Million Jobs Are At Risk In Thailand

[george]

Million jobs are at risk

FTI warns of recession effects on exports

BANGKOK: -- One million industrial jobs here could be lost to the global economic recession over the next several quarters, the Federation of Thai Industries warned yesterday.

"Factories now operate just five days per week instead of six days due to fewer [export] orders, which will likely drop at least 30 per cent year on year," said Thaveekij Jaturajarernkul, chairman of the FTI's labour committee.

"Consequently, 15 to 20 per cent of the workforce is expected to be laid off at the start of 2009," he said.

As their overseas customers cut back, manufacturers should reduce their production shifts and overtime payments to employees, he said.

The garment, electric and electrical appliance, ceramic and furniture industries will be among those most at risk to the global slump, he added.

Industry currently employs about 6 million people.

Dusit Nontanakorn, vice chairman of the Board of Trade, said the economy would be hit hard by the worldwide downturn over the next six to 24 months.

"Tourism has already taken a beating. Next are the export-oriented industries. They will have to adjust business plans drastically to survive the recession.

"Exporters that had tapped the high-end markets may have to shift to the medium segment, while those in the medium segment may have to shift to the lower-end markets," he said.

"However, we will face fierce competition from China and Vietnam at the bottom," he said.

The private sector will have to help itself, as the government is not addressing the problems triggered by the global crisis adequately, he said.

"It's like we have cancer, but the government says it's not that serious so just painkillers are prescribed. We're dealing with the situation improperly," he said.

Pramon Suthivong, chairman of the Board of Trade, said the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce would wrap up a comprehensive study on the global recession's impacts on the economy in the middle of next month, with brainstorming sessions following to help industries cope with the dire consequences predicted.

Thaveekij of the FTI warned that new college graduates would also find the employment market tough next year, as prospects for getting hired would be rather dim.

Thailand churns out 700,000 to 800,000 graduates annually.

However, Somchai Jitsuchon, research director of the Thailand Development Research Institute, was optimistic, saying that if the economy could manage to grow by at least 3 per cent next year, new workers coming onto the market could be absorbed.

Tanit Sorat, chairman of the FTI's committee on transport and logistics, said the economy would likely slow to 3.8 to 4 per cent in 2009.

"Tourism may suffer a big drop in revenues of up to 50 per cent next year, if the domestic political chaos is not ended and if the border conflict with Cambodia continues," he said.

The government should rush its economic stimulus package worth Bt1.2 trillion into action as soon as possible.

"Besides the economic stimulus, the private sector wants to see more stable politics," he said.

-- The Nation 2008-10-28

[geriatrickid]

Finally, someone says it like it is. Hopefully, Dusit Nontanakorn will have slapped some sense into the people that can do something to mitigate the fallout.

It took alot of guts to speak the truth.

[goonerthegooner]

"Tourism may suffer a big drop in revenues of up to 50 per cent next year, if the domestic political chaos is not ended and if the border conflict with Cambodia continues," he said.

Not a truer word said,I think this year will be a total wash out for Tourism,have had many e-mails and read many story's about cancellations,from people all over the world deciding not too come Thailand,after this years upheaval.

It cannot get much lower or can it??

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Does that mean a million people moving back into their home village? Move over and put a bit more water in the soup.

At least the Thai familys look after there own. When that happens in other countries it means more people sleeping under the bridge or the lucky ones sleep in their car in some parking lot.

I'd rather be in LOS.

[PeaceBlondie]

We usually see the growth of the economy seen as a measure of goodness. I doubt that's always wise. In a country with zero population rate of increase, in a country that churns out uni graduates who are unprepared to work well in a developing economy ruled by a conservative elite who has not taught them how to think, maybe it is best to have no growth.

[Scott]

Ditto PB, ditto. They do like their education here, especially when it's not mixed with learning!

I think the economic future of a lot of places is going to suffer a great deal. Unfortunately here, it means more people with more time to be unhappy about the political situation and that might lead to greater concerns than the economy.

[Seneque]

However, Somchai Jitsuchon, research director of the Thailand Development Research Institute, was optimistic, saying that if the economy could manage to grow by at least 3 per cent next year, new workers coming onto the market could be absorbed

And government agencies still don't get it ... !!!

Keeping the rates (lending and exchange) hight will surely help

[jackr]

I'd rather be in LOS.

