking regular holiday in Thailand for the past 15-20 years, and the same theme echoed in each of my discussions when the topic of what they called the "Russian invasion"came up.

Each one of them told me virtually the same thing and that was that the Russians had ruined the Pattaya-Jomtien area where many of these folks use to spend some of their time but now they avoid it altogether, and they also said that Phuket was heading in the same direction as Patters.

One of the Sweedish families I talked to who had been vacationing in the LOS for over 20 years said that they were heading for Ko Pi Pi when they leave Ko Chang because that was the one place that the Russians hadn't ruined yet, but they also mentioned that as much as they love Thailand and the Thai people if they find that Ko Pi Pi has gone the way of Pattaya and Phuket then they will have to consider a destination other than Thailand for there future holidays.

If I were running the TAT I would be very careful who I catered to and depended on for the future of Thai tourisim.

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You spend a lot of time writing your posts but I'm afraid that if you continue doing so and write such long sentences and without space between them, VERY FEW members will read them and I assume that's not what you wish to accomplish ?

Now, back on topic of tourism.

Maybe you should have a look here regarding tourism to Thailand.

In fact it's very simple:

2007:

China ca. 1 Million tourists and declining -3% versus 2006

India 500,000 +17,8% v 2006

Russia 280,000 +46,6% v. 2006

USA 623,000 and declining -2,66%

Tourism from Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore declined as well. Combined they are good for 4 Million tourists to Thailand and that's more than the whole of Europe, including Russia and Eastern European countries.

The 280,000 Russians can hardly be blamed by the people you mentioned as being the Russian Invasion ruining Pattaya/Jomtien. The Swedes outnumber them with 100,000 tourists and the UK 3 times as many.

THAILAND_2007_tourist_numbers_res_1_12_1.XLS International tourist arrivals in 2007 versus 2006

THAILAND_stay_1_5.XLS Average lenght of stay Jan-May in days of International tourists 2007 v 2006

However: I foresee a total drop of between 15-20% in total INBOUND Thai tourism for 2008.

The TAT numbers are painted; The 2007 number of 14,4 Million tourists include 2 Million 'tourists' from Malaysia and Laos alone.

Yeah...right.

LaoPo

[joe beets]

Well I for one had no trouble reading VegasVic's posts.

I understand and appreciate your point, but you may have overstated it.

And who're you gonna believe, real people or a bunch of numbers?

Maybe the Russians have, how shall I put this, a larger footprint than the statistics might lead one to believe..?

Perceptions are difficult to quantify, and even harder to dispel.

Peace

[grantbkk]

I am no fan of TAT. The billions of wasted Baht over the past several years could have gone to street repair of astrological services. In the end the executives of TAT, there families and underlings travel the world in search of enlightenment. The executives are appointed through the patronage system and their employees act as valets and assistants to keep their social calendars straight and to make dinner and show reservations. Has anyone thought to check if these people are actually qualified for the job? At Gulliver's Tavern in Bangkok you need a college degree, a real one, to serve drinks. The government should set the bar at least this high for TAT and its board of directors.

The roadshows, luxury travel and corruption at TAT are legend. Can anybody be surprised how badly they suck at anything they do? While it would be difficult for anyone to explain the political situation at the moment the TAT will spend millions on travel and entertainment to bring the good fight to travel agent throughout the world. These princes and princesses of TAT will stay in five star accommodations, fly first class and eat only in the best restaurants to let these tour operators know that everything is OK here and to ignore the world news and government travel warnings from their own leaders. The TAT leaders will then take in a play, musical or concert to calm their nerves after another hard one hour work day. I hope they feed their vassals (assistants) well.