[coalminer]

"It's like we have cancer, but the government says it's not that serious so just painkillers are prescribed. We're dealing with the situation improperly," he said.

This man should be voted for the Nobel price next year for his insight in Thai economy.

After thinking about it, is he a REAL Thai?

[george]

Global crisis begins to affect Thailand's real economic sector

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's real economic sector has begun to receive a heavier impact from the global economic crisis, according to a veteran stock analyst.

Kongkiat Opaswongkarn, president of the Securities Analysts Association, said the ongoing financial crisis is regarded the world's most severe bubble burst in 70 years.

He said he believed there would not be a similar eonomic upheavel of the same severity in the next 20-30 years.

Mr. Kongkiat conceded that the financial institutions crisis in the United States had already spread extensively to the real economic sector on a global basis.

Thailand is no exception as its real economic sector had begun to take the impact with a heavier toll of the crisis.

It is a worrying situation to which the state sector must pay close attention, said Dr. Kongkiat.

-- TNA 2008-10-28

[cymruambyth1]

My friend was over here last week on holiday. He operates a travel company in the UK that at its peak sent 12,000 people a year here - EVERY year.

He said that the High Rollers were all still booking for next year, but the average-Joe holidaymakers (those trying to get here for 14 days for around 1,000 Stg per person) have all dried up.

He is amazed at the lack of foresight by the Thai hoteliers who just think the problem will not rear its ugly head here.

Watch this space...

[Locturian]

It is also terrible for us living here, getting some money from abroad I will get 10% less this month, than the last, and 15% less than 2 months ago... Getting less baht for your foreign currency is not gonna help people investing money in the country dammit.

I think the Thai goverment has the same mentality as the development (houses) builders in Thailand. Oh - "So no tourist are buying our houses? Well, now it has been for sale a long time, and we used money advertising it... Let's raise the price! That will help..." (And that IS the case, at least here in Hua Hin...)

Are we ever going to see an end to this giant mess? Oh - Btw, THANK YOU AMERICA for putting us all in this giant shithole... I hope China will take your place as world power... We can't do any worse - Unless ofcourse, Obama is elected and your country will finally get some fair (and normal) agenda on the line... Gosh...

[toptuan]

THANK YOU AMERICA for putting us all in this giant shithole

Oh puleeze. Every country had a free choice to connect themselves economically to the spider's web.

It's just as irresponsible as countries which keep relying on oil imports as their primary engine of domestic transportation and other energy needs. When they do the same in financial markets, then learn to disconnect from the grid (sufficiency economy?) or suck it up.

Capitalism is a balance of risk and opportunity. Win a few. Lose a few.

Edited October 28, 2008 by toptuan

[toptuan]

I hope China will take your place as world power...

Yeah baby, maybe they could then keep pumping out those toxins into the world's food supply, unchecked!

Unbridled greed is a pandemic problem worldwide, whether it's an unscrupulous powdered-milk factory owner or a Wall Street broker.

[Locturian]

We all (most countries) borrowed money from the financial institutions in America. They got greedy, they made up some money, and it all fell apart. We lost. "Too bad" you say? Well - If you bought a house, and it just fell apart on top of you, and there was no-one to cover it, would you still think "oh, too bad" ? (well, unless you have enough money to just buy another one...)

I cannot be satisfied or "mellow" by the fact that I am now getting fewer money in my pocket Someone has to get the blame, and the obvious one is the US, as they are the ones whom got greedy and went down the gutter!

Other than that, I hope tourist will come back to Thailand and put some money in the country - If their main reason for not coming is the issues in BKK, then it's silly. But sadly (AGAIN), it's prolly due to the financial recession spreading across the world... I pray for an end to all this....

[ralfbkk]

It is also terrible for us living here, getting some money from abroad I will get 10% less this month, than the last, and 15% less than 2 months ago... Getting less baht for your foreign currency is not gonna help people investing money in the country dammit.

Oh - Btw, THANK YOU AMERICA for putting us all in this giant shithole... I hope China will take your place as world power... We can't do any worse - Unless ofcourse, Obama is elected and your country will finally get some fair (and normal) agenda on the line... Gosh...

I understand that you are upset. Your loss, can be other people gain. Being in the Logistics Business the falling EUR / CHF ExRate does help importing in to the Kingdom. Over the past weeks we see an increase of imports from the EUR Zone and Switzerland, which is a good sign, meaning that Thai Importers still have confidence in buying.

On your Thank you Comment to America I like to suggest to look a bit deeper in to details. Have you been complaining over the past 4 -5 years when the market was doing well? Recessions will consolidate the market and we will see (sooner or later) that China has lots of (yet) unknown problems too. Their bubble will burst and this is just a matter of time. As much as it hurts but we have not reached the buttom yet and a consolidation of the market is not in sight (yet). Not only us, the Americans, bought shares on credit and were forced to sell in a falling market. Hong Kong and Tokyo is just experiencing the same as we speak. It always starts somewhere and our economies are connected globally. Everyone, including the Europeans, invested in the US Housing Market as they hoped for good returns. It is always easy to blame someone in a situation like this, however it is more important to prepare together for a recession, which is just around the corner (for us here in Thailand).

[Lancelot]

Are we ever going to see an end to this giant mess? Oh - Btw, THANK YOU AMERICA for putting us all in this giant shithole... I hope China will take your place as world power... We can't do any worse - Unless ofcourse, Obama is elected and your country will finally get some fair (and normal) agenda on the line... Gosh...

Ah, another American basher...

But your right of course, the world was a perfect place before America became an independent country. no European wars, no Crusades, never a financial crisis...

I hope you get your wish about China becomming the dominant world power. They have never, ever made a mistake and they are truly a kinder and gentler people. No greed there whatsoever.

Have a nice life

[midas]

So if more and more people in Thailand are saying this, would anyone like to

guess at what point they will be forced to revise their current monetary policy

on keeping the baht so strong ?

Edited October 28, 2008 by midas

[Locturian]

Are we ever going to see an end to this giant mess? Oh - Btw, THANK YOU AMERICA for putting us all in this giant shithole... I hope China will take your place as world power... We can't do any worse - Unless ofcourse, Obama is elected and your country will finally get some fair (and normal) agenda on the line... Gosh...

Ah, another American basher...

But your right of course, the world was a perfect place before America became an independent country. no European wars, no Crusades, never a financial crisis...

I hope you get your wish about China becomming the dominant world power. They have never, ever made a mistake and they are truly a kinder and gentler people. No greed there whatsoever.

Have a nice life

Hey, it's agreed on most fronts that the current recession has the American collapse to blame... The European money houses fell as well, as they are connected to the Americans... Whether you like it or not, it DID start in the US.

On my China note, i wasn't being serious. I don't want to see a communist country with stright censorship as the biggest power in the world But - They are still the fastest growing economy in the world, so they must be doing something right, something the US could perhaps learn from. Greed is an ugly thing, and greed is the cornerstone in this entire mess.

As things are now, I agree that a recession must be coming to Thailand in a very near future. The missing income from the tourism, and the recession in US/Europe putting a halt to exports from Thailand, can only end in a recession. What a recession in Thailand looks like, I do not know, and what effect it would have on us foreign guys, do not know as well.

The only way to move forward is to learn from ones mistakes. And the problems we are in now, should be a big cleanser troughout. As I said, I hope it will be over very soon....

[Locturian]

So if more and more people in Thailand are saying this, would anyone like to

guess at what point they will be forced to revise their current monetary policy

on keeping the baht so strong ?

Not anytime soon? That would mean the people in power (those with money), would have less buying power abroad... As I mentioned earlier, I also hope they would devaluate the Baht so investment and buying would start again...

[mrbojangles]

Other than that, I hope tourist will come back to Thailand and put some money in the country - If their main reason for not coming is the issues in BKK, then it's silly.

I would imagine that the reason for most people not visiting Thailand (as well as many other holiday destinations) as well as not splashing out on other "luxeries" in their home countries, is the fact that their homes are worth upto 25% less, than a couple of years ago and the uncertainty surrounding the security of their own jobs.

Obviously, many people will still go on holiday this year but undoubtedley, the tourism market will shrink globally. It's the countries who can think outside the box and offer the tourist better "value for money" who will gain the biggest market share. Unfortunately, i don't think Thailand will be a winner in this, as they can't take their heads out of the sand and are in total denial of what is happening.

They just think "Farang rich, they always come back"........................ Until "where Farang go?"

[Thai at Heart]

Are we ever going to see an end to this giant mess? Oh - Btw, THANK YOU AMERICA for putting us all in this giant shithole... I hope China will take your place as world power... We can't do any worse - Unless ofcourse, Obama is elected and your country will finally get some fair (and normal) agenda on the line... Gosh...

Ah, another American basher...

But your right of course, the world was a perfect place before America became an independent country. no European wars, no Crusades, never a financial crisis...

I hope you get your wish about China becomming the dominant world power. They have never, ever made a mistake and they are truly a kinder and gentler people. No greed there whatsoever.

Have a nice life

Hey, it's agreed on most fronts that the current recession has the American collapse to blame... The European money houses fell as well, as they are connected to the Americans... Whether you like it or not, it DID start in the US.

On my China note, i wasn't being serious. I don't want to see a communist country with stright censorship as the biggest power in the world But - They are still the fastest growing economy in the world, so they must be doing something right, something the US could perhaps learn from. Greed is an ugly thing, and greed is the cornerstone in this entire mess.

As things are now, I agree that a recession must be coming to Thailand in a very near future. The missing income from the tourism, and the recession in US/Europe putting a halt to exports from Thailand, can only end in a recession. What a recession in Thailand looks like, I do not know, and what effect it would have on us foreign guys, do not know as well.

The only way to move forward is to learn from ones mistakes. And the problems we are in now, should be a big cleanser troughout. As I said, I hope it will be over very soon....

Well China has had stellar growth for a long while now and have stored up a huge imbalance in their USD holdings to maintain the yuan level. Just wait and see what happens to the country when the demand for their disproportionately cheap exports drops in the next few months.

Factories there are closing all over the place and there are going to be hundreds of thousands of displaced low wage workers out of jobs around the eastern seaboard production centres. They may have been getting the growth, but anything much below 10% growth and they can't absorb new workers into the marketplace but meanwhile there are 600mn rural farmers. Reported numbers show GDP growth dropped below 10% for the first time in ages last month. Property prices are dropping rapidly with for sale signs hanging in thousands of windows of newly finished apartments. The stock market there has taken an absolute hammering and whilst we can say the same is true of the rest of the world, how many companies on that market had crazy price earnings multiples that the average Joe/Wong on the street had never understood. The system is no better at wealth creation (in fact I believe it is demonstrably worse) than any other country in the world. Just see how the little man got shafted by the IPO of Petrochina.

I visit there often and one year ago to see people sitting in offices day trading throughout the day was amazing. Many people loaded their life savings into absolutely enormous asset bubbles and they have lost it. The govt may have got something right, but they have got it no more right than the rest of the world.

[Lancelot]

Well China has had stellar growth for a long while now and have stored up a huge imbalance in their USD holdings to maintain the yuan level. Just wait and see what happens to the country when the demand for their disproportionately cheap exports drops in the next few months.

I visit there often and one year ago to see people sitting in offices day trading throughout the day was amazing. Many people loaded their life savings into absolutely enormous asset bubbles and they have lost it. The govt may have got something right, but they have got it no more right than the rest of the world.

China has had stellar growth, no one is saying otherwise. However China's huge economic engine is built on exports and for it to continue they need buyers. For the time being, I think the US consumer is unable to keep the Chinese export boom growing. Maybe the Europeans can take up the slack and import more.

Lets face it, we -the world- are all in this together and economic problems in one country/region affects all. Personally, I am delighted when China/Asia/Europe are successful-maybe we (USA) can increase our exports to them

Edited October 28, 2008 by Lancelot

[Locturian]

I visit there often and one year ago to see people sitting in offices day trading throughout the day was amazing. Many people loaded their life savings into absolutely enormous asset bubbles and they have lost it. The govt may have got something right, but they have got it no more right than the rest of the world.

Well, ofcourse China is not left out of this crisis. When export drops due to lower demand from abroad, then jobs are lost and families suffer. But I still believe that China has a stronger economy than the US and can better cope with the losses. Also, it is not affecting the peoples homes in the same way as it is the Americans, as the morgages in America is so completely silly in their structures. Which is the reason for so many forclosures there at this time. I would be happy to elaborate on this, if you wish

The population in China has a totally different working mentality than we do, and a different basis of life. They are communists, and they work (many of them) 18 hours a day. They spend upwards of 75% on their homes. Based on the willpower of the common man, I think China will pull out better than most...

[Thai at Heart]

I visit there often and one year ago to see people sitting in offices day trading throughout the day was amazing. Many people loaded their life savings into absolutely enormous asset bubbles and they have lost it. The govt may have got something right, but they have got it no more right than the rest of the world.

Well, ofcourse China is not left out of this crisis. When export drops due to lower demand from abroad, then jobs are lost and families suffer. But I still believe that China has a stronger economy than the US and can better cope with the losses. Also, it is not affecting the peoples homes in the same way as it is the Americans, as the morgages in America is so completely silly in their structures. Which is the reason for so many forclosures there at this time. I would be happy to elaborate on this, if you wish

The population in China has a totally different working mentality than we do, and a different basis of life. They are communists, and they work (many of them) 18 hours a day. They spend upwards of 75% on their homes. Based on the willpower of the common man, I think China will pull out better than most...

I think this is a pretty simplistic way of looking at it. I have many colleagues in China who have multiple apartments they rent to people and the values are plumetting. Every city is littered with unoccupied finished property and people are losing their a**. There was an amazing story in one city of one individual who had managed to mortgage himself to obtain over 150 properties alone. The younger generation of metropolitan Chinese is about as communist as J Edgar Hoover. They started off cautious, but everyone I met there under the age of 40 was plumbing big cash (often borrowed) into property and the stock market.

Of course, family is important to them, so important that in one generation Chinese New Year celebrations will consist of single unmarried men and women sitting on their own without any siblings. The worlds largest growth market for Porsches and Rolex's is China. Just land in Shanghai or Beijing and see the lines of Cayennes and 500sl picking up families. They have generated some wealth and they are flaunting it more than the London yuppies of the 80's.

Economically stronger? The dislocation in China may well be worse in China because the money was never put in the right places in the first place. As for the country born seamstresses and shoe makers on 20 rmb a day, home is a very long way away for them.

[Ricardo]

So if more and more people in Thailand are saying this, would anyone like to

guess at what point they will be forced to revise their current monetary policy

on keeping the baht so strong ?

When the poo-yais complete the transfer, of their Thai cash into hard-currency (if that's still the correct term ... with the Baht so un-naturally strong) , then the crash will come.

Until then, the BoT will continue to follow orders, and spend its reserves keeping the Baht strong against the dollar. The damage to the economy, and a chance to mitigate it a little, is being ignored.

And it will of course be the foreigners who are to blame, for the eventual crash, when it comes.

Hold onto your 'tin-hats' !

[Chang_paarp]

Million jobs are at risk

FTI warns of recession effects on exports

BANGKOK: -- One million industrial jobs here could be lost to the global economic recession over the next several quarters, the Federation of Thai Industries warned yesterday.

"Factories now operate just five days per week instead of six days due to fewer [export] orders, which will likely drop at least 30 per cent year on year," said Thaveekij Jaturajarernkul, chairman of the FTI's labour committee.

"Consequently, 15 to 20 per cent of the workforce is expected to be laid off at the start of 2009," he said.

As their overseas customers cut back, manufacturers should reduce their production shifts and overtime payments to employees, he said.

<<snip>>

-- The Nation 2008-10-28

Ah!

Thailand the hub of unemployment.

[junkofdavid2]

Crime rate will shoot up significantly. A lot of the crime will be done onto farang.

[khunjamespittman]

We all (most countries) borrowed money from the financial institutions in America. They got greedy, they made up some money, and it all fell apart. We lost. "Too bad" you say? Well - If you bought a house, and it just fell apart on top of you, and there was no-one to cover it, would you still think "oh, too bad" ? (well, unless you have enough money to just buy another one...)

I cannot be satisfied or "mellow" by the fact that I am now getting fewer money in my pocket Someone has to get the blame, and the obvious one is the US, as they are the ones whom got greedy and went down the gutter!

Other than that, I hope tourist will come back to Thailand and put some money in the country - If their main reason for not coming is the issues in BKK, then it's silly. But sadly (AGAIN), it's prolly due to the financial recession spreading across the world... I pray for an end to all this....

That is a rather simplistic post. Need I remind you that only the greedy are hurt. If no other countries had bought the very risky derivatives from the US financial sector with hopes of reaping great profits, the financial meltdown would not have even felt in those countries, with the one exception that countries depending on the US money importing their products would have seen a reduction of their exports because the US would have less money to purchase foreign products. GREED was and is the problem in whatever country it exists.

[coalminer]

And it will of course be the foreigners who are to blame, for the eventual crash, when it comes.

No, no, no, no ....

You've got it all wrong.

The only one who is to blame for the many job losses and the financial crisis is THAKSIN and the PPP.

Many Thaivisa members who are also PAD members will confirm that.